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Offensive Line (O/U thread)

BehindEnemyLines said:
Kudos on the response, tini. You put some thot into it and backed it up with #'s and/or data. I'll respond in kind.

We will have either 2 or possibly even 3 new starters on the o/line. The continuity and communication required for good line play will take time to develop. This will result in some missed assignments particularly early in the season.

We won't be playing 2 non-d1 teams this year. The schedule isn't as kind, even if the ooc isn't particularly good. Add to that a csewe team that will come after Sefo, and the normal heavies in the conference who are now familiar with CU's offense, and we can expect the opposing game plans to expose our o/line weaknesses.

I mentioned the new LT in my original post - the most critical pass blocker. We will start a complete unknown, no matter who it is. Let's also factor in the RT position since last year it was a swinging gate on passing downs. I truly hope Nembot steps up. Lord knows, we need him to improve.

Put it all together and the reality is harsh, until proven otherwise. I stand by my 2.5 per game average, and sincerely hope they prove me wrong.
Click to expand...
You callin me a hoe?

1. I only see three new OL if Callahan is eligible for 2014, and if that were the case that would be fantastic and not something I would worry about much. He's gone against NFL DE's since he stepped on-campus at Auburn. We gain at center. Handler, gave his all, but he just wasn't strong enough to be a Pac 12 center, Kelley is. He's very strong and very flexible. Handler got blown up a lot last year, especially against Sutton. Kelley will be a 4th year Sophomore and has gotten all of the first team snaps since the 2013 season ended. The right side of the line stays completely in tact with Munyer and Nembot.

LT - Irwin*/Crabb/Callahan*
LG - Crabb/Huckins*
C - Kelley*
RG - Munyer
RT - Nembot

2. Even though we aren't playing Charleston Southern and Central Arkansas, our schedule is not much more difficult than last year at all. UMass is a terrible team and Sagarin actually has both Charleston Southern and Central Arkansas ranked above UMass in his rankings and UMass ranked #118 out of 125 on the F+/- rankings. CSU loses 80% of their OL and their entire backfield, best defensive player, and their best TE. In game 1 they are going to be hard pressed to put together a team that won't miss much. In short, I expect CSU to regress this year. Hawaii, just like UMass, is terrible. Somehow they are ranked above us in the F+/- rankings despite going 1-11 in a terrible MWC, but in the Sagarin rankings they are ranked #127. When we get into our conference schedule, we see that there are more winnable games at home. Last year we only played Cal at home as our most winnable game at home. This year we play Utah and Oregon State, both winnable games, at home and Cal on the road. It shouldn't be too much to expect for this staff to win 2 of those 3 to get to 5 wins on the year.

3. Nembot was named the most improved OL in the Spring by the staff. You talk about communication on the OL, but Munyer had to try to compensate for Handler on his left while trying to maintain his assignment to his right, so it wouldn't surprise me if some of the issues we saw got stacked up because we were weak at center.

4. Reality is harsh, but none of your reasons make me think that the OL is going to regress by 112% (or whatever it was) in terms of sack ranking and regress 50% in their sack numbers in year two of a system with a QB who is good at avoiding being sacked.
 
Some here conveniently dump a lot on Handler. We are washing away all our sins with one graduation. Handler was better than Kelley last year and it wasn't close. That's why he played. I like Alex Kelley a lot and I expect he will be a great Buff, but he's replacing a multi-year starter and I'd suggest it's a little early to call it an upgrade. And suggesting Munyer's problems were really a Handler issue and that will all be better now is just Rosy.

Adam has an interview up on Irwin that is approaching 24 hours. Sounds like a really nasty and major surgery. Doesn't sound to me that he's been full-go and likely has missed a lot of training, squatting, etc while healing.
A lot of our teams would call that a major concern, not a savior.
 
Maybe because Handler wasn't good and wasn't athletic enough to play at the Pac 12 level? I know I'm not the only one who firmly believes Kelley is an upgrade over Handler. Just because Kelley wasn't ahead of Handler last year doesn't mean Kelley isn't better now, MacIntyre sounded like he liked what he saw out of Kelley in the Spring. The fact is that Handler got ran over in games and had a lot of trouble with his assignments, not being flexible enough and not having the needed strength played a part in that. The Munyer part is something I saw watching the Utah game film, among other games. Handler would miss his assignment quite often leaving Munyer on an island.

And can you point out where I said Irwin was our savior?

Anyway, it's not like I have terribly high expectations for the OL, I just don't expect them to regress from last year. I expect us to be able to rush off the right side decently and for the sack numbers to be about where they were last year.
 
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We've all seen and heard of "off-season superstars" before. How many times has that song been played on the AllBuffs radio network?

As I said before, I hope Nembot proves me wrong but until it happens we still have to consider RT a liability in the passing game. The team can have a TE help set that edge or we can have a RB chip the edge rusher, but that affects who/how many routes we're running. And using a TE/RB on the right side takes away help on the left - the qb's blindside - where the Buffs will start another question mark.

Pass protection going into this year worries me more than it did going into last year. Again, I hope they prove me wrong.
 
The people MM has praised have gone on to produce that season. See: Gillam. I still don't see the evidence for a drastic regression that you are predicting.
 
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Duff Man said:
Tini is confident in our OL without knowing the LT. That is confusing.
Click to expand...

Then why'd you make this thread at this point? You're confusing me being confident and me not believing that the OL will regress as much as BEL is predicting. I'm predicting one more sack than last year, nothing outlandish.
 
I say under, but mainly b/c our qb seems to have the 6th sense necessary to avoid a lot sacks.

It's arguable which OL position is most important, but it's either center or LT. LT because he protects the qb blind side; center because he reads the defense and calls the blocking assignments. We're replacing both with untested players.

For center, the mental aspects of it are probably slightly more important than the physical. We might be upgrading the physical, but in replacing the experience of a multi-year starter, we're likely to see some early struggles in the mental parts of playing the position (and it may not be obvious during the game that the reason the play blew up is because the center mis-read the defense and blew the blocking calls - it will just look like x missed his block). I think the staff has shown which of the two aspects (physical or mental) they think is more important based on last year's choice of starter...

On LT, regardless of who ends up playing there, they're going to be new. Barring very bad luck, the level of play is going to be somewhere between a slight downgrade and a large improvement.

Which is actually my range of likely outcomes for the line as a whole: slight regression to large improvement. My expectation is for a similar to slightly improved performance, and the only outcomes that would surprise me are an absolutely terrible season or a dominating one.
 
2.5 sacks per game is not an abnormally high number. I think the Buffs will average about 35 passes per game, mostly because the run game is still a work in progress and because I think they'll find themselves behind in several of the games.

Figuring 35 passes and an average of 2.5 sacks, that amounts to 1 sack every 14 pass plays. Not great, but not overly alarming either.

I imagine the staff wants to/is working on increased efficiency in the run game. Guess what that depends on?
 
That Irwin report looks scary. I'll go with over.

Under may occur if:
-Nembot improves
-Irwin can actually play
-Callahan is eligible immediately
 
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