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Just thinking aloud about realignment...

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by leftybuff, Jun 4, 2010.

  1. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    If Pac 16 happens with UT, OU, OSU, CU, aTm and TT;

    Big 10 goes 16 with ND, Syr, Rutgers, Mizzou the cornchubs or UCONN

    SEC or ACC goes 16 and the other stands pat at 12, that's 60 of the 119 D1 schools in a BCS conference. If the Big East survives, which it probably wouldn't under the above scenario, even a bigger slice of major CFB is in a BCS conference.

    If you get left out of this, you are going to be in a world of hurt. i.e. Boise, KU, KjSU, ISU, anybody left in the Big East after the dominoes fall etc. It is almost as if D1 is dumping the dead weight and creating two dvision within D1.
     
  2. UrbanaBuff

    UrbanaBuff Member

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    We've all seen and heard the recent rumblings that the MWC was on the verge of a BCS auto bid... with the success of Utah, TCU and BYU of late. So with all that said, I don't think there is any way that the new Big XII won't receive a BCS bid. Sure, they'll suck relative to the big boys, but not too dissimilar from the Big East of the past decade.

    New Big XII East: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Louisville, Memphis, Houston
    New Big XII West: Baylor, Utah, BYU, TCU, New Mexico, Boise State

    This conference would be respectable. You'd have some parity on the football side, as at least 5 of these schools have played in a BCS game recently. On the hoops side, it is strong. And if they want to expand up to 16, you may get Air Force, Colo St, UNLV and Wyoming. But that would water things down a bit.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2010
  3. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Makes a lot of sense. They could also go to a 14 team conference with AFA and UNLV in. Air Force has national appeal due to their military connection and thus travel very well and do reasonably well on TV. UNLV gives you a foothold in the Las Vegas market, both schools are willing to support their athletic departments at a level to compete. CSU has attendance issues and the lowest AD budget in the MWC, Wyoming draws only about 20k to home games and has very few TV sets, neither school has competed nationally for a number of years in football or basketball. Financially they would be hard to justify keeping around and this is all about the finances.
     
  4. Buffarino

    Buffarino Math - how does it work? Club Member

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    Realignment is going to happen and CU is going to be royally screwed if they don't get a P10/12/16 invite. Big backwards steps if that happens.

    They need to jump somewhere else while they still can, because a neutered B12 would be devastating to the AD's finances.
     
  5. CsquaredCC

    CsquaredCC Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget that all the original Mountain West programs have dedicated a lot of money and resources into developing a conference television network that is off the ground and running. Also, it sounds like Boise State to the Mountain West is a done deal and with it an almost certain automatic bid. I just don't see Utah, TCU, and BYU leaving for a watered down Big 12 conference like the one proposed above that breaks up the revenue pot even further and abandons nearly three years of investment into a television network.
     
  6. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    If the Big Televen adds Rutgers and Syracuse, the Big East becomes a bball conference that happens to play some football. There would only be 6 football schools left - Cincy, Pitt, WV, UConn, USF and Louisville. And it's not hard to see Pitt and WV in particular as fairly attractive candidates to another expanding league (ACC, primarily). The Big East would have to either bring in some football schools via expansion (maybe bring back Temple? Raid C-USA?) just to be a BCS conference. It wouldn't surprise if what happens instead is that the football schools peel off from the Big East. Louisville and Cincy wouldn't be a bad fit with Ku, KjSU, ISU, Baylor and maybe a few others. Houston? Tulsa? SMU? TCU? The Big East could very well end up looking a lot like the A-10...

    I don't expect to see ND want to jump to a conference, honestly. They think it's beneath them to slum with ordinary schools. But they might change their minds when they see how many conference games some of these leagues plan on playing. If schools only get 1 or 2 non-conference games a year, scheduling might get really tough for the Irish...
     
  7. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    :lol: Just heard some douche named Joe Chad, an ESPN insider guy or something, say one of the implications would be the greater distances Big XII fans would have to travel if their team moved to the Pac 10. "Right now they can just jump in their truck and drive to a road game..." TRUCK? :lol: Hey, we ain't hicks here in the Big old 12, boy!
     
  8. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    Their preyers could be answered with the formation of a Jesus-7 conference.
    Baylor
    TCU
    Wake Forrest
    Boston College
    Notre Dame
    BYU
    SMU
     
  9. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    By skimming off the top and cutting off the bottom they enhance their position for an automatic bid when it all settles down. One of the arguments against the MWC now is the pathetic SOS against the bottom of the league. The big three are 32-0 against the rest of the league over the past two years.

    The Mountain is not a major problem either, if the league disolves it is simply sold to the new league with the excluded teams getting payouts proportional to their share. The increased TV value of UrbanaBuff's proposal would more than make up that cost to the rest of the schools. The network would come back, likely under a new name but cable networks change names all the time. Add the regions covered in the proposal and it would be a whole lot easier to sell the network to carriers than it is now.
     
  10. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    I think the MWC will need to get to 16 as will just to keep up and be guaranteed a BCS slot. Look for the MWC to pick up the Big 12 remains + Boise State, Houston, and probably Tulsa

    TCU
    BYU
    Utah
    Air Force
    Wyoming
    UNLV
    San Diego ST
    New Mexico
    Colorado State
    Kansas
    Kansas State
    Houston
    Boise State
    Iowa State
    Baylor
    Tulsa

    that would at least be respectable and they can probably make $8 million a year with a tv deal.
     
  11. CsquaredCC

    CsquaredCC Well-Known Member

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    Do you honestly think they are going to move the MTN network (or whatever new name was adopted) to another conference without a presence in the Denver television market? CSU certainly isn't dominating the airwaves, but its proximity to the metro area will be attractive enough that it will be included in any Big 12 re-alignment if the above occured.
     
