105th? Wow

[CitizenKane]

Not all of us. The Buffs have won more than 5 games once in the last decade. I don't know why anyone is shocked that, from a national perspective, the Buffs are predicted to finish like they have 9 out of the last 10 years.

The national media and the big gambling houses were all slow on the demise of the Buffs and they will continue to be slow on the return. It took three years after the Buffs really had no business being near the top 25 before people stopped putting the Buffs in there.....Win again this year and things will change.

That being said, I am going to have to find a place that will let me put 1k on the over.

 

[Buffs35]

The national media and the big gambling houses were all slow on the demise of the Buffs and they will continue to be slow on the return. It took three years after the Buffs really had no business being near the top 25 before people stopped putting the Buffs in there.....Win again this year and things will change.

That being said, I am going to have to find a place that will let me put 1k on the over.

It should also be pointed out that the books aren't trying to be accurate, necessarily, they are trying to get bets placed 50% on each side.

 

[manhattanbuff]

It should also be pointed out that the books aren't trying to be accurate, necessarily, they are trying to get bets placed 50% on each side.

This is an old school slant on bookmaking. Books today will regularly shade the wrong side in order to get bigger action there. Line movements these days are generally when a sharp bettor (or several) has a huge bet on the right side of a line.

 

[goalline]

SIAP
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/spor...ge-football-rankings-colorado-0514-story.html

WTF

The only team on CU's schedule that is listed below us is OSU. That means they are loosely predicting a 2-10 season (assuming New Hampshire won't be listed). CSU, and Cal must be ranked higher (wtf?) and others that are arguably similar (ASU?) are probably going to be ranked far higher.

 

[Highlander]

This is an old school slant on bookmaking. Books today will regularly shade the wrong side in order to get bigger action there. Line movements these days are generally when a sharp bettor (or several) has a huge bet on the right side of a line.

Isn't that saying the same thing in different words?

 

[manhattanbuff]

Isn't that saying the same thing in different words?

No. Today, books will bet against the wrong side by offering a favorable line for the side they think will lose. The only time they make a line move is because they get a bet that can seriously hurt them that’s on their side. They’ll adjust to hedge against potential major losses stemming from a poor line but will still take a position on the game.

The old school sportsbook philosophy is based in the concept that books are agnostic about game outcomes since they make the vig. Today, books are more aggressive in that they’re predicting outcomes and generating lines to bet against the side they perceive as wrong.

 

[Highlander]

No. Today, books will bet against the wrong side by offering a favorable line for the side they think will lose. The only time they make a line move is because they get a bet that can seriously hurt them that’s on their side. They’ll adjust to hedge against potential major losses stemming from a poor line but will still take a position on the game.

The old school sportsbook philosophy is based in the concept that books are agnostic about game outcomes since they make the vig. Today, books are more aggressive in that they’re predicting outcomes and generating lines to bet against the side they perceive as wrong.

So, they are trying to generate roughly equal amount of money for both sides, but more for what they perceive as the wrong side. I don't see this as being that much different, but I am not a better, so this is far outside my area of knowledge. I will defer to your opinion.

 

[manhattanbuff]

So, they are trying to generate roughly equal amount of money for both sides, but more for what they perceive as the wrong side. I don't see this as being that much different, but I am not a better, so this is far outside my area of knowledge. I will defer to your opinion.

I may be unclear.

Before: books wanted 50/50 action because they were agnostic about outcomes.

Now: books want as much money on the wrong side as they can get. 70/30 if they can get it. They only adjust because their line is flawed and want to hedge against a sharp bet on their side.

 

[Highlander]

I may be unclear.

Before: books wanted 50/50 action because they were agnostic about outcomes.

Now: books want as much money on the wrong side as they can get. 70/30 if they can get it. They only adjust because their line is flawed and want to hedge against a sharp bet on their side.

Pricks. All of them!

 

[ahoelsken]

I don't think it has to be linear. And I think we all know that 2016 was more of a unicorn than it was a season that set a new norm. I'm confident, for instance, that we have a better coaching staff across the 10 guys and a better 85 man roster in 2018 than we did in 2016. I don't expect that means we're on the edge of the Playoff conversation into December this year, though.

Better coaching staff? I expect better from Eliot and the d this year, but I'm not expecting this defense to be schemed as well as that one was. Leavitt is a top 10 defensive coordinator in the country.

 

[hawg1]

I may be unclear.

Before: books wanted 50/50 action because they were agnostic about outcomes.

Now: books want as much money on the wrong side as they can get. 70/30 if they can get it. They only adjust because their line is flawed and want to hedge against a sharp bet on their side.

Yes, you are correct.

With sports gambling legalized in states, you are going to see more and more lopsided lines. Books in my opinion are going to do very well as local joes blindly bet on the “home” team. Houses are licking their chops.

