Spencer and Ski were going to do in their upcoming seasons. Both sets of analysis had their hits and misses, and this analysis has its faults, but it's summer and I've been seeing a lot of discussion about JHop, Fletch and DT on twitter and what we can expect from them this year so I decided to run the numbers. I took each players list of KenPom comparables and ran the numbers to see how they improved their next season. I then applied those averages to each of these guys' stats from their freshman year. If each of these guys progress like their comparables, here is what we could expect: Tre'Shaun Fletcher With Fletch, the first thing that jumps out to me is the ORtg. He was the only one of the frosh to post an ORtg of 100 or greater last year, and one of four players on the team to do that (along with Spencer, Josh and XJ). Fletch's numbers were slightly limited last year due to the injury. You can argue that he didn't play enough to hit the "freshman wall", but he also didn't get enough PT to really find his groove early on either. Honestly, of all the projections listed here, this one seems the most likely. It's solid overall. He's going to put up good solid numbers, and I see him being a bit of a point forward for the team as well. He's going to be a good guy to have on the court when Dom is out there to give him a safety net for ball handling. His TORate was by far the lowest of all of the freshmen last year (and third lowest on the team). I'm also curious to watch his offensive rebounding rate as he was tied with DT for third on the team. Note - his sample size is slightly limited. One of his comparables was Justin Coleman of Marshall, who was dismissed from the team after his freshman season and another was Hauns Brereton from Northern Colorado who then had to sit one year out as he transferred to Hawaii after that season. Jaron Hopkins With JHop, the biggest thing is going to be consistency. He put up ORtg's of 150+ last year (Oregon & Air Force), but then put up a 0 (Elon) as well. If he can get the consistency up, his overall efficiency will rise as well. The thing that jumps out to me the most is the Usage rating - even though he was technically a PG last year, JHop had the lowest usage rating of all of the freshmen. I expect that to rise this year. He also had the highest steal percentage of any of the freshman (and was behind only Spencer in that ranking). I do like the way his ARate & TORate numbers are projected to go as well. I think the game slowed down for him a bit as the year went on and he started to feel more comfortable. That will allow him to minimize his turnovers. One note on JHop's comparables - one of them is Malcolm Brogdon from Virginia. Brogdon played his freshman year and then redshirted his sophomore year due to a knee injury. So his numbers are slightly higher than the rest. But even without him in this group, JHop's numbers improve overall. Dustin Thomas This is by far the most bi-polar comparison group. Part of the reason is that there are only four comparables to use instead of five (one of his comparables is fellow freshman Kuran Iverson from Memphis). Another part though is because DT is a unique player statistically. Not one of his comps had a comparable score of 900+. Ultimately though, the numbers are most skewed because of the four comps, two are forwards and two are guards. Ultimately though, I do think that the ORtg will come up quite a bit as well as his shooting percentage. His ARate & TORate won't be as high as his numbers indicate either. The two things to watch the most with DT are his Offensive Rebounding percentage (he was tied for third last year on the team) and his fouls called for rate (where he was EASILY the team leader). Final note - there is no King comparison. Due to his limited minutes, none of the comparables really worked that well. The two "best" had only played one year and there weren't numbers to use for the next season.