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why all the possible conference changes mean an end to certain traditional powers...

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Liver, Feb 12, 2010.

  1. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    i think we are all quite clear that this whole thing is about television money. television money, ultimately, boils down to being able to deliver ratings. delivering ratings means being in a geographic location where there are lots of tv sets (or, in rare cases, having a national following).

    what this means, long term, is that the "have" and the "have-nots" are going to be distinguished not by their commitment to winning and their excellence on the field, but by whether they are fortunate enough to be part of a conglomerate of schools that will be attractive to television.

    this is why the b12 is in deep trouble. ou and nu have storied programs with long winning traditions in football. yet, if major markets like those dominated by mizzery and CU are no longer part of the conference, the next tv contract for the b12 will be much less lucrative for the member schools. money matters when you are trying to be a major power.

    some of the schools that have been traditionally able to dominate may find themselves on the outside looking in. less television time. less television money. less press. etc.

    and, non-superpower schools that have long benefitted from traditional associations with power conferences are in even worse shape. you wouldn't want to be iowa state, ksu, or baylor from the b12 right now. the weak sisters are going to struggle mightily if all this goes down. and, if you are ksu for example, you've managed a great deal of relatively recent success on the field. yet, that won't help save them.

    and, i admit, i will miss the tradition of the big 8. it was a cool conference. those big 8 titles with darian at the helm were far more satisfying than the b12 championship was for me, probably because of the long history.

    but, i guess those days are gone.

    i suspect ou is going to come out just fine--- they are just too good and too well-backed to not find a home that works-- maybe even an expanded sec? but, what about the fuskers? would an expanded b10 take a chance on them? if not, they are going to be in trouble.

    we have to seize the opportunity while we can. and we should be thankful, for once, that the rocky mountain population has grown so dramatically in the last 25 years. without that explosive growth, we'd be in a far worse position in the coming re-alignments.
     
  2. PhillyBuff

    PhillyBuff Club Member Club Member

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    so.... CU to the Big East?
     
  3. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    This thought occurred to me as well. CU wouldn't be on the Pac 10's radar at all if not for the Denver TV market. The Denver TV market was squat 30 years ago. In some ways, all those *ebraskans who moved here in the last 30 years are the architects of their own demise. Mwaaahahahahaha!!!!!
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2010
  4. 96 Buff

    96 Buff Resident Commie Bastard Club Member Junta Member

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    **** ****braska. I hope they die of gonorrhea and rot in hell.
     
  5. unionbuff

    unionbuff Club Member Club Member

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    Nebraska's not worried. They'll just go independent and watch as the $$$ rolls in.... :rolling_eyes:
     
  6. Darian3Hagan

    Darian3Hagan '89 Player of the Year Club Member

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    Another interesting angle is that the MWC dream of becoming a BCS conference will be squashed by the expansion of Big televen and Pac 10.
     
  7. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    It would make me feel pretty good if kNU and CSU were left out in the cold
     
  8. SCB

    SCB Well-Known Member

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    Well said 96.
     
  9. MontanaBuff

    MontanaBuff Club Member Club Member

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    :yeahthat:
     
  10. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    If BYU successfully blocks Utah from moving on, then the MWC could very well end up reaping the "leftovers" of a demolished Big 12. Very slim chance of there being that much collateral damage, but still possible.
     
  11. SJBuff

    SJBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I agree that TV $$ is the main driver behind all these potential moves but does anyone think their might also be a secondary motive as well...like changing conferences in a way that would result in an easier transition to a play-off system?

    I haven't thought this all the way through but I decided to throw it out there to see your guy's take on it. Could all these changes also lead to a play-off system?
     
  12. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    It is possible that the big conferences are killing two birds with one stone, by getting the major players together for big conference TV contracts; and pairing down the number of "big conference" champions towards a playoff. Maybe the congressional hearings on the BCS scared them, maybe the NCAA issued a "silent" directive to clean things up, or maybe it is just plain old capitalism at work, or maybe the "+1" model is closer to happening and the big 6 don't want to take a chance at being left out of the 4 spots so there is a Darwinian movement to become one of the "big 4".

