If the Pac-12 expanded thru G5 and you had to choose...

[Buffnik]

Media deals expiring after 2023-24, including the Pac-12. For expansion, media market looks like it's less important due to cord cutting. This means that the size & passion of the fan base is much more important. Lots of questions in the column about what could happen in 2023 -- football only members? 16-team super conferences? nothing? Makes the point that the Big 12 and Pac-12 are in the most precarious situations.

 

[BuffLuke80]

Didn't CU and Air Force have something happen in the past where there was some kind of problem between the two? I could've swore I read that on here. Couldn't search it because I don't remember the thread, had to be a few years ago when I read it. Any ideas?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Media deals expiring after 2023-24, including the Pac-12. For expansion, media market looks like it's less important due to cord cutting. This means that the size & passion of the fan base is much more important. Lots of questions in the column about what could happen in 2023 -- football only members? 16-team super conferences? nothing? Makes the point that the Big 12 and Pac-12 are in the most precarious situations.

This basically reiterates what most of us have been saying for a while: The Pac 12 is in a lot of trouble if they just stay with the status quo. Unfortunately, some on this board call bull**** on that statement, solely because there isn't a way to prove that any number of solutions would actually work, at this time. But make no mistake about it, the "haves" in the Pac 12 will leave the "have nots" behind, maybe just for football, to join a Superconference, or whatever else might take shape in 2023.

 

[onealcd]

Maybe, it is going to take a lot for USC, UCLA, UW, UO, Stanford, Cal Etc. to leave the Pac-12.

 

[pcbuff]

UNM just cut skiing, didn't they.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Maybe, it is going to take a lot for USC, UCLA, UW, UO, Stanford, Cal Etc. to leave the Pac-12.

A lot meaning the tens of millions of dollars, per school, revenue gap that is sure to get much larger over the next 6 years?

 

[onealcd]

A lot meaning the tens of millions of dollars, per school, revenue gap that is sure to get much larger over the next 6 years?

Yes because it would have to be after that anyways. So basically the long term prospects as of 2024 would have to be crazy different for those schools to leave the conference.

 

[Buffnik]

UNM just cut skiing, didn't they.

Back for one more year and then gone unless private funding can save it. https://www.abqjournal.com/1002058/unm-ski-team-is-back.html

It looks like NCAA Skiing is going to die.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Yes because it would have to be after that anyways. So basically the long term prospects as of 2024 would have to be crazy different for those schools to leave the conference.

Right, which they will be compared to the current status quo of the Pac 12.

 

[onealcd]

Right, which they will be compared to the current status quo of the Pac 12.

I think since all of the TV deals other than the ACC being signed at the same time will level the playing field quite a bit. It is not going to bring the Pac-12 up to the Big-10 but the conferences aren't going to get lowballed when there are other offers on the table.

 

[Buffnik]

I think since all of the TV deals other than the ACC being signed at the same time will level the playing field quite a bit. It is not going to bring the Pac-12 up to the Big-10 but the conferences aren't going to get lowballed when there are other offers on the table.

Pac-12 needs to make itself more attractive for this next deal.

I'm not 100% convinced that the way to do this is geographic expansion because state carriage by cable companies is the old model. I think our biggest problem with the Pac-12 is the lack of passion within our own markets, which are plenty populated.

We have the following media markets (Designated Market Area [DMA] Top 50 Ranking):
2. Los Angeles
6. San Francisco-Oak-San Jose
12. Seattle-Tacoma
13. Phoenix-Prescott
17. Denver
22. Portland
33. Salt Lake City

So the question becomes whether we maximize the fan passion and value within the Pac-12 landscape by trying to bring in top 50 DMAs like Sacramento, San Diego, Las Vegas and Albuquerque (or major brands within the footprint like Boise State and BYU)... or do we try to grow revenue by expanding to geography and changing the culture of the conference through schools in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Pac-12 needs to make itself more attractive for this next deal.

I'm not 100% convinced that the way to do this is geographic expansion because state carriage by cable companies is the old model. I think our biggest problem with the Pac-12 is the lack of passion within our own markets, which are plenty populated.

We have the following media markets (Designated Market Area [DMA] Top 50 Ranking):
2. Los Angeles
6. San Francisco-Oak-San Jose
12. Seattle-Tacoma
13. Phoenix-Prescott
17. Denver
22. Portland
33. Salt Lake City

So the question becomes whether we maximize the fan passion and value within the Pac-12 landscape by trying to bring in top 50 DMAs like Sacramento, San Diego, Las Vegas and Albuquerque (or major brands within the footprint like Boise State and BYU)... or do we try to grow revenue by expanding to geography and changing the culture of the conference through schools in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas?

Don't you think the "passion" expansion should also include Texas and OU? Or Houston, BYU, etc?? I don't see much passion being added from other California or Vegas teams. The football passion resides in the Midwest, and South (which includes Texas).

 

[Buffnik]

Don't you think the "passion" expansion should also include Texas and OU? Or Houston, BYU, etc?? I don't see much passion being added from other California or Vegas teams. The football passion resides in the Midwest, and South (which includes Texas).

