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Advanced Stats and CU - 2016 Edition

Per NCAA stats.

#15 Total Offense
#18 Total Defense

Not bad.

When half your schedule has been on the road at Michigan and Oregon, it's crazy good. Some games on the schedule that won't be friendly to defensive stats due to their styles of play (ASU and WSU, most especially) and a couple that play a style that's not friendly to our offense (Stanford and Utah), but there is reason to believe that CU can hold up in the rankings.
 
When half your schedule has been on the road at Michigan and Oregon, it's crazy good. Some games on the schedule that won't be friendly to defensive stats due to their styles of play (ASU and WSU, most especially) and a couple that play a style that's not friendly to our offense (Stanford and Utah), but there is reason to believe that CU can hold up in the rankings.
It will certainly slip from here. Here's a list of teams that were top 20 in both total offense and total defense last year: Clemson, Boise St. That's it.
 
Just browsing that site, and it's nice to see LBs as our leading tacklers. It wasn't too long ago that those leaders were DBs.
 
Updated
He has 8-4 as our most likely record with equal chances of finishing better or worse than that.

Record probability
0-12
1-11 2-10 3-9 4-8 5-7 6-6 7-5 8-4 9-3 10-2 11-1 12-0
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 10% 23% 30% 23% 9% 2% 0%

Also noteworthy is that we have the S&P+ rated #1 passing offense.
chances of winning 11 games = chances of not making a bowl.

WHAT.
 
Those percentages don't seem very scientific lol.
They are statistics, but I'm just in awe any objective system can come up with that at the moment. We are a long way from a week before the season.

Also, FYI, preseason projections still account for 30% of the S&P rankings.
 
They are statistics, but I'm just in awe any objective system can come up with that at the moment. We are a long way from a week before the season.

Also, FYI, preseason projections still account for 30% of the S&P rankings.
Yeah I just find it odd there is the same probability of going 7-5 as there is to go 9-3, same with 11-1 vs.5-7. I would have thought the probabilities would be atleast a couple percentage points different.
 
Yeah I just find it odd there is the same probability of going 7-5 as there is to go 9-3, same with 11-1 vs.5-7. I would have thought the probabilities would be atleast a couple percentage points different.
that is weird. usually it's a bit off. Must just have a pretty normal bell curve based on how our opponents have looked.
 
Fire Lindgren. Mac is too loyal to his assistants. His offensive scheme designs, play calling and QB development all suck.

I will say that the QB's have taken a big step forward this year and I don't think it is a coincidence that it has happened in the season that Lindgren has fewer responsibilities. Mac seems to have managed the personalities of his coaching staff extremely well.
 
I will say that the QB's have taken a big step forward this year and I don't think it is a coincidence that it has happened in the season that Lindgren has fewer responsibilities. Mac seems to have managed the personalities of his coaching staff extremely well.
I think a lot of it has to do with the OL. DID YOU SEE HOW MUCH TIME MONTEZ HAD?
 
I think a lot of it has to do with the OL. DID YOU SEE HOW MUCH TIME MONTEZ HAD?

This. I remember Tom Brady looking awful in a Bronco game last year. Fixing the OL has done wonders. Also, we have better overall scheme and play design (thanks AirRaid). We get the ball out quick often. We have some play-action and QB run plays, which keeps the defense from selling out on the all out pass rush every play.

I saw a nice screen to a RB on Saturday. That play is absolutely necessary and we didn't run it last year. Oddly, it was a huge play for us in 2014.
 
Most statistics don't mean anything until after October. The one worth paying attention to is havoc rate and explosiveness...those numbers jump out.
 
Per NCAA stats.

#15 Total Offense
#18 Total Defense

Not bad.
Not bad is an understatement. Where were we the year before JMFL took over? In 2014 we were #114 in total defense. He's a ****ing genius! Please stay for a long time Jim...we'll give u all the Pepsi u can drink!!!
 
I will say that the QB's have taken a big step forward this year and I don't think it is a coincidence that it has happened in the season that Lindgren has fewer responsibilities. Mac seems to have managed the personalities of his coaching staff extremely well.
Pretty clear that Lingren is much better focusing on film and play calling while Chev coaches the guys up. Chev has brought alot of 'focus on details' and its the 'little mistakes that kill you' and that has been huge. It kind of like we have someone focused on planning and someone focused on execution.

I know we have Irwin back and that is HUGE, but Adams seems to be doing a lights out job.
 
*UPDATE* In terms of YPG, Buffs are:

#9 Total Offense
#13 Total Defense

Only other team in the top 15 on both sides of the ball is Ohio State. OSU has played: Bowling Green (home), Tulsa (home), @Oklahoma, and Rutgers (home).
Actually, espn has us as #6 in total offense in YPG and #24 in total defense in YPG.


#36 scoring defense, #16 scoring offense.
#3 passing efficiency defense. #8 passing efficiency offense (using NCAA's metric)

in yards per attempt, we are #8 at 9.8. Only non option offenses better than us are Toledo, Texas Tech, ND, and Indiana. Toledo is crazy good at that stat (almost 2 yards per attempt better than all non option offenses).

Yards per rush attempt is 4.3, just behind CSU at #70. CU is also giving up 4.2 attempts per rush, at #69.

Yards per pass attempt against CU is 4.5. That is #1 in the nation. Tied with OSU. Michigan is #4 at 5.2
 
Good point Denver. I think this is what has me believing we good. We are good on both sides of the ball. You always have teams like Oregon, TT and Houston on top of the Offensive statistics but you rarely see those same teams at the top of the defensive statistics.

Still though, with teams getting into the meat of their conference season these statistics will start to shake out and we will learn who is for real.
 
Still though, with teams getting into the meat of their conference season these statistics will start to shake out and we will learn who is for real.
Kinda disagree cuz I think we are for real but we won't be able to hold most PAC 12 teams to 230 yds while I suspect Toledo will continue their gaudy numbers. I suspect our O will do as well as we only play 2 good defenses in conf play but I think our D stats will look worse as time goes on.
 
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