i think that neither the p10 or b10 are likely to drop schools ... same with the b12... they won't do that... the weak sisters are basically "grandfathered" in.
so, with that in mind, and assuming the p10 and b10 are working together, maybe it shakes out something like this:
p16:
usc/ucla
uw/wsu
ua/asu
stan/cal
ore/ore st
CU/utah
ut/atm
ou/ okie st? tcu? byu? someone else?
b16:
mich
msu
osu
ill
nw
psu
iowa
indiana
minn
wisc.
purdue
mizzery
fuskers
pitt
rutgers
notre dame (maybe they finally decide to play ball? or someone else in their place?)
then, you'd have to figure the sec is going to try to go to 16 as well and they should be able to do that without too much trouble. maybe they pickoff fla. st., miami, clemson, and a few others.
ok, so that's 3 superconferences that would be pretty formidable.
of those left-behind, at least 1 more superconference would form, probably around the ex-b12 teams plus byu, boise, tcu, and other "up and comers"...
the big east and acc survivors would probably combine to form a 5th superconference. i guess...
anyhow, it is crazy to think about it all...