I'm talking about raising the passion within the 12 programs we have. The more connected the region, the greater the passion.

Honestly, I'm wondering if with the move to streaming and a la carte models if it isn't bringing us back to the old days when regional rivalries drove conference affiliations. I could see that resulting in a total paradigm shift and CSU with either BYU or Utah State become the 13th & 14th teams. With so much fly over space between metros in these huge western states, it may call for the "2 teams per state" model to be revived for the conference.

Another positive is that if it was CSU and BYU it would secure the footprint from P5 intrusion. The Big 12 isn't going to expand into the MTZ without either of those schools.

 

[SINKRATZ]

I'm talking about raising the passion within the 12 programs we have. The more connected the region, the greater the passion.

Honestly, I'm wondering if with the move to streaming and a la carte models if it isn't bringing us back to the old days when regional rivalries drove conference affiliations. I could see that resulting in a total paradigm shift and CSU with either BYU or Utah State become the 13th & 14th teams. With so much fly over space between metros in these huge western states, it may call for the "2 teams per state" model to be revived for the conference.

Another positive is that if it was CSU and BYU it would secure the footprint from P5 intrusion. The Big 12 isn't going to expand into the MTZ without either of those schools.

Respectfully, I'm not sure I agree. Fan passion is built largely on tradition and big games, I don't think you create more passionate fans by cobbling together a geographic region without any meaningful tradition. Stanford fans aren't going to become more passionate by adding New Mexico to the conference, or UNLV just because they are nearby. You have to give fans something to be excited about and that means tradition or big games.

And the world and this country is becoming less regional, not more. I'm not following the argument that a rise in cord cutting and streaming somehow lends itself to a more regional strategy.

The Pac and the Big 12 are in the most challenging positions going forward. The best move for them both long-term is also the most drastic (and probably unlikely) and would involve merging the oldest and most marquee programs from each into a single conference. The Pac 8 schools plus Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Okie St, Nebraska, Mizzou, Kansas, and Colorado. If A&M were in play then Colorado or Baylor might be the odd man out, but I'm assuming they like the SEC. The schools left behind would form a new look MWC.

This is unlikely for a lot of reasons, but it would be a legitimate rival for the SEC and BIG.

 

[Buffnik]

Respectfully, I'm not sure I agree. Fan passion is built largely on tradition and big games, I don't think you create more passionate fans by cobbling together a geographic region without any meaningful tradition. Stanford fans aren't going to become more passionate by adding New Mexico to the conference, or UNLV just because they are nearby. You have to give fans something to be excited about and that means tradition or big games.

And the world and this country is becoming less regional, not more. I'm not following the argument that a rise in cord cutting and streaming somehow lends itself to a more regional strategy.

The Pac and the Big 12 are in the most challenging positions going forward. The best move for them both long-term is also the most drastic (and probably unlikely) and would involve merging the oldest and most marquee programs from each into a single conference. The Pac 8 schools plus Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Okie St, Nebraska, Mizzou, Kansas, and Colorado. If A&M were in play then Colorado or Baylor might be the odd man out, but I'm assuming they like the SEC. The schools left behind would form a new look MWC.

This is unlikely for a lot of reasons, but it would be a legitimate rival for the SEC and BIG.

Most likely, I think, is that the Big 12 crumbles: B1G takes 2, SEC takes 2, ACC takes 1 (WVU) and the Pac-12 takes 2-4 (assuming we're probably picking last here). 1-3 of the 10 teams get left out.

 

[MtnBuff]

I'm talking about raising the passion within the 12 programs we have. The more connected the region, the greater the passion.

Honestly, I'm wondering if with the move to streaming and a la carte models if it isn't bringing us back to the old days when regional rivalries drove conference affiliations. I could see that resulting in a total paradigm shift and CSU with either BYU or Utah State become the 13th & 14th teams. With so much fly over space between metros in these huge western states, it may call for the "2 teams per state" model to be revived for the conference.

Another positive is that if it was CSU and BYU it would secure the footprint from P5 intrusion. The Big 12 isn't going to expand into the MTZ without either of those schools.

The passion issue leads to schools like OU, UT (yuck), and kNU. These are schools that travel very well, schools that show up with flags flying and make their presence known when they visit a city. They are in your face enough that you can't help but to dislike them, dislike them enough to want to show up and see your team beat them.

Sorry Rams fans but CSU doesn't meet that criteria, neither does UNLV or any other MWC team. BYU does but they are a non-starter for the PAC, no matter what the financial benefits may be the PAC presidents are not going to admit a school with the social/cultural views of BYU.

 

[PAC MAN]

Relative to what? What does a lot more fan support look like?

Let's say they get a 50% increase in home attendance between the new stadium and moving up in conference, that in most years translates into at or below 30,000 fans per game. A 100% increase would leave them at or below 40,000 which would still put them near the bottom of P5 schools. Factor in that their revenue per ticket is much lower than CU or most P5 schools and they are still on the short end of the stick.

What about CSU translates into a competitive P5 program? Facilities (even with the new stadium,) fan support, history, etc.?

