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Predicting the Field of 68 via RPI

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    This is actually a really great indicator, historically.

    What I'm going to do is give any team that isn't from the Big 6 (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC) a -4 to their RPI number to reflect the way the committee tends to underseed them or is more likely to leave a Top 50 team out.

    #12 SMU and #17 Louisville removed from consideration due to post-season bans.

    We'll start with the 32 auto-bids for Conference Champions:

    ACC: North Carolina
    America East: Stony Brook
    AAC: UConn or Memphis (Sunday final)
    A-10: Saint Joseph's
    A-Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
    Big 12: Kansas
    Big East: Seton Hall
    Big Sky: Weber State
    Big South: UNC Asheville
    Big Ten: Purdue or Michigan State (Sunday final)
    Big West: Hawaii
    Colonial: UNC Wilmington
    C-USA: Middle Tennessee
    Horizon: Green Bay
    Ivy: Yale
    MAAC: Iona
    MAC: Buffalo
    MEAC: Hampton
    MVC: Northern Iowa
    MWC: Fresno State
    Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
    OVC: Austin Peay
    Pac-12: Utah or Oregon
    Patriot: Holy Cross
    SEC: Kentucky
    Southern: Chattanooga
    Southland: Stephen F. Austin
    Summit: South Dakota State
    Sun Belt: AR-Little Rock
    SWAC: Southern
    WAC: Cal State Bakersfield
    WCC: Gonzaga

    Potential bubble impact from:
    AAC if Memphis wins
    MAC if Buffalo wins
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2016
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  2. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Based on what we assume will happen with the 32 auto-bids, here are the 36 at-large teams based on RPI:
    1. Virginia
    2. Villanova
    3. Oklahoma
    4. Xavier
    5. Utah
    6. Miami
    7. West Virginia
    8. Purdue
    9. Maryland
    10. Cal
    11. Texas A&M
    12. Duke
    13. Dayton
    14. Iowa State
    15. Indiana
    16. Baylor
    17. Arizona
    18. Texas
    19. Iowa
    20. Saint Bonaventure
    21. Notre Dame
    22. Oregon State
    23. Akron
    24. Colorado
    25. Texas Tech
    26. VCU
    27. Saint Mary's
    28. Princeton
    29. Providence
    30. San Diego State
    31. Wisconsin
    32. Cincinnati
    33. Wichita State
    34. Valparaiso
    35. USC
    36. Pittsburgh
    First 4 Out
    Monmouth
    Hofstra
    Florida
    Michigan

    Next 4 Out
    Butler
    Tulsa
    Temple
    Vanderbilt

    Next-Next 4 Out
    Georgia
    South Carolina
    Davidson
    William & Mary

    My guess is that Princeton will not get an at-large. Hard to justify the Ivy as a 2-bid league. Also, I can't imagine that Hofstra gets in as an at-large. Last, I have trouble seeing Akron selected.

    Going away from straight RPI, I put Monmouth, Vanderbilt and Butler into the Dance as the replacements. I still need to think about that, though.

    If a team did not make its way into this post or the conference tourney post, you should be able to forget about it making the Dance.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2016
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  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Stony Brook punched its ticket.

    Makes for a better tourney with them in. NBA prospect in the post and athletic guards. They can beat someone.

    (Post #1 updated)
     
  4. scoob

    scoob Club Member Club Member

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    Warney 43 and 10 today. If you can put up those type of numbers in a D1 conference tourney final at any level you gotta be pretty good.
     
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  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Hampton took the MEAC title.
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Michigan got handled by Purdue. OP adjusted for their RPI drop.
     
  7. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Are we looking at 3 bids for the $ec, realistically?

    I know espin would like to see 5 (or more) just to pad the coffers, and they'll make a fuss if the committee puts in fewer. Screw 'em both.
     
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I don't know how you can go beyond 3 bids for the SEC this year. And the 3rd is sketchy.
     
  9. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Yeah, the conference just doesn't impress me this year. And it might be a bit telling since, iirc, the b12/$ec challenge games were not one sided like I thought they would be.

    PS - I'm secretly pulling for a Dawg upset over Kantukee.
     
  10. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah. The SEC deserves 2, but I think one of SC or Vandy slips in
     
  11. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Arkansas - Little Rock won its conference semi. Final is Sunday, but the Sun Belt is a 1-bid league so I'd assume that despite ARL's RPI that would be Top 50 with a loss they'd end up getting left out. Better tourney if they make it, though. That's a 28-4 squad that won at SDSU and at Tulsa. They could beat somebody.
     
  12. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Middle Tennessee beats Old Dominion for the C-USA bid.

    That's the result I wanted to see. Physically and athletically, Middle Tennessee looks like a Power 6 team. They're dangerous in the Dance.
     
  13. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    UConn winning over Temple opens up a spot on the bubble for someone.

    Could be Memphis if they win the AAC by beating Tulane and then taking down UConn.

    Otherwise, someone else moving in. I'll update Post #2 in a minute once LiveRPI updates.
     
  14. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Fresno State winning the MWC probably just stole a bid. Would be hard to leave SDSU out of the Dance.
     
  15. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Akron losing puts them out there as a Top 40 RPI as a potential bubble team.
     
  16. Swish

    Swish Half a bubble off Club Member

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    Very impressive Nik. Thanks for these excellent labors!!!
     
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  17. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Weber State wins the Big Sky.
     
  18. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Stephen F. Austin won the Southland.

    For the most part, the best teams are winning these 1-bid leagues. That helps the overall quality of the tournament a lot.

    We really haven't seen those crazy runs with upset champs in any leagues this year other than Holy Cross. Dance is going to be fun.
     
  19. ahoelsken

    ahoelsken Well-Known Member

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    Palm has South Carolina (really the only real possibility other than aggy and Kentucky) out. They played nobody OOC, and didn't do much in the SEC other than the road win they have over A&M. If I'm in that room, I can't put that weak a profile in the tournament.
     
  20. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    If I'm taking a 3rd SEC team, it's Vanderbilt. Similar to Florida in that a lot of the SOS resume was built by losing to good teams in the non-conference. But they went 11-7 in the SEC while Florida went 9-9. Vandy's got better players than UF, too. I wouldn't even consider South Carolina.
     
  21. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Big game to watch today is the Memphis vs UConn matchup. A Memphis win bursts someone's bubble. That game may not be finished when the selection show starts.
     
  22. Eggon

    Eggon Club Member Club Member

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  23. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    St. Joe's and Arkansas-Little Rock punch their tickets.

    Little Rock is a dangerous team for a high seed.
     

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