Now, at first glance, it would appear the obvious solution would be to start King & Fletcher and have Fortune coming off of the bench. But when you look deeper, King’s numbers are skewed by two outliers. If you take King’s Auburn game out (which he started), his starting ppg average almost exactly lines up with his seasonal average (13.889 vs 13.867). If you take out his Ft. Lewis clunker (in which he came off of the bench), his bench ppg goes up to 12.75 as well. But, that’s not how stats work, so I dug a little deeper on this. I compared their seasonal average for all five categories to how they lined up for each individual game. Basically, if three or more of the five categories were higher than their seasonal average, I considered it a “good” game. If three or more of the five categories were lower than the seasonal average, I considered it a “bad” game. This is what I saw: As you can see, King’s numbers are seriously skewed by the outliers. His extreme highs help his seasonal average, but hurt him in this comparison. And looking at the numbers, you can technically argue that King & Fletcher are better coming off of the bench than they are starting. But with the fact that there are so many “bad” games versus “good” ones, I was curious how the group worked as a whole – and if the truth of the matter was that all three played well against good opponents and poorly against bad ones. To figure this out, I again compared “good” and “bad” games, but this time figured out the KenPom ranking average of the teams that we played for each category. The lower the number, the better the quality of opponent (note: I removed Ft Lewis from each of these because they aren’t ranked on KP – this cost Fortune & Fletch one “good” game and helped King by removing one of his “bad” ones, but not to much overall change). The team tends to pad its stats against bad teams, and struggle against better ones. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Looking over the numbers, it appears that Fortune has benefited the most from the cupcakes and King has been relatively consistent between opponents. With a situation like this, there is so much "noise" and such a small sample size that it's hard to definitively come to a conclusion, but if I had to the only conclusions I can come up with are that it doesn’t matter who starts, Tad is smarter than the rest of us, and those three guys need to up their game a bit in conference play or we could be in a bit of trouble.