Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by NYC Buff, Oct 26, 2014.
whos with me?
Well, we have to win two in order to win all four and make a bowl game. I am in. Haha, no chance in hell, but a guy can day dream can't he?
Im in. Washington and Utah.
I like it!!
Washington and my upset pick Arizona
Definitely a possibility! More likely than I would have thought at the start of the year !:gobuffs:
I like the Arizona upset pick. Feel like we matchup well with them.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I sincerely hope I am way off, but I think it is a horrible matchup for us. Think that one could get real ugly.
I'm open to it.
Sadly I think it is this week or nothing.
None of the last three seem ripe for the picking at all.
Maybe Utah because of it's at home and it'll be our bowl game, but I think their d line will rip us up.
Oregon will ass-throttle us, and I don't like our matchup with UA at all.
Watched Arizona pummel Wazzou last night and have to agree with Duff.
At the start of the season I saw Zona as one of our better chances to win but don't anymore.
They are playing well enough to have only lost one game this year, not showing any signs of a team that is likely to have one of those lousy days that provide the opportunity for an upset.
They also have a few guys who are just simply superior athletes and players, the kind of standouts who overwhelm our limited talent. We have had trouble keeping pressure off Sefo and attack the QB. By the way Scooby Wright is a flat out stud, dominated WSU last night.
Think that Washington and Utah are our best hopes and neither of those looks highly probable.
I don't know.I know it doesn't make any sense on paper, but I feel lke we have UA's number. We played them close last year and we were terrible. We are a much better team this year, we have something to prove and we have an axe to grind with them (keeping Kerry in the game in the 4th two years ago when the game was over 3 mins into the second half.) I think our desire to make a statement combined with them likely looking past us makes for a prime upset scenario.
Something tells me our buffs are dying to play spoiler to the team that showed no respect and used the buffs like a practice squad so they could run up the stats for their RB. Payback's a bitch. Buhbye playoff spot....
Agreed. If our O line can hang against Utah, it would represent solid progress. Tall order as Utah D looks very stout.
Oregon just hoping we stay on the field and not let it get ugly. AZ, revenge factor and playing with house money about all we have going. Would be the sweetest if we could find a way.
Washington, we need to win this game. Huge at so many levels for the program.
Washington is winnable. I think Utah is too since it's here. I don't see us with a prayer against AZ or UO. 4 wins, all FBS, 2 conference would be about what I expected and a huge improvement over last year.
Are are undefeated in moral victories though? :huh:
Duff and others are right that Arizona is a bad match-up for us. Until WSU, they were playing up (or down) to their competition every game. For that reason I thought we might have a shot against Arizona, but I'm starting to change my mind. I could see us beating Washington or Utah, but would be surprised if we won two more games.
We did? I'm not sure I'd call a 24 point loss at home "close".
Agreed. We don't do well against very athletic receivers, and AZ has a stable full of them. This one, and UO, will be U G L Y!!!
The only thing we can hope for is that RichRod manages to pull one of those inexplicable dud games out of the hat against us. He has managed to do that before in his career so there is hope.
Unfortunately they would have to lay a huge egg because to me they look like a bad match-up for us even if they don't play their best game.
We are not WashSt. They chuck the rock 85% of the time. We run a much more balanced offense. Their receivers are tall, but so are Witherspoon and Crawley. Olugbode is the perfect spy for Anu. HCMM will have a good game plan and AZ will be overlooking us heading into the last couple weeks of the season.
I could be wrong and it might be a bloody, merciless, beat down, but I think we have a real shot at the win.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If we hold our own against the UW DL and don't let Cyler Miles go crazy I like our chances. AZ on the road is scary, don't think we can keep up on the scoreboard. Utah's D and ST looks really good so not sure about that one.
Cumulative score the past 3 years vs. UW: 149-34. We've improved a ton, but not enough to close that gap.
We're close and I desperately want to believe ... but we won't win again this year.
Ya know, ceteris paribus and all.
What were the gaps for ASU and UCLA? That's being pretty damn selective.
ASU: 44-153, -109 differential
UCLA: 43-132, -89 differential
UW: 34-149, -115 differential
So, the UW score differential was slightly worse than ASU and a bit worse than UCLA. But, I also believe that ASU (#13 F /+) and UCLA (#12 F /+) are better teams than UW (#62 F/+) this season. Those stats are before last weekends game because FootballOutsider hasn't updated the data yet, but we were #80 this week and dropped from #68 after losing to USC (#21 F +/). After playing that game with UCLA, we will move up a bit and UCLA will slide down a bit. I'm not sure how much UW will drop, but they will and the gap in the rankings will not be all that much, I expect both teams will be in the 60's, maybe we slide up into the 50's. UW sure as hell has more talent, and a better defense, but their offense has not been good and is the worst that we've played in-conference this year.
Losing to UCLA kills any good chance we had at 4 wins. Unlikely that two more teams will struggle like that against us.
Those are illustrative stats. To your point, in the prediction thread, I have us losing by 11. The gap is narrowed significantly ... but not completely flipped. That's pretty unreasonable. I'm sure there are teams that have lost 97-10 over 2 years to a team and then come back to beat them the next year ... but it has to be extremely rare.
Well Vegas initially set the line at UW -4.5 so they clearly think the gap will be significantly cut, with a decent chance of us winning (35% in Vegas at +186, 36% via pythag, 37% off-shore). I think you're making UW out to be better than they actually are compared to the other teams where we have significantly cut the gap to the point where victory was close.
Skier's point about the coaching change is a very good one as well, this isn't the same team that Sark had and Sark isn't leading this team. Sefarian-Jenkins gave us fits and I think Sark is a better coach than Peterson at this level.
Well, hope you (and lots of others on here) are right. I had an "eat crow" post all ready to go last week, after I had said we had no chance vs. UCLA. I'd love to be dead wrong, especially against the Fuskies.
Another factor working against us is the close nature of our losses (except USC.)
Teams are going to be watching film of games we could have won. Much less chance of sneaking up on somebody now.
Separate names with a comma.