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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

Unless a UNC game on its SEC platform is worth so much more margin than a UNC game on its ACC platform that it's worth it to pay up - especially in consideration of the risk that FOX could poach UNC to its B1G platform.

In a lot of ways, this is reminding me of when HBO & Showtime tried to take over boxing. That failed, but we don't have the same "independent promoter PPV" factor at play.
nobody knows the real numbers outside of ESPN and the SEC, but some estimates have the SEC getting paid an estimated 4x for carriers in region vs out of region. adding the Virginia and North Carolina markets to their regions could give the SEC extra $100m's per year.
 
Right, ok. Stats 101 was hard I guess
Step 1 Normalize the variable
Avg viewership per team that year (we'll be extremely generous to the pac 12 teams)-
Washington 2.5 mil + wazzou 750k
OU 3 mil + WVU 500k
Iowa and corn 1.5 mil each for a total of 3 mil
Step 2 Test association
The apple cup included teams who average 3.25 mil any other game (lol) and 4.7 mil for a gain of ~1.5 mil viewers
OU vs WVU avg 3.5 but got 5.7 mil viewers for a gain of 2.2 mil

Do you see where I'm going with this genius?... Using absurd numbers for the pac and realistic for NU vs Iowa (700k gain) the story is a little different. Using the real avg viewership for UW and WAZZU, lets just say it's 1.5 mil and 350k respectively, that would mean an extra 2.3 million fans tuned in for that game...I'm guessing a few of them are SEC fans. Lol, nice try
If only ESPN, ABC, or Fox cared about your cute little theory in their contract negotiations.
 
Let's put it this way, if for whatever reason the conferences are looking to eventually go to 24 teams, I think CU definitely has a spot. At 20/each, they do not.
Mostly agree with this, although I would say if they go to 24 each, CU almost assuredly has a spot. I don't think it's bulletproof.
 
They're raw attendance and % increase/% of stadium capacity numbers from 6 years ago, not back in 1990. You don't think fans would show up to Folsom in droves if CU won 10 games and played in the Pac 12 Championship Game in 2022?
So you are basing your "compelling argument" on CU having a unicorn season and people flocking to Folsom. I have been going to CU football games for 6 decades (or maybe 7) and had season tickets for several of those decades. At one time I told myself that people would move to metro Denver and would love CU football as much as I did and we would be unstoppable, reality has stepped up and kicked me in the a**. I am not sure in all that time that CU had an entire sold out season - maybe 88 and 89. The university does not love CU Football. So based on my real world experience, CU is never going to sell out year in and year out. And if you have to have a unicorn season to get fans in the seats you really don't have a great fan base. So no, there is no compelling argument that CU has a fervent fan base that makes it attractive to ESPN or FOX relative to other average programs.
 
So you are basing your "compelling argument" on CU having a unicorn season and people flocking to Folsom. I have been going to CU football games for 6 decades (or maybe 7) and had season tickets for several of those decades. At one time I told myself that people would move to metro Denver and would love CU football as much as I did and we would be unstoppable, reality has stepped up and kicked me in the a**. I am not sure in all that time that CU had an entire sold out season - maybe 88 and 89. The university does not love CU Football. So based on my real world experience, CU is never going to sell out year in and year out. And if you have to have a unicorn season to get fans in the seats you really don't have a great fan base. So no, there is no compelling argument that CU has a fervent fan base that makes it attractive to ESPN or FOX relative to other average programs.

old-man-smiling.gif
 
So you are basing your "compelling argument" on CU having a unicorn season and people flocking to Folsom. I have been going to CU football games for 6 decades (or maybe 7) and had season tickets for several of those decades. At one time I told myself that people would move to metro Denver and would love CU football as much as I did and we would be unstoppable, reality has stepped up and kicked me in the a**. I am not sure in all that time that CU had an entire sold out season - maybe 88 and 89. The university does not love CU Football. So based on my real world experience, CU is never going to sell out year in and year out. And if you have to have a unicorn season to get fans in the seats you really don't have a great fan base. So no, there is no compelling argument that CU has a fervent fan base that makes it attractive to ESPN or FOX relative to other average programs.
CU has never sold out their home slate for a full season. Not once. not even 1990 or 1991.
 
Mostly agree with this, although I would say if they go to 24 each, CU almost assuredly has a spot. I don't think it's bulletproof.
So playing it out to where UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA go to the SEC to put them at 20 and then UW, Oregon, Miami and ND go to B1G to put them at 20, who is left?

