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The Hypothetical 64 - Who Gets Left Out?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by BuffNut99, Aug 15, 2011.

  1. BuffNut99

    BuffNut99 Club Member Club Member

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    I've been trying to imagine what four 16-team conferences would look like, and in the process, determine who gets included and excluded. Basically some current BCS teams are going to get the shaft, and some NAQ teams are going to get dream promotions.

    There are currently 67 BCS teams (including TCU in the Big East in 2012), so a minimum of 3 need to get booted. I listed under "Others" those schools who, to varying degrees, will receive anything from automatic invitations somewhere (Notre Dame) to cursory consideration (Colorado State) and everything inbetween.

    I'm making the assumption that the Big 12 and Big East will be picked apart and that the ACC will remain intact (to be the 4th mega conference with the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12), with all of its current members, only to add four (the assumption being that they would add but not subtract, i.e. drop Duke or Wake).

    I bolded every team who I believe is automatically in the elite 64; I italicized every current BCS team who needs to worry. According to my math, there are 61 teams (bolded) who figure to be in a mega conference... which will be the last to the dance, and who goes where?


    ACC (12)
    Boston College
    Clemson
    Florida State
    Maryland
    North Carolina State
    Wake Forest
    Duke
    Georgia Tech
    Miami (FL)
    North Carolina
    Virginia
    Virginia Tech

    Big 12 (10)
    Baylor
    Iowa State
    Kansas
    Kansas State
    Missouri
    Oklahoma
    Oklahoma State
    Texas
    Texas A&M
    Texas Tech

    Big East (9)
    Cincinnati
    Connecticut
    Louisville
    Pittsburgh
    Rutgers
    South Florida
    Syracuse
    TCU
    West Virginia

    Big 10 (12)
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Ohio State
    Penn State
    Purdue
    Wisconsin
    Iowa
    Michigan
    Michigan State
    Minnesota
    Nebraska
    Northwestern

    Pac12 (12)
    Arizona
    Arizona State
    Colorado
    UCLA
    USC
    Utah
    California
    Oregon
    Oregon State
    Stanford
    Washington
    Washington State

    SEC (12)
    Alabama
    Arkansas
    Auburn
    LSU
    Mississippi State
    Ole Miss
    Florida
    Georgia
    Kentucky
    South Carolina
    Tennessee
    Vanderbilt

    Others:
    Notre Dame
    Boise State
    BYU

    Nevada
    Fresno State
    Houston
    SMU
    Southern Miss
    Colorado State
    New Mexico
    San Diego State
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2011
  2. Fight CU

    Fight CU Club Member Club Member

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    I think Baylor gets 2 spots. 1 for basketball and 1 for football

    -Kenny S. (TX)
     
  3. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    no way Kansas gets booted. I would add:

    Kansas
    Texas Tech
    Connecticut
     
  4. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    Yeah is this conference going to be for football only? Or are we including all scholarship sports.

    No way Kansas gets left out.
     
  5. CUFan

    CUFan Welcome back Club Member

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    Looking at the others list CSU has no business even being considered. If the 64 team deal happens, they are screwed.
     
  6. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    for KU:

    pro, AAU member U. one of the top 2-3 basketball programs of all-time
    con, football appears to be driving this thing completely. tied to be partnered with KSU, at least 15 months ago.

    best for KU would be a Big Ten scenario (since AAU membership could be a factor)....more likely, Big East (possibly with KSU....which would be bonus lucky times 1000000 for KSU).
     
  7. buffted

    buffted New Member

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    UConn is in before TCU, KU is in before Boise St
     
  8. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    If you take all the teams currently listed in the AQ conferences plus Notre Dame, BYU, Boise you get 70 teams meaning to get to 64 you cut six.

