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KenPom Conference Simulations

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Dec 31, 2013.

  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    KenPom dropped his first part of his conference simulations today. They are ranked from least competitive to most (32-1). The numbers are based on 10,000 simulations using the monte carlo simulation method.

    23. Pac-12


    The pick: Arizona. The computer doesn’t like Arizona as much as everyone else. At least in the sense that they’re not obviously the best team in the country. The computer also doesn’t think as much of the conference as most do, so the Wildcats are the clear favorite.


    The contrarian pick: Colorado. The Buffs have the best home-court advantage in the league between the altitude and a packed house every night. If they can get something done away from Boulder, they’re a good sleeper pick.


    Arizona598659.86%
    Oregon138913.89%
    Colorado9769.76%
    UCLA7697.69%
    Arizona St.3493.49%
    Stanford3263.26%
    California1331.33%
    Utah640.64%
    USC30.03%
    Washington St.30.03%
    Oregon St.20.02%
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2013
  2. Ruckus

    Ruckus Peep my words. Club Member

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    KenPom didn't compute UW for this? Or should I blame you.
     
  3. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Those 11 add up to 10,000 predicted wins. I'm guessing UW got left off because none of the 10000 simulations had them winning the conference.
     
  4. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    per KenPom: If your team is not listed, they did not win a single simulation.
     
  5. btbuff

    btbuff It's an inside joke Club Member

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    Washington never won one simulation.

    Pretty apt description for our pick though. You can tell Ken Pom has been to Boulder in recent years.
     
  6. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    That is kind of suprising...I would think Washington would compute better than Washington State or Oregon State
     
  7. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Makes sense.

    Pretty much how most would see it, I think. Zona is the prohibitive favorite, but it's not a walkover. They're going to get everyone's best shot most nights, too, which will turn into some losses we don't expect if they're not quite as good as their ranking would indicate.
     
  8. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    They're REALLY REALLY bad. I've watched 3 UW games this year, that's 3 too many. They have no size, they can't stop anybody inside or score inside. If Wilcox goes down they are screwed. And Romar is trying his best to make that happen, Wilcox hardly comes out of the game.

    Josh could score 30 against them.
     
  9. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    I haven't seen them play yet...just assumed they were down but not bottom of the Pac bad...thanks for the info
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I tried to tell UDub fans that N'Diaye was keeping them in games with what he did for FG% defense, but they wouldn't listen. Most of their fans thought he was the problem because of the limitations in his game. Now they see what they're like without him and all that he covered up.
     
  11. Ruckus

    Ruckus Peep my words. Club Member

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    Then I won't blame you or Kenpom. Just udub.
     
  12. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I just looked into the UW #'s:

    They are 12th worst in defensive FG% at the rim in the country, teams shoots 70.3% at the rim against them. Their overall defensive 2pt FG% is 55.8% (336th) and they give up 1.09 PPP. So their defense pretty much sucks. Their offense is semi-competent but it doesn't come close to offsetting their defense.

    Also - Romar's got them playing quick on offense again, looks like that experiment with the slower high post offense is done. Their offensive possessions are the 15th quickest, in 2012/2013 they were 124th and in 2011/2012 they were 25th and 25th was the highest Romer's ever been on offense.
     
  13. air-zona

    air-zona Member

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    Poor UW fans. They actually thought they were gonna take over the PAC
     
  14. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    If a team is playing at a faster tempo and committing turnovers it seems reasonable that opponents fg numbers at the rim would be higher. Add in the loss of their defensive post presence and it looks to be a recipe for disaster.

    Romar might be playing with fire.
     
  15. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    fify
     
  16. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    The interesting thing with UW is that they really aren't committing TO's and they do a good job of keeping teams out of transition. It's their half-court defense that is terrible. Teams shoot 68% at the rim in non-transition attempts. Compare that to CU, teams shoot 51.3% at the rim in non-transition against us.
     
  17. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    That is interesting. Nik's point about losing Ndiaye is one key, but this also speaks of the entire teams inefficiency, particularly in stopping drives and/or entry passes.

    I wonder if Romar will get this corrected before the end of the season.
     

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