  12. CsquaredCC

    CsquaredCC Well-Known Member

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    Swap Tulsa for SMU or Fresno State and I think that is a very likely scenerio.
     
  13. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    Just found a nice photo of Dan Beebe at the Big XII news conference.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    I don't know if that would be KU's first choice. They're going to try to do something that will be good for their hoops program. Schools like Memphis and Louisville are going to appeal to them more than anybody in the MWC, even with BYU and UNM being strong in basketball most years...
     
  15. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    Texas stands to lose on this deal because they were in the process of putting their own TV network deal together, ala Notre Dame with NBC. The Pac 10 deal would probably kill that deal.
     
  16. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Don't get me wrong, I did grad school at CSU, I support them and have even supported the school financially in the past. Time to get real. CSU's last bowl appearance was the second lowest rated bowl of the season following only the bowl that gets the Sun Belt champ. CSU doesn't draw TV ratings, even in the Denver area to notice. CSU fans constantly scream about not getting "fair" coverage in Denver newspapers and TV, these are driven by fan interest and it isn't there. CSU has a small core of very rabid supporters, most of whom are found on Ramnation or a Potts but for the most part the state couldn't give a crap about them, they are way behind CU in interest and even trail the AFA which doesn't even have the alumni presence in the area.

    If Air Force is in the deal the MTN has their appeal in Denver. What interest they lose in the Denver area is more than made up for by what they gain in Texas, Kansas, and even Iowa. Put simply the cost of the revenues that would have to be shared with CSU and Wyoming compared with their potential to produce revenues to be shared with the league put them both in a very tenuous position. I'm not saying they are going to be left out but I would not be surprised at all if they are.
     
  17. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Is that your younger brother?:smile2:
     
  18. CsquaredCC

    CsquaredCC Well-Known Member

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    Air Force? Seriously? They have absolutely no substantial alumni presence in the Denver market.

    I don't disagree with you that CSU plays second fiddle to CU in terms of coverage, but I just don't see a new BCS conference taking on a new network and turning its back on a CSU program or a Denver television market to substitute it with Northeast Iowa and Des Moines.
     
  19. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Perhaps the point is that the Denver market will belong to the Pac 16 anyway, as CSU simply doesn't have the "pull" here now, nor will they in the future. Thus, the Denver market is a moot point. Fair or unfair, that's the way it looks....
     
  20. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    I stated they don't have an alumni presence in Denver, they do however even without the alumni draw much more interest and attention in Denver. On a typical football Saturday there are a lot more Denver cars heading south on I-25 to Falcon Stadium than heading north to Hughes. They manage to get 35-40k plus for average opponents, CSU has troubel getting 30k for their best opponents.

    The CSU fanatics are as dedicated as anyone in the country to their team, the trouble is that there aren't enough of them and outside of those dedicated fanatics nobody cares. Air Force fans may not be as solidly dedicated to their team but a lot more of them buy tickets and turn on TVs, that is what counts in this business and that is why Air Force gets the pick ahead of CSU.
     
  21. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Assume the Big 12 has the following teams left after the dust clears:

    Kansas
    Kansas State
    Iowa State
    Baylor
    (possible Oklahoma State, but let's keep it at 4)

    Those 4 would look to find 8 teams to join with in order to have a championship game. They'd target C-USA, MWC and WAC. They'd get whomever they wanted because they'd still be a BCS conference and only have to maintain the minimum requirement in order to keep status.

    Media market, time zone/travel distance, and athletic prowess considerations would lead them to the following, imo, with no one else really being considered unless they went to 16 (doubtful but could happen). With 16, I think they look West to UNLV, SDSU, FSU and BSU on top of 8 from the following list:

    C-USA Targets: Houston, SMU, Memphis, Tulsa, UTEP, Tulane, Rice, UAB, SoMiss
    MWC Targets: TCU, BYU, CSU, AFA, UNM
    WAC Targets: LA Tech
     
  22. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Big East target: Louisville, possibly Cincy
     
  23. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    They would not be interested in La Tech, not enough revenue potential. Same reason that CSU gets left out of the MWC. At the same time in the MWC Utah almost has to be target #1 with TCU, UNM, BYU. They rest come from your C-USA list

    All this based on a conference based in the middle US, move west and you add UNLV and Fresno ahead of some others based on their demographics.
     
  24. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Junction: Great point on Louisville and Cincy. With Memphis, they'd be a very nice addition with some natural rivalries. It wouldn't completely shock me if they took the approach of becoming a midwest basketball power and thought along those lines.

    Imagine the group of KU, KSU, ISU, Baylor and OSU adding Memphis, Louisville, Tulsa, Houston and TCU to get to 10. That's already one hell of a basketball conference and pretty competitive in football. Lots of good sized cities represented. All in a single time zone. There are certainly going to be plenty of options for those programs.
     
  25. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Good points. Tulane may be the better target in Louisiana if they wanted to get a foothold there for recruiting. Football games at the Superdome and New Orleans is a decent media market.

    I left off Utah because in my mind they're in the Pac once all of this shakes out. You're absolutely correct if that doesn't happen, though. They should be target #1 out of the current MWC.
     
  26. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Makes sense to me. Somebody posted an ESPiN basketball blog here about how hoops is getting ignored in all this. I can see a few of the hoops first schools like KU, Louisville and Memphis banding together to do something about that.
     
  27. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    NO, dammit! He was the Captain of the ****ing Titanic!! No relation. His dad and I were friends, though.
     

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