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This Week In BasketBuffs - 1/30/12

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Goose, Jan 30, 2012.

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Can the Oregons Win At Altitude?

  1. No

    3 vote(s)
    9.7%
  2. Hell No

    14 vote(s)
    45.2%
  3. We're Kidnapping Oregon's Cheerleaders

    14 vote(s)
    45.2%
  1. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    LAST WEEK

    Men

    Women

    THIS WEEK
    [​IMG][​IMG]Men:
    Thursday, February 2nd
    7:00 PM
    No TV
    Coors Event Center
    Boulder, CO
    Women:
    Thursday, February 2nd
    8:00 PM
    No TV
    Gill Coliseum
    Corvallis, OR
    Colorado
    Offense
    Colorado
    Defense
    Oregon St.
    Offense
    Oregon St.
    Defense
    D1
    Average
    eFG%50.7%46.8%53.8%51.0%48.9%
    Turnover %20.7%18.0%19.6%24.5%20.7%
    Off. Reb %32.3%28.8%33.7%33.6%32.4%
    FTA/FGA45.631.745.737.136.5

    [​IMG][​IMG]Men:
    Saturday, February 4th
    7:00 PM
    ROOT Rocky Mountain
    Coors Event Center
    Boulder, CO
    Women:
    Saturday, February 4th
    3:00 PM

    No TV
    Matthew Knight Arena
    Eugene, OR
    Colorado
    Offense
    Colorado
    Defense
    Oregon
    Offense
    Oregon
    Defense
    D1
    Average
    eFG%50.7%46.8%50.9%47.9%48.9%
    Turnover %20.7%18.0%21.0%19.1%20.7%
    Off. Reb %32.3%28.8%31.9%32.0%32.4%
    FTA/FGA45.631.743.429.136.5

    Despite the split results for the men's team last week, we actually saw both the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers improve last week. As disappointing as the second half of the UCLA game was, I have to consider the week a success because of that. I think most of us are playing with house money at this point in the season, so every win is a bonus, but the team could still make a nice little run. I think our NCAA Tourney hopes are officially dashed now (provided we don't run the table in the PAC-12 tourney), but 20 wins and a solid NIT run is still VERY reasonable. We're at 14-7, so if we protect home court over the last four games (the Oregons and the Bay Area - which KenPom projects us going 3-1) and win the Utah and Arizona St games on the road, we'll have the 20 wins before the PAC-12 tourney.

    But let's not get ahead of ourselves -- first we have to protect home court. This week we get the Oregons with the "better" of the two teams coming to the Keg on Thursday. Oregon has been getting a lot of hype lately for being the potential dark horse who could sneak into the big dance, but that came crashing apart a little yesterday when Oregon State went into the Matthew Knight Center and stole a win from the Ducks. However, that was the first win on the road in conference for the Beavers who had previously lost on the road to the Washington & Arizona schools. They're not a good team away from home, so the Buffs have to take advantage. Oregon State is a phenomenal offensive team (26th in the nation in offensive efficiency) who can play solid defense. Stopping Jared Cunningham will be key. If the Buffs can slow him down (he's averaging 18.2 ppg) and keep him off of the line (20th in the nation in FTRate), the victory should be ours. But there's a reason that Cunningham was on a lot of people's pre-season All-PAC-12 teams.

    Oregon has had more success on the road than the Beavers, beating both Arizona schools and Washington State while losing to Washington in PAC-12 play. The key to beating the Ducks will be free throws. Oregon is very similar to the Buffs in the regard that they get to the line a lot and keep their opponents from doing the same. CU is 18th in FTA/FGA while Oregon is 39th. On defense, Oregon has the advantage as they're 33rd in the nation whereas CU is 72nd. This game could come down to who gets the whistles, and with the game being at the Keg, we hypothetically should have the advantage there.

    There is no excuse for the women's team losing to UCLA, but at leas they got the win over USC. That's a huge win RPI wise as the Buffs went from 107th to 78th in just one week thanks to that. The UCLA loss stings, but it isn't considered a "bad" loss according to the computers. Still, 16-3 (5-3) would look a LOT better than their current 15-4 (4-4) record. RealTimeRPI.com has Oregon at 70th in the RPI ratings and Oregon State at 133rd. Apparently they don't like our performance on the road though as they currently project the women's team to go 0-2. Time to prove them wrong.

    Finally, we have to give a shoutout to TZISKIN for his "You Can't Win At Altitude" chant idea. It appears that it might be catching on already as the men's team's twitter feed has already started the #YouCantWinAtAltitude tag.
    Offensive
    Efficiency
    Defensive
    Efficiency
    Pace
    Colorado104.895.666.7
    D1 Average100.3100.366.8
    RPISOS
    Men7169
    Women78177
     
  2. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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  3. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Need to win both of these this week. Two mediocre opponents at home, and a chance to put ourselves back in 1st.

    Oregon State likes to put up some points. It should be an entertaining game
     
  4. pachoops

    pachoops PacHoops Blogger

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    I really liked Rumblin' Buffaloes' comparison of the UCLA and Stanford games and here's my takeaway. UCLA cannot sustainably shoot 60%. An outlier like that I think is more indicative of a hot night for the Bruins rather than an indictment of the CU defense. If we're looking for the silver lining, the Buffs have a favorable close to their season, hosting the Bay schools (#YouCantWinAtAltitude), no trip to Washington, and four of nine games with an opponent named Beaver, Sun Devil, or Ute.
     
