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Bubble Watch 2017 (AKA, the Hoops Hate Thread)
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Buffs enter the night at #107 RPI.
To give you an idea of how soft the bubble is this year and how broken the RPI looks amidst this mess:
Texas A&M is playing at Vanderbilt right now. aTm is 13-11, 5-7 in the SEC. RPI of 93. Vandy is 12-13, 5-7 in the SEC. RPI of 62!
I wonder if the Committee will focus more on the Ken Pom rankings on Selection Sunday.
Let's hope they do. CU is #68 entering the night on KP. LINK
To give you an idea of how soft the bubble is this year and how broken the RPI looks amidst this mess:
Texas A&M is playing at Vanderbilt right now. aTm is 13-11, 5-7 in the SEC. RPI of 93. Vandy is 12-13, 5-7 in the SEC. RPI of 62!
I wonder if the Committee will focus more on the Ken Pom rankings on Selection Sunday.
Let's hope they do. CU is #68 entering the night on KP. LINK
"soft" is not an adjective I'm used seeing modify the noun "bubble", and google isn't helping (found it referenced in a dozen spots, defined in none, just used without introduction as though the meaning is intuitive). WTF is meant by a "soft bubble"?
less important, who introduced that phrase into US sports lexicon and why?
less important, who introduced that phrase into US sports lexicon and why?
not trying to put a fine point, i'm seriously confused. does "soft" mean that lots of at-large teams will make it or fewer at-large teams make it? regardless, do we have any idea until the mid-major tourneys start (i.e. isn't this usually driven by how many mid-major favorites get upset in their conference tourneys)?Can always count on hokie to put too fine a point on things.
Edit: poor phrasing, the number of at-large teams doesn't change. I can't immediately think how to correctly phrase the question, but hope someone can smell what i"m cooking.
What it means is that it is a top heavy year in the major conferences and when we look at resumes for the multi-bid league teams, there's a lot of crap once you get past #3 or #4 in most of them. On top of that, there don't look to be too many cases in the mid-majors where an upset winner would burst a bubble to steal a bid. Maybe the WCC if a team like BYU or San Fran made the Dance, since Gonzaga and St. Mary's would still get in. Lots of muck from about RPI 35 to RPI 125 with a lot of very flawed teams... to the point where we even have a bunch in there with losing records still.
In closing, a sentence sure to grind your teeth: Irregardless, "soft bubble" is the way people say it at this point in time.
thanks for the straight answer and for figuring out what I was trying to ask. now I can be one of those people.What it means is that it is a top heavy year in the major conferences and when we look at resumes for the multi-bid league teams, there's a lot of crap once you get past #3 or #4 in most of them. On top of that, there don't look to be too many cases in the mid-majors where an upset winner would burst a bubble to steal a bid. Maybe the WCC if a team like BYU or San Fran made the Dance, since Gonzaga and St. Mary's would still get in. Lots of muck from about RPI 35 to RPI 125 with a lot of very flawed teams... to the point where we even have a bunch in there with losing records still.
In closing, a sentence sure to grind your teeth: Irregardless, "soft bubble" is the way people say it at this point in time.
.
Buffs start the day at 105.
CU with a huge opportunity in Eugene at 1pm on FOX. To give an idea of how good this game is for RPI... Utah moved up a few spots on Thursday when they got blown out at Oregon.
Beyond that, lots of activity today. Will be tracking teams helping or hurting their chances today along with how certain games impact CU's position.
CU with a huge opportunity in Eugene at 1pm on FOX. To give an idea of how good this game is for RPI... Utah moved up a few spots on Thursday when they got blown out at Oregon.
Beyond that, lots of activity today. Will be tracking teams helping or hurting their chances today along with how certain games impact CU's position.
Right now, the ACC looks like a 9-bid league: Louisville, UNC, Duke, UVA, FSU, Notre Dame, VA Tech, Miami & Syracuse (with Cuse being the most tenuous).
Then they've got 3 teams that would get in with late runs: Clemson, GA Tech & Wake. Those are the 3 we should really be rooting against in all games.
Then they've got 3 teams that would get in with late runs: Clemson, GA Tech & Wake. Those are the 3 we should really be rooting against in all games.
In the Big East, it looks like Villanova, Creighton, Butler and Xavier are all in. So we're rooting against the following that are on the Bubble: Seton Hall, Marquette and Providence. Also have to look out for St. John's or Georgetown going on a run to end the year.
In the SEC, we should expect Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina and probably Arkansas as all being in. Root for them when they're playing conference games and against the following bubble teams: Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, UGA, Vandy, Auburn -- none of which are very good but someone probably gets a bid out of that group... we just don't want 2 of them to get in.
