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Colorado v UCLA - October 28, 2023 - 5.30pm MT, ABC

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hawg1 said:
Favorites, not ATS.

Their data says 77 percent FBS vs FBS. Another study says 90 percent of P5 games. Nik says Vegas MLs are correct 80 percent of time.

My question is what you do t like about FPI? Are there public ally available models you respect.

Thanks.
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Picking favorites in college football does not make for a good model. A good model predicts game outcomes.

What I don’t like about the FPI is that it does not accurately predict game outcomes with sufficient frequency.

There are not any good free models because sports betting is too profitable to be free.
 
H.E. Pennypacker said:
Doesn't sound like we'll see Mitchell.

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1st guy I'm aware of who is screwing up off-field. One game he dresses, but doesn't play. Next game he doesn't dress. he's moving the wrong direction. (I have absolutely zero idea what's wrong in his situation, but I wondered about 80 teenagers coming to a legal MMJ state.)

"Linebacker Juwan Mitchell also hasn’t played the last two games, but for a different reason.
CU’s leading tackler through five games, Mitchell has apparently been disciplined by the coaching staff for some sort of violation. He was in uniform for CU’s game at Arizona State on Oct. 7, but didn’t play, and wasn’t in uniform for the Buffs’ last game, Oct. 13 against Stanford.

Asked about Mitchell’s status, Sanders said, “He has to get it together off the field. Not just on the field, but off the field. That’s it.”
 
cu3x said:
1st guy I'm aware of who is screwing up off-field. One game he dresses, but doesn't play. Next game he doesn't dress. he's moving the wrong direction. (I have absolutely zero idea what's wrong in his situation, but I wondered about 80 teenagers coming to a legal MMJ state.)

"Linebacker Juwan Mitchell also hasn’t played the last two games, but for a different reason.
CU’s leading tackler through five games, Mitchell has apparently been disciplined by the coaching staff for some sort of violation. He was in uniform for CU’s game at Arizona State on Oct. 7, but didn’t play, and wasn’t in uniform for the Buffs’ last game, Oct. 13 against Stanford.

Asked about Mitchell’s status, Sanders said, “He has to get it together off the field. Not just on the field, but off the field. That’s it.”
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I’m guessing that he just checked out after only a few games? That stinks because after only playing a few games, and becoming the leading tackler on the team, it shows what potential is there.

Hopefully there is a revelation and he can get back on the field soon.
 
You always have a chance with a QB like Shedeur, but what we saw in that Stanford game was a combination of a lot of issues with this team coming all together. Those issues aren't all of a sudden going away. My hope is that we can figure out a starting unit on the o-line (highly doubtful) that gives Shedeur his best chance at success, or something schematically changing on defense.
 
patebuff said:
You always have a chance with a QB like Shedeur, but what we saw in that Stanford game was a combination of a lot of issues with this team coming all together. Those issues aren't all of a sudden going away. My hope is that we can figure out a starting unit on the o-line (highly doubtful) that gives Shedeur his best chance at success, or something schematically changing on defense.
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Savion coming back at RT will help a bit (assuming it happens).

We need to plug whoever started for him at Stanford in at guard because at least he was servicable.
 
While realizing that average yardage numbers alone can sometimes tell an incomplete story:

UCLA has averaged 464.4 ypg on offense (17th in the nation)
UCLA has averaged 282.6 ypg on defense (11th in the nation)

You'd think that the Bruins would be a more dominant team than they've been. Is it possible that the Buffs can be competitive in this game? Maybe so.....(?)
 
PAHIBuff said:
While realizing that average yardage numbers alone can sometimes tell an incomplete story:

UCLA has averaged 464.4 ypg on offense (17th in the nation)
UCLA has averaged 282.6 ypg on defense (11th in the nation)

You'd think that the Bruins would be a more dominant team than they've been. Is it possible that the Buffs can be competitive in this game? Maybe so.....(?)
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looking forward to seeing what the coaches, especially on D, did with a bye week.
 
HockeyBuff said:
looking forward to seeing what the coaches, especially on D, did with a bye week.
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Schitts Creek Reaction GIF by CBC
 
HockeyBuff said:
Love this reaction. I hope we see a performance like we did against TCU. If not, hopefully Prime spent the week thinking of who his new DC could be.
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Perhaps you didn't understand my reaction. I'm a little less excited/optimistic than you regarding a defensive adjustments...
 
Uncle Ken said:
Perhaps you didn't understand my reaction. I'm a little less excited/optimistic than you regarding a defensive adjustments...
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Oh no. I completely understood. I think your reaction is the more realistic one. I have wishful thinking the defense will be better. It seems to me we have a coaching or scheme problem on D, rather than a player problem. But it’s the trauma of being a Buff fan to have watched so many dismal defenses. Some were really really bad. This one takes me a long way back to sitting in Folsom and watching UCLA convert on 3rd and 34 or something while the buffs couldn’t covert 3rd and inches on O.
 
HockeyBuff said:
Oh no. I completely understood. I think your reaction is the more realistic one. I have wishful thinking the defense will be better. It seems to me we have a coaching or scheme problem on D, rather than a player problem. But it’s the trauma of being a Buff fan to have watched so many dismal defenses. Some were really really bad. This one takes me a long way back to sitting in Folsom and watching UCLA convert on 3rd and 34 or something while the buffs couldn’t covert 3rd and inches on O.
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I miss Leavitt, tbh.
 
HockeyBuff said:
Love this reaction. I hope we see a performance like we did against TCU. If not, hopefully Prime spent the week thinking of who his new DC could be.
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They gave up 42 points to TCU, fwiw. ASU and Nebraska are the only games where the defense played reasonably well and Nebraska fumbled like 4 snaps, which is mostly why they looked good in that one.

The defense needs to sell out to stop the run and force the underwhelming and revolving door at QB beat them through the air. If they do that, I think Hunter is a difference maker and the defense will keep them in the game.
 
Buffnik said:
Also Tumpkin.
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Would love to have that Defense again. Coupled with an offense akin to Lewis’s but without the RPO’s (that’s not really possible maybe if you are trying to go lightning speed, and I should probably withhold judgement till I see it with a solid OL).
 
HockeyBuff said:
Love this reaction. I hope we see a performance like we did against TCU. If not, hopefully Prime spent the week thinking of who his new DC could be.
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Ken Norton? 😂 maybe…if he figures out the B1G will turn UCLA into a full on mid-tier team for the ceiling…he sees the golden opportunity in Boulder and the BigXII? Recruits are chomping, Prime is getting exposure…sounds like an “all coming up Milhouse” situation to me!
 
Birch1 said:
Would love to have that Defense again. Coupled with an offense akin to Lewis’s but without the RPO’s (that’s not really possible maybe if you are trying to go lightning speed, and I should probably withhold judgement till I see it with a solid OL).
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What's wrong with RPOs?
 
Corey Trevorson said:
What's wrong with RPOs?
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Just a personal dislike. The running backs get no momentum on their runs, they don't know if they are going to get the ball or not until the last moment, the qb loses a split second on every RPO pass play as he has to fake it to the running back (obviously this is not great with our OL). It just doesn't seem right for Shedeur OR McCaskill OR our OL, in my opinion. Shedeur is the most sacked quarterback in college football for a reason (it's not just that we have a terrible OL, it's the system coupled with Shedeur's skills and our OL's lackluster talent). It's also kind of gimicky.

But I admit I could be completely wrong. It's just the vibe I'm getting from the offense. Has anyone analyzed on which playcalls our sacks are coming on? Could be it's not even happening on the RPOs.
 
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