"Way Too Early Top 25 Projections" From Dan Hanner

[jgisland]

According to KenPom's "# of Possessions" in the game numbers, it breaks down as:

With Spencer: 69.25 possessions
UDub Game (I didn't count in either group): 66 possessions
Without Spencer: 66.4 possessions

Some of that you could say comes down to "crunch time" as play does tend to slow in conference and in tourneys (we averaged a glacial 59 possessions in our three tourney games), but it's safe to say your eyes aren't lying.

This is normal though - possessions go down in conf play. Overall this year in the NCAA average possessions were 69.4 out of conference and 66.5 in conference. And conference tournament games were even slower at 65.1. So I do agree that Spencer had some affect on this, it's normal to see this reduction in possessions as the season goes on.

 

[Nor Cal Buff]

Buffnik,

No doubt our offense suffered a big setback without him. But you still have to adjust for opponent when considering the scoring production. Even though we played a very tough OOC schedule, I'd have to think the conference schedule without Dinwiddie was substantially tougher than the schedule we played with him. Someone with more interest in it than me could probably average the Opp AdjDs with and without him.

 

[Nor Cal Buff]

This is normal though - possessions go down in conf play. Overall this year in the NCAA average possessions were 69.4 out of conference and 66.5 in conference. And conference tournament games were even slower at 65.1. So I do agree that Spencer had some affect on this, it's normal to see this reduction in possessions as the season goes on.

I'd venture that pace slows down as teams are more evenly matched, hence the slow down during conference play.

 

[BIGEZ321]

Buffnik,

No doubt our offense suffered a big setback without him. But you still have to adjust for opponent when considering the scoring production. Even though we played a very tough OOC schedule, I'd have to think the conference schedule without Dinwiddie was substantially tougher than the schedule we played with him. Someone with more interest in it than me could probably average the Opp AdjDs with and without him.

Collier is the real deal. He's College ready now. If Mayor leaves, there won't be as big of a gap as people are thinking.

 

[sackman]

Collier is the real deal. He's College ready now. If Mayor leaves, there won't be as big of a gap as people are thinking.

I believe that Collier is the real deal, but you don't simply replace an all Pac-12 player and NBA first round guy with a Freshman and call it good. There will need to be significant contributions from some other players to make up the difference.

 

[Quattro]

We went 10-8 in conference this year. How exactly do you form the opinion that we can go from one game over .500 this year to .500 not being a possibility for next year?

1. Experience
-Last season, we were 343rd in D1 in experience at 0.9 years, there are 351 teams in D1 and the next team from the Pac 12 is at #327 and that's Arizona who is immensely talented. We return everyone but Spencer so far. Ski is a senior and I expect him to continue to get better given his work ethic and how Tad has developed players during his time here. Josh and XJ are upper classmen, same with Talton and I expect them to take another step forward. With experience comes time in the weight room and the freshman and really the rest of the team need to get in the weight room. Scott, Gordon, and Dustin all plan on staying in Boulder during the summer and I am going to go out on a limb and say they are all planning on working out/practicing this summer with each other. Scott put on significant weight last offseason and said he plans on gaining more, I expect Dustin will follow this model. We saw how key experience is during the tournament, with the exception of Kentucky and this will be the first time we will have a experienced roster since Tad's first season.

1 - Talton, Jr./Collier, Fr.
2 - Booker, Sr.
3 - Johnson, Jr.
4 - Gordon, So. (3rd year on campus)
5 - Scott, Jr.

Bench:
-Hopkins, So. (good amount of starting experience)
-Thomas, So. (decent amount of starting experience)
-Fletcher, So. (no starting experience but was the 6th man before his injury)
-Collier, Fr. (I expect him to start during conference play)
-Miller, Fr. (Big body banger that we haven't had who has a lot of experience against top competition)

2. Injuries
-We didn't just lose Dinwiddie, we also lost Fletcher and Gordon. Even when Gordon came back he was not even close to 100% and was still pretty gimpy. We lost our best player, our best interior defender and shot blocker, and the best freshman defender. Those are huge blows to a team that was already young.

3. Shooting
-With the added strength that I am assuming Thomas will gain over the off season, he will be able to get to the rim and that will open up his outside shot, which he has shown he can hit from his HS stats and reports from practice. Ski will be a volume shooter still but he shouldn't have to shoot as many last second 3's to beat the buzzer which lowered his shooting percentage. XJ shot 36.3% from 3 this season, and I expect that to improve a little next season.