    Definite cuts:
    Baylor
    Iowa State
    UConn
    South Florida

    Probable cuts:
    Rutgers
    Boise

    This leaves a few schools hoping like crazy that Rutgers and/or Boise don't get their spot. These could include K-State, Texas Tech (probably safe because of politics,)Cincinnati, TCU (See Texas Tech),
     
  9. Fight CU

    Fight CU Club Member Club Member

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    under this scenario - the NCAA will cease to exist as a governing body
     
  10. CUFan

    CUFan Welcome back Club Member

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    What about Air Force, Army and Navy?
     
  11. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    KU football, last five years:
    34-28
    Orange Bowl - W
    Insight Bowl - W

    Vanderbilt football, last five years:
    20-41
    Music City Bowl - W

    Rutgers football, last five years:
    40-24
    Texas Bowl - W
    International Bowl - W
    PapaJohns Bowl - W
    St. Petersburg Bowl - W

    Cincinnati football, last five years:
    45-20
    International Bowl - W
    PapaJohns Bowl - W
    Orange Bowl - L
    Sugar Bowl - L

    CU football, last five years:
    21-40
    Independence Bowl - L
     
  12. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    UConn football, last five years:
    37-27
    Mienecke Car Care Bowl - L
    International Bowl - W
    PapaJohns Bowl - W
    Fiesta Bowl - L
     
  13. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I don't think Rutgers is particularly in a bad position right now. Could see the ACC or even the B1G snatching them as they're the closest major school to NYC (yes, I know no one in the northeast cares about football sans Penn State, but we all know the markets obsession). Pivotal season for them coming up
     
  14. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    I think the last few spots could come down to which conference needs a couple schools to fill out to 16. I agree with you that the 4 survivors would be the Pac-12, Big [strike]10 [/strike] [strike]11[/strike] 12, the $EC and the ACC. So to start filling these leagues (existing members in italics, teams getting invites in blue above):


    Pac-12


    Arizona
    Arizona State
    Colorado
    UCLA
    USC
    Utah
    California
    Oregon
    Oregon State
    Stanford
    Washington
    Washington State

    Oklahoma
    Oklahoma State
    Texas
    Texas Tech



    Big "10"

    Illinois
    Indiana
    Ohio State
    Penn State
    Purdue
    Wisconsin
    Iowa
    Michigan
    Michigan State
    Minnesota
    Nebraska
    Northwestern

    Notre Dame
    Pittsburgh
    Syracuse
    Kansas




    $EC

    Alabama
    Arkansas
    Auburn
    LSU
    Mississippi State
    Ole Miss
    Florida
    Georgia
    Kentucky
    South Carolina
    Tennessee
    Vanderbilt

    Florida State
    Virginia Tech
    Missouri
    Texas A&M


    ACC

    Boston College
    Clemson
    Maryland
    North Carolina State
    Wake Forest
    Duke
    Georgia Tech
    Miami (FL)
    North Carolina
    Virginia

    West Virginia
    Louisville
    South Florida
    Connecticut
    Cincinnati
    Rutgers


    The last 3 spots came down to Kansas to the Big 16 and Cincy and Rutgers to the ACC. The Big 16 runs out of natural fits at around 15. Most of the schools that make geographic sense don't make academic sense (even less than UNL made "academic" sense for them... :lol:) or bring nothing to the table athletically. KU fills that spot better than any of the other options, I'm guessing. As for the ACC, I see them getting raided by the $EC before all this locks in, and scrambling to fill up. Cincy, Rutgers and USF might not be the best schools on the list, but unless the ACC wants to come all the way west for schools like TCU, BYU or Boise, or even the decaying carcass of the Big XII (KjSU, ISU, Bailer...) they are probably the best schools available to the ACC when it all shakes out.

    As for the western schools, it sucks to be them. Unfortunately, the UT 4 are the best schools anywhere close to the PAC-12. And once the Pac-12 fills up, none of the other big conferences are going to want anything to do with BYU, TCU or Boise. They're just in the wrong location.

