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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

MiamiBuffs said:
Its a trade school for slot machine technicians and hotel cleaners.

But its more importantly in a glitzy destination big metro thats growing and thats what the TV gods care about.
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That was true. And it was a commuter school for the most part. But they built a medical school and ramped up STEM majors, have been rated as an R1 for research intensity for a bit now.
 
Liver said:
oregon is an AAU school.

also, more fundamentally, i would rather be in a western centric conference and try to build up the new additions than join a conference that is proud of the academic and athletic tradition of ucinn, wvu, ucf, and kjuco state.

they may be not academically up to snuff but at least they are in our footprint.

if we can't into the big right now (which now has a western presence and will want a larger one over time) then let's build something fun and that makes sense.

the b12 strategy has been simple... take everyone that can't get into the p2 and has aspirations to do so and doesn't have a better option right now. if we are going to do a place holder conference, at least keep it in the west.

in the next round of shuffling, there is still going to be little to no chance that a school like kjuco state or washington state or boise state makes the cut in any scenario.
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Fork in the road. Another one coming. We don’t commit to anything other than the next 5-7 years. It’s so easy even a caveman could do it.

caveman geico GIF
 
Buffnik said:
Of course not. Different levels of the same profile. Mostly, I look at adding UNLV today as a bit ahead of where ASU was when added in 1978.
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If we go down this road w/ UNLV and BSU I get it. It’s unlikely but I see the rationale. They don’t all need to be highly competitive academic schools. We have enough of those.
 
Big Jim said:
Typical overreach. BSU and UNLV are not "adds" to the Pac-12.

94.82% of all CU alums have no interest in moving to the B12. If it does happen, then get used to seeing CU alums commonly pinching their noses when in the vicinity of the other B12 schools as being a whore doesn't mean the whore needs to accept or enjoy the smell.
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Prove it! And 68.3465% think you are di** head! You are really such a snob? Most of the people I know want to get the Fvck out!!
 
skibum said:
C'mon man, you can do better. There are literally three airports with multiple daily direct flights to/from LA that are closer to college park than DIA is to Boulder.

And "no direct flights to Newark." seriously? Lmao.

State College, PA.
Bloomington, IN
Ames, IA
Lincoln, NE
East Lansing, MI
Etc,
Etc

are all obvious examples to your point, but somehow you managed to pick two of the three schools with the easiest/most direct flight connections to/from nearly anywhere in the country...
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My point was more about hassle and Fatigue due to time distance cost and 4 time zones separation. Id imagine that Penn St or Maryland will find the 7pm tipoff in LA (11pm east) to be a tiring experience. Ill assume the B1G schedulers will do the nice thing and set it up so you can play SC and UCLA in the same trip. Typically there is 2 to 4 days between each MBB/WBB games.

Looking at Google Flights bewtween State College and LAX there are two 1 stop flights (ORD) and the rest are 2 stops.
 
Liver said:
assuming we stay, i don't hate this scenario.

p14 and the pac owns the western market (less LA of course) and has a foothold in dallas.

this stacks us up really well for the next round of shuffling too. there will be pressure as this goes on to rationalize the conference footprints by geography and this sets the table.

unlv and boise aren't great peer schools but they are ****ing ivy league compared to west virginia and other truck stop 12 schools.

own the west and see what happens next is a pretty ****ing good strategy if the pac is going to survive.
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UNLV and Boise State are JUCOs compared to the B12 schools.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
My point was more about hassle and Fatigue due to time distance cost and 4 time zones separation. Id imagine that Penn St or Maryland will find the 7pm tipoff in LA (11pm east) to be a tiring experience. Ill assume the B1G schedulers will do the nice thing and set it up so you can play SC and UCLA in the same trip. Typically there is 2 to 4 days between each MBB/WBB games.

Looking at Google Flights bewtween State College and LAX there are two 1 stop flights (ORD) and the rest are 2 stops.
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Iirc, in the NFL there's a pretty strong correlation between traveling from PTZ to ETZ and a poorer than expected game result. It's not as bad traveling the other direction for a game. I'd assume that rule of thumb carries over to other sports.
 
