A quick look forward at Pac12 basketball in 2014-15 Personnel losses

[absinthe]

They beat a Sweet-16 team on their own floor. That's objectively non-debateable, it's simply what happened.

You're being a real downer. As usual it's all doom and gloom on the CU boards. How is it hard to not see 25-26 win team next year when we were well on our way to that before Dinwiddie got hurt? You expect CU to stay the same or regress?

I dotn mean to come off as that much of a downer as it relates to us, i really do thing Stanford was a soft ****ty team with a bad coach that fell apart under almost any adversity.

As for us this will be long:

I think our team without Spencer this year was roughly an 18 win team the way they played the last half of the pac12 schedule.

We will see progression in some of our players from this year to next but it will not be as drastic for Ski and Scott as it was this year especially the latter with his overall talent and ceiling we may not see a frosh-> Soph improvement like we did in Scott for a long time. XJ to me is the guy who could be an X-factor in making a leap, Wes is who he is and will progress and continue to be a beast inside. I cant really figure the freshmen, Thomas was mentioned but I think he takes one more year to develop Jhop/Fletch could be difference makers more so than they were this year.

I think the team will progress incrementally from this year to next baring an insane season from Collier and putting the whole team on a frosh guard like that in a power 6 conference is a risky at best proposition, look at how Jabri Bird played out at Cal this year. Especially when you begin to look at how we play on the road which is typically the most difficult place fro freshmen.

When I look around the rest of the league though Oregon has a ton of young talent that will all improve (I assume Young stays, admittedly it is a different equation if he goes). They will come out and be better than us, Arizona will no doubt be better than us, the next one that will generate some controversy is Utah they *could* quite conceivably leap us, they were a better squad than we were down the stretch even after we adjusted to Spencer going down. I haven't obviously seen the whole schedule yet but I think we'll see a lot of what we have from Boyle teams next year, barring an injury or other issues: 20 wins, Great at home, Bad on the road, Able to win on a neutral court when the defense comes to play.

None of that to me says top-3 in the pac-12 expectation without Spencer.

 

[absinthe]

So hypothetical events that could have happened but didn't are what you're basing your predictions on?

When we made the thread predictions Fresno was on the schedule so we were making predictions based on playing them, obviously if the board knew that we wouldn't be playing FSU but CSUjr all of us would have predicted us to win 1 more game.

Perhaps my initial phrasing was confusing but that doesn't seem like a hard concept to grasp.

 

[RollTad21]

When we made the thread predictions Fresno was on the schedule so we were making predictions based on playing them, obviously if the board knew that we wouldn't be playing FSU but CSUjr all of us would have predicted us to win 1 more game.

Perhaps my initial phrasing was confusing but that doesn't seem like a hard concept to grasp.

Charelston Southern was the team people didn't know we were playing.

 

[BuffTE41]

When we made the thread predictions Fresno was on the schedule so we were making predictions based on playing them, obviously if the board knew that we wouldn't be playing FSU but CSUjr all of us would have predicted us to win 1 more game.

Perhaps my initial phrasing was confusing but that doesn't seem like a hard concept to grasp.

I'm talking about your statement that we could have lost to UCSB.

I don't see how it's supposedly preposterous to predict a top-3 finish next year. Is there a single area in which CU will be worse next year from this year? I don't see it. Not in talent, depth, experience or coaching, CU will be better in every category.

We lost Spencer right as we were entering the Pac-12 schedule. If the CU team this year was good enough for a top-5 finish without him, why can't we expect a jump into the top-3 considering UCLA and Arizona will be losing key parts of their rosters and we return everyone? (That's not even including the possibility of Spencer returning) I don't see a single good argument against it.

 

[absinthe]

Charelston Southern was the team people didn't know we were playing.

shouldnt have been lazy in my post, CSUjr = Charleston Southern University

 

[RollTad21]

shouldnt have been lazy in my post, CSUjr = Charleston Southern University

haha I got that that is what you meant.

 

[cubuffs85]

So hypothetical events that could have happened but didn't are what you're basing your predictions on?

Almost everyone bases their predictions on hypothetically everything going right. If you had what would happen if Spencer went down, the predictions would've been drastically different.

 

[absinthe]

I'm talking about your statement that we could have lost to UCSB.

I don't see how it's supposedly preposterous to predict a top-3 finish next year. Is there a single area in which CU will be worse next year from this year? I don't see it. Not in talent, depth, experience or coaching, CU will be better in every category.

We lost Spencer right as we were entering the Pac-12 schedule. If the CU team this year was good enough for a top-5 finish, why can't we expect a jump into the top-3 considering UCLA and Arizona will be losing key parts of their rosters and we return everyone? I don't see a single good argument against it.

