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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Feb 1, 2014.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology thread on January 30th. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

    Certainly not definitive and I'm not a huge believer in him for seeding, but he's always very close with the 68 teams so I'm going to lead with that one.

    [h=5]Last Four Byes[/h]


    [h=5]Last Four In[/h]


    [h=5]First Four Out[/h]


    [h=5]Next Four Out[/h]





    Buffs came into today with the #26 RPI and some high quality wins, but risk getting very "Bubbly" if they can't secure a winning conference record. Beating Utah to close the 1st half of Pac-12 play at 5-4 was a vital win.

    RPI's #30 - 75 as of right now (Real Time RPI):

    [​IMG]30 VA Commonwealth 18-4 0.614581 0.5439 Atl106-1
    [HR][/HR]
    [​IMG]31 Geo. Washington 17-4 0.612492 0.5368 Atl105-2
    [​IMG]32 Toledo 17-3 0.6118123 0.5165 Midam6-2
    [​IMG]33 Florida St. 13-7 0.610520 0.5878 Acc4-4
    [​IMG]34 Southern Miss 16-3 0.6083135 0.5107 Cusa5-1
    [​IMG]35 Connecticut 17-4 0.606870 0.5506 Aac5-3
    [​IMG]36 Kansas St. 15-6 0.605128 0.5805 Big125-3
    [​IMG]37 Louisville 17-4 0.603977 0.5490 Aac6-2
    [​IMG]38 Iowa 16-5 0.603667 0.5558 Big105-3
    [​IMG]39 Harvard 15-3 0.6007154 0.5041 Ivy3-0
    [​IMG]40 North Dakota St 13-5 0.598696 0.5336 Summit5-1
    [HR][/HR]
    [​IMG][​IMG]41 North Carolina 14-7 0.598518 0.5911 Acc4-4
    42 Providence 16-6 0.598557 0.5609 Bige6-3
    [​IMG]43 Arizona St. 16-5 0.597774 0.5497 Pac125-3
    [​IMG]44 Richmond 14-8 0.594430 0.5797 Atl104-3
    [​IMG]45 Oregon 14-6 0.592741 0.5706 Pac122-6
    [​IMG]46 Brigham Young 13-9 0.592422 0.5861 Wcc6-4
    [​IMG][​IMG]47 Xavier 15-6 0.591344 0.5675 Bige5-3
    [​IMG]48 Tennessee 12-7 0.588919 0.5897 Sec4-3
    [​IMG]49 Missouri 16-5 0.586587 0.5403 Sec4-4
    [​IMG]50 St. Mary's 15-6 0.586269 0.5527 Wcc6-3
    [HR][/HR]
    [​IMG][​IMG]51 LSU 13-6 0.586147 0.5663 Sec4-3
    [​IMG]52 Stanford 13-7 0.585231 0.5782 Pac124-4
    [​IMG][​IMG]53 South. Methodist 16-5 0.5846128 0.5128 Aac5-3
    [​IMG]54 California 14-7 0.582765 0.5573 Pac125-3
    [​IMG]55 Mississippi 14-6 0.579478 0.5479 Sec5-2
    [​IMG][​IMG]56 Indiana St. 14-5 0.5787152 0.5049 Mvc7-2
    57 Boise St. 13-6 0.578571 0.5505 Mwest5-3
    [​IMG]58 Belmont 16-7 0.5770125 0.5153 Ovc8-1
    [​IMG]59 St. Joseph's 14-6 0.576294 0.5342 Atl104-2
    [​IMG]60 Mercer 15-5 0.5761176 0.4943 Atsun9-1
    [HR][/HR]
    [​IMG]61 Wisc. Green Bay 14-4 0.5745155 0.5041 Horiz7-1
    [​IMG]62 East. Michigan 9-8 0.574015 0.5920 Midam4-3
    [​IMG]63 N.C. St. 14-8 0.569636 0.5743 Acc4-5
    [​IMG]64 Baylor 11-7 0.568025 0.5817 Big121-6
    [​IMG]65 Dayton 14-8 0.568050 0.5640 Atl102-5
    [​IMG]66 Delaware 16-7 0.5677160 0.5015 Coln8-0
    [​IMG]67 Illinois 13-8 0.566463 0.5584 Big102-6
    [​IMG]68 Nebraska 11-9 0.564921 0.5865 Big103-5
    69 Washington 13-8 0.562158 0.5607 Pac125-3
    70 New Mexico St. 15-7 0.5618131 0.5115 Wac5-2
    [HR][/HR]
    [​IMG]71 Indiana 13-8 0.561253 0.5631 Big103-5
    [​IMG]72 Louisiana Tech 16-5 0.5603198 0.4874 Cusa5-2
    [​IMG]73 Georgetown 11-8 0.560232 0.5782 Bige3-5
    [​IMG]74 Ohio 15-5 0.5601144 0.5073 Midam6-2
    [​IMG]75 St. John's 13-9 0.559837 0.5724 Bige3-6
     
  2. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    We can start with Missouri blew a chance for a big win to move them closer to safety. Lost at home to Kentucky 84-79
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    St. John's won against Marquette, keeping its slim hopes alive.