  5. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

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    I'm worried about stanford and the oregon schools at home and the utes on the road.
     
  6. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Two mediocre opponents at home that are very similar to CU in a lot of ways. These teams cannot be overlooked and thought of as sure fire wins. Oregon St. has has some terrible losses (ASU and WSU) but they did just win at Oregon and beat UCLA and CAL at home. Oregon has won a tougher road game at Arizona and beat Stanford at home.

    Basically what I am trying to say are these teams aren't WSU, Utah, and ASU. At this point in the season teams are getting used to conf road trips and aren't going to roll over like our previous home conf games (I would be elated if they did, but I just don't see it happening).
     
  7. Buffs@5345'

    Buffs@5345' Club Member Club Member

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    But are they used to ALTITUDE?

    I agree these could be opportunities for the Buffs to get caught napping. Loud, involved crowds should help to keep that from happening.
     
  8. buffgal

    buffgal Club Member Club Member

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    On the women's side, I realize it's hard to predict based on what opponents have done against teams we are playing, but we trounced DU and DU trounced Oregon in Denver. That said, I have no idea how this team will do. Right now, they seem to do better on the road than at home, which speaks poorly about my decision to buy a plane ticket and be in Boulder when the Lady Buffs play Utah.
     
  9. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    This has to be a big week for the women or we're talking NIT.
     
  10. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yup, they really needed the sweep at home over the LA schools and obviously didn't get it. Any NCAA tournament talk has to start with a sweep this week in Oregon. Both those teams are in the bottom half of the conference standings.
     
  11. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Anybody worried about the weather tomorrow night effecting attendance?
     
  12. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    This guy
     
  13. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    What time is the snow supposed to start?
     
  14. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    might effect my attendance.
     
  15. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    For all you whining about the snow...

    SnowDumbassBook[1].gif
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2012
  16. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I may not be going to work tomorrow because of the snow, but my ass will be at the game tonight.
     
  17. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    That's the spirit.

    Hope it holds off for you guys. This is exactly the type of game in which a lethargic CU performance due to no crowd could come back and bite us in the ass.
     
  18. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Women were horrendous tonight. Shot 29% and committed 22 turnovers. That's with 37.5% from 3 (6/16). 9/36 (25%) from 2pt range is inexcusable.

    Defense wasn't much better than the offense, allowing 45% shooting.

    45-65 final.

    Must win at Oregon this weekend.
     
  19. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Ouch. Wonder if they weren't able to fully put that UCLA loss behind them. The Buffs have really been struggling these last couple weeks -- it was looking like they had a great shot at the Big Dance, and now those hopes are hanging by a tiny little thread. A loss at Oregon officially ends those hopes, imo. The overall record is still respectable, 15-6, but we've now slipped to 4-6 in the Pac. Considering we still have to visit the Bay Area, that's not a good sign. Oregon is a very winnable game - let's get the W in Eugene and build momentum for this upcoming 3 game homestand. Hopefully this is just a mini-slump similiar to what we saw from the men during this exact same time frame last season. The men snapped out of it and came on strong to end the season last year, and I know the women can do the same this year.
     
  20. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm not sure it has been mentioned, but the men's team reached a milestone with last night's win. 39 wins over 2 seasons is the most ever for CU Men's Basketball.
     
  21. Ruckus

    Ruckus Peep my words. Club Member

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    Consecutive seasons? That is awesome. Let's get some more!
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Yeah, consecutive.
     
  23. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    It's gonna be really kewl when the Buffs reach 20 wins in consecutive season.
     
  24. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    #RollTad
     
  25. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Tad owns your mom... at altitude.
     
  26. CanadianDuck

    CanadianDuck Well-Known Member

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    Ducks may not be able to fly out until Saturday.
     
  27. buffgal

    buffgal Club Member Club Member

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    I had to stop listening. It was too painful.
     
  28. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Women lost yet AGAIN, 67-62 at Oregon. Buffs were up 34-21, and then allowed the Ducks to go on an 18-0 run. Now 15-7 (4-7), and have lost 5/7, including 3 in a row. They return to Boulder for a 3 game home stand. Utah and Arizona are the bottom two teams in the Pac, but Arizona State is pretty solid (tied for 3rd and completely wrecked us in Tempe).

    For the Buffs to get back to having any shot at the NCAA Tournament, they need to win these next 3 games, which would bring them to 18-7 (7-7). They then have to visit the Bay Area, which is a virtually guaranteed two losses, so that would drop them to 18-9 (7-9). They then finish up with the Oregon schools at home, both of whom are mediocre at best (despite what happened this weekend). It's possible to win both of those, and if the Buffs were to do that and finish 21-9 (9-9), then perhaps they'd likely have a shot to Dance. Unfortunately it's tough to see CU winning all 5 of their remaining home games and WNIT seems the likely destination at this point.

    First things first though. Get a win over Arizona on Thursday.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2012

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