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Stat that could define the team...

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by KingPants, Aug 6, 2007.

  1. KingPants

    KingPants Club Member Club Member

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    I was going through the media guide on line for the Buffs and looking at the recaps of the games last year (not sure why I wanted to torture myself like that), but here is the only stat that matters from last year.

    In quarters one through three:
    Opponents points: 144
    CU's points: 142

    In the forth quarter:
    Opponents points: 106
    CU's points: 40

    If we can reverse that, then we will have the kind of season that we all want.
    (My season prediction by the way: 6-6, but strong end to the season to point to a double digit win total in 2008).
     
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  2. SJBuff

    SJBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Wow, that is a telling stat and it tells us exactly what we already knew. The D carried the team for 3 qtrs but since O sucked the D never got a break by the 4th they were out of gas.

    If the O can move the chains, even just a little, so the D gets a break I think the D will have the steam to keep it close in the 4th and we will be able to pull out a few more W's. I'm going with 6-6 and finishing strong as well. :thumbsup:
     
  3. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Take another look in your media guide and see what the third down conversion rates were in each game. You'll see that for each game CU won, we had a better third down conversion rate than our opponent.

    Other than the score, third down conversion rate is the most important statistic as far as I'm concerned. Third down conversions keep drives alive, improve field position, and time of possession. Conversely, failing to stop the opponents on third down allows them to have better field position, time of possession, etc.

    Just watch and see how the Buffs do on third down this year. It's pretty important.
     
  4. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Definitely, having an offense that can get out of their own way will be a huge help to the defense. Too many 3-and-outs and the D is gassed in the fourth quarter. I think the other thing behind those stats is that our passing game was so brutal that once we got behind and closer to the end of the game, and had to start throwing more, the turnovers and incompletes just started snowballing and giving other teams even more chances to score. Improve the passing game and get the running game back on track (and one should help the other) and I think that stat evens out pretty fast.

    I'm with both of you on the 6-6 prediction, give or take a game... :huh:
     
  5. BamBamBuff

    BamBamBuff Member

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    To build on to this because you all have very strong theories, I'll add one. How many times did we drive into their RED ZONE with out any points. For some reason last year seemed to have way more than my memory serves me! This is where Hawk used alot of 4th downs too! The S/C program should improve this immeasurably!
     
  6. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Hawk did have a bit of an obsession with going for it on fourth down. I think that was fundamentally because he knew his offense wasn't going to get him that many chances, and he felt he needed to get TDs out of the times they did get in the red zone instead of settling for FGs. I think he also hoped, on a secondary basis, that he could pass on some of that gung-ho attitude to his team. Of course, that works better if you convert some of those 4th down tries... Either way, I do think that if the O can move the ball better this year, you'll see Hawk taking fewer risks like all the 4th down tries we had last year...
     
  7. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    A lot of good points have been made on this thread. To me, the defining stats for a football team are third down offense/defense and red zone offense/defense. If you win those battles during the course of a game, you're going to give yourself a great chance to win the game. Third down offense/defense usually goes a long way in determining field position (along with the return game). We were abysmal in that regard last year. Between Hawk electing to go for a ton of 4th down tries and also trotting out Crosby for a lot of 50+ yard field goal tries, we put ourselves behind the eight ball far too often last year. The players need to improve on their execution and Hawk needs to improve on his coaching-he needs to play field position a lot more this year for this team to be successful.
     
  8. FChairbanks

    FChairbanks muthaka slayer Club Member

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    i don't think there is any question that hawk will put more emphasis on the field position game on fourth down this year. i think he felt obligated to give crosby as many chances as he did last year after designating him the star of the team from day one. this year we better be making our opponents start with a long field if we can't get the ball inside the 45 on third down...
     
  9. SBG

    SBG Formerly known as EFNMB Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm a fan of Hawk, but if there is one thing that seriously makes me :confused::confused: is the fact that on opponent's 3rd down and long we'd rush 2 or 3 guys. Ridiculous. When you have guys like Wright that can put on a good pass rush combined with the fact that most college QBs are mostly young and inexperienced you don't give them all day to make a play. The best corners can't defend all day. However, I also remember a game where Hawk blitzed on 3rd and long (against Tech?) so it was man coverage and Brown, I think, missed his guy who strolled down the field off of a WR screen. Tough play and tackling a guy in the open field by yourself as a true freshman is hard, so I wouldn't say it was Brown's fault.

