Menu
What's new
By:
Filters
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!

Wbb Top-25 ranking discussion thread

So the loss to MVSU was disheartening, but in reality we knew the Buffs weren't as good as the AP top-25 poll had them ranked. Its just too hard to reconcile the Buffs were the 15th best team in NCAAW but completely unranked in the USA Today Coaches poll. Now the Buffs were just a single vote from being ranked #25 in the USA Today Coaches poll. South Florida was sitting in the #25 spot with 68 votes, meanwhile Colorado had 67 votes. A single higher placement on any vote, or a single vote from a coach that wasn't voting and the Buffs would be tied with S.Florida. There are only 32 coaches voting in the USA Today Coaches poll, one from each conference receiving an automatic bid to the NCAAW tournament.

Breaking that down, it means (on average) every coach in the country had the Buffs ranked at least as high as 24th. If, for example, all 32 coaches voted the Buffs to the #24 ranking in the USA then CU would have 64 points. They have 67 points so they definitely received some votes higher than #24. Then again, other coaches might not have voted for CU at all. So there you go. AP top-25 poll has the Buffs ranked as high as 15th for Week 7. Then the Buffs are averaging at least a 24th rank vote on every coaches ballot, but still are unranked (by the value of a single 25th rank vote). So how good are the Buffs really, which is more accurate begin the 15th best team in the country, the 26th best team in the country or worse?

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings

Prior to the unfortunate MVSU game, the Buffs were the 37th best team in the country per the Sagarin rankings:

37.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 84.08

That's probably a much more realistic indicator of where the Buffs truly were versus thinking they were a Sweet-16 capable team (at this point in the season). After the MVSU game the Buffs took a big hit falling six spots to 43rd:

43.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 82.35

That probably was a ranking drop that was over exaggerated, after facing an MVSU game poised for an upset that CU just didn't match up well against. The Buffs went into the Wyoming game as the clear favorite, and the idea was that the ship would be righted from the MVSU storm and scare. No one I talked to thought the Cowgirls were going to the upset our Buffs on home court. Little did we know.

Wyoming came into the game as a decent mid-major program, almost exactly on par with Northern Colorado. Wyoming was ranked 122nd by Sagarin and had a rating of 71.39, whereas Northern Colorado was ranked 123rd with a 70.87 rating. Colorado had nearly a 10 point rating predictor advantage, before considering the 3-4 point home court advantage (base HC advantage is 4.0 ratings points, and this season NCAAW overall HC is good for 3.03 ratings bonus).

Well the Buffs lost to Wyoming 82-75. Which isn't surprising considering how poorly the Buffs played against the Cowgirls. Freeman was a scoring force inside and Leonard redeemed three quarters of poor play with a ferocious 4Q scoring flourish that was a thing to behold. Aside from the those two performances, the whole team just seemed to be "off" all night long. They just looked disjointed and not on the same page at all. Players were out of position defensively, or were just getting beat, and on offense it looked at times like the Buffs just weren't reading each other on passes (some of which ended up out of bounds). Even just dribbling or trying to rebound things just looked "awkward" at times for the whole team. There will be games like that. These are amateur athletes, and students first, basketball second, we should remember that. Still the Buffs had a chance late to tie the game. Kennedy had that amazing penetration and dish to Correal, and the miss was a microcosm of the entire game. Missing layups and unable to just finish. So it goes. I thought it was a great way to renew a cross-border rivalry. I can't wait for the Buffs to play Wyoming next year on their home court, to pull off a win against them on their floor. Hats off to the Cowgirls. Buffs fans are aware of Wyoming now, I promise you that.

After the game the Buffs suffered a precipitous fall in the Sagarin rankings:

57.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 80.10

Let's look at the falling rating next to each other:

37.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 84.08 (before MVSU)
43.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 82.35 (after MVSU)
57.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 80.10 (after Wyoming)

Meanwhile knocking off CU was good enough to propel Wyoming from 122nd and a rating of 71.39 to being ranked 96th and a rating of 74.07, good for them. They played hard and hit big threes and were clearly the better team that night. They deserved to win, and that win against a ranked CU Buffs team was probably all the more special because of the cross border rivalry, like if instead of knocking off UK when they were 13/15 instead it had been Kansas or Nebraska. Probably not even then. Just a signature win for the Wyoming Cowgirls.

What does all this mean for the Buffs? Are they the 15th, the 26th, the 37th, the 43rd, or the 57th best team in the country? All of those and none of those, probably.

Let's dig deeper. Sagarin shares an interesting NCAAW metric called Schedule Rating. What it is is the rating for a hypothetical team to play the same schedule the team has faced, but the rating necessary to win 50% of those games. We knew the Buffs had one of the worst strength of schedules in Div-I this year, but 10-0 is was and always will be still ten wins. However, a little more unpacking at 10-1 reveals that the Schedule Rating for the Buffs was only 60.89

That means that a hypothetical team playing the CU Buffs schedule this year only needs a Sagarin NCAAW rating of 60.89 to have five wins. What does a team with a 60.89 rating look like, not good:

http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php

It just so happens that the Conference Win 50% rating for the Sun Belt Conference is 60.89. So a team with a Sagarin rating of 60.89 would have won half the games the Buffs have played this season, and win half the Sun Belt Conference games (on a neutral court). The Denver University Pioneers are one of the worst regional NCAAW teams, they have only a 56.48 rating, so wouldn't quite win 50% of CU's games this season. The Pioneers are pretty terrible right now and have been for several years. Put it this way, JR Payne once put Southern Utah on the map taking them to the 2nd round in the WNIT. This season Southern Utah is only 4-6, but they have a rating of 61.95, so they'd win a bit more than 50% of the games on CU's schedule so far. That's not good. The difference between Southern Utah and being Colorado in the Pac-12 can't simply by a mere four more wins, but it is. Northern Arizona is the closest team in the Sagarin ratings to 60.89 being ranked 224th with a 60.81 rating. That's the quality of a team necessary to win 50% of the games on the Buffs schedule so far, being just the 224th best team of the 349 Div-I NCAAW teams.