4. Weaker Pac 12
-While CU returns damn near 100% of their experience, almost every other Pac 12 team loses quite a bit. UCLA, Furd, Wazzu, UW, UO, OSU, Cal, USC, and ASU all lose significant contributors. Teams like UA and UO will still be strong, and so will UCLA but we will be much better next year. I'm not saying the Pac 12 will be a cake walk, but UW, OSU, USC, ASU, and WSU are all going to be bad IMO. Anything less than a top 4 finish and I'll be disappointed.

5. Year-to-Year Development
-Every off-season that Tad has been here we have seen significant improvement from the players. From Burks, to Dre, to Spencer, to Scott, to Talton, to XJ. Just like those players before them, I expect the freshman to make a big jump. Fletcher was already coming into his own before his injury, with 9 months between his injuries and tip off, I expect he'll be comfortable with his knee again and continue to progress. He's going to be a very good defender for us and good defense will open up the offense. Thomas showed flashes, but it was very clear that he needed to get stronger to be effective. Staying in Boulder over the summer is the best thing he could do. Jaron also showed flashes last year and improvement as the year went along, specifically on the defensive end just as XJ and Scott did.

6. Tad Boyle
-Just read the KenPom thread on Boyle being a very good coach.

We found a way to go 10-8 last year despite injuries to two of our starters and the best freshman in a conference that was very deep and a good conference. I'm not saying .500 is impossible, but I don't think it's at all likely. Do some things need to be fixed? Absolutely, but unless you're immensely talented like Arizona, or Kentucky, or Michigan it's very tough to win a lot when you are extremely young. I have no problem with not being in the pre-season top 25, we shouldn't yet, but by conference play the team next year could be very dangerous and make a lot of noise in the Pac 12.

 

[Darth Snow]

1. Experience
-Last season, we were 343rd in D1 in experience at 0.9 years, there are 351 teams in D1 and the next team from the Pac 12 is at #327 and that's Arizona who is immensely talented. We return everyone but Spencer so far. Ski is a senior and I expect him to continue to get better given his work ethic and how Tad has developed players during his time here. Josh and XJ are upper classmen, same with Talton and I expect them to take another step forward. With experience comes time in the weight room and the freshman and really the rest of the team need to get in the weight room. Scott, Gordon, and Dustin all plan on staying in Boulder during the summer and I am going to go out on a limb and say they are all planning on working out/practicing this summer with each other. Scott put on significant weight last offseason and said he plans on gaining more, I expect Dustin will follow this model. We saw how key experience is during the tournament, with the exception of Kentucky and this will be the first time we will have a experienced roster since Tad's first season.

1 - Talton, Jr./Collier, Fr.
2 - Booker, Sr.
3 - Johnson, Jr.
4 - Gordon, So. (3rd year on campus)
5 - Scott, Jr.

Bench:
-Hopkins, So. (good amount of starting experience)
-Thomas, So. (decent amount of starting experience)
-Fletcher, So. (no starting experience but was the 6th man before his injury)
-Collier, Fr. (I expect him to start during conference play)
-Miller, Fr. (Big body banger that we haven't had who has a lot of experience against top competition)

2. Injuries
-We didn't just lose Dinwiddie, we also lost Fletcher and Gordon. Even when Gordon came back he was not even close to 100% and was still pretty gimpy. We lost our best player, our best interior defender and shot blocker, and the best freshman defender. Those are huge blows to a team that was already young.

3. Shooting
-With the added strength that I am assuming Thomas will gain over the off season, he will be able to get to the rim and that will open up his outside shot, which he has shown he can hit from his HS stats and reports from practice. Ski will be a volume shooter still but he shouldn't have to shoot as many last second 3's to beat the buzzer which lowered his shooting percentage. XJ shot 36.3% from 3 this season, and I expect that to improve a little next season.

4. Weaker Pac 12
-While CU returns damn near 100% of their experience, almost every other Pac 12 team loses quite a bit. UCLA, Furd, Wazzu, UW, UO, OSU, Cal, USC, and ASU all lose significant contributors. Teams like UA and UO will still be strong, and so will UCLA but we will be much better next year. I'm not saying the Pac 12 will be a cake walk, but UW, OSU, USC, ASU, and WSU are all going to be bad IMO. Anything less than a top 4 finish and I'll be disappointed.