With the B1G, we've got Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland all in. Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan and Michigan State are probably on the right side of the line right now with Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State and Illinois all having a chance at a late run to get in. Could be anywhere from a 5-bid to a 9-bid league.
With the Pac-12, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA are locks with USC very close to it. Cal's in great shape on the bubble. Utah's got the right record but a joke of a schedule and CU needs a big run to get legitimately onto the Bubble. Stanford, based on strength of schedule, could sneak in if it can get a few more wins to close the year.
AAC is another multi-bid league. SMU and Cincinnati are gonna be in. Bubble could deliver none and maybe 2 out of Houston, Memphis, UCF and the longshot potential of UConn going on a late run like they often do.
Also, WCC is a 2-bid with Gonzaga and St. Mary's. BYU and San Fran have a puncher's chance of getting in, though.
In the MVC, Wichita State and Illinois State should be in. Got to watch their conference tourney because if a different team wins it someone is going to be out.
Last, in the MWC, the only team that looks like it could get an at-large invite is Nevada. Let's hope they win out and win their tourney, because that would be very good for opening a spot for a western team from the Pac-12.
Also, WCC is a 2-bid with Gonzaga and St. Mary's. BYU and San Fran have a puncher's chance of getting in, though.
In the MVC, Wichita State and Illinois State should be in. Got to watch their conference tourney because if a different team wins it someone is going to be out.
Last, in the MWC, the only team that looks like it could get an at-large invite is Nevada. Let's hope they win out and win their tourney, because that would be very good for opening a spot for a western team from the Pac-12.
Duke is gonna be scary down the stretch I'd think, their young guys are starting to step up especially Giles. Tatum has been good all year, he's a freak athlete that can shoot.
Iowa lost at home to Illinois, which should end them. Illini have a decent RPI (60), but at 15-12 (5-9) they would still need to go on a run.
KSU won at Texas. That sucks for us. Cats alive on the bubble at 17-10 (6-8).
St. Bonaventure lost at Dayton. Probably a game it needed. Now 16-10 (8-6) in A10.
KSU won at Texas. That sucks for us. Cats alive on the bubble at 17-10 (6-8).
St. Bonaventure lost at Dayton. Probably a game it needed. Now 16-10 (8-6) in A10.
Texas A&M now 14-12 (6-8) in SEC after rolling Auburn 16-11 (5-9). Both remain barely on bubble.
Pitt with a very nice home win over Florida State to get to 15-12 (4-10). Barely on the bubble.
Michigan State got its doors blown off at Purdue to fall to 16-11 (8-6) in the B1G. Sparty still on right side of the bubble, but will they go 1-3 in last 4?
Pitt with a very nice home win over Florida State to get to 15-12 (4-10). Barely on the bubble.
Michigan State got its doors blown off at Purdue to fall to 16-11 (8-6) in the B1G. Sparty still on right side of the bubble, but will they go 1-3 in last 4?
TCU lost at Iowa State and is now 17-10 (6-8) in the Big 12. Still on the bubble, though.
Ole Miss lost at Arkansas and is now 16-11 (7-7) in the SEC. Again, still on the bubble.
Ohio State lost at home vs Nebraska and is now 15-12 (5-9) in the B1G. Hanging on by a thread.
Houston lost at home to SMU and is now 18-8 (9-5) in the AAC. Still on the bubble.
Georgia lost at home vs Kentucky in one of the best games of the day (close the whole way). Now 15-12 (6-8), hanging by a thread.
Northwestern, though, held off a home scare from friggin' Rutgers to solidify its position. Now 20-7 (9-5).
Ole Miss lost at Arkansas and is now 16-11 (7-7) in the SEC. Again, still on the bubble.
Ohio State lost at home vs Nebraska and is now 15-12 (5-9) in the B1G. Hanging on by a thread.
Houston lost at home to SMU and is now 18-8 (9-5) in the AAC. Still on the bubble.
Georgia lost at home vs Kentucky in one of the best games of the day (close the whole way). Now 15-12 (6-8), hanging by a thread.
Northwestern, though, held off a home scare from friggin' Rutgers to solidify its position. Now 20-7 (9-5).
I'm traveling this week, so wanted to get this knocked out tonight. I'll be home Thursday for the CU game, but here's what we want to happen the next few days to the multi-bid conference teams that are on the bubble:
Monday
Iowa State (17-9, 9-5, RPI 44) at Texas Tech (17-10, 5-9, RPI 89), 7pm, ESPNU... Clones can pretty much end TTU's chances here.
