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Official 2023 Fall Camp Thread

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manhattanbuff said:
I wish that I got to bet against those people. My opponents are corporations who have business relationships with sports media/leagues.
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What you are describing is the perfect example of the fact that you have two kinds of gamblers.

1. The people who gamble as a business with the intent to make a profit. Like any other business this requires knowledge, skill, and a willingness to work hard enough to gain a significant advantage over your competition (the other people putting their money up.)

2. The people who gamble as recreation.

If someone is in the second group they should never gamble money that they aren't willing to lose because in the long run the people in the first group will take it from them.

Developing a system, doing the work needed to keep the inputs into the system accurate, being willing to trust the data over personal biases, having a long term strategy because there will always be short-term failures are all a part of this. These are the things that make it fun for a select group of people but that the majority of people are not willing (if they were able) to do.

Computers have changed things but the basics stay the same. In the past none of the pros had computers, now they all have access to computers. The other factors are what made a difference in the past and do today as well.

A few decades ago when I was in sales I had a good friend who was a very successful gambler. He gambled on football recreationally but his business and where he made his money was betting on the dogs. A couple of times he tried to show me how his system worked but it was clear right away that it took much more work than I was willing to put in.

I have no idea how your system works and don't want to know but I think in college football this year is going to be a tough on for a lot of the pros. The portal has created so much movement that keeping the data accurate is going to be hard.

CU is the extreme end of this but we have so many players not only switching teams but also switching levels. How will grad transfers do stepping up from FCS or G5 to the P5 level, how will guys adapt to new coaches and systems, many of the players going from on P5 to another didn't play much last year due to injury or they were behind somebody so we don't have a lot of solid game time to evaluate them on.

A system can be great but if the inputs are off then the system struggles as well.
 
TDforTD said:
I found Manhattan’s take encouraging, am I crazy for that? A ceiling of 9 wins is higher than anyone on the planet has for us - I know that would require unfathomable injury luck, but still. I am a major homer and would have had our ceiling at 7 wins lol. And he said he raised the floor and ceiling due to what he’s seen.

Depth, especially in some spots, was always going to be a major question mark. Manhattan has been pretty optimistic all offseason. We’re gonna ****ing win.
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I have the ceiling as can win every RS game but 7 wins, 3 toss ups and two projected Ls is based on their personnel, and I will be honest, I am much more flexible with these players than some of the masses

Shedeur
Horn
Antonio
Weaver
Cokes
Tank
Wells
And McCaskill

The rest, I either rate similarly or much higher because the person thinks everyone sucks at CU.

Those guys, I noticed where I have them is much higher than the masses but Shedeur has people who have him higher than I do like Emory Hunt who's an expert
 
TDforTD said:
I found Manhattan’s take encouraging, am I crazy for that? A ceiling of 9 wins is higher than anyone on the planet has for us - I know that would require unfathomable injury luck, but still. I am a major homer and would have had our ceiling at 7 wins lol. And he said he raised the floor and ceiling due to what he’s seen.

Depth, especially in some spots, was always going to be a major question mark. Manhattan has been pretty optimistic all offseason. We’re gonna ****ing win.
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I look back to my standard back in March when I believed that a four-win season would be a success. I still believe that to some degree, but since we've gotten collectively bullish on the Buffs this summer, I've bumped up my expectations a little. A six-win/bowl season would be amazing! Nine wins would be beyond extraordinary, to my way of thinking.
 
TDforTD said:
I found Manhattan’s take encouraging, am I crazy for that? A ceiling of 9 wins is higher than anyone on the planet has for us - I know that would require unfathomable injury luck, but still. I am a major homer and would have had our ceiling at 7 wins lol. And he said he raised the floor and ceiling due to what he’s seen.

Depth, especially in some spots, was always going to be a major question mark. Manhattan has been pretty optimistic all offseason. We’re gonna ****ing win.
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Considering where we’ve been, I think even the possibility of a .500+ season is highly encouraging. Colorado’s talent level has been upgraded mightily. The barrier is that most of the teams on the schedule are also returning high level talent on the field and on the sidelines. This is not an easy path. 8/9 wins are infrequent outcomes but there’s hope in a place that’s been hopeless for 2.5 seasons.
 
66BUFF said:
Detmer is the only guy I would put with Kordell on the second tier.

My third tier would be Sefo and Pesavento. Not sure where I would rank all of the others going back to the late 60's
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Klatt is definitely there with Sefo and Bobby.
 
I will be shocked if CU pulls the upset over TCU. It’s an away game against a team that has solid depth that has recruited well. Dykes is a solid coach. I suspect the game will be closer than people think, but not seeing a win.
 
#1 pick said:
All of this and no top 25 or pac predictions. Come on @manhattanbuff, i gotta see what you got and if it's the goods.

Let's see who got more of the goods, me or you. I just watch a lot of football, listen to coaches, and know tendencies extremely well. I don't have any cpu algorithms or anything like that. I actually think that makes you a lot better for teams I don't watch but for teams I watch and heavily watch, idk, I think I can compete. I was one of the top Draftkings guys for years and I never create a cpu algorithm once or paid anyone for anything.
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What were your ML and ATS results last year?
 
#1 pick said:
Thats a good question.

I didn't know he was a professional expert but I could tell he was someone that is serious business.

I was just saying, I want to test me v. Him in what I do know. I am knowledgeable and have done well in Vegas and didn't need any tools to do it or hedging to do it as long as it's in my realm of what I know. I've beat many pros before. Been beat by pros as well. I want to test my confidence v. His elite algorithm.
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Post your bets on the thread.
 
#1 pick said:
Thats a good question.

I didn't know he was a professional expert but I could tell he was someone that is serious business.

I was just saying, I want to test me v. Him in what I do know. I am knowledgeable and have done well in Vegas and didn't need any tools to do it or hedging to do it as long as it's in my realm of what I know. I've beat many pros before. Been beat by pros as well. I want to test my confidence v. His elite algorithm.
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I’d bet you process much of the same information that @manhattanbuff does but just in a different way.
 
Uncle Ken said:
Was he not good at Arky? If I remember correctly, that's where your SEC family connections are
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He was basically the reason for their under performance last year. He would have the O rolling, then just call the weirdest **** and stall them out. TE sneaks, double reverse flea flickers, plus I will try to find you a list of all the QBs he’s almost had murdered due to his scheme.

But yes, that’s where my daughter goes so I’ve got a pretty aggressive rooting interest. Plus, the starting QB at TCU is Chad Morris’ son, who was the guy that set that program back a decade.
 
LesGrossman said:
Are you implying your model beats the battle-tested system of:

>wake up at 9am
>hungover
>take a piss
>”oh damn there’s CFB today”
>pours cereal bowl
>sits on couch in boxers
>eat cereal and open draftkings
>bet on G5 traps you know nothing about

My friends have used it to great success. I think they’re only a few K in the hole
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Everybody knows hangover cure is a greasy cheeseburger with a Coke on CFB gameday
 
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