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2018 Offseason Realignment Thread (because Duff loves this ****)

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Duff Man said:
Peak offseason threads include uniform and/or conference expansion discussions.
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I haven't been looking at the conference realignment stuff yet. Seems quiet this year.

Should heat up again in the next 5 years. Big Ten deal runs through 2022-23. Pac-12 deal runs through 2023-24. Big 12 deal runs through 2024-25.

First mover in the short term could be another move in G5 like last year when the AAC added Wichita State for basketball (and would probably replace Navy with them for football if the Shockers ever decide to add a program).

The MWC is the one to watch right now. Its deal expires after 2019-20. Conference has been struggling and may need to make a move.

MWC is not sure what to do with its TV contract. The late start times are frustrating everyone, particularly Boise State which carries the conference on television. Boise State has had a side deal that pays it $2.9M per year ($1.8M bonus) while everyone else in the conference is getting $1.1M. The MWC is saying that is going away.

Between that situation with Boise State and the new UNLV stadium, I think there's an outside chance that the Pac-12 would make a move by adding those 2 to become the Pac-14 with an agreement that they're only paid $3M a year or something until the new Pac media contract. Otherwise, it looks like a lot of quiet the next 4 years.
 
I'm curious if the TV money is going to pretty much dry up at this point. Would like to see some of these conferences embrace 'new' media more. Strike a deal with Amazon or Netflix or whatever it may be.
 
dio said:
I'm curious if the TV money is going to pretty much dry up at this point. Would like to see some of these conferences embrace 'new' media more. Strike a deal with Amazon or Netflix or whatever it may be.
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That's one of the reasons I've got my eye on the MWC. They don't get much from their tv deal and it is killing them all with late start times leading to declining home attendance. They're considering "cutting the cord" on their next deal. If they do so the other conferences and a whole host of media companies will be watching that closely to see how it performs for all parties for a few years before the big boy conferences start negotiating.
 
Buffnik said:
That's one of the reasons I've got my eye on the MWC. They don't get much from their tv deal and it is killing them all with late start times leading to declining home attendance. They're considering "cutting the cord" on their next deal. If they do so the other conferences and a whole host of media companies will be watching that closely to see how it performs for all parties for a few years before the big boy conferences start negotiating.
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Everyone should remember that the MWC was actually the first conference with their own conference network (that has since folded). It wouldn't be too surprising to see them go out and be the guinea pig again.
 
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If the MWC goes all streaming after the 2019 season and does well for it, I can imagine the PAC and the rest of college sports following suit.
 
I don't believe any MWC school justifies a move to the Pac 12. If anything, still think the Big 12 might pick up some schools from the MWC and the AAC. If the MWC were to expand, who would they take? Do they go to the FCS level and bring up the Montana schools? Not sure they want to make the jump, seem happy at FCS and both have history of success at that level.
 
I feel like the next move will be the top 3 programs in the American Athletic Conference. The AAC TV stuff is up in 2019-20 I believe?

UCF is a good fit for the ACC to round it out
Memphis is a good fit for the Big 12 to make it a little more solid
Houston is a MUST get for the PAC-12 to make the move into Texas and round out a larger footprint for Media eyeballs.

As for Boise State or UNLV, I would be very interested in UNLV to put a pin in the last largest City in the Mountain/Pacific Area! I would also keep a close eye on Oklahoma State as another PAC-12 Target to create a travel partner for Houston.

Whatever happens, I actually like change to shake things up.
 
BSU add football only
UNLV add basketball only - unless the addition boosts their brand then add football.
UH add football and basketball
UNM add basketball only
 
Always BUFF said:
BSU add football only
UNLV add basketball only - unless the addition boosts their brand then add football.
UH add football and basketball
UNM add basketball only
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UNLV last made the round of 32 like 10 years ago. They aren't that good in MBB anymore.
 
buffaholic said:
UNLV last made the round of 32 like 10 years ago. They aren't that good in MBB anymore.
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They made a Sweet 16 in 2007.

Been down lately, but Menzies was a great hire. They should be really good next year if McCoy comes back for his sophomore year.
 