    Missouri dropped a home game to Kentucky. 16-5 but only 4-4 in a weak SEC.

    George Washington lost at Dayton. Keeps Dayton in the conversation and really hurts GW.

    North Carolina with a big win against NC State. Wolfpack is on the wrong side, but UNC starting to look like they'll Dance.

    Providence with an all-important road win at a mediocre DePaul.

    Kansas State loses at a medicore West Virginia.

    Baylor with a huge win at Oklahoma State.

    Ole Miss comes back at home to squeak past a terrible South Carolina.

    SMU helped its resume a ton by whipping Memphis.

    Minnesota (#28 RPI) with a bad home loss to Northwestern.
     
  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Xavier losing at home to Seton Hall and Wake Forest dropping a home game to GA Tech softened the Bubble a bit.

    Richmond lost at VCU. That doesn't really hurt them. Spiders are sitting at #44 and are positioned for a run to the Dance.
     
  5. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Clemson about to get a crucial win at FSU.
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Clemson was in the 80s on RPI. Gets them in the conversation. Tough loss for FSU, too.
     
  7. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Definitely still work for Clemson to do, but if they keep this winning record in the ACC up they'll be hard to deny. Lunardi already has them close. FSU has that nice RPI in the 30s but their inconsistency makes me have my doubts about them.
     
  8. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Georgetown's win over Michigan State just brought their RPI up to 64 from 78. Major work to do, but it's a lifeline.
     
  9. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Alot of Pac-12 teams in bubble territory
     
  10. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    Yup, we are killing each other in conference play. Time for the Big10 argument:

    It shows how deep the conference is.
     
  11. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    :nod:

    Conference should end up with 5-7 in the Dance. Zona looks like it will be the #1 overall seed in the tournament (better schedule than 'Cuse). UCLA is entering "lock" territory. CU's close to "lock" territory. I'm pretty confident in ASU. That's 4.

    Furd, Cal and Oregon are the big question marks, imo. I'll bet on Monty over Dawkins/Altman out of those for #5. Probably get a 6th, but I don't think 7.
     
  12. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Agreed, 7 is a bridge too far. Not impossible with Washington quietly sneaking into the fringe of the discussion as well, but everything would have to break just right.
     
  13. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    St. Joe's with a big, big home win over UMass. Bubblicious.
     
  14. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    UNLV tops Boise State 73-69. UNLV now 15-7 (6-3), Boise 15-7 (5-4)
     
  15. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Cal's win over Zona obviously puts them in with a little cushion for now.

    BYU up 12 on St. Mary's midway through 2nd half. St. Mary's is Lunardi's last team in, and BYU the first team out. Not sure how BYU, a 14-9 (6-4) West Coast Conference team is the first team out.
     
  16. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    the more I look at how this bubble is taking shape, the more confident I get that we would have to REALLY **** up down the stretch to not get in, we've got teams like BYU with 9 losses and a conference record similar to ours, except in the WCC... But then I look at our final 7 games and see how easily a major slide could happen if we aren't careful. I look at that @ USC followed by ASU at home as the linchpin of holding things together down the stretch. I don't see a win over Arizona as out of the question, but having to *rely* on a win over Zona to get us in is not advised. As weak as this bubble looks with teams from other conferences, are they ready to take a Pac squad with a losing conference record (8 wins)? I have my doubts. We need 20 regular season wins (9 conference) to feel fairly comfortable IMO. My other point of concern is if CU, ASU, Cal and Stanford are all on the bubble, we run the risk of having a very unimpressive head to head record against those teams unless we figure out our ASU woes and learn how to grab a couple road wins.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2014
  17. Flatirons2

    Flatirons2 New Member

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    Went to the KU vs UT game yesterday...KU pretty much laid an egg coming in leading the B12 and a 7 game winning steak. The Oregon win amounts to diddly now our getting in and seed is now linked to how KU does the rest of the season even that though is up in the air because of the loss of SD...pretty iffy if we don't get to 20. As a side Wiggins looked and played like he was 18 2-11 from the field and hasn't acclimated to the college game...glad I'm not Self.
     
  18. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Oregon isn't the sexy win it looked like, but their RPI is still top 50 and that's important.
     