    Had we been more consistent on 3rd down playcalling and put Crosby out on more 4th downs I think we may have won 2-3 more games. I like it when coaches take risks, but not until it's almost crucial. If we had the lead going into the 4th quarter things may have been different. Playing from behind with an offense that is struggling will kill you nearly every time as other teams can just run it up the gut and eat up the clock, especially when your defense has been on the field all day.

    Oh, does anyone have stats on how many the O and D averaged last year? I thought I read somewhere that CU ran 8-11 more D plays than most teams and yet our D was still somewhat highly ranked.
     
  10. LincolnBuff

    LincolnBuff Active Member

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    That was what was so frustrating last year is being close going into the 4th only to see the team fall apart.

    This year if we can put together any semblance of a passing game we should have a much better year.

    Looking at our schedule I think 7-5 is attainable but 2008 is the year I think could be very good.
     
  11. AustinTxBuff

    AustinTxBuff Well-Known Member

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    We're still undefeated, so I'm going with 14-0 record.

    One thing is for sure, let's get the season started!
     
  12. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

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    By kicking the **** out of little brother from the north:thumbsup:
     
  13. SuperiorBuff

    SuperiorBuff Well-Known Member

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    I have a feeling that you are wrong on this. I think we will have a higher success rate, but the chances will still be taken. I think it is the way Hawk ticks.
     
  14. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    Statistics are for losers! :wink2::lol:
     
  15. FChairbanks

    FChairbanks muthaka slayer Club Member

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    do you think eberhart has the leg to convince hawk to try a fg from 55+ on a regular basis?

    i'm skeptical...

    i think hawk put a lot of emphasis on crosby's leg last year. the first thing he said when he addressed the team was, "which one is crosby?" the fact that crosby stayed last year showed a huge amount of loyalty to the team; hawk felt obligated to pay that back (imho).

    now that he doesn't have that "obligation" i think he will think twice about trying for points from 55 vs putting the opponents inside the 20 and using the defensive talent to advance our field position.

    at least i hope he thinks twice about it...

    :gobuffs:
     
  16. SuperiorBuff

    SuperiorBuff Well-Known Member

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    The long field goal attempts will have to change because Crosby type legs are rare. What I meant is that I don't see him changing strategies to go for in on 4th downs that we don't think he should.
     
  17. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    I thought that Hawkins tried to kick a lot of long field goals last year (wasn't any other way we were going to score) but at the same time- if we were inside the 20 yard line, he was going for it. He wanted the team to develop an attitude, which it never did.

    Crosby was a special talent. Eberhart doesn't have to be special- just steady.
     
  18. 4DemBuffs

    4DemBuffs Most admired poster Club Member

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    i think you all make valid points. im definitly falling into sackys corner with the 3rd down conversions. such a huge part of the game especially in 3rd and long. that being said....

    as i see it, last year the O was 3-9. the D was 7-3-1.

    here is where i get that stat. IMO, the O should be able to score at the very least one TD per quarter. that is 28 points. the D should hold the other team to, well duh, less than that but at the most 17.

    if CU's O were to score one TD per quarter in each of last years games, CU would have been 8-3-1.

    i put the -1 in there because Mizzu scored 28. that would have ment a tie and thus overtime. who knows then.

    now, think about it. one TD per quarter. in a lot of instances, CU was not far off from doing just that. they just lacked the punch needed to get the ball into the endzone.

    now, i dont expect miracles this year. a nice bowl game would be good. but, the Buffs were damn close to being a "decent" ball club last year. IMO, due to what i have posted above, they were. well, the D anyway.

    now, i dont expect CU's D to be quite as good this year. losing the leading sacker in the league and the LB troubles will not help. however, they should not be swiss cheese.

    the Buffs have a few years to go but, last year was not as bad as it seemed(well, ya. it was bad to watch the O). give these kids some time.

    THE BIGGEST STAT OF THIS YEAR?

    that will not win a ton this year.

    that has the potential to win a ton in 2 to 3 years.

    this year will be hard, as will next. lets look for steps of improvement. not one step forward, two steps back as we have seen the last few years.

    be patient with these kids. they will be winners. we need to give them the time to develope and learn within the system.
     

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