On a 60/40 or 70/30 line, the problem exists when whales come in, move the line with big bets, then bet again after the kind moves the other way and possibly win twice. Algorithms will pick it up, but pros are crafty at hiding a spread bet.

 

[Buffnik]

Better coaching staff? I expect better from Eliot and the d this year, but I'm not expecting this defense to be schemed as well as that one was. Leavitt is a top 10 defensive coordinator in the country.

Well, if you believe that the presence of JL elevates things so much that it eliminates the top to bottom considerations of Roper vs Lindgren, Ambrose as an additional coach, etc. then ok. I think highly of JL, but not that highly.

 

[ahoelsken]

Well, if you believe that the presence of JL elevates things so much that it eliminates the top to bottom considerations of Roper vs Lindgren, Ambrose as an additional coach, etc. then ok. I think highly of JL, but not that highly.

I'll grant you the other two, but this defense couldn't stop anyone-in particular in conference play, and it prevented a return trip to a bowl on its own (I think we all remember DeMario Richard and Kalen Ballage running roughshod during the second half of the ASU game last year_. We can have a debate about the temperature of the seat that MM sits on, but Eliot is really on the hot seat going into this year, and this defense needs to improve in a BIG way this season. .

 

[Buffnik]

I'll grant you the other two, but this defense couldn't stop anyone-in particular in conference play, and it prevented a return trip to a bowl on its own (I think we all remember DeMario Richard and Kalen Ballage running roughshod during the second half of the ASU game last year_. We can have a debate about the temperature of the seat that MM sits on, but Eliot is really on the hot seat going into this year, and this defense needs to improve in a BIG way this season. .

Well, I also like Drake more than Jeffcoat and Els more than Tumpkin. I'd call Brown and Clark a wash. For me, I'll agree that JL is significantly above Eliot but I don't think it's so much so to offset the rest. Particularly when I'd assume that coaches from 2 years ago who are still here have almost certainly gotten a little better at their craft over that time.

 

[hawg1]

I'll grant you the other two, but this defense couldn't stop anyone-in particular in conference play, and it prevented a return trip to a bowl on its own (I think we all remember DeMario Richard and Kalen Ballage running roughshod during the second half of the ASU game last year_. We can have a debate about the temperature of the seat that MM sits on, but Eliot is really on the hot seat going into this year, and this defense needs to improve in a BIG way this season. .

MM loyalty factor will be at play with Els, IMO

 

[4BienemyTDs]

I agree that we have to discount the Bookmaking aspect of these predictions as they are trying to run that part of the equation accordingly in order to help the sports books make money, so while it pisses me off, the predictions need to be proved wrong. I think that someone who bets the Buffs this year will win pretty big, since I think you would be on the right side of the equation at least 70% of the time based on the early spreads and predictions.

As for the bigger picture, MM has to prove he is more than a program builder and needs to become a winner. Has not proved that to me yet.

CU Football, despite the culture being down and now back up, has a lot of alumni, and is in one of the fastest growing areas of the entire country. I have always looked at the success of the Buffs through historic eyes. Only 3-4 other PAC-12 Programs (USC, Stanford, Washington, UCLA) have ever had major football success at the level of CU, and many others are just not in a position to succeed based on the location and type of program. I expect and will always expect 8 win average and it is completely manageable if the right coach is here. If we had seasons that went 7 wins, 9 wins, 8 wins, 10 wins, I would be so damn happy!!! Get it done Mac, or get the heck out of here.

 

[ColoSpringsBuff]

The national media and the big gambling houses were all slow on the demise of the Buffs and they will continue to be slow on the return. It took three years after the Buffs really had no business being near the top 25 before people stopped putting the Buffs in there.....Win again this year and things will change.

That being said, I am going to have to find a place that will let me put 1k on the over.

FWIW, ESPN's FPI has us at 4.2 wins on the season. That said, I'm with you in betting the over.

 

[onealcd]

MM loyalty factor will be at play with Els, IMO

Els has done a good job, improved special teams play, in on a lot of recruits from last class and really good with the young players on the roster last year. Other than him not being good as a d coordinator in his two previous attempts, there isn’t really anything to complain about with him.

 

[BlackNGold]

A ranking of 105th seems harsh to me. More interested in were we rank in the conference. There are 3 new coaches in our division, which always makes it hard to predict how those teams will do, UCLA has talent and I think Kelly will do a good job of whipping them into shape but can he do it in one season is doubtful. ASU will be really interesting to watch with the Herm Edwards experiment. No real opinion on Sumlin. The important thing for the Buffs is to improve in several areas - the dline was the biggest liability, IMO, last season. The Oline was not much better. Mostly the team has to be better prepared for games (biggest complaint on coaching was the team did not seem well prepared at times nor were adjustments made in game).

