Menu
What's new
By:
Filters
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!

Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

Robert Sorell said:
Did they fully explicate how they grouped nearly comparable teams?

I don't find Bama and FSU this year to be nearly comparable.

The first three that are nearly comparable are UW, Michigan, and FSU.

Then out of Bama, Texas, Georgia, tOSU it's Texas then Bama because of conference champ and H2H.

Even if you group FSU and Bama, I see that as a draw.

-H2H = n/a

- conf. champs = tie

- SOS = the slimmest of margins for Bama, no metric for determining SOS is prescribed. I reject the ordinal rank of SOS because the size of the league for FBS is so big. The raw values aren't as disparate as one would believe from looking at the ordinal rank for FSU and Bama. Bama has the better top teams on their schedule, FSU has more good but not great opponents. Quality losses count less than quality wins so Bamas SOS advantage is discounted a bit.

- Quality of teams w/ injury considerations = FSU by slimmest of margins, over the past two weeks both teams played in state rivals and legit conference championship opponents. FSU won both by larger margins against marginally worse opponents. So it's a wash based on available data about the teams. If we're discounting for FSU's QB injury, we also have to rebate them a little bit for the opportunity to have 3 weeks of practice with Rodemaker finally getting first team reps and modify their gameplan accordingly. All told FSU slim margin.

So that's a draw. Did you read the protocol in a way that tells you what to do now?

The fundamental problem with the grouping, then comparing process is that FSU gets penalized twice for the injury. They're not in Bama's comparable group if they have JT. So because losing JT brought them down to Bama's level we now ding them for the injury again to rank them within group.

The fact that the published protocol neglects to weight factors, define the size of groups that are comparable, or how the voters should chose the ranks in the rounds of polling to get comparable groups, or how SOS should be calculated is no accident. It's all the window dressing of an objective process without any of the important meat in the bones to justify making decisions that benefit the earning potential of their system.
Click to expand...
The SoS is directional and confirmed by numerous sources. The Committee has access to different cuts. If you don’t like the ordinal version (I get your point), I’m sure they can calculate it as a continuous variable using win percentage.. I don’t think FSU was in the first grouping the last week. See the article from Dinich for more details on Travis unavailability and its impact on the Committee. Travis not being available is not a net “win” for FSU. Their team is impacted. They are less competitive. (See models in this thread).

The Committee (virtually all of them evidently) dont see it like you.
 
Buffnik said:
All I'm sure of is that if FSU had some key people on the fence about taking the financial hit of leaving the ACC and it was preventing their exit - that isn't a thing anymore. They're gone if it's in any way feasible to do so.
Click to expand...
I think NCSU will flip on GoR. I don’t think FSU will have to go it alone.
 
Buffnik said:
All I'm sure of is that if FSU had some key people on the fence about taking the financial hit of leaving the ACC and it was preventing their exit - that isn't a thing anymore. They're gone if it's in any way feasible to do so.
Click to expand...
Yep, this will be the end of the ACC. Their will not be any pushback from NCST on grant of rights. This will be a major post bowl season explosion and free for all on realignment. Get it on and let's finish this crazy carousel ride!
 
hawg1 said:
The SoS is directional and confirmed by numerous sources. The Committee has access to different cuts. If you don’t like the ordinal version (I get your point), I’m sure they can calculate it as a continuous variable using win percentage.. I don’t think FSU was in the first grouping the last week. See the article from Dinich for more details on Travis unavailability and its impact on the Committee. Travis not being available is not a net “win” for FSU. Their team is impacted. They are less competitive. (See models in this thread).

The Committee (virtually all of them evidently) dont see it like you.
Click to expand...
I don't think the injury is a net win, and didn't say it was. I'm saying it's a net loss, but it's partially mitigated by the chance to give extended work to the new QB1, that wasn't possible to do the last two weeks.

Dinich's article points out that Michigan and Washington are easy ins because of their undefeated seasons, the only reason FSU had to be compared to Bama is because of the Travis injury. That's where the double injury penalty happens. I get that you can argue the protocol is constructed that way, and that's just how it works out. At a minimum that's a reason to reassess the protocol.
 
Robert Sorell said:
I don't think the injury is a net win, and didn't say it was. I'm saying it's a net loss, but it's partially mitigated by the chance to give extended work to the new QB1, that wasn't possible to do the last two weeks.

Dinich's article points out that Michigan and Washington are easy ins because of their undefeated seasons, the only reason FSU had to be compared to Bama is because of the Travis injury. That's where the double injury penalty happens. I get that you can argue the protocol is constructed that way, and that's just how it works out. At a minimum that's a reason to reassess the protocol.
Click to expand...
Would anyone here honestly believe that if there was a Washington v Florida State Semi-Final, even without Travis there is a decent chance that Washington gets beat? I am rooting for the Puppies, but they are not exactly a juggernaut and could get beat by anyone
 
Dark Bohner said:
At what point does SOS value exceed the value of loss?
Click to expand...
When the Committee members agree on it in a vote. That’s why they group and look at resumes side by side by side on many factors. They look closely at the details of the SoS and the loss.
 
manhattanbuff said:
Without JTravis, UDub wins by double digits more than half of the time.
Click to expand...
Not sure that UW scores on that Defense more than 24 points
UW has given up quite a lot of points this year and has won like 8 games by single digits
Travis is amazing, but they still have a crap ton of talent all over, likely better than Washington in a couple places and probably more speed
Just another argument that ****s on the committee
Michigan v Texas
UW v Florida State
I think both games would still be close
 
4BienemyTDs said:
Not sure that UW scores on that Defense more than 24 points
UW has given up quite a lot of points this year and has won like 8 games by single digits
Travis is amazing, but they still have a crap ton of talent all over, likely better than Washington in a couple places and probably more speed
Just another argument that ****s on the committee
Michigan v Texas
UW v Florida State
I think both games would still be close
Click to expand...
Oregon has a comparable DL to F$U and UDub ran all over them. Penix got hurt in the first Oregon game so his performance level lagged in the games afterward. But, he is healthy now.

With all due, I’ll take my extremely comprehenive prediction system over your hunches.
 
4BienemyTDs said:
Not sure that UW scores on that Defense more than 24 points
UW has given up quite a lot of points this year and has won like 8 games by single digits
Travis is amazing, but they still have a crap ton of talent all over, likely better than Washington in a couple places and probably more speed
Just another argument that ****s on the committee
Michigan v Texas
UW v Florida State
I think both games would still be close
Click to expand...
Not sure how FSU moves the ball and scores more n that game. We’ll get to see what they do against UGA without Travis.
 
hawg1 said:
Watt recommended emergency 6 team playoff. Michigan and UDub get byes. The other four play according to seeds. Would be great this year and all years.
Click to expand...
Ohio State would disagree with the greatness of this situation.

This year seems a little uncharacteristic with the number of teams within arms length of each other at the top, so in most years 6 could be a sufficient number.
 
241Volcanos said:
You SoS formula is ridiculous. Look at common opponents, conf record vs others, and…..W-L.
Click to expand...
Opponents’ opponents makes a more valid model. All data point toward Bama.

Common opponents and WL are resume variables, not SOS, so that’s not a good suggestion.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Ohio State would disagree with the greatness of this situation.

This year seems a little uncharacteristic with the number of teams within arms length of each other at the top, so in most years 6 could be a sufficient number.
Click to expand...
True. Never had this many good teams with good resumes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top