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Expansion options for Pac-12 by media market

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Buffnik, Sep 18, 2011.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Mar 20, 2009
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    Current Pac-12
    Arizona: #67 Tucson
    Arizona State: #12 Phoenix
    Cal: #6 San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (w/ Stanford)
    Colorado: #17 Denver
    Oregon: #22 Portland (w/ Oregon State)
    Oregon State: #22 Portland (w/ Oregon)
    Stanford: #6 San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (w/ Cal)
    UCLA: #2 Los Angeles (w/ USC)
    USC: #2 Los Angeles (w/ UCLA)
    Utah: #32 Salt Lake City
    Washington: #13 Seattle/Tacoma
    Washington State: #75 Spokane

    Big 12 Options
    Baylor: #89 Waco/Killeen/Temple (w/ Texas A&M)
    Iowa State: #73 Des Moines/Ames
    Kansas: #31 Kansas City
    Kansas State: #136 Topeka
    Missouri: #21 St. Louis
    Oklahoma: #45 Oklahoma City (w/ Oklahoma State) plus reach into #5 Dallas/Ft Worth
    Oklahoma State: #45 Oklahoma City (w/ Oklahoma)
    Texas: #44 Austin plus reach into #5 Dallas/Ft Worth, #10 Houston and #37 San Antonio
    Texas Tech: #142 Lubbock

    Pretty clear here why no one is targeting Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State or Texas Tech.

    Other Western Options (only listing states the Pac-12 isn't in due to media focus on not repeating markets)
    Boise State: #113 Boise
    Hawaii: #72 Honolulu
    Nevada: #108 Reno/Sparks
    New Mexico: #46 Albuquerque/Santa Fe
    UNLV: #42 Las Vegas

    Issues here are that New Mexico and UNLV are the only markets that somewhat matter, but they're likely too small to make the addition of these programs increase the revenue for everyone else. Plus, the Pac-12 feels like it can get these markets with the teams it already has. This last point is a big reason why there's no interest in Fresno State (#55 Fresno/Visalia) or San Diego State (#28 San Diego).

    Basically, what this means is that the Pac-12 maxes out the media contracts it will get for the Mountain and Pacific regions so adding programs within the region doesn't add value. The value of going to 16 teams is if the 4 new teams add the Central time zone. That earlier game time gives the Pac an additional time slot for both football and basketball, thereby increasing the value of the conference for national media deals.

    If the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-14 or Pac-16, the only viable way to do it is through the central time zone. And in that time zone, taking a program outside of a top 50 media market is a problem (you'd like to be in the top 35). The real value to the Pac-12 would be if there was a way to avoid the politics of "tag along schools" and secure Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.

    It looks like the Pac-12 will take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as a package. If Kansas and Missouri both look elsewhere, that severely limits options. Throw in the potential of Texas looking to the ACC and its revenue sharing package/ESPN affiliations, and finding two more programs becomes very difficult. Maybe Texas Tech is considered since it would help secure New Mexico and would give the conference additive leverage in getting onto Texas cable systems when paired with OU and OSU.

    One outlier program that Larry Scott looked at is the University of Houston.

    Here's the resume:
    #10 media market
    3rd largest state university in Texas
    Top 50 American Research University (The Center for Measuring University Performance - 2010)
    Football: Heisman trophy winner (Andre Ware) and over 20 bowl appearances
    Basketball: 5 Final Fours and 19 NCAA Tourney appearances
    Other Sports: 16 golf national championships, 18 baseball NCAA tourneys and 2 College World Series appearances, plus a ton of Olympians and success in Track & Field, Swimming & Diving and Volleyball.
    2010 announcement that Robertson Stadium (32k seating) is being torn down and a new 40,000 seat stadium that is planned to be expandable to 50,000+ is being built.

    With OU/OSU/TTU/UH, the Pac-16 could end up in pretty good shape when the dust settles. It would also probably nip all the political issues in the bud in Texas if everyone but the parochial school (Baylor) found a superconference home and a state university moved up in status.

  2. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

    Sep 16, 2005
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    Great post.

    I still see no value in adding TTech though. What do they possibly bring to the conference? Nothing that I'm aware. I'm actually okay with Houston, but TTech? I'd just as soon take NM and I think they would be an over-reach...
  3. groundraider

    groundraider New Member

    Feb 5, 2011
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    The problem with this post is that it assumes that schools command their local markets.

    Texas Tech's alumni base is in Dallas, not Lubbock. Also, TTU gets higher ratings in Houston than UH.

    Kansas isnt drawing in the entire KC market. They're splitting it with KSU and Mizzou.

    Market size by population of nearby metros isnt as indicative as actual ncaa merchandise figures or tv ratings by market.

    *Sorry to start posting here with a post that looks like its a homer post, but Ive been lurking for a while.
    Buffnik likes this.
  4. Jerry

    Jerry Well-Known Member

    Nov 21, 2006
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    Stay at 12.
  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Mar 20, 2009
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    It's cool and a good post. Welcome.

    Definitely wasn't trying to paint the complete picture (national appeal is also huge). It was more a guide to what cable systems would be almost sure to carry a PAC-16 network. Team in the home market is pretty much a slam dunk. With Houston, you have to factor in that being a C-USA program severely limits the local viewing while TTU currently being in the Big 12 South gives it a major bump. It would be interesting to see the respective numbers from the SWC era when it was apples to apples.
  6. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

    Jul 8, 2005
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    Stay at 12. I don't give a damn about TTU, UT, KU, OU or any of the rest of that God forsaken shell of a conference. We don't need them. We have two time zones all to ourselves. What the hell do we need to go into a third for? It's nonsense - and it WILL hurt the conference, long term.
  7. buff4bcs1985

    buff4bcs1985 Hail to the King Club Member

    Feb 4, 2008
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    nik you are getting way too good at this
  8. boulder77

    boulder77 Certified Organic Club Member

    Jun 14, 2010
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    True .... but not the whole story.

    TV market scenarios are not based on how many people - let's take Houston for example - in Houston would watch UH on tv. They are based on how many tv sets are available in the market which *potentially* could watch the Pac-12 network. The name of the game is access to tv sets, and the larger the market, the better for negotiating a tv deal. One of the reasons that the Pac-12 wanted Colorado, was that it "brought" the #17 Denver tv market with it for the purposes of negotiating the new Pac-12 tv package. Fact is, Denver is a Broncos and Rockies town, full of transplants from somewhere else, and probably would have pretty weak ratings in relation to CU. However, all the Pac-12 wanted is access to all of those tvs - whether or not they would actually watch the Pac-12 network.

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