CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[hokiehead]

But how will we know which fans are BYU fans, and which ones are Utah fans pretending to be BYU fans? And what about the BYU fans that are pretending to be Utah fans pretending to be BYU fans?

does it matter?

 

[hokiehead]

 

[SewallBeach]

I saw something from him, but have to have ESPN + to read the meat of the article. Unless others object, you should post it here

Only in times of chaos in college sports does the wonky jargon grant of rights intersect with mainstream conversation. Perhaps no factor looms larger for the future of the entire enterprise of college athletics than the consequences that come with signing -- or the potential need to sign -- a grant of rights.

A grant of rights is a legal term that comes up in the college landscape almost exclusively during times of conference realignment. The definition of the term itself is a fitting duality -- both simple and complicated -- considering how differently the grants are being viewed amid the latest starburst of realignment in 2022.

By extending their grant of rights in 2016, ACC schools did what the legal phrase says: They granted the rights to all their home games to the ACC until the league's television contract with ESPN expires in 2036. After granting them, schools are finding complications in the legal quagmire of the exploration of getting them back.

There has already been an extreme amount of analysis by multiple schools' general counsels examining the legal strength of the document, though one source familiar with one of those studies said there "doesn't appear to be much wiggle room" for schools eager to depart.

In the ACC, the grant of rights looms largest because of the 14 seasons that remain on the contract. The per-team estimated payouts project to hundreds of millions less over that span than teams in the Big Ten and SEC. The ACC should be about $40 million per team in upcoming years. The Big Ten and SEC should be north of $70 million in the early years of their upcoming deals, as the Big Ten is difficult to predict until it gets signed in the coming weeks. How big that gap grows -- and there's always variance with league success -- will only amplify the angst in the ACC.

Any conversation about future ACC members, departing ACC members or unhappy ACC members all links back to the length and strength of that grant of rights.

For the ACC, the grant of rights serves as the ultimate paradox -- the glue holding the ACC together but also a wedge threatening to divide the league. The grant of rights serves to protect or suffocate, depending on whether your chair is at Syracuse or Clemson. It is the golden handcuffs that represent either long-term financial security or financial inequity.

The grant of rights was designed to bond the schools through equal revenue share for two decades and to end realignment speculation. But with the top brands Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Miami and Virginia all worried about the financial gap for the next 14 years, there are schools at the top feeling trapped. (Or those who've been at the top in the past and expect to return.)

The grant of rights is being hailed by ACC officials behind the scenes as an ironclad bond of commitment. But there's also a bottom-line reality that counters that: It would be naive to think that no school will challenge it within the next 14 years if the financials in the league don't change. While there's no known legal precedent in college sports for going to court to break a grant of rights, the only variable seemingly is time before someone in the ACC begins a risky game of financial roulette that comes after an exit fee that is projected to be nearly $120 million per school.

It's one math problem or another. Can you afford to stay in the ACC and fall behind? Or would the cost be more significant by trying to fight your way out?

It's not just the ACC's future that revolves around the grant of rights. The safest predictor of what happens next in realignment is that grants of rights will loom as a large factor in the deal. (Or, perhaps, allowing schools to not sign one could be a negotiating play).

Here's a peek at what's next in realignment and how grants of rights can factor in.

What happens out West?​

In the Pac-12, the expiration of the grant of rights running congruent with the current television deal in two years gave USC and UCLA the freedom to jump to the Big Ten.

And that hasn't gone unnoticed by Oregon and Washington, which both strongly desire a new address amid the financial excess of the Big Ten. With the TV deal expiring soon, the Ducks and Huskies are going to have to commit somewhere in the near future. And that's where a grant of rights will loom over the future of television football in the West outside of Los Angeles.

Both schools certainly would be hesitant to sign up for a lengthy grant of rights in the current league or elsewhere, as there's no chance the money would come close to what they hope to get in the Big Ten. For those schools, the grant of rights could be a tether, leverage point or perhaps even a negotiating tactic.

Executives around the realignment campfire are all saying that we're in a period of calm after the jarring move of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten. That's correct until it isn't. And the unknown variable is time, which could mean weeks, months or years.

It's important to remember that USC wasn't eager to have Oregon in the league, hence no invitation in Round 1. Considering that USC and UCLA are both expected to deliver only slightly more than a full share to the Big Ten, it's reasonable to project that the Pacific Northwest schools would cost the Big Ten money to add. Not a lot of moves in the history of college sports have been done to lose money.