Pac 12 - CU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, ASU, Utah, OSU, WSU

Big 12 - Ok State, TCU, TTU, Baylor, BYU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, UCF, Houston, KU, KSU

ACC - Va Tech, Louisville, Wake Forrest, NC State, GT, Duke, BC, Syracuse, Pitt

Starting with the ones who are almost assuredly OUT... Oregon State, Wazzu, TTU, ISU, UCF, KSU, Wake, NC State, Cuse, BC, Houston

Ones I think are long shots due to market saturation/being in the same state with a power program that won't allow it... Cincy, Baylor, Pitt, GT, Louisville

So we are down to 13 programs for 8 spots... CU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, ASU, Utah, Ok State, TCU, BYU, WVU, KU, VT, Duke

Who gets the invite from that group and which 5 get left out? Does MBB play into the decision? Tell me which assumptions I have wrong here.
 
Klatt also says that he believes that college football will be better as a result of all of this.

I do not agree.
Klatt is good at what he does but all the Fox guys (like Brando) have been out there saying this is good for college football is much needed change that will lead to better things and its hard not to think they are just shilling for the company line. Brando was trying to act like the money won't matter because Cincinnati made the playoffs last year and ignoring the fact that its quite possible the P2 could just say "we're the playoff now".
 
So you are basing your "compelling argument" on CU having a unicorn season and people flocking to Folsom. I have been going to CU football games for 6 decades (or maybe 7) and had season tickets for several of those decades. At one time I told myself that people would move to metro Denver and would love CU football as much as I did and we would be unstoppable, reality has stepped up and kicked me in the a**. I am not sure in all that time that CU had an entire sold out season - maybe 88 and 89. The university does not love CU Football. So based on my real world experience, CU is never going to sell out year in and year out. And if you have to have a unicorn season to get fans in the seats you really don't have a great fan base. So no, there is no compelling argument that CU has a fervent fan base that makes it attractive to ESPN or FOX relative to other average programs.
CU had the highest attendance/ticket sales in terms of percentage of capacity in the Pac 12 last season and they've been consistently in the top third of the conference in most years. Fans showed up to a boring 4-8 product among multiple seasons in a row of 5-7. You choose to view 2016 as a unicorn season. Ok, that doesn't change the fact that fans showed up in droves to Folsom that year and the year after, pointing to the fact that this state will support a winning football program.

Colorado is a fairweather/bandwagon sports state outside of the Broncos. You know how many Avs fans were created here from winning the Cup? Look at the Nuggets support over the last few years relative to before Jokic and after Melo. It's a small sample size for CU because they have only had one good season in recent memory, but I'm not sure why you don't think it's a valid point.
 
So playing it out to where UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA go to the SEC to put them at 20 and then UW, Oregon, Miami and ND go to B1G to put them at 20, who is left?

Pac 12 - CU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, ASU, Utah, OSU, WSU

Big 12 - Ok State, TCU, TTU, Baylor, BYU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, UCF, Houston, KU, KSU

ACC - Va Tech, Louisville, Wake Forrest, NC State, GT, Duke, BC, Syracuse, Pitt

Starting with the ones who are almost assuredly OUT... Oregon State, Wazzu, TTU, ISU, UCF, KSU, Wake, NC State, Cuse, BC, Houston

Ones I think are long shots due to market saturation/being in the same state with a power program that won't allow it... Cincy, Baylor, Pitt, GT, Louisville

So we are down to 13 programs for 8 spots... CU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, ASU, Utah, Ok State, TCU, BYU, WVU, KU, VT, Duke

Who gets the invite from that group and which 5 get left out? Does MBB play into the decision? Tell me which assumptions I have wrong here.
i think assuming that both conferences go to 20 is questionable, but let's play it out.

I don't think NC State is assuredly out. 36k students, good support for football, growing area.

Until a week ago, I would've liked to get Syracuse and BC out of the ACC, but even though fan support in the NE is so lackluster, I'm not sure giving up on that region is the right call now, and I can't think of any other schools (not already in the B1G) that add more value in the NE.

this is the worst case scenario for VT
 
If only ESPN, ABC, or Fox cared about your cute little theory in their contract negotiations.
I'll get to them but you're missing the point, it's not a theory (in layman's terms). I proved it using the most basic of statistical measuring and the numbers you gave me yourself.

FOXSPN doesn't care about the apple cup because every other pac 12 game is crab grass. They see the games that do well and they're are all ooc games. What they fail to realize is all those miss state bama games that get 5 mil viewers... no one outside of those teams fan bases are watching unless it's an upset and the viewers are 75% bama fans. They think that getting USC vs tOSU will get rose bowl numbers ie each teams fan base plus every cfb fan. Yeah, good luck with that. USC fans are the biggest bandwagoners in cfb. Texas and bama getting cotton bowl numbers!? No, if I cared to watch bama curb stomp someone, their game against vandy is as good as any.