Let's unpack that, if you have the patience. Who has Northern Arizona played so far?

N.Ariz @UTEP (Win, 65-51)
N.Ariz vs Antelope Valley Pioneers (Win, 109-60)
N.Ariz @CalPoly Mustangs (Loss, 53-58)
N.Ariz @UCSantaBarbara Gauchos (Loss, 51-60)
N.Ariz @Lamar Lady Cardinals (Loss, 60-75)
N.Ariz vs. Youngstown State Penguins (Win, 70-49)
N.Ariz vs. CalSt. Northridge Matadors (Loss, 79-83)
N.Ariz vs Denver Pioneers (Win, 82-67)
N.Ariz vs NexMexico St. Aggies (Loss, 79-68)
N.Ariz @GrandCanyon Antelopes (Loss, 76-55)
N.Ariz @Utah Utes (Loss, 78-65)
N.Ariz @Southern Utah Thunderbirds (12/31/16)

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks only have three NCAAW Div-I wins, and four wins overall and sit at just 3-7 excepting out the exhibition game against non-Div-I school Antelope Valley. Yet, if Northern Arizona were to have actually have played the CU Buffs schedule they'd have a minimum of five wins. Their rating is sufficient to win 50% of the games the Buffs have played. That just is not good.

So how good are the Buffs? How can we really tell how good a team is when they don't play any good teams? UK was pretty good and the Buffs beat them, upsetting them when they were ranked 13th/15th and CSU was pretty good. Wyoming beat CU and the Buffs are on a disturbing downward trend and have shown an inclination to return to last season's form (as another poster put it).

What does this mean for the Pac-12 schedule? Let's look to the Sagarin predictor to see how the Pac-12 season would play out if the ratings as-of today were locked in the rest of the season (if form didn't change, coaches couldn't coach and no one ever got hurt). The Buffs Pac-12 schedule (home team gets 3.03 ratings bonus)

57.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 80.10


@USC (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 42nd Sagarin - 82.14 (85.17 w/bonus)
@#UCLA (#10th AP, #10th USA/Coaches - 9th Sagarin - 93.77 (96.80 w/bonus)

Arizona (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 112th Sagarin - 71.91
Arizona State (#21st AP, #19th USA Coaches) - 22nd Sagarin - 87.88

Cal (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 28th Sagarin - 86.22
Stanford (#14 AP, #14th USA/Coaches) - 13th Sagarin - 91.97

@Oregon (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 30th Sagarin - 86.03 (89.06 w/bonus)
@Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches) - 22nd - 87.88 (90.91 w/bonus)

Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 34th Sagarin - 84.16
@Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 34th Sagarin - 84.16 (87.19 w/bonus)

Washington State (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 46th Sagarin - 81.34
Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coaches) - 8th Sagarin - 96.79

@Stanford (#14 AP, #14th USA/Coaches) - 13th Sagarin - 91.97 (95.00 w/bonus)
@Cal (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 28th Sagarin - 86.22 (89.30 w/bonus)

Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches) - 22nd - 87.88
Oregon (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 30th Sagarin - 86.03

@Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coaches) - 8th Sagarin - 96.79 (99.82 w/bonus)
@WashingtonSt. (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 46th Sagarin - 81.34 (84.37 w/bonus)

Wow. What a brutal gauntlet. No wonder Sagarin has the Pac-12 as the #1 conference through Dec 22nd still, by Central Mean, Arithmetic Mean (Simple Average) and Win50%. Central Mean gives the most weight to the teams in the middle of the conference with the least weighting to the top and bottom teams in the conference. Arithmetic Mean weights each team equally the same. Win50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games in that conference. The Pac-12 is the best conference weighted for the middle teams neither at the top of the conference or the bottom, the best conference all teams being considered top-to-bottom, and its the most difficult conference in all of NCAAW to win 50% of any conference team's games.

Strictly by the metrics, as-of the Wyoming loss, the Buffs should go 2-16 in the Pac-12 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings (which change after every game). The only wins the Buffs have "on paper" are against Arizona and Washington State at home, and the Buffs finish without a single road win in conference play.

Now the Buffs looked like they played a terrible game against Wyoming and the team looked disjointed the whole night offensively and defensively. Simply put, I think most CU fans believe the Buffs can be a better team almost every night than they played against Wyoming. However, the Buffs have looked better most of the non-conference portion of their schedule.

It shouldn't be lost on anyone that playing 304th least competitive non-conference Strength of Schedule isn't good, out of just 349 teams. Especially when the conference part of your schedule is the absolute #1 ranked conference by every measure, account and metric. The Buffs have 10 wins today, and the Sagarin Predictor says they'll finish just 12-17 on the season, and just 2-16 in conference play.

Mike Neighbors, the Washington coach who went to the Final Four last year with former Buffs walk-on Alexus Atchely as a Starting Captain player, is the representative for the Pac-12 this season in the USA Today/Coach's Poll. I think that poll is more right than the AP poll at this point, and I think Sagarin is more right than anyone. The Buffs aren't inside the bubble of sweet-16 capable teams, and in fact looked more like a Mountain West bottom feeder than a Pac-12 bottom feeder vs Wyoming. Sagarin has the Buffs ranked 57th right now, which would put them just inside the NCAAW tournament bubble of 4 teams. They might be that good, but the idea that the Buffs would get an NCAAW invitation with a 12-17 record and 2-16 conference record is pure fantasy.

