I 100% disagree. We spent the last 2 decades purposely sitting at the kids table from an investment/commitment perspective and are now aghast at our position amongst the P5/4/3 whatever.
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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
We are not in disagreement. What you posted led in large part to what I posted.
Depends how old you are. What if Prime gets things rolling and the Buffs make the playoffs 2 or 3 times before the next round of
realignment? At least we have hope now. We were on the verge of dropping to FCS under KD. Things could change quickly.
What next round of realignment? There aren't going to be any chairs left in the next couple of weeks that don't have Notre Dame or Clemson's name on it.
Perhaps in 2030, when the B1G gets a new TV contract, they'll want to snap up every slightly desirable program not in a confederate state and expand to 32 teams. My dream is that they do that and CU is coming off a few 8 or 9 win seasons in the Big 12 and gets the call.
No offense meant bro. We’ve got a number of friends in HR, a few who have just moved there. At least you didn’t go to ASU…..
FSU, Quacks and AZ. That would make the Big 12 more relevant.
That’s code for, “it’s not you, it’s me”. Ducks have lost their caché.
I think it is, and probably has been, unlikely CU was ever going to the B1G or SEC. And given that, CU is tier 2. That is just the way it is. If CU shows out, who is to say they aren't promoted to tier 1 some day down the road?
Fox is more oriented towards a broadcast model thats ad supported. The Bay Area and Seattle are like #10 and #12 in size (value) so they help selling reach to advertisers. Those on top of already having #1, #2, and #3. CBS and NBC would also be happy about that.
anti-competitive, monopolistic, predatory, consolidation, etc.
we will see.
i don't think the big is going to bring in anyone at this time.
Lina Khan and the FTC couldn’t litigate the merger of two lemonade stands. That weak team should be the last worry of the B10
It is an unusual situation when mostly non-profit state and religious institutions are engaged in cutthroat capitalism to get the distribution deals and squeeze some competitors out of the market.
Let's just hope that we don't end up with politicians drawing up college athletic conferences like they decide on electoral maps and post office locations.
If things settle as you mention, will you ultimately have more fun as a fan dominating the Big 12 while Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, MSU, UCLA, etc all go 6-6ish every year? Likewise with Arkansas, OU, aTm, Ole Miss, Texas, etc?
If the two leagues remain completely separate, that’s what I envision. The worst of both worlds; one where there’s no true NFL model with all programs on equal footing, but too big for traditional powers to actually have consistent success.
IMO, the other option is for a true NFL model that would expand further and include CU
all the possible anti-trust stuff aside, i will be quite pleased ua asu and utah/other pac team join the b12 with us. that is a good conference, with some actual weight to it again.
that dude on twitter suggesting that wvu is in the mix for the big and fsu as well is flat out insane.
maybe the big takes 2-4 pac teams now but it will not be a clean breakup. at all.
i really do think uo, uw, stan, cal, and osu and wsu are most likely to stick together, take the streaming deal, do unequal rev sharing and bring in g5 fillers. 5 year deal or so.
i really also think that as much as clemson miami and fsu want to go to the sec, they won't break the gor in a way that makes any financial sense yet.
consolidation at this magnitude leaves a whole lot of football programs on the outside without a reasonable shot to compete.
if you all are correct and this all happens right now--- it will be the beginning of the end and a whole lot of finger pointing and worse.
that dude on twitter suggesting that wvu is in the mix for the big and fsu as well is flat out insane.
maybe the big takes 2-4 pac teams now but it will not be a clean breakup. at all.
i really do think uo, uw, stan, cal, and osu and wsu are most likely to stick together, take the streaming deal, do unequal rev sharing and bring in g5 fillers. 5 year deal or so.
i really also think that as much as clemson miami and fsu want to go to the sec, they won't break the gor in a way that makes any financial sense yet.
consolidation at this magnitude leaves a whole lot of football programs on the outside without a reasonable shot to compete.
if you all are correct and this all happens right now--- it will be the beginning of the end and a whole lot of finger pointing and worse.
I don't buy the "first mover" application to this concept. The idea that being the "first mover" to a--presently--speculative-streaming platform concept presumes that when the time comes for that speculative-platform to be sought-after, the "first mover" would have some latent priority benefit which would lead to a second-contract 2030 (?) windfall. In this world, especially in the streaming realm, it's essentially about estimated future viewership numbers, not about having a business-relationship history with a particular platform.
By 2030, every sports media company will--likely--have moved to full streaming service, and the only thing the "first mover" from 2023 got was the "first" subscription rate payment plateau, which got locked in before the streaming-only prices began to increase due to overall systemic advancement.