  19. Flatirons2

    Flatirons2 New Member

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    Hopefully Oregon stays in the top 80-90 by the end of the season wouldn't doubt if a couple of other P12 teams finish higher.
     
  20. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I think Oregon can stay top 50. Have some big games which won't drop them even if they lose, and they're bound to pick up some wins. Oregon was overrated, but they aren't so horrific that they'll finish with like 14 losses. Ducks will find some wins.
     
  21. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Monday:

    Xavier 15-6 (5-3) @ Villanova 19-2 (7-1): Xavier's RPI is 36, but they've lost 2 straight and now have this tough roadie at Nova. Their stock is sliding a bit at the moment. Still safe for the time being.

    Georgetown 12-9 (3-6) @ DePaul 10-12 (2-7): I feel obligated to put Georgetown here after their win over Michigan State this past weekend. RPI now up to 62. Prior to beating Sparty they had a 5 game losing streak that looked to doom them, but they got their lifeline beating MSU. Goes without saying they have to beat DePaul or else they're toast.
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Villanova is beating Xavier like a redheaded stepchild with under 8 minutes left.
     
  23. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    General consensus is that CU is a 9 (Bracket Matrix), but keep in mind many such as Lunardi haven't updated since our win so we may go up to an 8.

    Tuesday's bubble:

    Baylor 14-7 (2-6) vs #8 Kansas 16-5 (7-1): After a horrible slide, Baylor stopped the bleeding with a seemingly huge win at Oklahoma State over the weekend. Except the problem is Oklahoma State isn't a "huge" win anymore. Okie State is sliding, sitting only 4-5 in conference with an RPI of 30. Baylor's RPI is just 57 and that 2-6 conference record is a major blemish. Here's their chance to really continue the push back to a Dance bid with a win against KU.

    Ole Miss 15-6 (6-2) @ #18 Kentucky 16-5 (6-2): Ole Miss is very much in the picture with an RPI of 56, but they lack anything close to a signature win. Here's a golden oportunity to get that much needed big win.

    St. John's 13-9 (3-6) @ Providence 16-6 (6-3): Providence is seemingly on the right side of things at the moment, but not much wiggle room. RPI 37. St. John's is fringe at best with an RPI of 76, but this would be a big win to give them a fighting chance. Big game for both.

    Maryland 13-9 (5-4) @ North Carolina 14-7 (4-4): Tar Heels are on the right side of things for now. Despite being mediocre in the ACC, their big OOC wins are the ace up their sleeve. RPI is 40. A loss would be bad news, you start walking a dangerous line when you go under .500 in your conference. Maryland's RPI is 67, have to take a team with a winning record in the ACC seriously, but Maryland strikes me as an NIT team when all is set. One decent win over Providence is all they have to offer. A win at Carolina would be huge for their hopes, but until they pick up more top 50 wins I'm skeptical. They're also hitting the difficult portion of their schedule, so not sure that winning record in ACC lasts long. Some golden opportunities for big wins, though.

    Clemson 14-6 (5-3) vs Georgia Tech 12-10 (3-6): Clemson got a nice win over the weekend at Florida State and they've beaten Duke. Still, RPI is only 74. Work to do.

    Wake Forest 14-8 (4-5) @ #11 Duke 17-5 (6-3): Wake's hopes likely crumbled with a home loss to Georgia Tech this past weekend. Wake offers wins over North Carolina and Richmond, but GT was the bad loss they had been so adept at avoiding. RPI slid all the way to 82. Still, here's a game at Duke. If there was ever a way for Wake to get right back in the picture, here's their chance.

    Missouri 16-5 (4-4) @ #3 Florida 19-2 (8-0): Missouri is probably one of the last in at the moment. RPI 53. A handful of decent wins but nothing that wows you. That Georgia loss at home may come back to bite them. If they lose at Florida they'll slide to just 4-5 in the SEC and you aren't getting a bid at season's end with a losing SEC record.
     
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  24. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    He did the bracket math yesterday and put us at 38th on the S-Curve FWIW.
     
  25. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    Since I dont know how much upward movement we are capable of at this point from an 8/9 seed, I hope we drop down to the 10/11 range....far more favorable path to the sweet 16 than a pending match up with a 1 seed.
     
  26. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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  27. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    I assume this is done every week? I find it funny that we dropped 14 spots after winning our only game we played and Spencer has been out for 3 weeks now.
     
  28. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Yeah sure, we still have to win that first round game. I'm probably more concerned with getting a favorable first round matchup than anything else right now. But sure getting 10/11 seed would be better if we can win that game. Honestly, just hoping to make the Tournament at this point -- things have changed.
     
  29. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

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    It was previously updated on 1/20/14. That was before the 2 Arizona team losses.
     
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  30. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Yeah that makes more sense now.
     

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