This is where the financial gap to the "Power 2" of the Big Ten and SEC has gotten so big that even a small chance to join one of those leagues needs to be kept open. So how does that get addressed in negotiations? That's where things will get interesting, as it's hard to imagine the Big Ten wanting Oregon and Washington imminently but seemingly just as difficult to project a pair of 20-team Power 2 leagues without them.

Who pushes the button?​

In realignment, the only constant is change, which makes it hard to imagine that both the Big Ten and SEC won't jump from 16 to 20 teams in the next five years. So what's the impetus for the next move?

It's quite plausible that both the SEC and Big Ten are set at 16 teams for now. It's equally plausible that they're only likely to move if they anticipate the other league moving. So they watch -- "Spy vs. Spy" -- with binoculars from Birmingham, Alabama, to suburban Chicago. It's a cold war with little trust between either side and two competitive television networks as the primary revenue sources behind the leagues.

The SEC might not be eager to add a school like Clemson, Miami or Florida State because the league already has a presence in those states. There's also the legal thicket of the grant of rights. But the SEC also likely wouldn't be eager for one of those schools to go to the Big Ten. Hence, the binoculars are perched.

The most likely course of action for the ACC -- see below -- is selective expansion. If the ACC wanted to add a Western wing and required a grant of rights from Oregon and Washington, would that change the Big Ten's mind? Again, it's hard to imagine those two schools not in someone's long-term plan.

What if the Pac-12 stayed together and signed a 10-year deal with a grant of rights? Would the Big Ten feel good about not adding those properties for a decade? It's clear Oregon and Washington want to get across the moat to a Power 2 league, and the SEC doesn't feel like it would mean more in Eugene or Seattle. So how good would the offer need to be from the Pac-12 or ACC to take Oregon and Washington off the table for an extended period? The Pac-12 would likely have to offer them unequal revenue share, which has been a proven conference killer in past decades, with the Big 12's bickering as the prime example.

One of the few things uniting the Power 2 leagues right now is that neither wants anything to do with the legal untangling that would come with breaking a grant of rights. The unofficial posture of both leagues, if they ever were to take an ACC school in the near future, would be -- well, you figure all that out. Then come approach us.

What will the ACC do next?​

Conference officials are waiting on a bevy of numbers from consultants. There's the scheduling arrangement with the Pac-12, which has virtually no chance to have the financial clout to get traction.

The next logical move would be selective expansion, which combined with some type of creative revenue sharing could help the schools that are most anxious about the revenue gap with the Big Ten and SEC. The timing of how the ACC addresses that and the size of the gap are likely going to determine the league's future. (Is it enough that the potential of joining another league without the rights to home games -- depending on legal gymnastics -- would seem off-putting?)

The Pac-12 schools in prime markets are the obvious ACC target, as it's unlikely any TV entity is going to come in and bid high on the league now that they are vulnerable and lack the Los Angeles market. (Adding San Diego State and Boise State, which both seem like obvious choices, still doesn't move the financial needle.)

Whatever financial estimates the Pac-12 schools get amid their current open negotiating window will inevitably underwhelm. Does that allow the ACC to make a targeted strike to take the best available from the Pac-12 -- Oregon, Washington, Stanford and California -- and then take either two or four others? Those could be either two or all of these -- Arizona State, Colorado, TCU, Cincinnati -- to form a Western wing of the league.

The question would loom large whether this wing would want a 14-year commitment, similar to the current schools.

If the Pac-12 schools are tempted, it would seemingly bring a bigger annual payout to the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest schools while trimming the fat that USC and UCLA wanted to escape. If those programs could come pro rata with the ACC, perhaps the extra ACC Network money from adding a flurry of big markets could create a pool of revenue that is distributed to the league's top performers. More revenue that's distributed unequally is the key for the ACC making sure the grant of rights doesn't drive the league apart.

Unequal revenue has been an ongoing ACC discussion, and amid these tense times of grant of rights examination, common sense would dictate the opportunity for more revenue for the winning teams.


North Carolina's run to the men's basketball national title game last year will earn the ACC $8 million in NCAA units over the next few years. What if half of that went to the Tar Heels instead of being divided evenly? What about the $6 million per year from Clemson's six straight College Football Playoff appearances? Do the Tigers still get an equal share with Duke?

Very early discussions are underway at the ACC about how that could look.

"I think it has to be part of an earned model, but some of it is going to be based on history and market," one ACC source said. "You have to be pretty creative how you come up with the model."

With the grant of rights weaving through every conversation, creativity and billable hours appear to be necessities in the near term.