Buffnik said:
They made a Sweet 16 in 2007.

Been down lately, but Menzies was a great hire. They should be really good next year if McCoy comes back for his sophomore year.
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So you think the PAC12 should add them for basketball then, because they were a sweet 16 team 11 years ago? How many pancakes did you eat?
 
buffaholic said:
So you think the PAC12 should add them for basketball then, because they were a sweet 16 team 11 years ago? How many pancakes did you eat?
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No. I think they should be considered because Nevada is a major growth state in both population and recruiting, they're investing like crazy in athletic facilities, and they've put so much investment in to their medical school and other academic programs that they can be considered a peer institution with the rest of the conference.

With basketball, they'd be near the top of the conference in program prestige. We need that. It's definitely worth watching over the next couple years to see if its basketball gets back, its football takes the next step to being a bowl team, and if it makes it to Tier 1 in the next Carnegie rating. All of that is very possible.
 
I'll admit that I'm not plugged in to UNLV happenings and too lazy to research, but I'm surprised to hear they are investing the kind of $ that is needed to be Carnegie rated tier 1. I'm also not aware of their football investments. My thoughts are that nobody in Las Vegas is from Las Vegas, nobody cares about UNLV. While the population continues to grow, there's a huge amount of "nomads" in that population. Retirees and folks who won't stay there long term. I just don't see it ever being a top tier conference member.
 
buffaholic said:
I'll admit that I'm not plugged in to UNLV happenings and too lazy to research, but I'm surprised to hear they are investing the kind of $ that is needed to be Carnegie rated tier 1. I'm also not aware of their football investments. My thoughts are that nobody in Las Vegas is from Las Vegas, nobody cares about UNLV. While the population continues to grow, there's a huge amount of "nomads" in that population. Retirees and folks who won't stay there long term. I just don't see it ever being a top tier conference member.
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The guys who started MMA are huge boosters that built state of the art facilities for football. New stadium they'll share with the Raiders is coming for football.

Here's the strategic plan for academic (they're very committed to becoming a top research university):
The UNLV Top Tier Initiative is an extension of our vision of entering the top 100 American research universities, as designated by the Carnegie Foundation as a Highest Research Activity (R1) University.
https://www.unlv.edu/toptier

(I see newsletter stuff since Nikita went there.)
 
unlv and boise are not p12 caliber on the academic front-- the university presidents will balk. and the vegas thing freaks them out too although i do think the bb tourney in vegas is taking some of that fear away. i just don't see it happening any time soon even though unlv wants to try.

all-streaming subscription services are possible. i wonder what that does to the big networks and how they handle football. would there be a certain number of featured games and the rest would be streamed? if some conferences are all streaming and others have big network deals, things get ugly fast. exposure and revenue and all the rest would be uncertain. it would be really awful if for example the p12 goes all-streaming with some feature game packages on the networks and say that works out to 5mm a school. meanwhile, the sec does a new network contract and they get 30mm a school or something. and, talk about advantages in recruiting and rankings exposure... it would make the current imbalances look like a good deal.

things are wide open. the current tv deals look unsustainable so things are going to go unpredictably.
 
Buffnik said:
The guys who started MMA are huge boosters that built state of the art facilities for football. New stadium they'll share with the Raiders is coming for football.

Here's the strategic plan for academic (they're very committed to becoming a top research university):
The UNLV Top Tier Initiative is an extension of our vision of entering the top 100 American research universities, as designated by the Carnegie Foundation as a Highest Research Activity (R1) University.
https://www.unlv.edu/toptier

(I see newsletter stuff since Nikita went there.)
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Any sense as to how much of the population actually sticks long term? The views of this frequent visitor is that everyone is from somewhere else, mostly immigrants, with zero connection to UNLV or CFB. I realize my exposure there is mostly to Uber drivers and blackjack dealers/cocktail waitresses, and may not be representative. But I also do business there and the exposure there is to machine shops, and the like and these guys (in Colorado) identify with NFL football, rarely CFB. If the Raiders actually move there, I think the dream of UNLV having a sustainable CFB fan base is a pipe-dream. In fact, I think it is regardless of the Raiders move, but that won't help them.
 