BlackNGold said:
I know some posters keep complaining about the fact that streaming and linear programming is discussed in this thread but, IMO, that is the crux of this entire thread. Teams jumping conferences is all about money and brand exposure and both of those come from your media deals. And media revenues are at a giant cross roads.

Someone posted a graphic about the amount of time people spend watching streaming, cable, broadcast, etc. but they did not post an important part of that article and that is not many are really making money streaming (I am defining streaming as a revenue model with direct to subscriber relationship). ESPN has been offsetting loses of cable subscribers by raising their carriage fee amount but they realize that is not sustainable.

Right now the fact is that media companies are trying to figure out how to pivot in this new consumer media paradigm. The Big 12 got a media deal just as this was coming the consciousness of the media companies and I think they benefited by a reaction to ESPN being locked out of the Big 10 contract. Now the media companies are looking at ways to cut cost, no make more commitments.

Where am I going with this - the money well for the PAC12 media deal is starting to run dry and trying to share that money with more G5 schools is pure insanity. I would like someone to tell me how Boise State adds anything revenue wise to a media contract.

Sports have been a golden goose laying golden eggs with the media but lately the eggs have been more silver than gold. I don't believe the FAST model will be the answer because that was the model that got blown out of the water in the days of yesteryear. ESPN could offer huge media rights contracts because of the carriage fees they were collecting.

I think in 3-5 years the media companies are going to figure out a revenue model for this. What is the big unknown is can the subscription fees off-set the previous carriage fees? If the answer is no then the revenue pie is smaller.

Right now because of the money, I see it to be about a 70% chance CU ends up in the Big 12. No one seems to be talking about the fact that in less than a year the PAC12 will not have a media contract which is not an attractive proposition. As that deadline approaches the PAC12's negotiating position weakens, IMO.

To your point of losing recruits, I wonder how much that has to do to the lack of future exposure for these athletes. Several years ago USC was complaining about the PAC12 network and lack of exposure specifically lamenting the lost of top California recruits like Bryce Young to other conferences. This was a key in them leaving the PAC (and of course money). If I was recruiting against a PAC school I would point out that you may never play on TV because they don't have a contract. I don't think expansion with G5 schools is the answer.
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☝️There are a lot of good points in this post.

There is a lot of unknown right now. The death of carriage fees has to lead to a smaller media rights pie imho because pure Sports Streaming will be expensive to hold the current dollar obligations. And simply put not everyone will sign up. When you go streaming you lose exposure to the masses behind the Streaming pay wall. You might get exposure by choosing to be on broadcast but you will take in less money as a conference Because its free and ad supported.

tl;dr, the business model for Tv is changing. eventually its going to come down to exposure OR money.


So lets say five years down the road the revenue does shrink pretty big do we want to be in the Pac12 or the BigXII with a lot less money?
 
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MiamiBuffs said:
It was an example of another sport that is struggling with flying coach toget to their games. There are more sports then football at USC and UCLA. While football will charter a plane the small sports will fly commercial. So several low revenue sports will fly from L.A. to State College, Newark, and College Park, et al., that are both far and dont have a direct flight. My suspicion is that will be a grind compared to playing your in conference games in the PST or MST.

Its essentially my hot take that over the long term USC and UCLA will be broadly unhappy with their choice as they are lost in a big conference and eliminated from the CFP by tOSU or UM year in and year out
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Yeah, I guess my confusion was the bball team was in bum**** Connecticut. That’s not an option for B1G. Flying from LA to Newark, DC, seems less painful than Madison to Newark.
And going from any small B1G town to another seems like as much of a PITA as going from LA to any of them.
 
Iowa State fan here...I enjoy reading different fan base forums during this realignment stuff. It's especially nice to not feel like my team is on the **** end of it for once. Very entertaining discussion here. The delusions of some people are amazing, but a mostly grounded discussion.