However, the old adage remains, "that's why they play the games." Unlike the College Football Playoffs the champion will not be decided by politicking or conference loyalties or TV monies, but rather on the court. The Buffs have a chance to win every game they play in, such is the nature of sport.

I'd love to see the Buffs pull some upsets and continue to develop. I think JR Payne is a great coach and can get this team playing at a higher level than the Linda Lappe standard. However, I'm not sure how Payne competes in the Pac-12 with a roster that doesn't have much at the 4 & 5. I don't think there is a Pac-12 player on this roster, right now, at the 4 & 5 positions. Then again, Correal and Leonard looked special together working their pick & roll game against UK. I'd love to see the guards elevate the level of play of their teammates as truly great players do, making everyone around them better.

I don't know what is going to happen, but I can't wait to find out. Bring on the Pac-12, and GoBuffs!

Never give in
Shoulder to shoulder
We will fight, fight
Fight! Fight! Fight!
 
As JR has more control over the non-conference schedule, I hope it will get more competitive.

#24 Kansas State visited unranked mid-major UNI last night and got beat. Win some and lose some. Would love to CU schedule UNI as they have a freshman post player that could have played anywhere. She is from the town where I live and wanted to be close so her parents could watch her play. She blocked a shot in the final minute last night and then hit a 3 to win the game. She is a true post player.
 
BoCoBBall said:
So the loss to MVSU was disheartening, but in reality we knew the Buffs weren't as good as the AP top-25 poll had them ranked. Its just too hard to reconcile the Buffs were the 15th best team in NCAAW but completely unranked in the USA Today Coaches poll. Now the Buffs were just a single vote from being ranked #25 in the USA Today Coaches poll. South Florida was sitting in the #25 spot with 68 votes, meanwhile Colorado had 67 votes. A single higher placement on any vote, or a single vote from a coach that wasn't voting and the Buffs would be tied with S.Florida. There are only 32 coaches voting in the USA Today Coaches poll, one from each conference receiving an automatic bid to the NCAAW tournament.

Breaking that down, it means (on average) every coach in the country had the Buffs ranked at least as high as 24th. If, for example, all 32 coaches voted the Buffs to the #24 ranking in the USA then CU would have 64 points. They have 67 points so they definitely received some votes higher than #24. Then again, other coaches might not have voted for CU at all. So there you go. AP top-25 poll has the Buffs ranked as high as 15th for Week 7. Then the Buffs are averaging at least a 24th rank vote on every coaches ballot, but still are unranked (by the value of a single 25th rank vote). So how good are the Buffs really, which is more accurate begin the 15th best team in the country, the 26th best team in the country or worse?

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings

Prior to the unfortunate MVSU game, the Buffs were the 37th best team in the country per the Sagarin rankings:

37.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 84.08

That's probably a much more realistic indicator of where the Buffs truly were versus thinking they were a Sweet-16 capable team (at this point in the season). After the MVSU game the Buffs took a big hit falling six spots to 43rd:

43.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 82.35

That probably was a ranking drop that was over exaggerated, after facing an MVSU game poised for an upset that CU just didn't match up well against. The Buffs went into the Wyoming game as the clear favorite, and the idea was that the ship would be righted from the MVSU storm and scare. No one I talked to thought the Cowgirls were going to the upset our Buffs on home court. Little did we know.

Wyoming came into the game as a decent mid-major program, almost exactly on par with Northern Colorado. Wyoming was ranked 122nd by Sagarin and had a rating of 71.39, whereas Northern Colorado was ranked 123rd with a 70.87 rating. Colorado had nearly a 10 point rating predictor advantage, before considering the 3-4 point home court advantage (base HC advantage is 4.0 ratings points, and this season NCAAW overall HC is good for 3.03 ratings bonus).

Well the Buffs lost to Wyoming 82-75. Which isn't surprising considering how poorly the Buffs played against the Cowgirls. Freeman was a scoring force inside and Leonard redeemed three quarters of poor play with a ferocious 4Q scoring flourish that was a thing to behold. Aside from the those two performances, the whole team just seemed to be "off" all night long. They just looked disjointed and not on the same page at all. Players were out of position defensively, or were just getting beat, and on offense it looked at times like the Buffs just weren't reading each other on passes (some of which ended up out of bounds). Even just dribbling or trying to rebound things just looked "awkward" at times for the whole team. There will be games like that. These are amateur athletes, and students first, basketball second, we should remember that. Still the Buffs had a chance late to tie the game. Kennedy had that amazing penetration and dish to Correal, and the miss was a microcosm of the entire game. Missing layups and unable to just finish. So it goes. I thought it was a great way to renew a cross-border rivalry. I can't wait for the Buffs to play Wyoming next year on their home court, to pull off a win against them on their floor. Hats off to the Cowgirls. Buffs fans are aware of Wyoming now, I promise you that.

After the game the Buffs suffered a precipitous fall in the Sagarin rankings:

57.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 80.10

Let's look at the falling rating next to each other:

37.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 84.08 (before MVSU)
43.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 82.35 (after MVSU)
57.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 80.10 (after Wyoming)

Meanwhile knocking off CU was good enough to propel Wyoming from 122nd and a rating of 71.39 to being ranked 96th and a rating of 74.07, good for them. They played hard and hit big threes and were clearly the better team that night. They deserved to win, and that win against a ranked CU Buffs team was probably all the more special because of the cross border rivalry, like if instead of knocking off UK when they were 13/15 instead it had been Kansas or Nebraska. Probably not even then. Just a signature win for the Wyoming Cowgirls.

