Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by CitizenKane, Feb 16, 2016.
@Goose, explain yourself.
It'd be nice to get our first win a Pauley.
No valid reason for it, but I'm with CK on this. UCLA will be tough, but when Scott comes off his injury in a big way CU can win it.
We are all undervaluing this USC based on well their recent history of sucking miserably. this is a much better squad than we have ever seen. I don't give us much chance of winning either game.
kenpom number cruncher?
RPI Forecast gives us a 27% chance @USC, and 38% chance at @UCLA.
If ever there was a chance to beat UCLA on the road, its now. Not expecting a win, but never know.
Yup. KenPom's probabilities are 22% and 31%. Multiply those and you get 6.8% or about a one in fifteen chance. So, yes I'm telling you there is a chance .
Edit; I like Scotch's rpiforecast numbers better. Make it 9:1. Getting closer.
I don't know what to expect from the team.
I know that when they hit on all cylinders, they are very good on both ends. But when it's a turnover-fest and/or when guys disappear, they struggle and can lose to anyone on the road. So I'm predicting two wins leggo.
Disclaimer: I don't have a sub to Kenpom, but if I did I probably would have used that.
Explaining myself...wait do you mean eating lamb chops in Fort Collins or that I think CU has a nice chance to take both games?
What the hell, I'll do both:
I think CU could beat USC because BB (Bennie Boatright) has such an impact on the success USC has and I think Gordon can cover him and limit his points. If Gordon does that the guard play isn't as lopsided towards USC as it has been with many other teams and the wings and center play favor CU.
As for UCLA, I wouldn't usually like our odds there and I can't quite figure out why UCLA has done as poorly in the PAC as they have. They certainly don't lack talent. But if there was ever a year any team could go there and win, its this year. They are vulnerable and I think the Buffs squad knows how much the game is needed.
Eating lamb chops....my brother in law works for CSU and was silly enough to make a bet this year about the game. He FINALLY paid up. Lamb never tasted so good.
I don't think USC is the worst match up on earth for us, but it won't be easy to go beat an NCAA Tournament side in their gym. There's a reason sides like Arizona have fallen there this season.
UCLA is at the point where there's little to no wiggle room left. They seemed to play like they finally grasped that this past week in the desert. Whether they'll fall back on their inconsistent ways, who knows, but if we encounter a focused UCLA side we will have our hands full.
That said, it would be ****ing huge to return to Boulder with 20 wins and a 9-6 Pac mark (I'll start calling for road sweeps after we demonstrate a little more consistency winning 1).
Absolutely capable of winning both.
Likely to lose both.
What is the latest on Josh's ankle and return?
Hopefully the Buff faithful in LA show up to the games in full force and negate some of the home court advantage.
I think our boys are due for a good road game. My prediction is that we'll beat USC and lose to UCLA. I know USC is better than UCLA, but I think it'll be one of those games where our Buffs finally rise up to the occasion. USC will give us open 3's and I like that a lot.
My formula for the Buffs the rest of the way is:
Beat either USC or UCLA
Beat either Arizona or Utah
Won't be easy, but that should get us in the top 4.
Seems to me, with my very fuzzy recollection, that Scott hasn't been great in games where he's returning from being out. But maybe, with his back, he was never right.
fine. Between you and and the stats, my optimism is completely blown. I'm prepared for two massive losses coming up.
Get Alford to struggle shooting and UCLA is beatable. USC has been terrible so hard to think of them as a tough test yet but we will likely lose that one.
USC will be a major test. Haven't lost a home game yet this season. CU has to shoot reasonably well to have a chance. The 3-point shooting has gone way downhill the past several games. Let's hope that is due to Scott being out and not drawing extra attention down low, and that he plays tomorrow night. Under 30% (21/71) combined the last 4 games.
UCLA is definitely beatable. CU has to take care of the ball, limit UCLA's transition opportunities and rebound against a team with a ton of size and athleticism. Can be done, but won't be easy.
A split will be huge, a sweep virtually impossible but a few stranger things have happened.