Certainly they would see a boost but the other schools that have moved up have not seen 100% increases or even 50% increases past the first couple years. It is hard to see CSU being a .500 team in a P5 conference with the resources they have available even if they got a full media share (which they likely wouldn't right away.)

Got this off the MWC Board. CSU fan said 24,100 season tickets have been sold so far which includes the student section if it sells out every game. Their numbers are going to go up period. From what I understand about the financing for the stadium, if CSU makes enough money, they don't have to tap into the $50 million plus that they have raised in donations. They were pretty conservative with those numbers and were comfortable enough to proceed with the construction of the stadium.

I don't think it would be difficult to expand the stadium to about 45,000 if the Big 12 or Pac-12 comes calling. You have to look at Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Iowa, and some of those states and wonder why Colorado doesn't have two P5 schools despite CSU having better academics than those states except for Iowa State who is an AAU member.

IT'S TIME to put COLORADO FIRST when it comes to athletics and having CSU as a conference rival would be a positive not only for CU but COLORADO the state. CSU fans never liked Utah in the WAC/MWC and I think CU fans will get around to that.

 

[onealcd]

Got this off the MWC Board. CSU fan said 24,100 season tickets have been sold so far which includes the student section if it sells out every game. Their numbers are going to go up period. From what I understand about the financing for the stadium, if CSU makes enough money, they don't have to tap into the $50 million plus that they have raised in donations. They were pretty conservative with those numbers and were comfortable enough to proceed with the construction of the stadium.

I don't think it would be difficult to expand the stadium to about 45,000 if the Big 12 or Pac-12 comes calling. You have to look at Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Iowa, and some of those states and wonder why Colorado doesn't have two P5 schools despite CSU having better academics than those states except for Iowa State who is an AAU member.

IT'S TIME to put COLORADO FIRST when it comes to athletics and having CSU as a conference rival would be a positive not only for CU but COLORADO the state. CSU fans never liked Utah in the WAC/MWC and I think CU fans will get around to that.

Your numbers seem really far off. There is no doubt they will have to dip into their donations, they borrowed $225 million that was never on their books before they built the stadium. Even if if produced more revenue than Hughes it will have to produce more than $15 million a year than Hughes which there is no was in hell that will happen. Then consider their AD lost about $15 million a year before they built the stadium and there is no doubt those donations are going to be used.


Don't listen to CsU fans on this, they clearly don't understand finances in an athletic department.

 

[MtnBuff]

And if they are including student tickets in season ticket sales that means that their actual revenue producing number is way below that.

No doubt that they will see a jump in attendance, that is normal with a new stadium. If you look at other schools who built new stadiums though the long term none of them had increases of the type that CSU fans are hoping for, or need to be viable in a P5 conference.

 

[Deleted member 807]

Got this off the MWC Board. CSU fan said 24,100 season tickets have been sold so far which includes the student section if it sells out every game. Their numbers are going to go up period. From what I understand about the financing for the stadium, if CSU makes enough money, they don't have to tap into the $50 million plus that they have raised in donations. They were pretty conservative with those numbers and were comfortable enough to proceed with the construction of the stadium.

I don't think it would be difficult to expand the stadium to about 45,000 if the Big 12 or Pac-12 comes calling. You have to look at Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Iowa, and some of those states and wonder why Colorado doesn't have two P5 schools despite CSU having better academics than those states except for Iowa State who is an AAU member.

IT'S TIME to put COLORADO FIRST when it comes to athletics and having CSU as a conference rival would be a positive not only for CU but COLORADO the state. CSU fans never liked Utah in the WAC/MWC and I think CU fans will get around to that.

The CSU stadium has some nice hospitality features. But something is missing...

 

[Buffnik]

Got this off the MWC Board. CSU fan said 24,100 season tickets have been sold so far which includes the student section if it sells out every game. Their numbers are going to go up period. From what I understand about the financing for the stadium, if CSU makes enough money, they don't have to tap into the $50 million plus that they have raised in donations. They were pretty conservative with those numbers and were comfortable enough to proceed with the construction of the stadium.

I don't think it would be difficult to expand the stadium to about 45,000 if the Big 12 or Pac-12 comes calling. You have to look at Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Iowa, and some of those states and wonder why Colorado doesn't have two P5 schools despite CSU having better academics than those states except for Iowa State who is an AAU member.

IT'S TIME to put COLORADO FIRST when it comes to athletics and having CSU as a conference rival would be a positive not only for CU but COLORADO the state. CSU fans never liked Utah in the WAC/MWC and I think CU fans will get around to that.

What do they mean "if it sells out every game" in relation to the student section?

CSU doesn't charge admission to students.

From their website:

• Student Tickets are FREE to undergraduate, full-time, fee-paying students

http://www.csurams.com/tickets/student-tickets.html

 

[boulder77]

What do they mean "if it sells out every game" in relation to the student section?

CSU doesn't charge admission to students.

Ramnomics Financial Advisors:

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

What do they mean "if it sells out every game" in relation to the student section?

CSU doesn't charge admission to students.

From their website:

• Student Tickets are FREE to undergraduate, full-time, fee-paying students

http://www.csurams.com/tickets/student-tickets.html

Maybe they meant, "if the student section is at capacity"?