buffaholic said:
Any sense as to how much of the population actually sticks long term? The views of this frequent visitor is that everyone is from somewhere else, mostly immigrants, with zero connection to UNLV or CFB. I realize my exposure there is mostly to Uber drivers and blackjack dealers/cocktail waitresses, and may not be representative. But I also do business there and the exposure there is to machine shops, and the like and these guys (in Colorado) identify with NFL football, rarely CFB. If the Raiders actually move there, I think the dream of UNLV having a sustainable CFB fan base is a pipe-dream. In fact, I think it is regardless of the Raiders move, but that won't help them.
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I didn't think it was that much different in Las Vegas than living in Boulder, Phoenix or San Diego. None of these places have a lot of multi-generation locals. None have a norm of most locals having spent their whole life there. In all of these places, if someone's lived there for a decade they're falling within the definition of "local".

The thing with UNLV is that it was pretty much a commuter school. Locals as well as young people who moved there for opportunity often go there but never live in the dorms. Kind of like ASU with that, but growing with its non-local part of the university to be more like ASU on graduate programs and with more traditional undergrad students.

You do see a lot of local pride in Las Vegas with the support of the high school football and basketball programs. UNLV gets that for basketball but has not for football. The thing to remember is that Las Vegas is like Los Angeles. Win, have buzz around the program, and it becomes the hot ticket "place to be" in town. Don't win and it's an afterthought with a small core base and so many better things to do than watch a mediocre team play a mediocre opponent. One place UNLV will benefit more than any other school if they were in the Pac-12 is that I'd expect them to get double the visitor attendance (at least) compared to the rest of us. Especially when they were hosting Utah, USC, UCLA, UA or ASU. But, no, they're not going to be a program with a lot of tradition and an existing large core fanbase for football. It's something they'd need to build up.
 
I find Nik's points about UNLV's commitment to growth very interesting.

I also find holic's point about Vegas being a transplant town very relevant. that comes up every time we discuss poor attendance at CU: "yes, there's lots of people here but everyone's a transplant and they have no loyalty to the Buffs..."

Edit: if there was a perfect candidate school, they'd already be in the conference
 
hokiehead said:
I find Nik's points about UNLV's commitment to growth very interesting.

I also find holic's point about Vegas being a transplant town very relevant. that comes up every time we discuss poor attendance at CU: "yes, there's lots of people here but everyone's a transplant and they have no loyalty to the Buffs..."

Edit: if there was a perfect candidate school, they'd already be in the conference
Click to expand...

Thing about Vegas being a transplant town is that it's working very well for the Golden Knights in the NHL. Recent article cited that a huge portion of their game-to-game ticket sales was due to fans from Boston, Tampa, etc. planning trips around games to Vegas. Could be a similar thing for UNLV if you add them onto the Pac-12. Of course, the Knights are also really friggin good, so that also has something to do with it...
 
Also, to Nik's point about the MWC potentially cutting the cord on their next deal...I talked to a MWC AD recently who said that the Facebook broadcasts are more beneficial, but that the donors and old heads like legacy media like ESPN et al. Probably would be the same kind of pushback, especially considering that is still where the money is. Depending on how NBC made out with their Olympic coverage revenues (they pushed a combined linear-non linear metric separate from Nielsen ratings, called Total Audience Delivery), we could see a move in the future but certainly not yet.

Right now, MWC is exploring Gonzaga as a basketball only option, which is necessary after they fumbled Wichita State and gifted them to the AAC...

Problem right now is the Pac-12 needs to find something within the footprint that aligns with their current schools academically, which is borderline impossible right now. I love the idea of UTSA to take a hold of West Texas, but it's not even remotely close to the type of research universities you'll get on the west coast.
 
Gonzaga is in a great place with this negotiation. Either get more from the WCC in terms of percentage of revenue or take an awesome deal from the MWC that pays them more than probably any other member. They don’t give a **** about being in a one bid conference, the MWC has become a one bid conference.
 
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