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ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) - the new RPI?

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Feb 13, 2012.

  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    On Saturday ESPN introduced the Basketball Power Index, their crack at improving on RPI. (This is much like ESPN's attempt to improve on the Quarterback Rating in Football with the QBR.) The RPI is probably overly simple in its methodology but is still confusing. Personally I find myself going to the google or Buffnik for explanation of RPI's nuances. Apparently ESPN isn't ready to bore us with the details yet, either that or they don't think we are smart enough to understand them. From the article "There are a number of small details that we have in our methodology to make it reflective of a résumé for a tournament team -- these are pretty technical and many people won't be interested, so we won't go into detail, but we think they improve how the tool works." Note who developed the method and wrote the article, none other than the godfather of the "Four Factors" and former Denver Nuggets Director of Quantitative Analysis, Dean Oliver.

    What they do explain, I like.
    1) They have a way to account for missing players, so if you are missing your star player for 5 games and lose those 5 games but then continue to win when he gets back those games are weighted less
    2) In BPI, a close win at home is better than a close loss on the road against the same opponent. This isn't necessarily true in other methods and, in methods that do that, they don't typically account for bigger wins.
    3) BPI gives marginally decreasing credit for bigger wins, with a 30-point win being only about 20 percent better than a 15-point win, not twice as good, which can happen in other methods. This bascially means they are account for blowouts but not over-weighing them.
    4) Pace of play matters

    The article is worth a read, they do a nice job of comparing and contrasting their new BPI with RPI, KenPom and Sagarin.


    IncludesRPIBPISagarinKenPom
    Scoring marginNoYesYesYes
    Diminishing returns for blowoutsNoYesYesNo
    Pace of game mattersNoYesNoYes
    Home/Neutral/RoadYesYesYesYes
    SOS beyond Opponent's opponents' W-LNoYesYesYes
    All wins are better than losses (before Opp Adj)YesYesNoNo
    De-weighting games with missing key playersNoYesNoNo




    FYI - Colorado debuts on the BPI at 85. (Currenlty in 74 in RPI, 77 in KenPom and 78 in Sagarin)
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2012
  2. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    wow Colorado State is 26 in RPI and 88 in BPI
     
  3. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm still partial to KenPom myself, but this one intrigues me. Definitely something worth watching.
     
  4. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I'm not sure I want espin's hand involved in anything. Show us sports and leave everything else alone.
     
  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    That's my concern, but it's the direction they're going.

    During the football season, they were harping on their own QB rating system. Now it's basketball team rankings.

    In both cases the existing metrics were flawed, but I don't know if I want ESPN creating its own measures. Checks and balances on objectivity start getting lost. It's kind of like when the cable news companies give their own polling data on political issues or candidates.
     
  6. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Exactly. And what jg eluded to about espin not disclosing their full methodology bothers me a bit. Are they afraid of something here?
     
  7. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    "There are a number of small details that we have in our methodology to make it reflective of a résumé for a tournament team"

    equates to

    "There are details we can tweak in our methodology to make the conferences we have TV contracts with appear stronger"
     
  8. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    I do not understand their RPI. Its crazy.
     
  9. InTheBuff

    InTheBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I guess that's what happens when you get your ass handed to you by Duke.
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    As far as ESPN goes, where I think they do a good job is when someone like Jay Bilas does his "Bilas Index". He takes an objective measure (in this case BPI) and then applies his own eyeball test to the teams. At least he says that he is personally using a mix of BPI, Sagarin and KenPom to form the backdrop to his opinions. Interesting that he doesn't look at RPI and that's what the tourney selection committee uses on the team sheets it receives.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...ohio-state-buckeyes-top-3-michigan-state-loss
     
  11. GregInArlington

    GregInArlington Well-Known Member

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    What, UConn is #1 in the BPI again?? I'm sure espn has nothing to do with this....
     
  12. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Agree with what others have mentioned in terms of not wanting ESPN to get heavily involved in this. Of course they're going to have an agenda. I'm also seeing as many questionable rankings as I've seen by other methods, but that's just a matter of opinion.
     
  13. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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  14. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    So, basically, we had no need for BPI.
     

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