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Was our Pac-12 schedule front-loaded?

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Jan 17, 2013.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    @ Arizona
    @ Arizona State
    USC
    UCLA
    @ Washington

    Other than USC (2-2 in Pac-12 play), those other teams are a combined 14-2 in conference games. 3/5 have been away.

    1-4 is definitely horrible. But do the next 13 games set up well for the Buffs to make a big run at this thing?

    @ Washington State (1-3)
    Stanford (1-3)
    Cal (2-2)
    @ Utah (0-5)
    @ Oregon (3-0)
    @ Oregon State (0-3)
    Arizona (3-1)
    Arizona State (3-1)
    Utah (0-5)
    @ Stanford (1-3)
    @ Cal (2-2)
    Oregon (3-0)
    Oregon State (0-3)

    7 Home / 6 Away

    Conference record of these opponents: 19-31

    I see no reason that a 10-3 mark over these games shouldn't happen, which would put the Buffs at 11-7 in conference play (about what most people expected).

    It absolutely must start against Washington State. That's pretty much a must-win game if we want to get this turned around.
     
  2. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Oregon road trip looms pretty big. We also need to get the Stanford monkey off our backs
     
  3. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Probably front-loaded but right now I don't see a guaranteed road-win on the schedule. You could argue Utah, but they played UCLA really tough at home. We haven't seen any fight in close games at home let along on the road. I see what you are saying Nik and I hope it falls that way, I am just not so convinced right now.
     
  4. jwhite17

    jwhite17 Member

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    Good stuff buffnik. I could make a counter argument: Washington started with three games on the road right away, and it didn't seem to bother them.

    I don't think you can project that far in advance. Our team confidence is in the gutter.

    Right now, I'm not sure we can even win one road against anyone including the bottom teams. We are that bad on the road (minus the Zona game). We can't pass, shoot, or rebound on the road. The perfect recipe for failure on the road.

    I think our offense needs to change for us to succeed on the road. We can't score 55 points/game and expect to win with defense unless the other team is like Fresno, who is TERRIBLE at offense. No one in the Pac 12 is that bad on offense.

    Utah has the 7'2 guy which will give us problems down low cause we are pillow soft on the road.

    Oregon State's conference record is deceiving. They are not as bad as they seem. They are missing Eric Moreland in the last two games, and he is a difference maker on the glass and defensively for them. I think he will be back when we play at their house.

    Stanford owned us last year, but they lost their best player (Owens) and bearded man, so I think we can compete with them home and away.

    Actually, I like our chances at Cal more than Oregon State because they are just as soft as us and have zero depth.

    I would be happy with 2 road wins with this team and nothing more. We are still one of the worst road BCS teams in the country, and that won't change overnight.

    I think we take games at Utah and at Cal.

    At home, we will probably lose to Zona and should beat everyone else.

    Best case is a .500 in conference record for this team. I want to project higher than that, but until we show something different on the road, I can't even be optimistic against the bottom teams.

    I hope I am wrong and the Buffs win the next 3 games in a row to get back to .500 in conference, but realistically, this team might have peaked in November.

    Those redshirts of Gordon and Jenkins are absolutely killer for this young team.
     
  5. duaneallman8

    duaneallman8 Member

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    I see no worse than 8-5 when I look at that remaining schedule
     
  6. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    KenPom has us projected to to 7-6.
     
  7. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    based on how we look so far:

    @ Washington State (1-3) - Loss
    Stanford (1-3) - Win
    Cal (2-2) - Win
    @ Utah (0-5) - Win
    @ Oregon (3-0) - Loss
    @ Oregon State (0-3) - Win
    Arizona (3-1) - Loss
    Arizona State (3-1) - Win
    Utah (0-5) - Win
    @ Stanford (1-3) - Loss
    @ Cal (2-2) - Loss
    Oregon (3-0) - Loss
    Oregon State (0-3) - Win

    7-6 finish
     
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    jwhite,

    One thing to keep in mind with our road struggles and our difficulty with valuing every possession and our difficulty handling pressure... we are starting 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores with 1 junior. It's not like we're getting 1-and-done type freshmen, either. A team like Washington starts 3 seniors and a junior. UCLA, who does have blue chip freshmen, also has a senior PG (Drew) along with junior "point forwards" with the Wear brothers both getting 20+ minutes a game and Travis starting. Arizona has seniors Lyons & Hill to go along with their young blue chippers.

    This season is an exercise in growing up. And I remain confident that a team coached by Tad Boyle will improve as the season goes along and peak at the right time. He has a track record of making that happen.
     
  9. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    we are basically right on track - we just got our wins earlier than we thought. And I don't think losing the AZ game how we did can be overstated. This team is still recovering from that loss. I think I saw signs of life last night, but we still can't shoot for ****. The team needs to come alive soon though, as the sensation of spiraling out of control and downward is growing...
     
  10. Buffalo Brad

    Buffalo Brad Club Member Club Member

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    Agree and it would be nice to see it happen on Sat. Beat Wazzu on the road and things will start to swing back to momentum. It is a shame that the growing has been so painful over the last 5 to 6 games. UW and ASU were teams that CU has the talent, to beat. Would have been nice to stop the funk there but I still see us with 10-11 wins if we win Sat. Lose and we may not see 9
     
  11. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yes, it's absolutely front-loaded. That's not even a matter of debate, IMO. The question is, does the subsequent 1-4 (and how it went down at Arizona) destroy the confidence of a young, leaderless team so that a big run to the finish line no longer happens? If I'm Tad and the staff, I take the "new season" approach...either Saturday, or next week for the home games.
     
  12. rolandftw

    rolandftw Club Member Club Member

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    At this point, it's definitely front-loaded. That argument can't really be used if we lose to Utah, WSU or OSU in the stretch coming up.
     
  13. Gold

    Gold Well-Known Member

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    We've been right there with every team we've played in conference, so agree that we can do at a minimum 7-6 if not better.

    Starting the season at UA was the biggest test any team could get for an opener. But we are the reigning tourney champs, and have to rise to those new challenges. To this point, it's the defining game of the season.
     
  14. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    Can't the same be said about Utah?
     
  15. NYbuffDIEHARD

    NYbuffDIEHARD Active Member

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    I think we will beat Wazzu tomorrow in Pullman, and getting over the hump on the road will go along way towards getting this teams confidence where it needs to be. I hope the crowds at the CEC keep that place rocking while we are down a bit and we can squeak out the home wins we need to keep pace too. All is not lost, slow start but time to recover.
     
  16. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    Front loaded, but I really think the game taken away from CU by the refs in Arizona has had an effect on this team...it is almost like they are waiting for bad things to happen rather than making good things happen
     
  17. Gold

    Gold Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, haven't seen a Utah game this year, but from the boxscores it does seem they've improved this year.
     
  18. Buffenuf

    Buffenuf massive tool

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    NEVER underestimate the support of a drunken CU student body in CEC!

    One terrific thing Bohn has done is work with the C-Unit, to create a great home atmosphere---even rialto-tard would concede that!
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2013

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