I see CU as in the middle of the PAC 12. Many of the games will be toss ups and CU has to find a way to win those. Five conference home games help.

 

[DBT]

The Drive for 105 has succeeded!

 

[manhattanbuff]

A ranking of 105th seems harsh to me. More interested in were we rank in the conference. There are 3 new coaches in our division, which always makes it hard to predict how those teams will do, UCLA has talent and I think Kelly will do a good job of whipping them into shape but can he do it in one season is doubtful. ASU will be really interesting to watch with the Herm Edwards experiment. No real opinion on Sumlin. The important thing for the Buffs is to improve in several areas - the dline was the biggest liability, IMO, last season. The Oline was not much better. Mostly the team has to be better prepared for games (biggest complaint on coaching was the team did not seem well prepared at times nor were adjustments made in game).

I see CU as in the middle of the PAC 12. Many of the games will be toss ups and CU has to find a way to win those. Five conference home games help.

Middle of the pack?

Current coach is 12-33 in conference with 8 of those 12 wins in a single season. Aside from the 8 win conference season, he averages one conference win a season.

We are not in the middle of anything.

 

[BlackNGold]

Middle of the pack?

Current coach is 12-33 in conference with 8 of those 12 wins in a single season. Aside from the 8 win conference season, he averages one conference win a season.

We are not in the middle of anything.

My discussion was in regards to the 2018 season and the state of the PAC 12. I don't see ASU, UA, Cal, WSU as being significantly better or worse than the Buffs. I see Washington and USC at the top with Utah, Stanford and Oregon behind that. No idea about UCLA this season, talented but a major change in culture which usually takes a few years to work out. That leaves OSU bringing up the rear.

 

[JOEinDenver]

Once again, the past does not predict the future. I am standing strong in my belief that this team has turned the corner after this season (barring injuries of course). I am very confident that with the 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes will shore up the 2017 and 2018 classes and propel them into a national champion contender position. Simply meaning I believe they can win the Pac-12 at that point. Like this post if you are rooting with me and creating a positive vibe for the team. Or ignore it if you are one of the naysayers.

 

[CitizenKane]

My discussion was in regards to the 2018 season and the state of the PAC 12. I don't see ASU, UA, Cal, WSU as being significantly better or worse than the Buffs. I see Washington and USC at the top with Utah, Stanford and Oregon behind that. No idea about UCLA this season, talented but a major change in culture which usually takes a few years to work out. That leaves OSU bringing up the rear.

Team	Off. Ret	Def. Ret	Notes	Predicted Record	Bowl
Wash.	8	9	If they don't win the conference something has gone horribly wrong.	11W 1 L	Yes, will play in the final four
Ore.	7	7	VERY EASY SCHEDULE. Top 20 offense and defense this year.	10W 2L	Yes
Stan.	8	6	Lost a lot from a good D, expect regression. Offense should be better this year, but not enough to make up for the D.	7W 5L	Yes
CAL	10	8	Cal defense was so bad, but expect this team to improve even if the record doesn't reflect it	3W 9L	No
Ore. State.	7	8	Lots of bad returning starters but they get some non con wins.	4W 8L	No
Wash. State	4	6	Defense was bad and will remain so, offense lost all their best players.	3W 9L	No
UCLA	5	7	Coach Kelly has an immediate impact. After a slow start, UCLA will beat USC which punches their ticket to the PAC 12 title game where they are destroyed.	8W 5L	5th loss in PAC 12 title game. Yes bowl
Utah	9	6	Utah is going to struggle more than most think. Their QB is average at best and their defense is now a liability.	7W 5L	Yes
Buffs	5	7	Colorado will surprise a team or two this year, but we won't see a team that is re-risen.	7W 5L	Yes
USC	7	7	Good returning numbers, but no Darnold will impact them. Expect them to lose at least two games they shouldn't and all of the loses they should	7W 5L	Yes
Zona	7	9	Defense was so awful and even though many return, I don't expect it to be better. Offense killed CU but people have started to figure out their young superstar.	7W 5L	Yes
ASU	8	5	Their defense was bad and is getting worse, their offense will be solid	3W 9L	No