The corn CU game in 2019 had nearly 1.5 million more viewers than USC UCLA in 2019.
 
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So playing it out to where UNC, FSU, Clemson and UVA go to the SEC to put them at 20 and then UW, Oregon, Miami and ND go to B1G to put them at 20, who is left?

Pac 12 - CU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, ASU, Utah, OSU, WSU

Big 12 - Ok State, TCU, TTU, Baylor, BYU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, UCF, Houston, KU, KSU

ACC - Va Tech, Louisville, Wake Forrest, NC State, GT, Duke, BC, Syracuse, Pitt

Starting with the ones who are almost assuredly OUT... Oregon State, Wazzu, TTU, ISU, UCF, KSU, Wake, NC State, Cuse, BC, Houston

Ones I think are long shots due to market saturation/being in the same state with a power program that won't allow it... Cincy, Baylor, Pitt, GT, Louisville

So we are down to 13 programs for 8 spots... CU, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, ASU, Utah, Ok State, TCU, BYU, WVU, KU, VT, Duke

Who gets the invite from that group and which 5 get left out? Does MBB play into the decision? Tell me which assumptions I have wrong here.
TCU, WVU, Duke, Cal ..after that it gets tough... probably BYU
 
I don't get all of the talk of Oregon and Washington being the hottest commodities left in the Pac 12. I get Oregon and the sweet Nike money buying relevance of late through absurd facilities and "cool" uniforms, but that is all they have. It is a fairly mediocre school in a small town that is a haul from Portland. As for UW, I live in Seattle. There are a lot of UW alumni in the area, but there are also a ton of alumni from WSU and out of state schools, so UW does not have the city locked down by any stretch and they don't sell out many games. I am not sure what their local TV ratings are but they can't be that high. The city is all about the Seahawks and pro sports teams. It is not much different than Denver to be honest. Also, UW really has had some horrible teams in the last 20 years. I wouldn't discount CU too much when stacked up against either school if you look at history and the big picture.
 
I don't get all of the talk of Oregon and Washington being the hottest commodities left in the Pac 12. I get Oregon and the sweet Nike money buying relevance of late through absurd facilities and "cool" uniforms, but that is all they have. It is a fairly mediocre school in a small town that is a haul from Portland. As for UW, I live in Seattle. There are a lot of UW alumni in the area, but there are also a ton of alumni from WSU and out of state schools, so UW does not have the city locked down by any stretch and they don't sell out many games. I am not sure what their local TV ratings are but they can't be that high. The city is all about the Seahawks and pro sports teams. It is not much different than Denver to be honest. Also, UW really has had some horrible teams in the last 20 years. I wouldn't discount CU too much when stacked up against either school if you look at history and the big picture.
Catch up on the thread. This is a good break down…
SIAP, but worth watching:
 
CU had the highest attendance/ticket sales in terms of percentage of capacity in the Pac 12 last season and they've been consistently in the top third of the conference in most years. Fans showed up to a boring 4-8 product among multiple seasons in a row of 5-7. You choose to view 2016 as a unicorn season. Ok, that doesn't change the fact that fans showed up in droves to Folsom that year and the year after, pointing to the fact that this state will support a winning football program.

Colorado is a fairweather/bandwagon sports state outside of the Broncos. You know how many Avs fans were created here from winning the Cup? Look at the Nuggets support over the last few years relative to before Jokic and after Melo. It's a small sample size for CU because they have only had one good season in recent memory, but I'm not sure why you don't think it's a valid point.

I have to say you have no shame in making stuff up to support some of your weird takes. CU did NOT have the highest attendance in terms of stadium capacity - we were 5th and barely ahead of ASU. Utah, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State all were ahead of us in percentage of capacity. As total attendance we were 6th in the league. We have not been in the top 3rd most years. For the 5 years from 2015 through 2019 (pre-covid numbers) CU averaged 5th (and that included your great years) as % of capacity.

Here is another little tidbit - CU counts tickets sold/distributed for attendance and not through the turnstills. At the Washington game last year CUs student section was not a third full and although the crowd was announce as 44,000 I doubt there was 35,000
 
So anyway…

George K. hired a CT-based sports agency to negotiate media rights. Most of the team has ACC ties.


And perhaps ESPN ties.

I don’t care which conference CU is in as long as they are on the ESPN family of channels including ESPN+. Not having the P12N’s distribution issues anymore would be cause for celebration across the current P12.
 
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