1) CU is not getting a BIG invite. UNC, Virginia, Miami, Oregon, Washington would all be ahead of you guys. Even if Sanders brings you back, I don't see that happening. I think the SEC is also out of the question (they aren't looking for Union states).

2) How can some of you view your move the the PAC 12 positively? Haven't you missed out on something like $50-60 million in revenue over that time? that, on top of the PAC 12's leadership failures (Larry Scott, Comcast overpayments, PAC 12 network, SF offices, media deal fiasco) I'm having a real heard time seeing the positives. Is getting into California really worth all that?

3) Wilner and (particularly) Canzano are the biggest sunshine pumpers for your league. I can't believe they still put out half of the stuff they do. Tony Altimore is a horse's ass.

4) I'm failing to see how this doesn't result in CU and AZ moving to the Big XII. If the PAC had a deal I feel like they'd be screaming it from the mountaintops. I feel like Kliavkoff is intentionally delaying so it makes it harder for schools to move. Personally, I'd love to have you guys back, and don't understand the animosity form some fans here towards the Big XII. This year maybe the exception (PAC 12 looks pretty good), but generally I'd say you're facing better competition most years in the Big XII with fans who care. I'm a beer and brat kind of guy and the wine and cheese crowd is insufferable to me. To each their own I suppose.

My best buddy when I was a kid in NE was a CU fan, so we had a lot of fun with our personal rivalry, and hating on Nebraska. I also went to a couple basketball games in Boulder in the early 2000s...Had fun even though ISU lost both times (CU and OU were the only Big XII teams to beat them in 2000). Hope for soem more opportunities to travel out there, and go Cyclones!

Just for fun since you guys did leave:
no-crawlingback.gif
 
Victory said:


Interesting map from a realignment POV. Remaining Pac-12 footprint + western expansion candidates are growing.
Click to expand...

By percentage, fastest growing part of the country is the west. But starting from such a lower population baseline that it's still a long-term bet. If you look up predictive analysis of what the US population will look at in 2050 or 2060, the western metros and states are your best long-term investment.
 
Dr Ship said:
Iowa State fan here...I enjoy reading different fan base forums during this realignment stuff. It's especially nice to not feel like my team is on the **** end of it for once. Very entertaining discussion here. The delusions of some people are amazing, but a mostly grounded discussion.

1) CU is not getting a BIG invite. UNC, Virginia, Miami, Oregon, Washington would all be ahead of you guys. Even if Sanders brings you back, I don't see that happening. I think the SEC is also out of the question (they aren't looking for Union states).

2) How can some of you view your move the the PAC 12 positively? Haven't you missed out on something like $50-60 million in revenue over that time? that, on top of the PAC 12's leadership failures (Larry Scott, Comcast overpayments, PAC 12 network, SF offices, media deal fiasco) I'm having a real heard time seeing the positives. Is getting into California really worth all that?

3) Wilner and (particularly) Canzano are the biggest sunshine pumpers for your league. I can't believe they still put out half of the stuff they do. Tony Altimore is a horse's ass.

4) I'm failing to see how this doesn't result in CU and AZ moving to the Big XII. If the PAC had a deal I feel like they'd be screaming it from the mountaintops. I feel like Kliavkoff is intentionally delaying so it makes it harder for schools to move. Personally, I'd love to have you guys back, and don't understand the animosity form some fans here towards the Big XII. This year maybe the exception (PAC 12 looks pretty good), but generally I'd say you're facing better competition most years in the Big XII with fans who care. I'm a beer and brat kind of guy and the wine and cheese crowd is insufferable to me. To each their own I suppose.

My best buddy when I was a kid in NE was a CU fan, so we had a lot of fun with our personal rivalry, and hating on Nebraska. I also went to a couple basketball games in Boulder in the early 2000s...Had fun even though ISU lost both times (CU and OU were the only Big XII teams to beat them in 2000). Hope for soem more opportunities to travel out there, and go Cyclones!