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Team	Off. Ret	Def. Ret	Notes	Predicted Record	Bowl
Wash.	8	9	If they don't win the conference something has gone horribly wrong.	11W 1 L	Yes, will play in the final four
Ore.	7	7	VERY EASY SCHEDULE. Top 20 offense and defense this year.	10W 2L	Yes
Stan.	8	6	Lost a lot from a good D, expect regression. Offense should be better this year, but not enough to make up for the D.	7W 5L	Yes
CAL	10	8	Cal defense was so bad, but expect this team to improve even if the record doesn't reflect it	3W 9L	No
Ore. State.	7	8	Lots of bad returning starters but they get some non con wins.	4W 8L	No
Wash. State	4	6	Defense was bad and will remain so, offense lost all their best players.	3W 9L	No
UCLA	5	7	Coach Kelly has an immediate impact. After a slow start, UCLA will beat USC which punches their ticket to the PAC 12 title game where they are destroyed.	8W 5L	5th loss in PAC 12 title game. Yes bowl
Utah	9	6	Utah is going to struggle more than most think. Their QB is average at best and their defense is now a liability.	7W 5L	Yes
Buffs	5	7	Colorado will surprise a team or two this year, but we won't see a team that is re-risen.	7W 5L	Yes
USC	7	7	Good returning numbers, but no Darnold will impact them. Expect them to lose at least two games they shouldn't and all of the loses they should	7W 5L	Yes
Zona	7	9	Defense was so awful and even though many return, I don't expect it to be better. Offense killed CU but people have started to figure out their young superstar.	7W 5L	Yes
ASU	8	5	Their defense was bad and is getting worse, their offense will be solid	3W 9L	No

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Which publication are those predictions from? They believe the Pac 12 South is basically going to be awful. If a 7-5 record wins the division, I'll be shocked.

 

[Bufffan68]

No. Today, books will bet against the wrong side by offering a favorable line for the side they think will lose. The only time they make a line move is because they get a bet that can seriously hurt them that’s on their side. They’ll adjust to hedge against potential major losses stemming from a poor line but will still take a position on the game.

The old school sportsbook philosophy is based in the concept that books are agnostic about game outcomes since they make the vig. Today, books are more aggressive in that they’re predicting outcomes and generating lines to bet against the side they perceive as wrong.

Is there volume substantial enough to move a line?

 

[JOEinDenver]

Team	Off. Ret	Def. Ret	Notes	Predicted Record	Bowl
Wash.	8	9	If they don't win the conference something has gone horribly wrong.	11W 1 L	Yes, will play in the final four
Ore.	7	7	VERY EASY SCHEDULE. Top 20 offense and defense this year.	10W 2L	Yes
Stan.	8	6	Lost a lot from a good D, expect regression. Offense should be better this year, but not enough to make up for the D.	7W 5L	Yes
CAL	10	8	Cal defense was so bad, but expect this team to improve even if the record doesn't reflect it	3W 9L	No
Ore. State.	7	8	Lots of bad returning starters but they get some non con wins.	4W 8L	No
Wash. State	4	6	Defense was bad and will remain so, offense lost all their best players.	3W 9L	No
UCLA	5	7	Coach Kelly has an immediate impact. After a slow start, UCLA will beat USC which punches their ticket to the PAC 12 title game where they are destroyed.	8W 5L	5th loss in PAC 12 title game. Yes bowl
Utah	9	6	Utah is going to struggle more than most think. Their QB is average at best and their defense is now a liability.	7W 5L	Yes
Buffs	5	7	Colorado will surprise a team or two this year, but we won't see a team that is re-risen.	7W 5L	Yes
USC	7	7	Good returning numbers, but no Darnold will impact them. Expect them to lose at least two games they shouldn't and all of the loses they should	7W 5L	Yes
Zona	7	9	Defense was so awful and even though many return, I don't expect it to be better. Offense killed CU but people have started to figure out their young superstar.	7W 5L	Yes
ASU	8	5	Their defense was bad and is getting worse, their offense will be solid	3W 9L	No

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So everyone has a shot to win the South except Arizona State. Interesting.

 

[CitizenKane]

So everyone has a shot to win the South except Arizona State. Interesting.

Yeap, I think the south is going to be very, very tight. With Utah and USC performing under expectations and others, including CU performing over expectations.

 

[manhattanbuff]

Is there volume substantial enough to move a line?

I’m sure it’s happened, but when I’ve tracked line movements in highly watched games, bet volume does nearly nothing. I’ve seen lines improve for public sides in big games and the money pours in to the book for the square side. Books are okay with the volatility because they feel like their models are better than dudes guessing. With record handles the past five years, it looks like they’re right.

 

[manhattanbuff]

My discussion was in regards to the 2018 season and the state of the PAC 12. I don't see ASU, UA, Cal, WSU as being significantly better or worse than the Buffs. I see Washington and USC at the top with Utah, Stanford and Oregon behind that. No idea about UCLA this season, talented but a major change in culture which usually takes a few years to work out. That leaves OSU bringing up the rear.

I bring up Macintyre’s record because, as his mentor Bill Parcells famously quipped, “you are what your record says you are”. We all drank copious kool-aid last year coming off of the magic 2016 season. Suddenly, we weren’t even midlings again. We were again bottom of the barrel conference fodder. Macintyre will need to prove he can mobilize a non senior laden team of players he’s recruited before we even call him mediocre. There’s no evidence to back up anything other than typically being in the bottom quarter of the conference.