What does all this mean for the Buffs? Are they the 15th, the 26th, the 37th, the 43rd, or the 57th best team in the country? All of those and none of those, probably.

Let's dig deeper. Sagarin shares an interesting NCAAW metric called Schedule Rating. What it is is the rating for a hypothetical team to play the same schedule the team has faced, but the rating necessary to win 50% of those games. We knew the Buffs had one of the worst strength of schedules in Div-I this year, but 10-0 is was and always will be still ten wins. However, a little more unpacking at 10-1 reveals that the Schedule Rating for the Buffs was only 60.89

That means that a hypothetical team playing the CU Buffs schedule this year only needs a Sagarin NCAAW rating of 60.89 to have five wins. What does a team with a 60.89 rating look like, not good:

http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php

It just so happens that the Conference Win 50% rating for the Sun Belt Conference is 60.89. So a team with a Sagarin rating of 60.89 would have won half the games the Buffs have played this season, and win half the Sun Belt Conference games (on a neutral court). The Denver University Pioneers are one of the worst regional NCAAW teams, they have only a 56.48 rating, so wouldn't quite win 50% of CU's games this season. The Pioneers are pretty terrible right now and have been for several years. Put it this way, JR Payne once put Southern Utah on the map taking them to the 2nd round in the WNIT. This season Southern Utah is only 4-6, but they have a rating of 61.95, so they'd win a bit more than 50% of the games on CU's schedule so far. That's not good. The difference between Southern Utah and being Colorado in the Pac-12 can't simply by a mere four more wins, but it is. Northern Arizona is the closest team in the Sagarin ratings to 60.89 being ranked 224th with a 60.81 rating. That's the quality of a team necessary to win 50% of the games on the Buffs schedule so far, being just the 224th best team of the 349 Div-I NCAAW teams.

Let's unpack that, if you have the patience. Who has Northern Arizona played so far?

N.Ariz @UTEP (Win, 65-51)
N.Ariz vs Antelope Valley Pioneers (Win, 109-60)
N.Ariz @CalPoly Mustangs (Loss, 53-58)
N.Ariz @UCSantaBarbara Gauchos (Loss, 51-60)
N.Ariz @Lamar Lady Cardinals (Loss, 60-75)
N.Ariz vs. Youngstown State Penguins (Win, 70-49)
N.Ariz vs. CalSt. Northridge Matadors (Loss, 79-83)
N.Ariz vs Denver Pioneers (Win, 82-67)
N.Ariz vs NexMexico St. Aggies (Loss, 79-68)
N.Ariz @GrandCanyon Antelopes (Loss, 76-55)
N.Ariz @Utah Utes (Loss, 78-65)
N.Ariz @Southern Utah Thunderbirds (12/31/16)

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks only have three NCAAW Div-I wins, and four wins overall and sit at just 3-7 excepting out the exhibition game against non-Div-I school Antelope Valley. Yet, if Northern Arizona were to have actually have played the CU Buffs schedule they'd have a minimum of five wins. Their rating is sufficient to win 50% of the games the Buffs have played. That just is not good.

So how good are the Buffs? How can we really tell how good a team is when they don't play any good teams? UK was pretty good and the Buffs beat them, upsetting them when they were ranked 13th/15th and CSU was pretty good. Wyoming beat CU and the Buffs are on a disturbing downward trend and have shown an inclination to return to last season's form (as another poster put it).

What does this mean for the Pac-12 schedule? Let's look to the Sagarin predictor to see how the Pac-12 season would play out if the ratings as-of today were locked in the rest of the season (if form didn't change, coaches couldn't coach and no one ever got hurt). The Buffs Pac-12 schedule (home team gets 3.03 ratings bonus)

57.) Colorado (#15th AP, Unranked USA Today Coaches) - 80.10


@USC (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 42nd Sagarin - 82.14 (85.17 w/bonus)
@#UCLA (#10th AP, #10th USA/Coaches - 9th Sagarin - 93.77 (96.80 w/bonus)

Arizona (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 112th Sagarin - 71.91
Arizona State (#21st AP, #19th USA Coaches) - 22nd Sagarin - 87.88

Cal (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 28th Sagarin - 86.22
Stanford (#14 AP, #14th USA/Coaches) - 13th Sagarin - 91.97

@Oregon (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 30th Sagarin - 86.03 (89.06 w/bonus)
@Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches) - 22nd - 87.88 (90.91 w/bonus)

Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 34th Sagarin - 84.16
@Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 34th Sagarin - 84.16 (87.19 w/bonus)

Washington State (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 46th Sagarin - 81.34
Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coaches) - 8th Sagarin - 96.79

@Stanford (#14 AP, #14th USA/Coaches) - 13th Sagarin - 91.97 (95.00 w/bonus)
@Cal (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 28th Sagarin - 86.22 (89.30 w/bonus)

Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches) - 22nd - 87.88
Oregon (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 30th Sagarin - 86.03

@Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coaches) - 8th Sagarin - 96.79 (99.82 w/bonus)
@WashingtonSt. (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 46th Sagarin - 81.34 (84.37 w/bonus)

Wow. What a brutal gauntlet. No wonder Sagarin has the Pac-12 as the #1 conference through Dec 22nd still, by Central Mean, Arithmetic Mean (Simple Average) and Win50%. Central Mean gives the most weight to the teams in the middle of the conference with the least weighting to the top and bottom teams in the conference. Arithmetic Mean weights each team equally the same. Win50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games in that conference. The Pac-12 is the best conference weighted for the middle teams neither at the top of the conference or the bottom, the best conference all teams being considered top-to-bottom, and its the most difficult conference in all of NCAAW to win 50% of any conference team's games.

