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UCLA Game Week -- Official Thread (8:30 on ESPN2)

J.R. Ewing said:
There is some good stuff on UCLA there. https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-ucla-advanced-statistical-profile

They're 125 in rushing big play prevention.
They're 101th in passing efficiency prevention.
They're 101st in passing down sack rate.
They're 117th in passing down passing big play prevention.
Their DL is decent (8th in havoc), but their LBs are non-existent (126th in havoc). Havoc is plays that end in TFL, sack, defended pass, INT, or forced fumble.

We NEED to go longs on these guys. If Lindgren tries to dink and dunk our way down the field on these guys, I'm going to lose it.
Click to expand...
based on what I'm seeing, we should be able to do whatever the **** we want against UCLA on offense. If we can't run the ball or move the ball down the field with extreme regularity, this offense is officially terrible.
 
CategoryBuffaloesBruins
Sagarin Strength of Opponent (higher is better)CSU, TX ST, N Colo, UW (62.88)aTm, HA, MEM, Stanford (67.68)
Offense – PPG26.245.0
Offense – 1st Downs90112
Offense – Total413.8 yards/game
5.6 yards/play		571.8 yards/game
7.5 yards/play
Offense – Rushing141.5 yards/game
3.5/attempt		120 yards/game
4.8/attempt
Offense – Passing272.2 yards/game
8.0 yards/attempt		451.1 yards/game
8.9 yards/attempt
Kick Returns5 – 111
22.2/return		23 – 444
19.3/return
Punt Returns8 – 121
15.1/return		4 – 9
2.2/return
Interception Returns5 - 414 - 113
Fumbles Recovered8 (Opponents 5)8 (Opponents 4)
Field Goals/PATs7 of 8 / 12 of 124 of 5 / 24 of 24
Red Zone Scorers (TDs)11-13 (7-13)18-20 (15-20)
Defense – PPG16.043.2
Defense – 1st Downs7397
Defense – Total Yards341.8/game524.8/game
Defense – Rushing142.2/game
3.8/attempt		307.5/game
6.6/attempt
Defense – Passing199.5/game
6.5/attempt		217.2/game
6.6/attempt
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
What does all of this tell us? Unfortunately, not much we didn't already know. Their offense is way better than ours, and our defense is better.

We are going to have to be able to run the ball - that is clearly their weakness on defense. Somewhat interesting our ST's return game has been quite a bit better so far this year. Somehow I missed capturing Net Punting average. Next time. (Edit - gross punting is virtually the same - within a yard of each other)
 
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Formula seems simple to me. Pound the ball with read option and play action, shorten the game, maintain ball control and limit their opportunities on offense so the defense stays fresh. You do not want to give UCLA the opportunity to get into a shootout.

If Colorado can execute this type of game plan (and I don't see why we can't), then we have a good shot.
 
buffedup said:
Formula seems simple to me. Pound the ball with read option and play action, shorten the game, maintain ball control and limit their opportunities on offense so the defense stays fresh. You do not want to give UCLA the opportunity to get into a shootout.

If Colorado can execute this type of game plan (and I don't see why we can't), then we have a good shot.
Click to expand...
Agree with the bolded. This may be a game where they shouldn't try to go with a tempo, no-huddle offense. I'm not saying they should huddle, but there shouldn't be a rush to give the ball back to UCLA's offense. Shortening the game and taking away a couple UCLA possessions, by running clock, would be advised, IMO.
 
buffedup said:
Formula seems simple to me. Pound the ball with read option and play action, shorten the game, maintain ball control and limit their opportunities on offense so the defense stays fresh. You do not want to give UCLA the opportunity to get into a shootout.

If Colorado can execute this type of game plan (and I don't see why we can't), then we have a good shot.
Click to expand...

And win in special teams. This is actually the blueprint for a lot of games going forward.

Thinking of the Wazzu, ASU, and USC games in particular.
 
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buffedup said:
Formula seems simple to me. Pound the ball with read option and play action, shorten the game, maintain ball control and limit their opportunities on offense so the defense stays fresh. You do not want to give UCLA the opportunity to get into a shootout.

If Colorado can execute this type of game plan we (and I don't see why we can't), then we have a good shot.
Click to expand...