 

[leftybuff]

The picture seems pretty clear, the P12-2 is not going to be a viable conference on par with the B1G and the SEC.

The ACC and B12 may retain enough appeal to be in the auto bid CFP pool.

UW and Oregon are the most valuable P12-2 properties left. They are chomping at the bit to jump to the B1G or the SEC. The remaining Pac members should not expect any loyalty.

I cannot see the ACC being of any help.

So, the four corner schools have a choice. Hold the P12-2 together with bailing wire, and hope Oregon and UW do not give them the shaft, realizing they will be cemented as the fifth best power 5 conference, and possibly demoted to the virtual G5 status with TV money reflecting that status.

OR, jump to the B12 now, get the best deal possible, beating UW and Oregon to the punch.

My vote? Hello, B12, how ya been?

 

[Highlander]

This whole thing, when you consider CU's apathy towards athletics included, is just ****ing miserable.

 

[DBT]

The picture seems pretty clear, the P12-2 is not going to be a viable conference on par with the B1G and the SEC.

The ACC and B12 may retain enough appeal to be in the auto bid CFP pool.

UW and Oregon are the most valuable P12-2 properties left. They are chomping at the bit to jump to the B1G or the SEC. The remaining Pac members should not expect any loyalty.

I cannot see the ACC being of any help.

So, the four corner schools have a choice. Hold the P12-2 together with bailing wire, and hope Oregon and UW do not give them the shaft, realizing they will be cemented as the fifth best power 5 conference, and possibly demoted to the virtual G5 status with TV money reflecting that status.

OR, jump to the B12 now, get the best deal possible, beating UW and Oregon to the punch.

My vote? Hello, B12, how ya been?

But, but RG tells us that the remaining ten teams are unified and loyal!! There is absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

[Denver_sc]

Holy ****. The ACC situation is brutal. Whatever CU does, I can't imagine the best thing involves granting rights for the next 14-20 years. The lack of flexibility is going to be very bad for those ACC programs.

 

[Buffnik]

But, but RG tells us that the remaining ten teams are unified and loyal!! There is absolutely nothing to worry about.

Loyal and committed like a spouse who is running D&Bs on other suitors to see if it would be worth it to divorce you, pay out a settlement to you, and re-marry.

 

[Buffnik]

Holy ****. The ACC situation is brutal. Whatever CU does, I can't imagine the best thing involves granting rights for the next 14-20 years. The lack of flexibility is going to be very bad for those ACC programs.

Which is why for even the ACC schools that got left out of the SEC & B1G it may be a better financial deal to ditch the current ACC and create a national 3rd conference with the most valuable B12 & P10 leftovers instead of sticking together.

 

[Goose]

does it matter?

This sounds exactly like what I would expect someone that’s a BYU fan pretending to be a Utah fan pretending to be a Wisconsin fan pretending to be a Virginia Tech fan pretending to be a Colorado fan pretending to be a BYU fan would say…

anything you want to declare?

 

[ahoelsken]

Which is why for even the ACC schools that got left out of the SEC & B1G it may be a better financial deal to ditch the current ACC and create a national 3rd conference with the most valuable B12 & P10 leftovers instead of sticking together.

Can a school like.....Wake Forest (hypothetically) afford to do even that?

 

[Liver]

The comments from b12 fans in that Dodd tweet are precious. They think they have total control of the situation even tho If they did manage to land uo uw and asu and us we would immediately become 4 of their top 6-8 brands and markets.

they are as delusional as we are. College football is in a very ****ing curious place right now.

 

[MtnBuff]

The comments from b12 fans in that Dodd tweet are precious. They think they have total control of the situation even tho If they did manage to land uo uw and asu and us we would immediately become 4 of their top 6-8 brands and markets.

they are as delusional as we are. College football is in a very ****ing curious place right now.

Having a hard time seeing Oregon and Washington joining the B12 without either an easy out to go to one of the big 2 conferences or an unequal distribution of conference proceeds, or both.

None of us knows but I still think the eventual fall out is a dissolution of the three remaining conferences with the top revenue programs from each joining into a new attempt at a superconference.

 

[RickGeorgeIsAnIdiot]

SD has no good beer.

Best beer city in the US…not close

 

[Denver_sc]

The comments from b12 fans in that Dodd tweet are precious. They think they have total control of the situation even tho If they did manage to land uo uw and asu and us we would immediately become 4 of their top 6-8 brands and markets.

they are as delusional as we are. College football is in a very ****ing curious place right now.

