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Polls, rankings and bowl projections

o-line is gelling.
defense has an identity.
Shenault is a legitimate national award candidate.
Montez has grown exponentially from last season, to the point that we debate if he will take the money and run at the end of the season.

the ESPN new math isn't worth a hot cup of fat.
 
Darth Snow said:
2d most likely outcome according to S&P. Totally plausible.
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Losing 4 of 7 means we end up at 8-4 on the year with a halfway decent bowl game and a decent shot at finishing the year ranked.

Most of us here would have taken that in a heartbeat at the beginning of the year.
 
TSchekler said:
I agree, but I think it'd be disingenuous to think that expectations don't change as the season goes on. If CU had lost to Nebraska and ASU, they'd be 3-2 and I think the 6-7 win expectation most people had would be about right. At 5-0, however, I think people would be pretty disappointed if CU ended the season with 6-7 wins, even though we'd be playing a bowl game. At this point, 8 wins would be pretty meh to me, honestly. At this point, 9 wins is my expectation, as that is a 4-3 record in these last 7 games, which shouldn't be viewed as improbable by any means.
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Nine seems right to me as well. Break the bowl losing streak to get to 10 and that is a fun season!
 
InTheBuff said:
who's better ? Wazzu or Utah ?
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Well, Wazzu just beat Utah, didn’t they? So I’ll go with Wazzu. But on a neutral site, I think I’d take Utah.

I don’t think CU loses to either team, though. CU is more balanced across the board.
 
Not Sure said:
Well, Wazzu just beat Utah, didn’t they? So I’ll go with Wazzu. But on a neutral site, I think I’d take Utah.

I don’t think CU loses to either team, though. CU is more balanced across the board.
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Went to the Utah game last year, I get it's a new team but still can't say I'm super confident we stop Moss.
 
Not Sure said:
Losing 4 of 7 means we end up at 8-4 on the year with a halfway decent bowl game and a decent shot at finishing the year ranked.

Most of us here would have taken that in a heartbeat at the beginning of the year.
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Not now. We're 5-0. I want more. Frankly, we all should. Enough talk about the Holiday, Redbox, and Sun Bowls for right now. Think bigger. We've got a great shot to play in the Rose Bowl, and I personally think we'll be a factor in the CFP conversation (there WILL be more chaos-who gets victimized remains to be seen) if we get out of these next two weeks with at least a split. I want that. Would another trip to San Antonio be a nice consolation prize? For sure-especially given we might get Texas or Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl this year. Be greedy people.
 
ahoelsken said:
Not now. We're 5-0. I want more. Frankly, we all should. Enough talk about the Holiday, Redbox, and Sun Bowls for right now. Think bigger. We've got a great shot to play in the Rose Bowl, and I personally think we'll be a factor in the CFP conversation (there WILL be more chaos-who gets victimized remains to be seen) if we get out of these next two weeks with at least a split. I want that. Would another trip to San Antonio be a nice consolation prize? For sure-especially given we might get Texas or Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl this year. Be greedy people.
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At the end of the year, how many ranked teams will CU have beaten? How many teams above 0.500? The are key metrics for the CFP.
 
hawg1 said:
At the end of the year, how many ranked teams will CU have beaten? How many teams above 0.500? The are key metrics for the CFP.
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While an undefeated P5 will never get left out, we would have beaten...

ASU
USC
UW twice
UA
WSU
Utah
Cal

Those could all be teams with winning records. More than enough to get in the top 4.
 
TSchekler said:
Nope. Key metrics are wins and losses. Tie breakers come down to all that stuff out of a team’s control.
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Not sure where you get your info, but these metrics are noted repeatedly by those that have gone through mocks. And are often cited by the chairman in his post-ranking comments.

Maybe you response was sarcasm.
 
Medford M. said:
While an undefeated P5 will never get left out, we would have beaten...

ASU
USC
UW twice
UA
WSU
Utah
Cal

Those could all be teams with winning records. More than enough to get in the top 4.
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Not sure. Depends on other conference champions and runners up. That’s wins against 7 (maybe) 0.500 teams and one (?) ranked team. Not sure that dog will hunt.
 
hawg1 said:
Not sure where you get your info, but these metrics are noted repeatedly by those that have gone through mocks. And are often cited by the chairman in his post-ranking comments.