Strictly by the metrics, as-of the Wyoming loss, the Buffs should go 2-16 in the Pac-12 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings (which change after every game). The only wins the Buffs have "on paper" are against Arizona and Washington State at home, and the Buffs finish without a single road win in conference play.

Now the Buffs looked like they played a terrible game against Wyoming and the team looked disjointed the whole night offensively and defensively. Simply put, I think most CU fans believe the Buffs can be a better team almost every night than they played against Wyoming. However, the Buffs have looked better most of the non-conference portion of their schedule.

It shouldn't be lost on anyone that playing 304th least competitive non-conference Strength of Schedule isn't good, out of just 349 teams. Especially when the conference part of your schedule is the absolute #1 ranked conference by every measure, account and metric. The Buffs have 10 wins today, and the Sagarin Predictor says they'll finish just 12-17 on the season, and just 2-16 in conference play.

Mike Neighbors, the Washington coach who went to the Final Four last year with former Buffs walk-on Alexus Atchely as a Starting Captain player, is the representative for the Pac-12 this season in the USA Today/Coach's Poll. I think that poll is more right than the AP poll at this point, and I think Sagarin is more right than anyone. The Buffs aren't inside the bubble of sweet-16 capable teams, and in fact looked more like a Mountain West bottom feeder than a Pac-12 bottom feeder vs Wyoming. Sagarin has the Buffs ranked 57th right now, which would put them just inside the NCAAW tournament bubble of 4 teams. They might be that good, but the idea that the Buffs would get an NCAAW invitation with a 12-17 record and 2-16 conference record is pure fantasy.

However, the old adage remains, "that's why they play the games." Unlike the College Football Playoffs the champion will not be decided by politicking or conference loyalties or TV monies, but rather on the court. The Buffs have a chance to win every game they play in, such is the nature of sport.

I'd love to see the Buffs pull some upsets and continue to develop. I think JR Payne is a great coach and can get this team playing at a higher level than the Linda Lappe standard. However, I'm not sure how Payne competes in the Pac-12 with a roster that doesn't have much at the 4 & 5. I don't think there is a Pac-12 player on this roster, right now, at the 4 & 5 positions. Then again, Correal and Leonard looked special together working their pick & roll game against UK. I'd love to see the guards elevate the level of play of their teammates as truly great players do, making everyone around them better.

I don't know what is going to happen, but I can't wait to find out. Bring on the Pac-12, and GoBuffs!

Never give in
Shoulder to shoulder
We will fight, fight
Fight! Fight! Fight!
Click to expand...
Are you related to rumbling buff?
 
Goose said:
You don't have to read it. I enjoy their posts.
Click to expand...

Seconded. Thanks to those who take the time to break down things the casual viewer may not immediately notice when watching a game and point out trends over a season. This analysis adds value and is terrific content for the board.
 
buffgal said:
As JR has more control over the non-conference schedule, I hope it will get more competitive.

#24 Kansas State visited unranked mid-major UNI last night and got beat. Win some and lose some. Would love to CU schedule UNI as they have a freshman post player that could have played anywhere. She is from the town where I live and wanted to be close so her parents could watch her play. She blocked a shot in the final minute last night and then hit a 3 to win the game. She is a true post player.
Click to expand...

I fully expect you're right. I'd be curious to know if JR scheduled Stanford for Santa Clara, or they always play, or the previous coach scheduled that game. I think the era of a non-competitive non-conference schedule is not going to be the JR Payne way. She'll be a great coach and won't need to find make believe wins versus the dregs of NCAAW. Great NCAAW teams want to face great competition.
 
BoCoBBall said:
I fully expect you're right. I'd be curious to know if JR scheduled Stanford for Santa Clara, or they always play, or the previous coach scheduled that game. I think the era of a non-competitive non-conference schedule is not going to be the JR Payne way. She'll be a great coach and won't need to find make believe wins versus the dregs of NCAAW. Great NCAAW teams want to face great competition.
Click to expand...

Don't know if JR scheduled the Santa Clara/Stanford game but I hope CU no longer schedules totally non-competitive teams. That kind of schedule does not prepare a team for the rigors of the Pac 12.

Yes, if you want to become great, you must play great teams. I think it hurt women's basketball when Pat Summitt and Geno got in to their feud and she would no longer schedule UConn (as much as I don't watch UConn). That is a game I would have watched.

I just read that Arizona is 8-2. No idea of the kind of competition they have faced.
 
Re: Santa Clara vs Stanford game last season.
I don't know if JR was the one who scheduled it but I seem to recall reading that she fought to keep it on the schedule when someone (I assume the AD) tried to get it changed. Obviously the game did not get taken off the schedule and, as we know, Santa Clara got the W.
 
I remember reading JR had to fight to keep it on the schedule now that you mention it.
 
Watched the first 3 quarters of the Washington-Washington State game last night. Washington is scary good. In addition to Plum and Osahar, they have a transfer from Nebraska named Natalie Romeo. She left after Connie Yori was forced to resign at Nebraska. She is a junior and for some reason isn't sitting out a year after transferring. She was the leading scorer with 25 points. The Huskies went on a 26-0 run. They still shoot lights out from downtown.

Also have Corral, a redshirt senior. She has barely played due to injuries in her first 3 seasons.

Washington State's two leading scorers are injured. One had a boot. Don't know if they are out for the season or not.
 
buffgal said:
Watched the first 3 quarters of the Washington-Washington State game last night. Washington is scary good. In addition to Plum and Osahar, they have a transfer from Nebraska named Natalie Romeo. She left after Connie Yori was forced to resign at Nebraska. She is a junior and for some reason isn't sitting out a year after transferring. She was the leading scorer with 25 points. The Huskies went on a 26-0 run. They still shoot lights out from downtown.