Just for fun since you guys did leave:
no-crawlingback.gif
Click to expand...
Great insights. Check back when ISU wins 9 games in the regular season. It has never happened. Not surprising but easily the most pathetic and embarrassing stat in the history of organized sports.
 
Dr Ship said:
Iowa State fan here...I enjoy reading different fan base forums during this realignment stuff. It's especially nice to not feel like my team is on the **** end of it for once. Very entertaining discussion here. The delusions of some people are amazing, but a mostly grounded discussion.

1) CU is not getting a BIG invite. UNC, Virginia, Miami, Oregon, Washington would all be ahead of you guys. Even if Sanders brings you back, I don't see that happening. I think the SEC is also out of the question (they aren't looking for Union states).

2) How can some of you view your move the the PAC 12 positively? Haven't you missed out on something like $50-60 million in revenue over that time? that, on top of the PAC 12's leadership failures (Larry Scott, Comcast overpayments, PAC 12 network, SF offices, media deal fiasco) I'm having a real heard time seeing the positives. Is getting into California really worth all that?

3) Wilner and (particularly) Canzano are the biggest sunshine pumpers for your league. I can't believe they still put out half of the stuff they do. Tony Altimore is a horse's ass.

4) I'm failing to see how this doesn't result in CU and AZ moving to the Big XII. If the PAC had a deal I feel like they'd be screaming it from the mountaintops. I feel like Kliavkoff is intentionally delaying so it makes it harder for schools to move. Personally, I'd love to have you guys back, and don't understand the animosity form some fans here towards the Big XII. This year maybe the exception (PAC 12 looks pretty good), but generally I'd say you're facing better competition most years in the Big XII with fans who care. I'm a beer and brat kind of guy and the wine and cheese crowd is insufferable to me. To each their own I suppose.

My best buddy when I was a kid in NE was a CU fan, so we had a lot of fun with our personal rivalry, and hating on Nebraska. I also went to a couple basketball games in Boulder in the early 2000s...Had fun even though ISU lost both times (CU and OU were the only Big XII teams to beat them in 2000). Hope for soem more opportunities to travel out there, and go Cyclones!

Just for fun since you guys did leave:
no-crawlingback.gif
Click to expand...
None of us ever had a problem with the Clones.

I think part of the problem a lot of us have is that the Big 8 schools that CU had the most heat with were NU, OU and MU. They're gone, so it doesn't feel like there's much to go back to.

As a look forward, by far the most out-of-state students and alums are from CA. That connection in the Pac-12 transformed CU fundraising and made the facilities project happen. Fwiw, IL is #2 for us and TX is #3.

At the end of the day, we're geographically isolated from both the Pac-12 and Big 12 except by flight. Pac-12 is better for most of those of us who like to travel to games. Also, a much higher percentage of Pac-12 institutions are similar culturally and academically to CU than Big 12 schools, so it's a more natural fit that way.

Given all that, the only way CU leaves for the Big 12 is if the numbers make it impossible to do otherwise.

As far as hopes for a future B1G invite, I think that hinges on whether they go all the way to 24. At 20, CU doesn't make it. At 24, CU probably does considering CO & Denver population, academic fit, the media value of the NU rivalry, and how many B1G students and alums their current members pull from our state & metro. (Of course, even getting in at 24 depends on playing football like a Top 30 all-time program again.)
 
Hank said:
How do you feel about the Crooked Stave Nightmare on Brett and Humboldt Fog crowd?
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Nightmare on Brett I would try, although I usually avoid sours. Tend to drink bourbon the most. Goat cheese is disgusting and smells like the animal it came from.
 
Buffnik said:
None of us ever had a problem with the Clones.

I think part of the problem a lot of us have is that the Big 8 schools that CU had the most heat with were NU, OU and MU. They're gone, so it doesn't feel like there's much to go back to.

As a look forward, by far the most out-of-state students and alums are from CA. That connection in the Pac-12 transformed CU fundraising and made the facilities project happen. Fwiw, IL is #2 for us and TX is #3.

