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Is the PAC12 guaranteed a slot in the top 4 now?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Tractor, Nov 9, 2014.

  1. Tractor

    Tractor Club Member Club Member

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    Oregon's in the top 4 already with 2 easy games left (CU, Oregon State). These two wins would put them in the championship game.


    ASU is currently 9th, coming off a win over top 10 ND. #3 (to an unranked team) and #7 lost. That puts ASU at #7. They have @Oregon State, Washington St, and @Zona left. MSU and Bama still play each other.


    If either team wins out, they're in. The only (slightly realistic) stumbling block scenario would be Zona beating ASU and then ASU beating Oregon.


    Would Oregon losing their conference championship game against a top 12 team knock them out of the playoff race?



    I feel like the PAC12 today is closer to having 2 teams in the playoff as opposed to 0.

    Barring some miracle upset, of course. Thoughts?
     
  2. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

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    I just have this sick feeling that the committee will find a way to still put 3 SEC teams in. I think MSU and Alabama are definitely in, unless Bama loses to MSU.

    I could see a scenario with both ASU and Oregon in but would need all of the SEC teams, except maybe one, to have two loses.
     
  3. Highlander

    Highlander Club Member Club Member

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    One of them has to win out to be in. A second loss for either team (which will definitely happen since they would have to play each other in the CCG) probably knocks out the second team.
     
  4. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama still has Auburn. And still play each other. MSU or Bama could end up with 3 losses.

    Oregon wins out they are in
    FSU wins out they are in
    TCU wins out they are in
    Bama wins out they are in
     
  5. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

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    I think that would be a good playoff. One team from each division.
     
  6. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    Would watch.
     
  7. FlatironsBuff

    FlatironsBuff Club Member Club Member

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    No way. A close loss by one to the other in the CCG just proves how tough the conference is and why both should be in the playoffs.

    Wait. Are we still talking about the SEC?
     
  8. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    If Oregon wins out they're in for sure.
    If ASU wins out then they will likely be in although it will mostly depend on what teams in front of them do. Let's say ASU, Ohio State, and TCU all win out and they're vying for the last spot? Just one of the many hypothetical situations that could play out.
    I really don't think the loser of the Pac-12 CG gets in.
     
  9. Eggon

    Eggon Club Member Club Member

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    I think Mich St loss helps remove one potential thorn. Ducks win out.... Think they are in. ASU, just not sure but I suppose.

    I think Ducks are in cause they are the cream of Pac. Curious to see if MSU hangs w AL.....

    FSU in most likely. Open chair for the other spot. TCU?
     
  10. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    (fifm, and) I would watch these games.
     
  11. fwbuff

    fwbuff Active Member

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    Don't think things are so simple for TCU. TCU has a Baylor problem. If the Bears win out, they will be Big XII champs, and have head-to-head win over TCU. I can't see the committee putting TCU in over Baylor in that scenario. I don't like it, but I think that may be how it plays out.
     
  12. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    I see TCU winning out over Baylor winning out. TCU at least plays a little defense. Catalon (damnit) is a hell of a back for the frogs. He is going to give them headaches.
     
  13. fwbuff

    fwbuff Active Member

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    I think they probably both win out. Just checked Baylor's schedule, and they have Ok St, @ Tech, and KSU left. That last one is tricky, but is in Waco. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Baylor loses any of those.

    I don't think TCU controls its own destiny.
     
  14. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    I always forget that the Big 12-2-2+2 doesn't have a CCG anymore.

    (Using AP rankings)

    #6 Baylor has OSU, TT, and #7KSU
    #5 TCU has KU, UT, ISU

    Baylor winning out will have 3 top 25 wins and the head to head
    TCU winning out will have 5 top 25 wins

    Frogs have the better resume. Baylor has the head to head. Tough choice.

    TCU only loss was to #5 Baylor @ Waco by 3
    Baylor only loss was to NR WVU @ Morgantown by 14

    Baylor OOC is SMU, NWSt, and UBuffalo
    TCU OOC is Samford, Minnesota, and SMU

    TCU needs minnesota to finish the year strong make them a big win.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2014
  15. InTheBuff

    InTheBuff Club Member Club Member

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    not an Oregon fan but wouls root for them to be there in the top 4 - can't hurt the pac12
     
  16. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    Fuvk Oregon. Let's end their season!
     
  17. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    That is the only way I would want Oregon to be knocked out of the playoffs. Pac-12 could use the exposure and the money. But if CU spoils that all for them, that would be fine with me.
     
  18. bar9716

    bar9716 Member

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    TCU over Baylor

    Baylor has a WV problem. And Baylor lost soundly to WV. If the bears win out, they won't be sole Big XII champs, they will only have piece of that pie. Right now the CFP committee has already ranked TCU ahead of Baylor and TCU just beat a ranked KState team.
     
  19. InTheBuff

    InTheBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I have better chances winning the lottery but yes... CU over Oregon would be great ... but since that won't happen might as well get the Pac 12 some great exposure.
     
  20. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    Watching the collective Oregon "fanbase" go over the edge would be worth it. Their tears would taste delicious.
     
  21. Colorado Track Fan

    Colorado Track Fan Banned BANNED

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    The top 4 this year will be: Bama, Miss State, LSU and Florida State. That's how the system works.
     
  22. Colorado Track Fan

    Colorado Track Fan Banned BANNED

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    I don't believe there is any chance that Oregon would be in the top 4 if they lost the CCG and end up with two losses. Only SEC teams could remain in the top 4 would two losses. That's the unfortunate reality.
     
  23. goalline

    goalline Club Member Club Member

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    No 2-loss team will be in the final four. Alabama and Miss State may both get in if Alabama wins this weekend, but not with a Miss State win.
     
  24. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    In last week's rankings the committee had TCU 6th and Baylor 12th, that's a fairly significant difference. But Baylor has the SOS schedule advantage the rest of the way with a win over KSU that would help boost them plus a win over a decent Okie State team. If they both win out not only will Baylor have the head-to-head but would also be Big 12 champs. However the head-to-head was at Baylor and TCU was in control of that game much of way and led by 21 into the 4th quarter, so how much if at all will the committee look beyond just the final score? Definitely would be a tough choice between these 2.
     
  25. Colorado Track Fan

    Colorado Track Fan Banned BANNED

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    Head to head trumps everything in my opinion, assuming similar records. It's almost farcical to to engage in convoluted rationale to determine which team is better when the two teams actually played each other on the football field.

    That's like say that, "well, Federer beat Nadal in the finals, but Fed had an easier road to the finals and in previous tournaments struggled against lesser opponents....so we're going to go ahead and present the winner's trophy to Nadal.
     

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