5. Year-to-Year Development
-Every off-season that Tad has been here we have seen significant improvement from the players. From Burks, to Dre, to Spencer, to Scott, to Talton, to XJ. Just like those players before them, I expect the freshman to make a big jump. Fletcher was already coming into his own before his injury, with 9 months between his injuries and tip off, I expect he'll be comfortable with his knee again and continue to progress. He's going to be a very good defender for us and good defense will open up the offense. Thomas showed flashes, but it was very clear that he needed to get stronger to be effective. Staying in Boulder over the summer is the best thing he could do. Jaron also showed flashes last year and improvement as the year went along, specifically on the defensive end just as XJ and Scott did.

6. Tad Boyle
-Just read the KenPom thread on Boyle being a very good coach.

We found a way to go 10-8 last year despite injuries to two of our starters and the best freshman in a conference that was very deep and a good conference. I'm not saying .500 is impossible, but I don't think it's at all likely. Do some things need to be fixed? Absolutely, but unless you're immensely talented like Arizona, or Kentucky, or Michigan it's very tough to win a lot when you are extremely young. I have no problem with not being in the pre-season top 25, we shouldn't yet, but by conference play the team next year could be very dangerous and make a lot of noise in the Pac 12.

1. You overstate the experience of the bench.
2. Yup.
3. Best case scenario prediction = unlikely to occur.
4. You forgot to mention teams that will be better, like UTAH. Oh, and Arizona could be a lot worse and still be really really good. UCLA has never lost to us in the p12. UW has guys coming back from injury and a great recruitting class. Oh ya, and you forgot to mention SPENCER ****ING DINWIDDIE leaving.
5. Best case scenario prediction = unlikely to occur. Some players will get better, some won't. Any real eye openers.
6. Tad is good. X's and O's can only do so much. So far, Tad has been able to win a few big games, go on one really hot run to win a few tournament games, and keep us consistently in the tournament. He's also had some really bad blowout losses. At some point, the Jimmys and Joes have to be there too. Until we have them, it will be a struggle to be better than top 6 in the P12.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

So now the truth comes out.


Tini is the long-lost, illegitimate son of Mtn.

 

[BuffG]

1. You overstate the experience of the bench.
2. Yup.
3. Best case scenario prediction = unlikely to occur.
4. You forgot to mention teams that will be better, like UTAH. Oh, and Arizona could be a lot worse and still be really really good. UCLA has never lost to us in the p12. UW has guys coming back from injury and a great recruitting class. Oh ya, and you forgot to mention SPENCER ****ING DINWIDDIE leaving.
5. Best case scenario prediction = unlikely to occur. Some players will get better, some won't. Any real eye openers.
6. Tad is good. X's and O's can only do so much. So far, Tad has been able to win a few big games, go on one really hot run to win a few tournament games, and keep us consistently in the tournament. He's also had some really bad blowout losses. At some point, the Jimmys and Joes have to be there too. Until we have them, it will be a struggle to be better than top 6 in the P12.

UCLA needs Jordan Adams to come back or they'll be heavily reliant on Isaac Hamilton. Powell is a really good two-way guard but isn't an orchestrator. Alford as the top bench guard? Please. Looney seems interesting but Welsh doesn't look like he'll be dominant anytime soon. In short, UCLA could easily take a step back. Top 4 could be UofA 1st with CU, Utah, and Oregon in no particular order. Every other team has more questions than answers at this point.

Find it funny that the common sentiment is that CU is a lock for preseason top 25 with Dinwiddie back. That assumes he's ready to go by November (incredible) and if he isn't then we'll have no better chance of cracking the preseason top 25 than if he was gone entirely.

Remember, 365 days ago, the same conversations and projections were being had with Roberson. Ultimately, didn't make any pre top 25 and that was with Dinwiddie being projected as a 1st rounder. We don't have anyone else with that kind of projection heading into the season. Finishing top 25 is more likely

 

[CVilleBuff]

SIAP, but SI has CU #9 in their rankings assuming Dinwiddie returns.

 

[Daaah]

SIAP, but SI has CU #9 in their rankings assuming Dinwiddie returns.

Ho Li fuk.

 

[rolandftw]

SIAP, but SI has CU #9 in their rankings assuming Dinwiddie returns.

Sounds about right. CU will be a very dangerous team if Dinwiddie returns at close to 100%