Check out this study from a consulting firm I posted earlier in the thread. Particularly this part:


They estimate that WVU has the biggest fanbase out of the entire new B12- they would be 4th in a combined conference.

Also, their schools with the 4 biggest markets (TCU, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati) all have smaller estimated fanbases than Iowa ****ing State (and us, for that matter).

 

[BuffBronco]

 

[PAHIBuff]

But how will we know which fans are BYU fans, and which ones are Utah fans pretending to be BYU fans? And what about the BYU fans that are pretending to be Utah fans pretending to be BYU fans?

Here you go:

A Young Utah Utes Fan Really Hates BYU (Video)

This little Utah Utes fan really doesn't like the BYU Cougars. As you can see in this video, he starts bawling and crying when his dad plays a trick on him

athlonsports.com

 

[Buffnik]

Can a school like.....Wake Forest (hypothetically) afford to do even that?

More like a school like NC State not being able to find a home despite being the largest university in the state. Or Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Louisville and probably one of its FL programs since the B1G won't accept a non-AAU other than Notre Dame.

 

[241Volcanos]

Buffs on deck.

 

[Buffnik]

B1G is thinking, "Well, damn. We may have to take USC's other rival in Stanford and own another huge media market while making the conference even more attractive to Notre Dame."

 

[241Volcanos]

B1G is thinking, "Well, damn. We may have to take USC's other rival in Stanford and own another huge media market while making the conference even more attractive to Notre Dame."

That’d be a good trade for Pac.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If UCLA can’t go, gotta think it’s Stanford who gets the next invite. Or maybe the B1G bites the bullet to get the whole LA market and also decides to take Cal and Stanford.

 

[Rob DeVere]

If UCLA can’t go, gotta think it’s Stanford who gets the next invite. Or maybe the B1G bites the bullet to get the whole LA market and also decides to take Cal and Stanford.

IF the state of California can block the University of California, Los Angeles, why would they let the University of California, Berkeley, go???

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

IF the state of California can block the University of California, Los Angeles, why would they let the University of California, Berkeley, go???

I’m saying one possibility is that it’s an all or nothing proposition. The state would surely allow both to go

 

[hokiehead]

This sounds exactly like what I would expect someone that’s a BYU fan pretending to be a Utah fan pretending to be a Wisconsin fan pretending to be a Virginia Tech fan pretending to be a Colorado fan pretending to be a BYU fan would say…

anything you want to declare?

A degree of surprise that you apparently read my posts

 

[Buffs35]

Sources: Big 12, Pac-12 won't partner, talks end

Officials from the Big 12 told Pac-12 officials on Monday that they're no longer interested in exploring a partnership, sources said.

www.espn.com

 

[Buffs35]

That made me curious about Dodd so I went to his twitter account (I'm not blocked lol) and saw this posted just recently. Doesn't make much sense to me that NBC would go from paying ND $15 million per year to $75 million just because they also decided to televise Big 12 games

That's not bad money for a team that hasn't won in almost 35 years, and schedules navy, marshall and unlv.

 

[PAC MAN]

Sources: Big 12, Pac-12 won't partner, talks end

Officials from the Big 12 told Pac-12 officials on Monday that they're no longer interested in exploring a partnership, sources said.

www.espn.com

Next step is one raids the other. Just drove through Kansas recently and it isn’t hard to hit 80-85 on I-70.

I’m not sure it’s worth waiting on ESPN to show the PAC how much it will pay for the conference to stay together.

 

[Liver]

Fantastical thinking time— ucla gets blocked, uo gets blocked from leaving state as does uw. There sits the sleeping giant Buffs in the mountain time zone, the new usc travel partner. naw…. I can’t get there even in fantasy thinking mode.

figure uo will find a way to get the replacement bid. Or worse case, stanford i suppose. I would take a league with ucla and without Oregon and usc from a competitive standpoint. We might actually be able win again someday. I can’t say i am super sad or surprised that the big 12 and pac aren’t doing a full merger. each side thinks the other is weaker than it is and that it is itself stronger than it is. When your headliners are West Virginia and okie state, you don’t exactly have a **** ton of room to crow about conference strength.

maybe we should go the other way and pull ku and iowa state to get back to pac 12. Pull in the Midwest. lol. The whole thing is such nonsense no matter what happens.

 

[Not Sure]

I wouldn’t put any credence into any story claiming to know what the B12 will or won’t do. The B12 has no idea what it wants to be or what it wants to do. It also has a lot of media members who like to write absurdities and hope they stick.