If you were at or watched that UCSB game and how that team was you know how close we were to losing that game. I get that it is retro-active speculation now, but given what he meant to that team in terms of scoring, rebounding and leadership the outcome of that game could have very easily gone the other way. Him not playing 2 games all year and 1 being ours was a lucky bounce for us in the non-con.

 

[absinthe]

Almost everyone bases their predictions on hypothetically everything going right. If you had what would happen if Spencer went down, the predictions would've been drastically different.

Disagree i think people post their prediction based on what they think will happen - if you look at the thread before the season there are lots of "and one game we should lose" comments.

 

[cubuffs85]

Disagree i think people post their prediction based on what they think will happen - if you look at the thread before the season there are lots of "and one game we should lose" comments.

I'll try to look for the "If Spencer goes down" part of the predictions. I do think people in general tend to be sunshiney about this sort of thing.

 

[absinthe]

I'll try to look for the "If Spencer goes down" part of the predictions. I do think people in general tend to be sunshiney about this sort of thing.

Good point.

Only 1 person I could find alluded to the potential for a catastrophic injury in their posts in the prediction threads.

 

[BuffTE41]

If you were at or watched that UCSB game and how that team was you know how close we were to losing that game. I get that it is retro-active speculation now, but given what he meant to that team in terms of scoring, rebounding and leadership the outcome of that game could have very easily gone the other way. Him not playing 2 games all year and 1 being ours was a lucky bounce for us in the non-con.

UCSB could have come out and shot 13% and we could have beaten them by 50. Askia Booker could have not hit the 3 at the buzzer and we could have lost to Kansas. Spencer could have cut the right way and not torn his ACL at Washington. All irrelevant hypotheticals.

What does matter and what is actually happening is the return of every player on the roster. Experience, talent and skill win games. Look at Virginia. CU is returning a lot of experience talent and skill, if not the most in the entire conference.

 

[slider]

Why does everyone assume Dinwiddie comes back 100% if he doesn't declare? He'll be right at 9 months which is the minimum for recovery. Not to mention (I don't have stats to back this up) but I feel like when guys tear ACL's they're prone to injuries on their other leg. Westbrook/Derrick Rose and their meniscus (Nerlens Noel and Rose sat out how long?). I'm not really going to count on a lot out of Dinwiddie IF he comes back

 

[CVilleBuff]

UCSB could have come out and shot 13% and we could have beaten them by 50. Askia Booker could have not hit the 3 at the buzzer and we could have lost to Kansas. Spencer could have cut the right way and not torn his ACL at Washington. All irrelevant hypotheticals.

What does matter and what is actually happening is the return of every player on the roster. Experience, talent and skill win games. Look at Virginia. CU is returning a lot of experience talent and skill, if not the most in the entire conference.

Virginia has a true freshman point guard performing like an upperclassman. If we got that from Dom we'd go to a new level, big "if". And they also run an actual offense...they're surgical.

 

[tante]

Virginia has a true freshman point guard performing like an upperclassman. If we got that from Dom we'd go to a new level, big "if". And they also run an actual offense...they're surgical.

can't wait to see them tonight.

 

[Buffnik]

All I know is that, at the very least, CU is adding Dom and Miller to a roster that went .500 in Pac-12 play. 50% in a power conference is good enough to dance, and they'll be better next year.

At the most, CU is adding Dom and Miller to a roster that with Spencer was undefeated in Pac-12 play. That's a team that could beat anyone, anywhere.

 

[letsgoavs192]

Why does everyone assume Dinwiddie comes back 100% if he doesn't declare? He'll be right at 9 months which is the minimum for recovery. Not to mention (I don't have stats to back this up) but I feel like when guys tear ACL's they're prone to injuries on their other leg. Westbrook/Derrick Rose and their meniscus (Nerlens Noel and Rose sat out how long?). I'm not really going to count on a lot out of Dinwiddie IF he comes back

actually it it would be 10 months at the start of the season. 14 months by March

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Why does everyone assume Dinwiddie comes back 100% if he doesn't declare? He'll be right at 9 months which is the minimum for recovery. Not to mention (I don't have stats to back this up) but I feel like when guys tear ACL's they're prone to injuries on their other leg. Westbrook/Derrick Rose and their meniscus (Nerlens Noel and Rose sat out how long?). I'm not really going to count on a lot out of Dinwiddie IF he comes back

Very valid point. There are 2 huge if's in this -- IF he shuns the nba and IF he is truly healthy and effective. We can't count on him returning and playing at the same pre-udub game level.

I hope he does, but I'm not gonna get my hopes up.

 

[mattrob]

What does matter and what is actually happening is the return of every player on the roster. Experience, talent and skill win games. Look at Virginia. CU is returning a lot of experience talent and skill, if not the most in the entire conference.

