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Conference Auto-Bid & Bubble Watch

Robert Sorell said:
My initial feeling is that NET (perhaps intentionally) will incentivize stronger OOC scheduling, to include going on the road against a quality team.

Maybe this will help us in being able to schedule home and home series with other quality teams that tend to fall in the Quad 1/Quad 2 grouping.
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I couldn't immediately find it, but I think it was Nik that a year or two ago had a post noting how the game has changed, likely as a result of the RPI ranking. Most of the really big non-conference matchups are played at neutral sites, often in front of empty crowds (e.g. Duke/Kentucky this year).

I hope the NET can change that, but I suspect they'll have to be more transparent with the formula for that to happen.
 
hokiehead said:
I couldn't immediately find it, but I think it was Nik that a year or two ago had a post noting how the game has changed, likely as a result of the RPI ranking. Most of the really big non-conference matchups are played at neutral sites, often in front of empty crowds (e.g. Duke/Kentucky this year).

I hope the NET can change that, but I suspect they'll have to be more transparent with the formula for that to happen.
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Yeah, the Team Value Index is a huge black box as are relative weights for the components, the rest of it is pretty straightforward though.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Yeah, the Team Value Index is a huge black box as are relative weights for the components, the rest of it is pretty straightforward though.
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unless I missed it, they also don't give any information regarding relative weights of those five attributes.
 
Maybe even juicier than the debate on whether a 16-16 UT should be in the Dance, we have the story lines of the Florida-LSU game.

If LSU wins, Florida finishes at 18-15 with a NET somewhere around the #32 where they entered the day. Their record is just going to add to the discussion led by Texas but including UF and Indiana.

But the topper is that LSU's coach is now suspended after the FBI investigation recorded phone call about buying a recruit. LSU won the SEC regular season. If LSU goes on to win the SEC tourney, they'll be at 29-5 with a top 10 NET while having swept the titles of the 2nd best conference this year. That's the resume of a #1 seed in the Dance. And it would be a #1 seed that will likely end up having its wins from this season vacated once this all shakes out from the investigation in the next few years. What will the committee do? Go solely by whether LSU is deserving or worry about the optics & politics of the situation?
 
Interesting turn of events in the A-10. They looked like a 1-bid league this year.

But #1 seed VCU just lost to #8 seed Rhode Island. VCU should still make the tourney (25-6 with the #31 NET entering today). Looks like someone's bubble just busted.
 
hokiehead said:
unless I missed it, they also don't give any information regarding relative weights of those five attributes.
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Correct, I think I confused my wording above.

I'm guessing they want to keep some secrets so they can tinker to get the results that they want without tipping their hand about what they are trying to force. I don't necessarily think there's anything wrong with that, the selection committee should have an agenda. There are reasonable arguments to be had about what that agenda should be. For my money, better non-conference matchups and viable mid-major conferences are good for the sport, and the selection committee should reward accordingly.

To my eyes, the efficiency scores are pretty much a proxy for margin of victory, so I think the including margin of victory 5th and capping it at 10 points is more about marketing the idea that they prefer not to have teams run up the score.
 
Buffnik said:
Interesting turn of events in the A-10. They looked like a 1-bid league this year.

But #1 seed VCU just lost to #8 seed Rhode Island. VCU should still make the tourney (25-6 with the #31 NET entering today). Looks like someone's bubble just busted.
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Arizona State’s, because we’re winning it all.
 
Ohio State just lost to Michigan State.

Entered day as #55 NET.
Finished season at 19-14.
Went 8-12 in Big Ten this year (then 1-1 in tourney, beating Indiana).

Is that a tourney resume?
 
There are two teams I am not taking in the first round. St. Johns and LSU. What the hell were LSU doing at the end there.

Danny and UCONN have a serious rebuilding deal on their hands in that weird conference they shouldn't be in. I am really not sure they ever get it back to the old days. Football program is a disaster too.

Seton Hall are looking good and even if they lose tonight i think they can make a run. Myles Powell is one hell of a player.
 
Nebraska lost to Wisconsin to finish the year 18-16. Entered the day at #49 NET so could still be in the NIT.
 
upload_2019-3-15_18-1-50.png

upload_2019-3-15_18-3-8.png


We really diverge from the Huskers on NET/RPI

We really hurt from having so few Tier 1/2 games and only being 4-6 there. I'm not sure if 4-6 in Tier1/2 is better or worse than being 7-13. NET seems to really think 7-13 is much better.
 
Da Lama said:
We'd beat the Nubs by 10 right now. EOS.
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Of what story?

They just beat a top 25 team on a neutral court, if we don't do the same to a top 30ish Washington team, the selection committees have a leg to stand on to put them ahead of us.

Don't confuse that with me thinking that they're better, but it's hard to argue that one is far better than the other on paper.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Of what story?

They just beat a top 25 team on a neutral court, if we don't do the same to a top 30ish Washington team, the selection committees have a leg to stand on to put them ahead of us.

Don't confuse that with me thinking that they're better, but it's hard to argue that one is far better than the other on paper.
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Washington is better than Maryland, and Wisconsin, and many other Big Ten teams.
 
Medford M. said:
Washington is better than Maryland, and Wisconsin, and many other Big Ten teams.
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Minnesota finished 7th in the Big Ten, and beat Washington on a neutral court.

Washington's best win is possibly beating us in Boulder.

Washington does not have a resume that competes with Wisconsin or Maryland.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Here's an infographic on how NET is calculated.

CU dropping after the Cal win likely has a lot to do with the Net Efficiency as well, that number had to slide down a bit for that narrow, sloppy win.

Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK.jpg:large


Also, read the bottom, the quadrant/tier system is used for team info sheets. The NET is really about sorting teams into bins, more than it is about worrying about teams moving from #68 to #72 in the rankings.
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I’m sure glad the NBA doesn’t have this method to pick its playoff teams!
 
Robert Sorell said:
Minnesota finished 7th in the Big Ten, and beat Washington on a neutral court.

Washington's best win is possibly beating us in Boulder.

Washington does not have a resume that competes with Wisconsin or Maryland.
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Washington would most definitely run with Wisconsin and probably beat Maryland. And Minnesota beating Washington on a last second shot in game 5 means jackall at this point in the season. Washington beats the Gophers by double digits at this point.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Minnesota finished 7th in the Big Ten, and beat Washington on a neutral court.

Washington's best win is possibly beating us in Boulder.

Washington does not have a resume that competes with Wisconsin or Maryland.
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There's a reason Purdue suddenly looked amazing once conference play started...the competition got worse.
 
Da Lama said:
Washington would most definitely run with Wisconsin and probably beat Maryland. And Minnesota beating Washington on a last second shot in game 5 means jackall at this point in the season. Washington beats the Gophers by double digits at this point.
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I'm talking about resumes here, like the selection committee will be doing.

If Washington gets a higher seed than Purdue, Wisconsin, or Maryland, I will not be the only person who is completely surprised.
 
Hopefully Duke/UNC stays close. A tight finish to that game would be a nice little bit of dessert after the most important game of the night.
 
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