    What will most certainly happen is that many FBS teams will drop to FCS or lower, as they fail to garner national interest, local support, and continue losing too much money to warrant the expense to "play with the big boys" especially in the current economic climate (which has much longer-term effects for universities than corporate America).

    I think the Big Ten expansion discussion is partly a periodic review as they say, but also driven mostly by the tremendous depression that the Midwest has been under for the last decade and accelerated by the national recession lately. The de-population and near bankruptcy of corporations in the Midwest is a tremendous blow to the Big Ten schools, while the athletic departments are flush with cash, the universities are undergoing some big challenges. Gaining exposure into stable and growing markets (like the Northeast and Texas) is extremely important to their long-term self interests.

    The Pac Ten is also under similar affects of the recession, but it is much more directly impactful to the athletic departments as they have woefully under-marketed their conference and fell behind the times (hence a new commish and assistant commish that are solely there to develop the media rights).
     
  13. TheEvilBeak

    TheEvilBeak Member

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    You may not like it but NU will be fine regardless of any moves. Too much name power and history. Now, CU on the other hand is like the guy named 2 packs in prison. Doesn't matter which cell(conference) you get traded to for 2 packs of cigs, someone is is gonna be having their way with you. I doubt anyone is going anywhere.
     
  14. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    Other last millenium relics with name power and history:
    Trans Am
    Soviet Union
    Mohammad Ali
    Schlitz Beer
    Trans World Airlines
    Route 66
     
  15. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    I sure hope Nubraska goes nowhere in 2010.
     
  16. bombay

    bombay Club Member Club Member

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    I'd like to see the Buffs in the Pac 10. Road trips to LA, Santa Cruz, Seattle, Phoenix, Tuscon, etc. sound like fun.

    Who cares what happens to nubraska.
     
  17. Darian3Hagan

    Darian3Hagan '89 Player of the Year Club Member

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    I didn't know the Banana Slugs were in the Pac 10. Sweet!:smile2:
     
  18. zbuff

    zbuff Club Member Club Member

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    This reasoning falls completely apart with Notre Dame...

    Nebraska would die w/o a conference tie-in, they don't have anywhere near the national following of a Notre Dame. They have a huge in-state following, of course, and somewhat regional, but no chance at independent tv contracts like the golden domers have.
     
  19. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    TV is becoming less important. Its just another old media model fractured by all the choices presented today. Twenty years from now there may not be much football on TV. But the Frapacino channel will teach you about good coffee.
     
  20. 96 Buff

    96 Buff Resident Commie Bastard Club Member Junta Member

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    Someone's still bitter about losing his newspaper gig.
     
  21. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    the domers are in a category of 1. also, you'll note i said "or, in rare cases, have a national following."

    further, the domers own the chicago market and have for many, many years. northwestern is a feel-good story once in a great while, but nd is the big deal there, ratings-wise, in particular.
     
  22. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    :finger:

    Let me ask it another way. Are you watching as much college football now as you were 10 years ago? Are your friends and fellow fans watching as much? If the answer is no that confirms the trend that viewership is declining. And that means the value of these contracts is more at risk.

    January 6, 2006

    The Nielsen National Championship


    While Texas may have won the National Championship, the Wall Street Journal is looking at who is winning the Nielsen Championship. Surprisingly enough, it's the Oregon Ducks football team.