Maybe you response was sarcasm.
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You were responding to a post about a 5-0 CU team continuing to win and become a factor in the CFP conversation. If CU wins out and is 13-0, they are in the CFP regardless of all your ancillary criteria. No sarcasm, that was my point. Wins > Everything else.
 
hawg1 said:
At the end of the year, how many ranked teams will CU have beaten? How many teams above 0.500? The are key metrics for the CFP.
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You totally missed the point of my post, but let me say a couple things to respond to you before I clear up where I was looking to go-we're halfway through the season. We're going to have a lot more chaos.

My point is this-we're one of the 11 remaining unbeatens in the country, and the only one west of the Mississippi River......and yet, we're still talking about how much fun a Holiday Bowl appearance would be. If we're 3-2 right now, I don't have a problem with it. Think bigger. We've got a fairly good chance to be the Pac 12 representative to the Rose Bowl this year, and if we split the next two, I think we're in the conversation for the CFP. Not a sure thing to get in, but you're going to hear "Colorado" a fair amount on ESPN's ranking release shows on Tuesday nights if we get out of October at 7-1 or better. If we wind up 8-4, are any of us going to be calling for MacIntyre's head? No. I take that back-DrunkRalphie might. Am I going to be a little disappointed if that happens? Yes.
 
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hawg1 said:
Not sure. Depends on other conference champions and runners up. That’s wins against 7 (maybe) 0.500 teams and one (?) ranked team. Not sure that dog will hunt.
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Won't even be a question.

I'd be really disappointed if the committee looked at AP and Coaches poll rankings at time of game to decide the top 4.

There's real analytical ranking metrics that offer a much better profile of teams.
 
Medford M. said:
Won't even be a question.

I'd be really disappointed if the committee looked at AP and Coaches poll rankings at time of game to decide the top 4.

There's real analytical ranking metrics that offer a much better profile of teams.
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CFP gets good data, indeed.
 
TSchekler said:
You were responding to a post about a 5-0 CU team continuing to win and become a factor in the CFP conversation. If CU wins out and is 13-0, they are in the CFP regardless of all your ancillary criteria. No sarcasm, that was my point. Wins > Everything else.
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13-0 Bama/UGA
12-1 UGA/Bama
13-0 Clemson
12-0 ND
13-0/12-1 tOSU

All those trump undefeated CU.

A 13-0 WVU likely does too. So does a 12-1 Wisconsin that wins conf championship.

Assuredly, there will be attrition. There always is. Undefeated CU is not a resume lock. Far from it as discussed today at length on Campus Conversation.
 
hawg1 said:
13-0 Bama/UGA
12-1 UGA/Bama
13-0 Clemson
12-0 ND
13-0/12-1 tOSU

All those trump undefeated CU.

A 13-0 WVU likely does too. So does a 12-1 Wisconsin that wins conf championship.

Assuredly, there will be attrition. There always is. Undefeated CU is not a resume lock. Far from it as discussed today at length on Campus Conversation.
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In the world of extreme hypotheticals that we’re living in during this discussion, an undefeated CU team getting in is assuming there are no more than two undefeated teams at the end, as evidenced by the fact that there never has been more than that. But yes, I can concede that in the event there are 5 total undefeateds and another 2-3 one loss teams, CU will probably not make it.
 
hawg1 said:
13-0 Bama/UGA
12-1 UGA/Bama
13-0 Clemson
12-0 ND
13-0/12-1 tOSU

All those trump undefeated CU.

A 13-0 WVU likely does too. So does a 12-1 Wisconsin that wins conf championship.

Assuredly, there will be attrition. There always is. Undefeated CU is not a resume lock. Far from it as discussed today at length on Campus Conversation.
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I disagree with you again-and I'll go back to my no viable alternatives argument-Alabama got in because there wasn't an alternative that was viable last year. Wisconsin lost to 11-2 Big 10 Champ Ohio State (who had an ugly 31 point loss to Iowa........who finished 7-5). If you have a 12-1 SEC Championship game loser and you have 12-1 Pac 12 Champion Washington or Colorado, the Pac 12 champion goes.
 
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