I think CU was smart to move to the BIG12 now, lock in real money based on the "old" system for the most part. When the new system is finally on-line, we can capitalize and shift into it along with all the other major conferences.
I think you've underestimated the pull the networks/streaming platforms have going forward in deciding who they want in the leagues they broadcast. It's clear what they are doing here IMO in regards to realignment. The teams that don't belong at the big table will be eventually pushed out. e.g., Rutgers, Vandy et al.
The thing is its all about marquee matchups that drive high ratings. Ohio St v Oregon. Michigan v Washington. Penn St v USC. Etc. People will tune in for those matchups. I think Fox would pay to have some more of those.
There are also apparently a lot of Big Ten alums in California….
The Big Ten's National Footprint—and What It Says About Chicago
A reader with the pen name Frank the Tank is a frequent commenter on my blog and a guru about many aspects of universities and athletic conferences. Recently, he took some Wall Street Journal data and used it to create an extremely interesting analysis of the Big Ten. It’s highly recommended...
manhattan.institute
Like CU these schools get students and have alums from Cali.
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If none of Oregon/Washington/Utah/ASU/Cal/Stanford end up trapped in the sinking PAC or join the MWC…… my disappointment will be immeasurable. I feel bad for OSU/WSU and I just want to savor the demise of another P12 program
Our poly sci program needs to step up its gamein the event that Congress does get involved, this could become relevant. Looks like the Bay Area schools would have some advocates in the House (note this is 2021 data).
link
My god man it’s the American way! If you don’t like it sue! You might not get your way but you could get some $.
Remember when the USFL won its suit against the NFL and was awarded $1? That's what I'm thinking.
Edit: In all seriousness, there will be lawsuits and attempts to get them dropped by inviting someone into the club or paying a large amount to settle. I've been thinking that @Liver actually has a point about collusion and antitrust when it can be easily shown that many schools in the B1G & SEC are actually valued lower by media partners than other schools but earn more than them by virtue of nothing other than conference affiliation... and also demonstrated they participated in discussions and votes to weaken other conferences to harm those more valuable brands. I mean, raise your hand if you think that Washington State is a less successful football & basketball brand and lower performing media asset than Northwestern or Vanderbilt.
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Its pretty hard to see how several programs were not materially harmed by these moves. If Fox & Co didnt bid aggressively or fairly for Pac rights but then suddenly swoop in to add the cream of the leftovers when the conference collapses …. Someone might have a case. Hopefully someone took good notes on their initial P12 negotiations.
If Fox deny pro rata rights to the remaining P12 refugees while paying UW OU Cal Stan more…. That seems like bad faith too.
Its a monopoly. An exclusive club.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
This is basically the same thing they tried to do with the P12N IMO. I don't see it working. Was interesting listening to Canzano yesterday for a bit. Kind of been enjoying watching him flail. His audience doesn't like this at all. He had three calls (might have even been consecutive) from Duck fans who flat told him they weren't subscribing. Saw my dad today. Asked him about the Pac deal. He said I would not buy a product like that.
We're heading towards an all streaming model-but let's be honest.......that's coming when my generation (I turn 37 at the end of the month) retires, and this entire baby boomer generation kind of dies off. Its not the immediate future in my view.
For Xers and older, streaming mostly means something that looks like cable or satellite (i.e., Sling) plus the Prime Video app that got comped with the club membership we bought to get free shipping from the Amazon online store, maybe a free music app like Pandora, and maybe another that gives us a lot of movies and shows everyone talks about like Netflix.
Remember when the USFL won its suit against the NFL and was awarded $1? That's what I'm thinking.
Edit: In all seriousness, there will be lawsuits and attempts to get them dropped by inviting someone into the club or paying a large amount to settle. I've been thinking that @Liver actually has a point about collusion and antitrust when it can be easily shown that many schools in the B1G & SEC are actually valued lower by media partners than other schools but earn more than them by virtue of nothing other than conference affiliation... and also demonstrated they participated in discussions and votes to weaken other conferences to harm those more valuable brands. I mean, raise your hand if you think that Washington State is a less successful football & basketball brand and lower performing media asset than Northwestern or Vanderbilt.
Do you remember when it was AT&T and all the Baby Bell companies under one roof? All it took was a court order and the monopoly was broken up.
You'd have thought that after that happened that cable wouldn't have ended up being protected monopolies based on which company got the contract to run the wire to homes in your area and then for them to be able to consolidate.
I don't see much rhyme or reason to what the courts and government choose to protect or destroy.