    The WSJ looked at the TV viewership varied as different teams played in various bowl games. At least in theory, this shows that positive/negative viewership impact of inviting a given team. The entire report is available as a PDF, but here's the guts:


    For schools that showed up at least five times in our sample, we compared the rating for each game they played against the average for that particular bowl. (Games that determined the national champion, such as this year’s Rose Bowl, were given their own average.) Rankings are based on ratings
    differential—the percentage by which TV viewership differed from the average in the bowl games they played. Here is how the schools fared:
    RANK/TEAM RATINGS DIFFERENTIAL # OF BOWL GAMES WIN/LOSS

    1 Oregon +16.0% 6 3-3 Go Ducks? Go figure. Team reigns in a medium state without the best opponents.
    2 Washington +10.6 9 3-6 All hail the Pacfic Northwest! Huskies have one low-rated game in 10 years.
    3 Michigan +8.1 12 6-6 Huge alumni base + long tradition + strong opponents = a consistent winner
    4 USC +6.7 5 4-1 The 1996 Rose Bowl (USC vs. Northwestern) had the highest rating in our study.
    5 Texas A&M +6.4 6 1-5 Close games and good opponents have helped with ratings, but not wins.
    6 Penn State +3.3 8 6-2 East coast’s most popular team draws a crowd even in down years.
    7 Notre Dame +3.1 8 1-7 Seven bowl losses and five recent unranked seasons have held them back.
    8 Ohio State +2.4 9 5-4 If not for two lousy Outback Bowls against South Carolina, they’d be topfiv e.
    9 Florida +1.7 13 5-8 Florida State wins more, but Gators are the Florida team the nation watches.
    10 Alabama +0.6 7 3-4 Bear Bryant would be proud: Great showing in last year’s Music City Bowl.
    11 Wisconsin -2.3 8 5-3 Last two times Wisconsin played, Rose Bowl viewership was 13% up from norm.
    12 Purdue -3.2 8 3-5 Boilermakers saved best for biggest game: +16% in the 2001 Rose Bowl.
    13(t) Iowa -4.1 8 5-3 Two of last three Hawkeye bowls had ratings of at least 20% below average.
    13(t) Clemson -4.1 6 1-5 Blame Syracuse? Clemson’s 1996 Gator Bowl against them was a ratings flop.
    15 Florida State -4.3 13 8-5 Seminoles may not live down the ’93 Orange Bowl. Ratings were 67% below norm.
    16 Ole Miss -4.7 5 4-1 Small sample here, but ho-hum opponents may be holding them back.
    17 Auburn -6.3 8 5-3 Last year’s Sugar Bowl flopwas a blow to their ratings reputation.
    18(t) Texas -7.1 9 4-5 Could the Longhorns keepthis year’s Rose Bowl from setting a ratings record?
    18(t) Miami -7.1 10 6-4 Ranked in the AP top20 every year since 1998—but nation isn’t watching.
    18(t) Oklahoma -7.1 6 3-3 Five years ranked No. 6 or better hasn’t helped the Sooners push ratings.
    18(t) Colorado -7.1 7 4-3 Double jeopardy: Nation isn’t watching, and Colorado fans don't travel well, either.
    22 Nebraska -8.5 13 7-6 Not bad for the 38th largest state. Fans travel so well, ratings don't matter.
    23 Georgia -9.0 8 6-2 Three games settled by three points or less didn’t seem to boost ratings.
    24 Tennessee -9.4 12 5-7 Ratings for ’98 title game were 10% above norm; five others were off by 20%.
    25 Arkansas -9.6 5 2-3 All five Arkansas games have fallen below the ratings average.
    26 Kansas State -11.7 8 6-2 Wildcats were part of a 1995 Holiday Bowl, with ratings 44% below average.
    27 LSU -12.5 8 6-2 Tigers’ 2004 national title game was down 11%; last year's Citrus Bowl, down 25%.
    28 Virginia Tech -13.2 8 3-5 Subtract the Michael Vick years and the Hokies are even lower.
    29 West Virginia -17.4 5 1-4 String of soft opponents make this better than it looks.
    30 Syracuse -21.1 6 4-2 Bad opponents and schedule quirks deserve some blame. But not much.
     

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