    One possibility that could change a lot of that is if the Big 10 decided on UT instead of KU (which seems more possible when you look at their options for spots 14-16). I can't imagine the Big 10 having any interest in UT's posse, so the Okies and Tech would be cut loose, and the Pac probably wouldn't be interested in Tech under those circumstances.
     
  15. azbuff

    azbuff Club Member Club Member

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    Sad. The service academies deserve to play DI ball. Not only because of the under-appreciated service they offer our country, but because of a very storied college football past. I do not like these sixteen team conferences.
     
  16. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    I could see a pretty decent "#5" conference consisting of the remnants of the Big XII and teams like Boise, TCU, AFA and BYU that would at least keep the Zoomies in a fairly good place, even if it wouldn't be part of the BCS or whatever the 4 megaconferences organize themselves into...

    Army and Navy would probably not be much worse off under this system than they are now. But I agree, I love service academy football and would hate to see them get screwed in whatever realignment ends up happening...
     
  17. OriginalWhiz

    OriginalWhiz Member

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    Cool thread. I look at it this way...there are 12 teams in the Pac, 12 teams in the SEC, 12 teams in the Big Ten, and 12 teams in the ACC. Add Notre Dame (who I think eventually ends up in the Big Ten), and that's 49 teams. All those are safe.
    From the Big 12, Texas, Oklahoma, A&M. From the Big East, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pittsburgh. That takes us to 55. I think all of those teams are locks, so there are really 9 "wild-card" spots left. IMHO, here are the teams on the bubble, in order from most likely to find a home to least:

    THE ALMOST LOCKS

    Oklahoma State - Pac-16 or SEC. Don't bring much to the table, but OU will bring them wherever they go. And make no mistake: OU will find a home somewhere. Verdict: In.

    Missouri - Big Ten or SEC. Not a great football tradition, but they could bring the St. Louis market. Verdict: In, eventually.

    Kansas - Big Ten, SEC, outside chance at the Pac-16. They'll eventually find a home because of the KC market and strong B-ball tradition. (I know that football's driving the bus, but it helps.) Verdict: In.

    UConn - Big Ten, ACC. The Big Ten has been vocal about wanting to expand to the eastern markets. Adding UConn would snag them the Hartford market and stretch the Big Ten to New England. Strong B-ball tradition doesn't hurt either. Verdict: In.

    "WELL, WE NEED ANOTHER TEAM. HOW ABOUT ONE OF THESE GUYS?"

    Texas Tech - Pac-16 or bust. They are going to try to stick to UT like Jeff Van Gundy on Alonzo Mourning's ankle and hope that UT drags them along. Verdict: they don't bring much to the table, but Texas will insist they get a Pac-16 invite.

    Louisville - SEC, ACC, extremely outside chance at Big Ten. Bring the Louisville market, probably more attractive to the ACC than the SEC, who already has Kentucky. Verdict: I think they get in, but it wouldn't surprise me to see another team from this category get in instead.

    Cincinnati - ACC, extremely outside chance at SEC or Big Ten. Would bring the Cincinnati market and decent B-ball, but not much else. Verdict: see above.

    South Florida - ACC or SEC. Maybe more attractive to the SEC to give them a presence in South Florida, but they're probably still a long shot. They're a newcomer to D-1 football as well. Verdict: see above.

    "WE WISH WE COULD HELP YOU, BUT WE LIKE WHO WE HAVE RIGHT NOW"

    TCU - Pac-16, SEC, extremely outside shot at the ACC. Still a newbie to BCS football, but an up-and-coming program. DFW market. Why they get left out in the cold: Pac-16 won't want a religious school. SEC would want a bigger program, and they'll already have a Texas team in A&M.

    West Virginia - ACC, SEC, extremely outside shot at the Big Ten. They've been good as of late, but remember: they're only the kings of the Big Least because Miami and VA Tech left. Why they get left out in the cold: no market to speak of.