Also have Corral, a redshirt senior. She has barely played due to injuries in her first 3 seasons.

Washington State's two leading scorers are injured. One had a boot. Don't know if they are out for the season or not.
Click to expand...

Well you are certainly right about that. Plum is an exceptional player: Final Four appearance last season, two Pac-12 POW awards this season so far, leads the Pac-12 in BOTH Scoring AND Assist/To ratio. I can't wait to see her play. That's one of my favorite things about the Pac-12 watching the truly great players in the Pac-12 come into Coors. That's also not a good thing, as there really isn't a tougher conference to try to turn this ship around in. I still think JR Payne will be able to do it, and put the CU program back in the nationally relevant conversation permanently.
 
buffgal said:
I remember reading JR had to fight to keep it on the schedule now that you mention it.
Click to expand...

Can you guys elaborate on that? I'm curious as to what went down.

Did the Santa Clara AD try to remove the game or did VanDerveer want out of that game? Considering Stanford then lost that becomes funny either way.
 
The Week 7 loss to Wyoming 75-82 certainly revealed the Buffs were overrated at being ranked #15th in the AP top-25 poll. The Buffs fell to #20th in the Week 8 AP poll:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1/week/8/seasontype/2

That drop to 20th is in sharp contrast to the USA Today Coach's poll. The Buffs only received 3 total votes in the USA/Coach's poll. That's basically just three coaches thinking the Buffs are 25th best, and everyone else thinking they aren't deserving of top-25 consideration. Compare that with the 188 votes the Buffs were receiving in the AP poll.

I think the 20th ranking is probably much too high for the Buffs.

Prior to the USC game Sagarin's NCAAW rankings had the Buffs as just the 51st best team in Division-I behind mid-majors like Green Bay (#14), Gonzaga (#27), South Florida (#28th), and Toledo (#48). To locate the Buffs place in the rankings into a similar context the Buffs at #51 with a 80.61 ranking were just slightly better than #53 South Dakota State with a 80.31 ranking. No one is confusing South Dakota with being a nationally ranked team.

I think many of us going into the Pac-12 schedule have been afraid the the Buffs were completely overrated. Whether ranked 21st, 18th, 15th, or 20th I'm not sure the Buffs deserved to be ranked at all. Wyoming even after beating the Buffs were ranked as only the 88th best team per Sagarin with a 75.39 rating. Yet the Buffs lost that game 75-82 when really ranking should give a pretty good indicator of score outcome in its own right. By the Sagarin ratings the Buffs should have won the Wyoming game 80-75. We saw Wyoming get their 75 points, in fact they got to 82 points in the game, but rather than the Buffs getting their 80 points CU only found 75 points themselves. Wyoming looked like the better team the entire game, and in fact only an incredible scoring flourish by Kennedy Leonard in the 4th Qtr even had the score that close. However, the Buffs were never really in the game late, they just weren't the better team. Throughout the game the Buffs guards (who normally are exceptional on defense) were getting absolutely destroyed defensively.

Going into the USC game the Trojans were ranked by Sagarin as being the 38th best team in NCAAW with a 82.96 rating. With the 3.13 home court bonus, the USC rating should have been good for 86.09. CU being the Sagarin 51st ranked team in NCAAW only brought a 80.61 rating into the game. Yet the game was never that close. CU lost to unranked USC 54-79. I think the Buffs season is about to unravel. USC is not a good Pac-12 team. Sagarin has the Buffs as just the 11th worst team in the Pac-12, but USC isn't much better being ranked as the 9th worst team. Only lowly Arizona is considered worse by Sagarin, and only Washington State separates CU from USC.

I think the Buffs are about to completely fall off the AP top-25 poll radar, and I'd be shocked if they kept receiving significant votes. I think we can kiss those three votes in the USA Today/Coaches poll goodbye as well. The Buffs should be unranked in Week 9, especially with the UCLA game looming.

UCLA. The Bruins are 10th in the USA Today/Coach's Poll and 10th as well in the AP top-25 poll. Sagarin has UCLA ranked 10th in NCAAW with a 94.63 rating. That's before the Bruins get the 3.13 home court advantage. On paper the Buffs have an 80.61 rating to take into the UCLA game to face a 97.76 Bruins team at home. However, the Buffs have been playing very poorly in their past three games (MVSU, Wyoming and USC) and that rating hasn't dropped to reflect the USC data yet. Unless the Buffs find a way to secure an incredible upset at UCLA the Buffs are going to start Pac-12 play 0-2 in conference.
 
So let's revisit the Buffs Pac-12 schedule:

@USC (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 38th Sagarin - 82.96 (86.19 w/bonus) LOSS 54-79

This is how things looked as-of Week 8:

@#UCLA (#10th AP, #10th USA/Coaches - 9th Sagarin - 93.77 (96.80 w/bonus)

Arizona (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 112th Sagarin - 71.91
Arizona State (#21st AP, #19th USA Coaches) - 22nd Sagarin - 87.88

Cal (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 28th Sagarin - 86.22
Stanford (#14 AP, #14th USA/Coaches) - 13th Sagarin - 91.97

@Oregon (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 30th Sagarin - 86.03 (89.06 w/bonus)
@Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches) - 22nd - 87.88 (90.91 w/bonus)

Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 34th Sagarin - 84.16
@Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 34th Sagarin - 84.16 (87.19 w/bonus)

Washington State (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 46th Sagarin - 81.34
Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coaches) - 8th Sagarin - 96.79

@Stanford (#14 AP, #14th USA/Coaches) - 13th Sagarin - 91.97 (95.00 w/bonus)
@Cal (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 28th Sagarin - 86.22 (89.30 w/bonus)

Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches) - 22nd - 87.88
Oregon (unranked AP, #20th USA/Coaches) - 30th Sagarin - 86.03

@ Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coaches) - 8th Sagarin - 96.79 (99.87 w/bonus)
@ WashingtonState (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coaches) - 46th Sagarin - 81.34 (84.42 w/bonus)


Let's take a look at how things look going into Week 9 in the Pac-12 (by descending Sagarin ranking):

Washington (#9 AP, #9 USA/Coach's) - 5th Sagarin - 100.93
The Huskies moved up 1 slot in the AP and USA/Coach's poll but 4 positions in the Sagarin ratings, and became one of six elite teams crossing the 100 rating threshold. They actually moved ahead of Notre Dame in the ratings, but behind UCONN, Baylor, South Carolina and Florida State. They beat Oregon to open Pac-12 play.