I'll jump in here, but to say we're bringing back the most experience, talent and skill is a big statement. I get the optimism. IF everything goes perfectly, we're looking at a big year next year, with or without Dinwiddie. The problem is, who can we absolutely count on next year? I would say Josh is the only 100% sure thing next year, barring injury. I'm not as high on XJ as some here, and still view him as a wildcard. He's too inconsistent and I want to see him play with an edge consistently before I buy in. Ski is just so inconsistent, and his shooting has not returned to the level of his freshman year. Dinwiddie will be good if he's back, regardless, but the concerns over his ability to regain his pre-injury form immediately are valid.

Beyond those 4, there is a lot of youth and what if's. We could see 3 or 4 of Thomas/Collier/Hopkins/Fletcher/Miller/Gordon emerge, or we could see incremental improvement, or even regression, from any/all of them. If I were 100% convinced that one of that group, or even Ski or XJ, would emerge as a consistent force, I'd be more bullish on next year. As it is, I think there's enough uncertainty to temper expectations a little bit, although there's certainly potential for a top-3 finish if things break right.

 

[BuffG]

I don't get the hullabaloo over the top 3 finish. There was a 5-way log jam for 3rd this year with two more teams 1 game behind. Who cares if they're top 3 or top 5 unless you're predicting a conference title it's just semantics. Most here are counting on a ticket to the dance so the only predictions worth making are can they make a tourney run or can they win a PAC-12 title

 

[cubuffs85]

I don't get the hullabaloo over the top 3 finish. There was a 5-way log jam for 3rd this year with two more teams 1 game behind. Who cares if they're top 3 or top 5 unless you're predicting a conference title it's just semantics. Most here are counting on a ticket to the dance so the only predictions worth making are can they make a tourney run or can they win a PAC-12 title

It's just a benchmark and saying how good we are compared to the rest of the conference. Some years it's more clear cut than others.

 

[cmgoods]

I don't know if he's any good, but Desmond Simmons is transferring from UW

 

[mattrob]

I don't get the hullabaloo over the top 3 finish. There was a 5-way log jam for 3rd this year with two more teams 1 game behind. Who cares if they're top 3 or top 5 unless you're predicting a conference title it's just semantics. Most here are counting on a ticket to the dance so the only predictions worth making are can they make a tourney run or can they win a PAC-12 title

It was mentioned earlier in the thread by a couple of posters as the expectation for next year, so the conversation has centered around those remarks. Other than that, there's not a lot of significance to 3rd place.

 

[cubuffs85]

Not sure if it's in Tad's contract, but he could get a bonus for finishing 2nd or 3rd.

 

[absinthe]

UCSB could have come out and shot 13% and we could have beaten them by 50. Askia Booker could have not hit the 3 at the buzzer and we could have lost to Kansas. Spencer could have cut the right way and not torn his ACL at Washington. All irrelevant hypotheticals.

What does matter and what is actually happening is the return of every player on the roster. Experience, talent and skill win games. Look at Virginia. CU is returning a lot of experience talent and skill, if not the most in the entire conference.

Ok ignoring the hypothetical and looking at real numbers CU is returning everyone from a team that did not average 1 point per possession w/out Dinwiddie (ht/JG for the stat) That is not good look at the per group that puts us in from an offensive efficiency and wins stand point.

 

[absinthe]

I don't know if he's any good, but Desmond Simmons is transferring from UW

thanks will add to OP

 

[Goose]

Ok ignoring the hypothetical and looking at real numbers CU is returning everyone from a team that did not average 1 point per possession w/out Dinwiddie (ht/JG for the stat) That is not good look at the per group that puts us in from an offensive efficiency and wins stand point.

This is a concern of mine. The hope is that they got a lot of the growing pains out of the way this year, and that we can almost consider the last few weeks of this year to be like the Europe trip two years ago.

 

[absinthe]

This is a concern of mine. The hope is that they got a lot of the growing pains out of the way this year, and that we can almost consider the last few weeks of this year to be like the Europe trip two years ago.

Look at the defensive slide without Spencer in the lineup as well. Unless Hopkins makes a leap defensively (and Spencer did from fr->Soph) we could be watching some ugly games. mMakes us more offensively efficient and better on defense likely isnt coming from a freshman at least if tend holds so we'll need several someones on the current roster to step up.

 

[Darth Snow]

Look at the defensive slide without Spencer in the lineup as well. Unless Hopkins makes a leap defensively (and Spencer did from fr->Soph) we could be watching some ugly games. mMakes us more offensively efficient and better on defense likely isnt coming from a freshman at least if tend holds so we'll need several someones on the current roster to step up.

Losing fletch hurt the defense as well. And he is most definitely coming back and will battle for more minutes next year.

Hopkins was improving defensively (and offensively) throughout the year. If he keeps going during the offseason, the #gameshooter could be a lot of fun to watch next year (even more fun, I guess).

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

I just hope Hopkins, Fletch and DT find the shooting range that was so hyped during the recruitment and summer before they came. If those three can hit shots consistently, watch out