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Matches thread- Volleyball visits #16 Oregon (Friday, 8:00 MT) and OSU (Sunday, noon MT)

AztecBuff

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With the Buffs probably having to probably go AT LEAST 3-1 over the last 4 matches (all on the road, and 4-0 might be needed) to have a chance at earning an NCAA berth, every remaining match is obviously HUGE. A win over the Ducks (who in addition to being ranked #16 have a #23 RPI) could be the most valuable, as it might*** also constitute the Buffs highest "quality" win of the year, so would be a nice "resume" builder. (***Thankfully, Washington (who the Buffs beat 3-1 a few weeks ago in Boulder) has turned it around the last couple weeks and is up to RPI #22.)

Preview article - https://cubuffs.com/news/2018/11/15/volleyball-cu-begins-road-stretch-in-oregon.aspx?path=wvball

"
CU Begins Road Stretch in Oregon

November 15, 2018

By: Shaun Wicen, Assistant SID

BOULDER –
The University of Colorado women's volleyball team begins the four-match road stretch that will serve as the finale of the regular season, starting with a Friday night senior day match against No.16-ranked Oregon at 8 p.m. MT, followed by a Sunday noon match at Oregon State.

The Buffs (15-12, 7-9 Pac-12) have been receiving votes in the AVCA poll all year long, but similar to their ranking the team is on the bubble of entering the NCAA Tournament. With 32 spots going to automatic-bid receiving teams, the battle for one of the 32 remaining at-large spots has come down to a must-win situation for the Buffs. Colorado is currently the 50th-ranked team in NCAA RPI, the bread-and-butter ranking for the NCAA voting committee. With the teams in top-100 that are leading their conference taken out of the equation, CU is the 32nd team in RPI ranking, leaving little margin of error for the rest of the season.

Colorado is led by a duo of seniors in Alexa Smith and Naghede Abu. Smith has moved to ninth in all-time career kills and is just 34 away from taking over seventh. She has 18-straight matches with double-digit kills and has hit greater than .350 in three of the last five.
...

SCOUTING THE DUCKS: Oregon (17-9, 10-6 Pac-12) is one of the premiere hitting teams in the nation with the fourth-most assists per set and the sixth most kills per set in the country. They are also top-50 in attacks per set and hitting percentage, but falter in opponent hitting percentage with allowing better than .200 to their adversaries.

The Ducks offense stems from their setter August Raskie, who is fourth in the nation in assists per set. Last time the Buffs played her she recorded the only triple-double in conference play this season. On the defensive end, freshman Brooke Nuneviller leads the Pac-12 in digs per set at nearly five, and middle Ronika Stone is fourth in total blocks with 116.

Since defeating CU earlier in the season the Ducks have gone 5-4 in the stretch with a pair of four-set losses to Stanford, a four-set loss to Utah and being swept at home against USC. They also have a pair of sweeps of Cal and four-set wins against Arizona and UCLA.

SCOUTING THE BEAVERS: Oregon State (11-17, 1-15 Pac-12) is the last ranked team in the Pac-12 with just a single win against Arizona State. The Beavers have not won a set in three matches against USC, Cal and Stanford. Before that they took UCLA to five at home and beat ASU in four sets on the road for their lone conference win. OSU has been swept in 10-of-17 matches, including four at home.

Oregon State leads the conference in attacks per set, digs and total attacks. Outside Maddie Goings leads the conference in total attacks, while Grace Massey is second in the conference in total digs with nearly 500.
"
_______________________________________________________________________________

Match notes - https://cubuffs.com/documents/2018/11/15//2018_CU_Volleyball_Nov_14.pdf

Match Media links -
Vs. Oregon (Friday, 8:00 PM MT)
:
Free live stream - https://pac-12.com/live/university-oregon
Live stats - http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=225146

Vs. Oregon State (Sunday, Noon MT) :
Free live stream -
https://pac-12.com/live/oregon-state-university
Link to link to live stats - http://www.statbroadcast.com/events/statmonitr.php?gid=orst Edit - direct link now available - it is http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=224429
 
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Just to explain the Buffs RPI situation a little (as I with my always suspect understanding understands it):
  • Currently, they are officially #50, which might almost put them on the bubble if they just "held serve".
  • However, there's a great poster on Volleytalk (by the handle of Bluepenguin (BP)) who, since the beginning of the season, has been doing simulations of every future regular season match (BP doesn't try to guess the results of conference tournaments for those conferences that have them) using each team's Pablo ratings*** to come up with every future matches' winners, and then comes up with the estimated RPI for every D1 team using the RPI calculation. (BP's weekly posts are titled "RPI Futures".) From the latest analysis done after last weekend's matches (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75546/rpi-futures-week-12-11?page=1), BP's calculation has the Buffs finishing 2-2 over the remaining 4 matches, and that the Buffs RPI will fall to #58 if that happens. I don't think there's much chance the Buffs would get a berth with a #58 RPI.
(***The Pablo ratings area volleyball-specific ratings calculation (I believe calculated on the great (premium) richkern.com website) which has been shown to be more accurate at picking winners of future matches than RPI.)
  • On the bright side, it surprises me how much variation the RPI Futures have still shown even this late in the season. For at least the last 3 weeks, BP's projections have had the Buffs ending with the same overall record (17-14) each week. Yet, the RPI Futures have fluctuated quite a bit. As noted above, the Buffs are currently estimated to end at #58 if all the matches go as projected and they go 2-2 over their last 4. The week before, however, the same record had the Buffs ending up back with a #63 RPI (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75479/rpi-futures-week-11-18?page=1), and the weekend before had them ending at #71 (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/75395/rpi-futures-week-10-29?page=1). (Assume the Buffs were benefited some last weekend, at least, in spite of their disappointing Arizona lost, by many other tournament contending teams also having tough/ disappointing losses.)

Now, a few points/ rants about RPI:
  • Like with the soccer team, be prepared to hear some bitching from fans (including from me) about RPI if volleyball isn't selected, as every other major rating I can find for them has the Buffs rated quite a bit higher than their current #50 RPI:
  • Also, re RPI, just wanted to mention (thanks to some poster in Volleytalk, I can't remember who, for pointing out) that, in the Wikipedia page describing RPI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_percentage_index), there is the following sentence- "The RPI lacks theoretical justification from a statistical standpoint. ". Just what fans want to hear about what seems to have been/ be the starting point for every selection committee's*** review process on who gets into the NCAA tournament.
  • ***Hopefully, like seems to be happening in Men's basketball starting this season (per https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...tric-tournament-selection-process/1062465002/), RPI calculations will cease to be a consideration for ALL selection committees which currently rely on them SOON.
 
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Buffs with a rough start - down 7-12 as they call their 1st timeout. Combination of 4 hitting errors (only 1 from a block) vs. 1 kill and 2 overpasses off duck serves leading to the deficit.
 
Tough start continues- buffs take their 2nd and last timeout for the 1st set down 8-17.
 
Buffs play a lot better late, and only lose the 1st set 19-25. (Finishing off sets strong, even in a losing effort, is often a good sign for the next set.)
 
It's been a tight 2nd set, but Buffs call timeout after a 3 point duck scoring run- 16-18 score.
 
Buffs playing better, but after a great rally leads to another duck point, they take timeout #2 down 4-10.
 
Like in the 1st, Buffs probably built themselves too big a hole in the 4th, but playing better late and hopefully building momentum for the 5th. duck timeout up 17-22.
 
Senior Abu with what I assume is one of the best offensive performance of her career at a crucial time!


(Note- this tweet currently not showing the 1st set score.)
 
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