UCLA (#10th AP, #10th USA/Coach's - 10th Sagarin - 94.63
The Bruins held pat in both the AP and USA/Coach's poll and managed to fall 1 spot in the Sagarin ratings while actually improving their rating from 93.77 to 94.63. They beat Utah to open Pac-12 play.

Stanford (#13 AP, #14th USA/Coach's) - 11th Sagarin - 93.74
The Cardinal moved up 1 spot in the AP poll and held pat in the USA Today/Coach's poll. They moved up 2 spots in the Sagarin ratings to 11th, with a rating improvement from 91.97 to 93.74 but it seems strange to have Stanford outside the top-10 and not the best team in the conference. They beat Arizona State to open Pac-12 play.

Oregon State (#22 AP, #15th USA/Coach's) - 16th - 90.18
The Beavers moved up 3 spots in the AP poll and stayed pat in the USA Today/Coach's poll. They jumped six spots to move to 16th in the Sagarin ratings, improving from 87.88 to 90.18. They beat Washington State to open Pac-12 play.

Oregon (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coach's) - 25th Sagarin - 87.03 (90.16 w/bonus)
The Ducks fell out of the USA Today/Coach's poll to just receiving 2 votes (1 less than CU). They managed to move up 5 spots in the Sagarin ratings from a rating of 86.03 to a 87.03. They lost to Washington to open Pac-12 play.

Cal (#21st AP, #18th USA/Coach's) - 30th Sagarin - 85.97
The Bears were deserving of begin ranked and broke into the AP top-25 poll at 21st, moved up 2 spots 18th in the USA Today/Coach's poll. They managed to somehow fall 2 spots in the Sagarin ratings to 30th, from a rating of 86.22 to 85.97, without losing a game. They beat Arizona to open Pac-12 play. Cal is undefeated.

Arizona State (#18th AP, #19th USA Coach's) - 31st Sagarin - 85.90
The Sun Devils managed to actually climb in the AP poll while falling in the Sagarin rankings. They moved up 3 slots in the AP poll and stayed pat in the USA Today/Coach's poll. They fell 9 spots in the Sagarin rankings, and their ranking dropped from 87.88 to 85.90, all without losing a game. They lost to Stanford to open Pac-12 play.

Utah (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coach's) - 33rd Sagarin - 85.44
The Utes are receiving votes in the AP and the USA Today/Coach's poll. They moved up one spot in the Sagarin ratings improving their rating from 84.16 to 85.44. They lost to UCLA to open Pac-12 play.

USC (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coach's) - 38th Sagarin - 82.96
The Trojans aren't receiving votes in either poll, but moved four spots in the Sagarin ratings improving from 82.14 to 82.96. The Trojans annihilated our Buffs to open Pac-12 play.

Washington State (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coach's) - 50th Sagarin - 80.99
The Cougars were unranked in either poll, but fell 4 spots in the Sagarin rankings from 81.34 to 80.99. They lost to Oregon State to open Pac-12 play.

Colorado (#20th AP, unranked USA/Coach's) - 51st Sagarin - 80.61
The Buffs fell from 15th to 20th in the AP poll, but the USA Today Coach's poll probably always had it right with Buffs unranked. The Buffs rating moved up to 80.61 right before the USC game, after falling to 80.10 after the Wyoming game. Colorado moved up six spots in the Sagarin rankings before the USC game. The Buffs were exposed versus USC to open Pac-12 play.

Arizona (unranked AP, unranked USA/Coach's) - 115th Sagarin - 71.56
The Wildcats dropped 3 slots in the Sagarin rankings, but really only fell to 71.56 from a ranking of 71.91, the Buffs are closer to being the Arizona Wildcats than they are to being the class of the Pac-12. They lost to Cal to open Pac-12 play.

Where do the wins come from? The Buffs Pac-12 schedule:

@USC loss
@UCLA
Arizona
Arizona State
Cal
Stanford
@Oregon
@Oregon State (#25 AP, #15th USA/Coaches)
Utah
@Utah
Washington State
Washington
@Stanford
@Cal
Oregon State
Oregon
@ Washington
@ Washington State

The Buffs had four winnable games on paper on the Pac-12 schedule, without considering home court advantage. One of those is gone with the USC game on Friday. Buffs need wins to get to the WNIT. Where are the wins? Probably Arizona at home. The Utah games are starting to feel out of reach. That leaves two Washington State games. With the home bonus, per the Sagarin ratings the Buffs could be favored only at home. Could the Buffs really go 2-16 again in the Pac-12 under the new coach? Stay tuned. This roster just is not going to prove to have competitive Pac-12 players. Hopefully JR Payne coach's 'em up, and finds player development that we haven't seen thus far.

I foresee some role changes and a different rotation by season's end than we are seeing right now. I can't imagine JR Payne will go through the Pac-12 season without experimenting to see just what she can find on this roster. She's too good of a coach to keep losing trying the same things that didn't work before and ultimately led to Linda resigning.