    Air Force - Pac-16. They have a great program, especially for a service academy. Why they get left out: Pac-12 already has a team in Colorado, and they don't add any new markets. It will be more important to expand the conference footprint to Texas and Oklahoma.

    UNLV - Pac-16. Personally I would love it if the Pac had a team in Vegas (assuming of course they eventually upgrade their joke of a high school stadium). It would be a great roadtrip, fill out a gap in the conference footprint, and bring the LV market. Why they get left out: their program and academics aren't up to par to Pac-12 standards. It's one thing to bring a BCS buster from a lower conference like Utah in, it's another to bring a team that has struggled in that same lower conference.

    "DON'T CALL US - WE'LL CALL YOU..."

    Boise State - Pac-16. Great BCS buster as of late, but they'll get left out due to horrific academics (by Pac-12 standards) and not being a big enough market to justify taking them over someone who would expand the conference footprint to the east. And who knows if they'd really be competitve without a gimmick field and playing a real schedule.

    Kansas State - Big Ten, extremely outside shot at the Pac-16 or SEC. Much like OK St. or TT, their best hope is to stick to their bigger rival and hope they get taken along for the ride. Don't bring anything to the table that KU doesn't. And...I bet KU would leave them behind. OU and UT are set, and they can afford to make demands. I don't think a bubble team like KU will risk being left behind just so little brother can tag along.

    New Mexico - Pac-16. Horrible football program in a ho-hum market (ABQ). Expands the conference footprint, gives CU fans a nice roadtrip, but not much else. They'll be passed over for former Big 12 teams unless the Pac has no other options.

    BYU - Pac-16. They really deserve to be higher on the list given their football tradition. But they get left out because the Pac has been pretty firm about not accepting religious schools. Plus, they don't expand the conference footprint any and we already have a duplicate market in SLC with Utah.

    "PLEASE TELL ME YOU'RE JOKING"

    San Diego State - Pac-16. San Diego market, yes, but minimal enthusiasm for this school, and don't the LA schools already bring SD? No way would Larry Scott give up a perfectly good spot for yet another California school to saturate the market.

    Hawaii - Pac-16. Honolulu market, although that hasn't exactly done wonders for the WAC. Doesn't add much to the Pac - in fact probably hurts recruiting since the local boys will want to stay home. The Pac is looking east for expansion, not west.

    Colorado State and Fresno State - :lol:
     
    dio likes this.
  18. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Good post, OriginalWhiz. A few minor things:

    Living in ACC country, I think WVU has a better shot at the ACC than Louisville or Cincinnati. No, they aren't strong academically, but neither are Lousiville or Cinci. Their football success/fanbase dwarfs those schools as well. Also important to keep in mind that Morgantown is very close to Pittsburgh - it's actually a safe bet to say the Pittsburgh media market has far more WVU fans than Pitt fans. Already having existing rivalries with Maryland, Virginia Tech and to a lesser extent, Virginia, doesn't hurt their cause either.

    -Syracuse and Rutgers being safe poses some trouble for UConn. The BigTen and ACC are both likely to expand into the Northeast so there are at least two spots, but they're all fighting for that (mythical) NYC market. UConn football has come on strong lately, but they've only been DI for ~10 years, and 'Cuse and Rutgers both have the upper hand on UConn academically, a big point of emphasis for both the B1G and ACC.
     
  19. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    UConn has a bit of the same thing going on as KU. Not great football programs, but great basketball. And when you start getting toward the bottom of the 64, that might be enough, especially if the geography is right. Plus, the ACC has always been more hoops oriented than the other 3 "megaconferences". I could see Duke and UNC championing getting UConn in over some of the other options that would be out there...
     
  20. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Have to somewhat agree with you on WVU, in the final evaluation it is all going to come down to who can and does generate the most money. We can talk all we want about academic level but that doesn't mean Harvard or Yale are getting in. We can talk about tradition and history but Army and Navy are not likely to get in. WVU does not have a great market but they generate a lot of money out of it. The pack their stadium with fans, they travel well, and they get good TV ratings when on.
     