Tuesday
Purdue (22-5, 11-3, RPI 21) at Penn State (14-13, 6-8, RPI 74), 4pm, BTN... Purdue can pretty much end PSU's chances here.
Rhode Island (17-9, 9-5, RPI 51) at La Salle (14-11, 8-6, RPI 98), 4pm, CBSSN... A10 won't put a team in with La Salle's record, but the pundits like URI.
Auburn (16-11, 5-9, RPI 83) at LSU (9-17, 1-13, RPI 155), 5pm, SECN... A loss here would end Auburn's faint hopes.
Clemson (14-12, 4-10, RPI 60) at Virginia Tech (18-8, 7-7, RPI 35), 5pm, ESPNU... Clemson keeps getting bubble talk. This could end that.
Northwestern (20-7, 9-5, RPI 37) at Illinois (15-12, 5-9, RPI 67), 6pm, BTN... Can end the Illini's faint hopes right here.
NC State (14-14, 3-12, RPI 112) at Georgia Tech (16-11, 7-7, RPI 76), 6pm... An upset here would be catastrophic for GA Tech.
St. John's (12-15, 6-8, RPI 122) at Marquette (16-10, 7-7, RPI 73), 6pm, FS1... Marquette probably can't afford to lose this.
Ole Miss (16-11, 7-7, RPI 70) at Miss State (14-12, 5-9, RPI 126), 7pm, ESPN2... Would be a tough loss to overcome for Ole Miss.
Indiana (15-12, 5-9, RPI 90) at Iowa (14-13, 6-8, RPI 119), 7pm, ESPN... Iowa win would end Indiana's slim hopes.
Wednesday
Vanderbilt (14-13, 7-7, RPI 49) at Tennessee (15-12, 7-7, RPI 50), 4:30pm, SECN... Go Vandy. Worse record & tougher closing schedule.
Michigan (17-10, 7-7, RPI 55) at Rutgers (13-15, 2-13, RPI 153), 4:30pm, BTN... Rutgers almost won at Northwestern on the road this week. Maybe.
Duke (22-5, 10-4, RPI 11) at Syracuse (16-12, 8-7, RPI 86), 5pm, ESPN... Loss would leave Cuse in bad shape with next game at Louisville.
Pittsburgh (15-12, 4-10, RPI 59) at Wake Forest (15-12, 6-9 RPI 38), 5pm... Either result could work, but let's end Pitt & hope Wake loses final 2 to Louisville & at VA Tech
TCU (17-10, 6-8, RPI 58) at Kansas (24-3, 12-2, RPI 1), 5pm, ESPN2... TCU has WVU after this to ensure sub-.500 in Big 12 for year at end of week.
Xavier (18-9, 9-6, RPI 18) at Seton Hall (16-10, 6-8, RPI 47), 5pm, FS1... Xavier riddled with injuries, but if they can pull it off the Hall is in trouble.
Texas A&M (14-12, 6-8, RPI 94) at Arkansas (20-7, 9-5, RPI 33), 6:30pm, SECN... Arkansas, I figure, will get in. They can end aTm's slim hopes here.
Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-7, RPI 29) at Kansas State (17-10, 6-8, RPI 57), 7pm, ESPNU... I figure OSU's gonna be in. KSU needs to lose.
Connecticut (14-12, 9-5, RPI 102) at Houston (18-8, 9-5, RPI 63), 7pm, CBSSN... We need the AAC to be a 2-bid league, so go UConn.
Providence (16-11, 6-8, RPI 66) at Creighton (22-5, 9-5, RPI 22), 7pm... Creighton can hurt the Friars a lot here.
Obviously, there is a lot more than can impact CU the next 3 days. For example, if you see a traditional 1-bid or 2-bid league with a leader(s) that has a real high RPI (ex. Middle Tennessee is #31 with the 2nd place LA Tech at #123), we probably want to see MTSU lose so that they're not in position to get an at-large if they lose in the conference tourney. So, in the major conferences we want them top heavy to make the teams below them as crap as possible. But in the mid majors, we don't want anyone to be all that impressive so that they only get 1 bid on Selection Sunday.
Monday
Iowa State (17-9, 9-5, RPI 44) at Texas Tech (17-10, 5-9, RPI 89), 7pm, ESPNU... Clones can pretty much end TTU's chances here.
Tuesday
Purdue (22-5, 11-3, RPI 21) at Penn State (14-13, 6-8, RPI 74), 4pm, BTN... Purdue can pretty much end PSU's chances here.
Rhode Island (17-9, 9-5, RPI 51) at La Salle (14-11, 8-6, RPI 98), 4pm, CBSSN... A10 won't put a team in with La Salle's record, but the pundits like URI.