I don't mean to be an asshole, but we haven't really been able to put up long scoring (even FG) drives. Turnovers, OL penalties, and a QB who slides the one time he shouldn't have all been drive killers for us. Let's hope this changes.
 
BuffsNYC said:
I don't mean to be an asshole, but we haven't really been able to put up long scoring (even FG) drives. Turnovers, OL penalties, and a QB who slides the one time he shouldn't have all been drive killers for us. Let's hope this changes.
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upload_2017-9-25_15-32-28.png

upload_2017-9-25_15-33-26.png

Both of those are over 4 minutes and 50 yards. What's "long" from your perspective?
 
J.R. Ewing said:
There is some good stuff on UCLA there. https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-ucla-advanced-statistical-profile

They're 125 in rushing big play prevention.
They're 101th in passing efficiency prevention.
They're 101st in passing down sack rate.
They're 117th in passing down passing big play prevention.
Their DL is decent (8th in havoc), but their LBs are non-existent (126th in havoc). Havoc is plays that end in TFL, sack, defended pass, INT, or forced fumble.

We NEED to go longs on these guys. If Lindgren tries to dink and dunk our way down the field on these guys, I'm going to lose it.
Click to expand...
Be prepared to lose it - he doesn't do anything else
 
BuffsNYC said:
I don't mean to be an asshole, but we haven't really been able to put up long scoring (even FG) drives. Turnovers, OL penalties, and a QB who slides the one time he shouldn't have all been drive killers for us. Let's hope this changes.
Click to expand...
The premise of my argument is UCLA’s defense. They are very bad, especially against the run. We have a veteran running back and athletic QB. Buffs should be able to pick up chunks on the ground.
 
Buffsrock85 said:
They've scored 24 touchdowns?!? Wow. Averaging 6 a game, that's a hell of an offense.
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That's what concerns me. Yes, their defense is awful but CU 's offense hasn't shown me they can keep up. They can't go 3 to 5 drives without scoring. The defense will be gassed
 
we don't want a track meet game with these guys. what we need to do is very physically shut their offense down, early and often. hit them and make them quit, like my old coaches used to say. our offense can be good enough IF we can get them out of their game. trading big offensive plays will not likely end well for us.
 
Liver said:
we don't want a track meet game with these guys. what we need to do is very physically shut their offense down, early and often. hit them and make them quit, like my old coaches used to say. our offense can be good enough IF we can get them out of their game. trading big offensive plays will not likely end well for us.
Click to expand...


You are right but, our front 7 unlike last year, doesn't seem to have that capability, at least not for 2 halves.
 
Duff Man said:
And win in special teams. This is actually the blueprint for a lot of games going forward.

Thinking of the Wazzu, ASU, and USC games in particular.
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I think I'd add pressure Rosen. He gets time, he'll pick CU apart.
 
Sykobuff said:
That's what concerns me. Yes, their defense is awful but CU 's offense hasn't shown me they can keep up. They can't go 3 to 5 drives without scoring. The defense will be gassed
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UCLA had a two game stretch where Rosen led TDs on 12 consecutive drives. That's explosive.
 
To echo an earlier sentiment: Regardless of how bad UCLA's defense may be, our offense hasn't shown me what I need to see to have confidence that we get out of our own way to win a high scoring game.
 
FBS Defense Stack Rankings - Yds/Game and Pts/Game
  • Texas A&M 93rd and 96th
  • Hawaii 95th and 106th
  • Memphis 117th and 108th
  • Stanford 109th and 70th
  • Colorado 40th and 20th

UCLA is going to score, but we should be able to slow them down a bit - we are easily the best defense they will have seen so far this season.
 
Highlander said:
FBS Defense Stack Rankings - Yds/Game and Pts/Game
  • Texas A&M 93rd and 96th
  • Hawaii 95th and 106th
  • Memphis 117th and 108th
  • Stanford 109th and 70th
  • Colorado 40th and 20th

UCLA is going to score, but we should be able to slow them down a bit - we are easily the best defense they will have seen so far this season.
Click to expand...
The first four teams on that list have one thing in common which may skew your analysis.
 
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