At the end of the day, we're geographically isolated from both the Pac-12 and Big 12 except by flight. Pac-12 is better for most of those of us who like to travel to games. Also, a much higher percentage of Pac-12 institutions are similar culturally and academically to CU than Big 12 schools, so it's a more natural fit that way.

Given all that, the only way CU leaves for the Big 12 is if the numbers make it impossible to do otherwise.

As far as hopes for a future B1G invite, I think that hinges on whether they go all the way to 24. At 20, CU doesn't make it. At 24, CU probably does considering CO & Denver population, academic fit, the media value of the NU rivalry, and how many B1G students and alums their current members pull from our state & metro. (Of course, even getting in at 24 depends on playing football like a Top 30 all-time program again.)
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Thank you for the response. I do think the numbers will force your hand. The longer this drags on, the worse I feel about it for the PAC 12. To scratch the Big XII's number I think you're going to be heavily on streaming. I don't think that's a bad thing; it's what I thought the Big XII was going to have to do after OuT left, and streaming will be the future. But school administrators tend not to think like that. I think they'll want more linear and it will probably settle between $20-25 million. Fitting with the thread title, I'm just talking out my ass here.

A lot of this will probably be irrelevant in a few years when colleges start treating student athletes as employees. That's when things will separate into a NFL light and something that (hopefully) resembles traditional CFB.

I miss the Big 8. I hope the Big XII will be more functional now that Texas is gone. I think it's going to be a real fun league to watch in football, and especially basketball.
 
Fred 2 said:
Most of the people I know want to get the Fvck out!!
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Did you ever consider the possibility that your circle of friends is not representative of the entire alumni group and/or fan base?

"Most people I know" is a terrible basis on which to draw conclusions about a very large and diverse population of people.

I'm pretty sure the alumni of pac 12 universities know this, which is why they generally don't engage in that particular illogical rhetorical structure.

OTOH, big 8 alumni...
 
Dr Ship said:
Iowa State fan here...I enjoy reading different fan base forums during this realignment stuff. It's especially nice to not feel like my team is on the **** end of it for once. Very entertaining discussion here. The delusions of some people are amazing, but a mostly grounded discussion.

1) CU is not getting a BIG invite. UNC, Virginia, Miami, Oregon, Washington would all be ahead of you guys. Even if Sanders brings you back, I don't see that happening. I think the SEC is also out of the question (they aren't looking for Union states).

2) How can some of you view your move the the PAC 12 positively? Haven't you missed out on something like $50-60 million in revenue over that time? that, on top of the PAC 12's leadership failures (Larry Scott, Comcast overpayments, PAC 12 network, SF offices, media deal fiasco) I'm having a real heard time seeing the positives. Is getting into California really worth all that?

3) Wilner and (particularly) Canzano are the biggest sunshine pumpers for your league. I can't believe they still put out half of the stuff they do. Tony Altimore is a horse's ass.

4) I'm failing to see how this doesn't result in CU and AZ moving to the Big XII. If the PAC had a deal I feel like they'd be screaming it from the mountaintops. I feel like Kliavkoff is intentionally delaying so it makes it harder for schools to move. Personally, I'd love to have you guys back, and don't understand the animosity form some fans here towards the Big XII. This year maybe the exception (PAC 12 looks pretty good), but generally I'd say you're facing better competition most years in the Big XII with fans who care. I'm a beer and brat kind of guy and the wine and cheese crowd is insufferable to me. To each their own I suppose.

My best buddy when I was a kid in NE was a CU fan, so we had a lot of fun with our personal rivalry, and hating on Nebraska. I also went to a couple basketball games in Boulder in the early 2000s...Had fun even though ISU lost both times (CU and OU were the only Big XII teams to beat them in 2000). Hope for soem more opportunities to travel out there, and go Cyclones!

Just for fun since you guys did leave:
no-crawlingback.gif
Click to expand...
KU and ISU have more in common with the Pac12 than with the meth-trailer 12. Maybe you should join us, instead of the other way round.
 
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