Auburn (16-11, 5-9, RPI 83) at LSU (9-17, 1-13, RPI 155), 5pm, SECN... A loss here would end Auburn's faint hopes.
Clemson (14-12, 4-10, RPI 60) at Virginia Tech (18-8, 7-7, RPI 35), 5pm, ESPNU... Clemson keeps getting bubble talk. This could end that.
Northwestern (20-7, 9-5, RPI 37) at Illinois (15-12, 5-9, RPI 67), 6pm, BTN... Can end the Illini's faint hopes right here.
NC State (14-14, 3-12, RPI 112) at Georgia Tech (16-11, 7-7, RPI 76), 6pm... An upset here would be catastrophic for GA Tech.
St. John's (12-15, 6-8, RPI 122) at Marquette (16-10, 7-7, RPI 73), 6pm, FS1... Marquette probably can't afford to lose this.
Ole Miss (16-11, 7-7, RPI 70) at Miss State (14-12, 5-9, RPI 126), 7pm, ESPN2... Would be a tough loss to overcome for Ole Miss.
Indiana (15-12, 5-9, RPI 90) at Iowa (14-13, 6-8, RPI 119), 7pm, ESPN... Iowa win would end Indiana's slim hopes.
Wednesday
Vanderbilt (14-13, 7-7, RPI 49) at Tennessee (15-12, 7-7, RPI 50), 4:30pm, SECN... Go Vandy. Worse record & tougher closing schedule.
Michigan (17-10, 7-7, RPI 55) at Rutgers (13-15, 2-13, RPI 153), 4:30pm, BTN... Rutgers almost won at Northwestern on the road this week. Maybe.
Duke (22-5, 10-4, RPI 11) at Syracuse (16-12, 8-7, RPI 86), 5pm, ESPN... Loss would leave Cuse in bad shape with next game at Louisville.
Pittsburgh (15-12, 4-10, RPI 59) at Wake Forest (15-12, 6-9 RPI 38), 5pm... Either result could work, but let's end Pitt & hope Wake loses final 2 to Louisville & at VA Tech
TCU (17-10, 6-8, RPI 58) at Kansas (24-3, 12-2, RPI 1), 5pm, ESPN2... TCU has WVU after this to ensure sub-.500 in Big 12 for year at end of week.
Xavier (18-9, 9-6, RPI 18) at Seton Hall (16-10, 6-8, RPI 47), 5pm, FS1... Xavier riddled with injuries, but if they can pull it off the Hall is in trouble.
Texas A&M (14-12, 6-8, RPI 94) at Arkansas (20-7, 9-5, RPI 33), 6:30pm, SECN... Arkansas, I figure, will get in. They can end aTm's slim hopes here.
Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-7, RPI 29) at Kansas State (17-10, 6-8, RPI 57), 7pm, ESPNU... I figure OSU's gonna be in. KSU needs to lose.
Connecticut (14-12, 9-5, RPI 102) at Houston (18-8, 9-5, RPI 63), 7pm, CBSSN... We need the AAC to be a 2-bid league, so go UConn.
Providence (16-11, 6-8, RPI 66) at Creighton (22-5, 9-5, RPI 22), 7pm... Creighton can hurt the Friars a lot here.
Obviously, there is a lot more than can impact CU the next 3 days. For example, if you see a traditional 1-bid or 2-bid league with a leader(s) that has a real high RPI (ex. Middle Tennessee is #31 with the 2nd place LA Tech at #123), we probably want to see MTSU lose so that they're not in position to get an at-large if they lose in the conference tourney. So, in the major conferences we want them top heavy to make the teams below them as crap as possible. But in the mid majors, we don't want anyone to be all that impressive so that they only get 1 bid on Selection Sunday.
Barring total collapse by either team (losing all remaining games), it's hard to see Miami or Virginia not making the Dance. But, that said, this game between the two of them is about as unwatchable as basketball between talented teams can get. 22-21 Miami with 16 minutes left in the 2nd half.
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
Lot of sub 500 conference teams still on bubble. When does winning games mean something. I get ACC is strong but Clemson getting noticed by losing.
Yep. I understand how the committee could take an 8-10 or maybe even a 7-11 team from the ACC this year, particularly if it performed well in the non-con with a good non-con SOS. But teams from the ACC that have 4 wins being in the conversation? That's crap. And don't get me started on a team from any other conference having a losing record in conference play and being worthy. I'd much rather see a conference like the Big South get an at-large than see crap from a power conference team make it. I can make a better argument for both Winthrop and UNC Asheville than I can for friggin' Clemson or Seton Hall or Iowa (or CU, if the season ended today).