We stand little chance against USC, and we struggle mightily against UCLA at their place historically, I don't see us winning either game and turnovers will probably be 20+/game. We would be lucky to get a win. I would be so happy to be proven wrong, but every time I watch our Buffs play on the road, they seem like a completely different team.
Too bad we already know what your prediction is.
Well I've been pretty close on some games but I also thought we would win two games that we lost. About time we won one I thought we would lose, isn't it?
Ok, I'm calling my shot. CU is going to buck the odds and finally beat UCLA in Pauley. Against my better judgment, I've talked myself into a CU conference rad win against a decent opponent.
The bad news: Kenpom has UCLA favored by five with a 31% chance of a CU victory.
More bad news: Kenpom does not factor "true" home court advantage or injuries into his prediction. As we all know CU's homecourt advantage and therefore it's road disadvantage is more pronounced than an average team. Kenpom assigns roughly four points to the home team. CU's true HCA is actually more like 7. Factoring this into the spread, CU should be more like an eight point dog with about a 22% chance of winning the game. This, before even considering Josh's status. I'm going to assume (hope) Josh is close to 90% by Sauturday.
So, why will they win?
1) Turnovers (yes turnovers) - Our Buffs commit them at a pretty ugly rate. 19.5% of Buff's possessions end up in a turnover (255th in D-1). Going into hostile territory with turnover issues is not a recipe for success, as those issues are usually magnified on the road. Fortunately for the Buffs, UCLA plays a pretty passive (kind word) defense. Only 16.1% of UCLA's opponents possessions end up in a turnover (323rd in D-1). If CU can limit their self-inflicted TO's they should get at least a couple extra possessions.
On the other hand, UCLA takes pretty good care of the ball, with a 17.4% TO rate. On the other hand, CU is 45th in defensive efficiency, but they do not rely on turnovers (15.4% TOR, 323rd in D-1) to stop their opponents. CU will likely lose the turnover battle on the scoresheet, but will lose it by 4-5 fewer than is built into UCLA's advantage. I'm going to knock 3 points off the 8. UCLA is now favored by 5.
2) Offensive rebounding - the other factor that UCLA is very good at offensively is rebounding, getting 34.2% of offensive rebound opportunities (53rd in D-1). Unfortunately for the Bruins, CU is 25th in D-1 in allowing offensive rebounds (25.5%), so the advantage they enjoy against most teams is negated by the Buffs. On the other end, the Buffs are just as good, grabbing 35.6% of their own offensive rebound opps (29th in D-1) while the Bruins are pretty bad (30.3%, 198th). Three more points for our Buffs to get the spread down to two.
3) Fouls - CU is very good at avoiding fouls and putting their opponent at the line (33% FT rate, 86th in D-1), but UCLA does not get to the line much (34.3%, 234th and only 19.3% of their points at the line - also 234th), so no real advantage for the Buffs there. On the other end, however, Colorado is 45th in D-1 getting to the line 42.7% FT/FGA, while UCLA is decent at avoiding fouls (33.6%, 102nd). Here's the problem for UCLA: Parker and Welsh commit 5.0 and 4.3 fouls per 40 minutes, respectively while Gordon and Scott commit 3.2 and 2.2. I see early foul trouble for one or both of the UCLA bigs, meaning that we'll see more of Bolden and Olesinski than UCLA would like. Advantage Buffs. Two more points, Buffs are now even.
4) Rest/depth - The Buffs get two days rest, the Bruins one. Why this is significant is that UCLA's guards/wings all play 32+ minutes per game (Alford plays 90% of the available minutes, Hamilton 85.6%, and Holiday 79.2%). They will be coming off a tough Thursday game against the Utes, probably all having logged 34 minutes or more. There is little depth in the Bruins backcourt after these three. Ali is all they have. Two points Buffs.
Buffs win 74-72.
Everybody should like the **** out of this post. Awesome work.
Well ****. Now I want to take my like back cause **** you
Given the recent homestand, maybe that's not a bad thing.
Thanks. Just happy that negrep is no longer available in the incredibly unlikely event that the Buffs lay an egg on the road and lose by 20 .
Unfortunately after that lackluster homestand....very easily see the Buffs finishing 1-4.
Hope I am wrong
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