  21. BuffNut99

    BuffNut99 Club Member Club Member

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    Boulder Camera reporting that Notre Dame, BYU, Air Force are atop Big 12's wish list

    http://www.buffzone.com/ci_18696980

    Colorado State had better get its resume updated fast

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2011
  22. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    No way should Boise be in consideration to be one of the have's in college football.
     
  23. OriginalWhiz

    OriginalWhiz Member

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    Agreed on the mythical NYC market. I used to live there, and believe me it was all Yankees and occasional Jets or Giants. I can't remember EVER seeing people rocking Syracuse or Rutgers gear. Still, the Big Ten seems to be convinced they need to expand out there. I would think the ACC would try to nab Syracuse, while the Big Ten would take Rutgers and UConn. That's just a guess, though. But UConn will clearly be behind Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers in the NE pecking order.
     
  24. OriginalWhiz

    OriginalWhiz Member

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    Lol - the Big 12 has no prayer of getting ND. If the Big Ten hasn't been able to, a dying conference certainly won't be able. As I've said before, I doubt even BYU would go. They're independent now, probably the last thing they want to do is join a conference that is crumbling and probably won't exist within 2 or 3 years. Air Force might do it, and is at least a more exciting prospect than Houston or SMU.


     
  25. OriginalWhiz

    OriginalWhiz Member

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    +1. Unfortunately for them (and fortunately for us as Pac-12 fans), the Pac is one of the few conferences that actually cares about academics. And geography dictates that the Pac-12 is their only option. Plus, how good would they have really been if they played more than 1 game a year? Seriously.

     
  26. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I think there's a strong chance the ACC would go after Syracuse, at least based on their past expansion. Syracuse was the ACC's first choice before VT started bitching and moaning and got Gov. Mark Warner to tie UVA's hands behind their back and push for the Hokies. However, this was before Schiano had turned around Rutgers and made them respectable. Rutgers and Maryland could develop a rivalry of sorts
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2011
  27. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    One of the major reasons beewhyyou went indy was for the outreach of the faith. They can, and are starting to, schedule games all around the country. Add that nation-wide exposure to the school's existing network (reportedly 60M people) and you have an institution that absolutely doesn't need a conference. Beewhyyou isn't joining a conference for football any time soon. Prolly not until the mythical 16-team super-conferences are born.
     
  28. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Plus, the MWC media payout was under $3 million a year. The economic risk of going independent wasn't significant for a business unit of the LDS church. For a program like Texas, we're talking about a conference media deal that pays over $20 million. Much harder to go solo and make that kind of cheddar up. But would BYU now choose to join a conference? Maybe, considering those economics, the greater exposure of Big 12 games, and the fact that it would assuage their bruised egos from the Utes going BCS and them not being invited to that party.
     
  29. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

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    I read on ramnation that the Big East wanted Hawaii but Hawaii chose the MWC instead. No joke
     
  30. rodrigo

    rodrigo Well-Known Member

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    Just my two cents but having lived in NYC for the past 18 years the market is not necessarily mythical, it's just not tied to any one team and definitely not to geographically proximate schools (ie Syracuse or Rutgers). There are buttloads of college football fans but they're mainly alums of schools from across the country: Michigan, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Notre Dame, etc. Plenty of bars have specific school-related watch parties. Run through Central Park on a Saturday and you'll see quite a bit of Penn State, VT, WVA and even TTech gear. I'm always seeing folks in the BnG, on the subways, streets, in restaurants and stores.

    Point being, if one of the super 16 conferences got the right grouping of schools they'd pull a decent NYC-based group of fans, probably comparable to and certainly more dedicated than from, say, some combo of Ft. Fun, Wacko, Lawrence and the other Manhattan.
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2011

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