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CU @ Toledo - Write up

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by drew6236, Sep 10, 2009.

  1. drew6236

    drew6236 Club Member Club Member

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    Since last week's write-up was so well received. :lol:

    He has another play on the CU game this week...

    Friday, September 11


    Colorado Buffaloes -3.5 (10 Units)

    The Colorado Buffaloes were completely embarrassed in their opening game of the season last week against the rival Colorado State Rams and not only is Dan Hawkins on his last straw as the head coach of this University but his son Cody will probably be swimming with the college football fishes just as fast if he doesn't get his game together in a hurry. I bet on Colorado State +10 last week and won. So listen to me when I ask you to calm down, take a breath and give the Buffaloes a second chance. The matchups were bad last week and we all knew it was way too many points for a rivalry game like that. I was one of the first to say that if Hawkins lost last week's game that he would be one more loss away from being done as head coach of the Buffaloes. Well time to show us what you are made of Dan. Colorado went 0-4 on the road last season losing at Kansas by 16, losing at Missouri by 58, losing at Texas A&M by 7 and losing at Nebraska by 9. All as underdogs. This is a big game for the program and Hawkins has a big chance to right the ship before Conference play starts on October 10. The Buffaloes have an easy home game against Wyoming next week and depending on how they do at West Virginia after their BYE week, they could hit the Texas game 3-1. Not bad at all. Colorado comes into this game off a pitiful offensive performance that saw them put only 17 points on the board off 251.0 total yards of offense and 4.0 yards per play. Well things can only get better against a horrendous Toledo defense that allowed 52 points on the road against Purdue last week and that allowed 535.0 total yards of offense on 8.0 yards per play. Expect Colorado to open things up. RB Rodney Stewart was great for Colorado in his 6 times carrying the ball and I expect him to go off for 150+ in this game against a Toledo defense that got torched for 315.0 rushing yards last week on 8.1 yards per carry. An effective running attack should help QB Cody Hawkins who completed a decent 58.5% of his 41 pass attempts last week for 222 passing yards, 1 Touchdown and 1 Interception. Wasn't his fault. Toledo's defense allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt last week, they were absolutely torched and if Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau knows what he is doing, he is going to dial up big play after big play here. The Rockets have an aggressive secondary that makes plays a high risk, high reward type of game but Hawkins has seen that before in the Big 12 Conference and it won't be a problem. The Rockets have no pass rush to speak of so Hawkins can forget about the 4 times he was sacked last week and with time in the pocket, I don't doubt he is going to hook up with TE Riar Geer (6 catches last week, 14.1 yards per catch in 2008) for some big yardage plays. This is a redemption game for the Buffaloes and I don't see them blowing it.

    The Toledo Rockets were supposed to be one of the most improved teams in the Country this season but they sure as heck did not look like in their season opening 21 point road loss at Purdue as a +10 point underdog and I have reason to believe that until MAC Conference play starts, this team is not going to win many games. Alright so Tim Beckman is the new head coach around here and I was very interested to see how this team would react to Tom Astutsz stepping down as head coach (after 8 years) after spending 30+ years around this team. So far, so bad. This is another team looking for redemption but with Colorado this week and Ohio State next week, the Rockets are going to enter their winnable game schedule with an 0-3 record on the year. I know Purdue has a good offense but these guys allowed 52 points and they looked very much like the defenses of 2007 and 2008 that allowed 39.2 and 31.4 points per game respectively. RB Morgan Williams who was the backbone of this offense in 2008 is still suspended and until he comes back, the Rockets are going to badly miss his 169 carries for 1053 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns and 6.0 yards per carry. Don't forget his 13 catches and 315 kick return yards. LB Daris Quinn is also still suspended (77 tackles, 4th on the team in 2008). Despite that, the Toledo offense looked pretty damn good scoring 31 points, amassing 493.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per pass attempt but it will be hard to repeat that feat against a Colorado team that is going to gut check themselves tonight. I have to admit Colorado's defense was a bit shell shocked in their opener as they returned only 4 starters this year. Although I don't really expect any better than what we saw last game, I do expect the Colorado offense to make things a bit easier this week for this young defense. The Buffaloes were torched on the ground last week as Colorado State rushed the ball 44 times and really worked the trenches. Toledo won't be doing much of that as they rushed the ball only 22 times against Purdue for 70.0 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. The Buffaloes can't concentrate on Toledo's air attack that despite passing for 423.0 yards last week against Purdue, QB Aaron Opelt averaged only 6.1 yards per pass attempt, threw 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Opelt's career TD-INT ratio at Toledo is 30-19 (not so good) and this Colorado secondary has some big time playmakers like CB Cha'Pelle Brown (I would say the top CB in the Conference) who led the team to 2 interceptions against Colorado State. What has to be noted is that once the jitters were gone (1st half), this Buffaloes defense really stepped up last week and allowed only 3 points in the second half. I think that second half was a great building block for this week and we should see a few game changing plays from this defense even if they allow a lot of points again. Opelt is almost always good for an interception or two per game and seeing how Colorado's secondary had only 9 interceptions all year in 2008 and now they already have 2, I think they step things up a notch.

    Not the most enticing Friday Night game that is for sure but an interesting one nonetheless now that both teams lost their opening games and both teams failed to cover the spread in those games. I think a very important stat to remember for this game is that Colorado always seems to play well after the Colorado State game as they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games after playing the Rams and they have won those games by an average of 19.0 points per game. I don't want to discuss Colorado's past non-conference road games because some of them are not pretty but this is the MAC Conference we are talking about and Colorado/Dan Hawkins has something to prove. I do remember Toledo beating Kansas at home in 2006 (took two overtimes) and I also remember their win over Iowa State here in 2007 but all-in-all the Rockets are 2-4 SU lifetime versus teams from the Big 12 Conference and I don't like their chances. Looking back quite a few years, Colorado has a decent track record on Friday Nights as they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games played and this team is 1-1 ATS under Dan Hawkins as a road favorite (5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points). Toledo historically has been good as home dog and they have burned me in the past but they are notorious for slow starts, covering only 4 of their last 15 games played in September and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. As much as Toledo has improved, Dan Hawkins is throwing his entire arsenal of plays at them tonight. Too much to handle.

    Trend of the Game: Colorado is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.


    Colorado 34, Toledo 19
     
  2. buffwings

    buffwings Club Member Club Member

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    I sure hope your right. Either he wins or he's gone. GO BUFFS, beat the Pocket Rocket!
     
  3. drew6236

    drew6236 Club Member Club Member

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    This isn't my write-up, it's from a guy from an "entertainment" site I frequent. Had a write up last week on CSU beating CU...Most of us scoffed.
     
  4. BroncoBuff

    BroncoBuff New Member

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    We should run the ball on every.singe.play.

    Scott: 25 carries
    Speedy: 15carries
    Cody: 5 carries
    Sumler: 5 carries
    Lockridge: 5 carries
    Scottie: 2 carries
    Simmons: 2 carries
     
  5. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

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    Sorry, but until I see our oline actually block someone, I'm not going to be confident in our running game. Granted, I've been blacked out for the majority of our games of late, but I can't remember a dominating running game since november, 2001. What am I missing?
     

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