I think the low end on the Buffs season right now is 12-19. However, I still believe the Buffs can be as good as Cal or Utah this season. I think that's their ceiling, and I look forward to seeing this team develop. I truly believe JR Payne is a great coach. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team find different combinations or to develop young players to find some way to scrape out seven wins this season. Will that happen? From where we stand today it sure is hard to imagine.

This is hard as its going to get. Two seasons out JR Payne will have some of her own players on this roster. Four seasons out the Buffs will never be recruiting those same three star and low tier four star players ever again. CU will leave those players for the mid-majors, not bring them to the Pac-12 where they don't realistically have a chance to be successful. Never forget, that being one of the worst Pac-12 teams still means this is probably a top-64 team by the metrics. Will the Buffs get an NCAAW invite? No, the Pac-12 won't get 11 invites, but the Buffs can probably compete in the WNIT, the problem is trying to find the wins to qualify.

It wouldn't be worth it if it wasn't hard! Go Buffs!
 
BoCoBBall said:
Can you guys elaborate on that? I'm curious as to what went down.

Did the Santa Clara AD try to remove the game or did VanDerveer want out of that game? Considering Stanford then lost that becomes funny either way.
Click to expand...

I tried to find something about this using google, but found nothing. My recollection, and it could be wrong, is the Santa Clara AD tried to remove the game.
 
Agree that JR is a good coach and will turn this around. We have to be patient and it's hard. Especially after the fast start. Gave us false hope. The differences between this year's team and last year's is the loss of Jamee Swan and, so far this season, Lauren Huggins. They have added Monica Burich, Eleanor Jones, Q and Ariana Freeman. Ari is looking good as a guard but Burich and Jones do not have the talent to replace what was lost in Swan and Huggins. I know Jones has been hurt and hasn't played much.

Swan had talent and she was our only true post player last year. We don't have a true post player.

We have to remember that most schools already had their fall signing class in place. JR had to re-recruit Annika Jank. She did and Jank has signed her NLI, as have two other players.

Most schools already had a good idea of their class of 2018. JR was behind the 8 ball when she got here. So far, there is a verbal commit from Mykaasa Robinson. Hopefully, the other recruits from that class with be of her caliber or better.

That is when the change will be substantial and we better be competitive in the Pac. Only Jones is a JR recruit. She was being recruited by the previous staff. If you remember, when JR was being introduced, Toriano Towns was on a plane to the UK to reel in Jones before the Lappe staff found jobs and got her. Somebody has seen something in her because I don't think JR is in the habit of giving scholarships to players who she thinks can't make it in the conference where she coaches.

Perhaps Jones should have been redshirted. In the past we have had foreign players who were going to leave if they couldn't play. I have no idea if Jones wanted to play immediately since she arrived injured. I hope she turns out to be a great Buff. She needs to work in the weight room as does Q. Ariana was ready and anxious to go.

It's the lack of post play that is killing us and will kill us all season.
 
I am sure JR and staff are working hard right now trying to figure out how to be competitive tomorrow.
 
buffgal said:
Agree that JR is a good coach and will turn this around. We have to be patient and it's hard. Especially after the fast start. Gave us false hope. The differences between this year's team and last year's is the loss of Jamee Swan and, so far this season, Lauren Huggins. They have added Monica Burich, Eleanor Jones, Q and Ariana Freeman. Ari is looking good as a guard but Burich and Jones do not have the talent to replace what was lost in Swan and Huggins. I know Jones has been hurt and hasn't played much.

Swan had talent and she was our only true post player last year. We don't have a true post player.

We have to remember that most schools already had their fall signing class in place. JR had to re-recruit Annika Jank. She did and Jank has signed her NLI, as have two other players.

Most schools already had a good idea of their class of 2018. JR was behind the 8 ball when she got here. So far, there is a verbal commit from Mykaasa Robinson. Hopefully, the other recruits from that class with be of her caliber or better.

That is when the change will be substantial and we better be competitive in the Pac. Only Jones is a JR recruit. She was being recruited by the previous staff. If you remember, when JR was being introduced, Toriano Towns was on a plane to the UK to reel in Jones before the Lappe staff found jobs and got her. Somebody has seen something in her because I don't think JR is in the habit of giving scholarships to players who she thinks can't make it in the conference where she coaches.

Perhaps Jones should have been redshirted. In the past we have had foreign players who were going to leave if they couldn't play. I have no idea if Jones wanted to play immediately since she arrived injured. I hope she turns out to be a great Buff. She needs to work in the weight room as does Q. Ariana was ready and anxious to go.

It's the lack of post play that is killing us and will kill us all season.
Click to expand...

Buffgal, Unfortunately you are spot on; the Loss of Swan and Huggins are much more impactful than many assumed. Swan often demanded a double team in the post and defenses had to play Huggins when she was on the floor. Regardless of the improvement of Ellis, Lex and Cory coupled with the additions of Monica and Ariana it does not make up for the losses of Swan and Huggins. Pac-12 coaches are great and they will continue to focus on taking away our best option. Our guards will have an even heavier burden this year then last year.
 
Buffballer said:
Buffgal, Unfortunately you are spot on; the Loss of Swan and Huggins are much more impactful than many assumed. Swan often demanded a double team in the post and defenses had to play Huggins when she was on the floor. Regardless of the improvement of Ellis, Lex and Cory coupled with the additions of Monica and Ariana it does not make up for the losses of Swan and Huggins. Pac-12 coaches are great and they will continue to focus on taking away our best option. Our guards will have an even heavier burden this year then last year.
Click to expand...

Is huggins out for the year meaning career ended?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top