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NET Watch 2020

seattlebuff said:
Still don't understand how we're not at risk ... two more losses to Q2/3 teams (Utah and whoever in the Vegas opener) and we're almost guaranteed mid 30s NET at best. Two sub 35 NET teams didn't make it last year.

Anyone thinking we're guaranteed has their head in the sand. We have to win one of those games, then we're in.
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got math to back up your opinion that two losses at this stage will result in a 33 ranking at best? Our resume is still quite good. We are in.
 
seattlebuff said:
Still don't understand how we're not at risk ... two more losses to Q2/3 teams (Utah and whoever in the Vegas opener) and we're almost guaranteed mid 30s NET at best. Two sub 35 NET teams didn't make it last year.

Anyone thinking we're guaranteed has their head in the sand. We have to win one of those games, then we're in.
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Your head is in the sand if you think we’re not a lock.
 
Darth Snow said:
got math to back up your opinion that two losses at this stage will result in a 33 ranking at best? Our resume is still quite good. We are in.
Click to expand...
See if you can follow me here ...

We're at 23 today (fell one today without even playing a game ... could happen again between now and Saturday. Or we could go up, but let's assume we're at 23 on Saturday.)
When we lost @UCLA by 7pts on Feb. 22, we fell 6 spots from 12 to 18 ... that was a Q2 loss, right?
If we lose to Utah by ~7pts, that's a Q2 loss (~6 pt drop). If we lose to say WSU in the first round, that might be a Q3 loss (at least 6 point drop). Losing to Wash or OSU would be a Q2 loss (~6 pt drop). So ... losing both games could mean a 10-15 drop.

So ... even with +1 or +2 margin for error, two losses would likely equal at least a 10 point drop ... putting us at 33 ... NC State was left out at 33 last year, and they play in a much stronger conference. And this year its more wide open that last year, so the committee will surely pick some team in the 40s that's hot over a collapsing team in the mid 30s.

I'm ****ing hoping as much as anyone on here that we take care of business in one of those games and lock up a spot. And yes, even if we lose both, we could get in.

But to say we're a lock is just not accurate at all, based on the math above.
 
seattlebuff said:
See if you can follow me here ...

We're at 23 today (fell one today without even playing a game ... could happen again between now and Saturday. Or we could go up, but let's assume we're at 23 on Satruday.)
When we lost @UCLA, we fell 6 spots from 12 to 18 ... that was a Q2 loss, right?
If we lose to Utah, that's a Q2 loss (~6 pt drop). If we lose to say WSU in the first round, that might be a Q3 loss (at least 6 point drop). Losing to Wash or OSU would be a Q2 loss (~6 pt drop). So ... losing both games could mean a 10-15 drop.

So ... even with +1 or +2 margin for error, two losses would likely equal at least a 10 point drop ... putting us at 33 ... NC State was left out at 33 last year, and they play in a much stronger conference. And this year its more wide open that last year, so the committee will surety pick some team in the 40s that's hot over a collapsing team in the mid 30s.

I'm ****ing hoping as much as anyone on here that we take care of business in one of those games and lock up a spot. And yes, even if we lose both, we could get it.

But to say we're a lock is just not accurate at all, based on the math above.
Click to expand...
We are a lock. This is supposition masquerading as math.
 
seattlebuff said:
See if you can follow me here ...

We're at 23 today (fell one today without even playing a game ... could happen again between now and Saturday. Or we could go up, but let's assume we're at 23 on Saturday.)
When we lost @UCLA by 7pts on Feb. 22, we fell 6 spots from 12 to 18 ... that was a Q2 loss, right?
If we lose to Utah by ~7pts, that's a Q2 loss (~6 pt drop). If we lose to say WSU in the first round, that might be a Q3 loss (at least 6 point drop). Losing to Wash or OSU would be a Q2 loss (~6 pt drop). So ... losing both games could mean a 10-15 drop.

So ... even with +1 or +2 margin for error, two losses would likely equal at least a 10 point drop ... putting us at 33 ... NC State was left out at 33 last year, and they play in a much stronger conference. And this year its more wide open that last year, so the committee will surely pick some team in the 40s that's hot over a collapsing team in the mid 30s.

I'm ****ing hoping as much as anyone on here that we take care of business in one of those games and lock up a spot. And yes, even if we lose both, we could get in.

But to say we're a lock is just not accurate at all, based on the math above.
Click to expand...

Since you used NC State last year-did you look at their body of work? I did, and here's what I saw: That team beat Auburn, and then didn't do a damn thing in conference (OT loss to UVA, and they were punked by UNC and Duke). The comparison doesn't fly because of the myriad of quality wins we've got-Dayton on a neutral floor, Oregon and Stanford in Boulder, and sweeps of both USC and Arizona State.

Your whole post puts way too much credence on NET and not enough on H2H result. We're still soundly in. Relax.
 
ahoelsken said:
Since you used NC State last year-did you look at their body of work? I did, and here's what I saw: That team beat Auburn, and then didn't do a damn thing in conference (OT loss to UVA, and they were punked by UNC and Duke). The comparison doesn't fly because of the myriad of quality wins we've got-Dayton on a neutral floor, Oregon and Stanford in Boulder, and sweeps of both USC and Arizona State.

Your whole post puts way too much credence on NET and not enough on H2H result. We're still soundly in. Relax.
Click to expand...

seattle thrives on negativity ... ignore him. While some here think he has some valid points (and he well may on occasion) the fact that he only appears in game threads at times in which we're sucking and promptly disappears when things are going well grates on me ... and tells me he has antother agenda than cheering on the Buffs.
 
L Buff said:
seattle thrives on negativity ... ignore him. While some here think he has some valid points (and he well may on occasion) the fact that he only appears in game threads at times in which we're sucking and promptly disappears when things are going well grates on me ... and tells me he has antother agenda than cheering on the Buffs.
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Again, it’s like you don’t get history. Or how message boards work ... you can actually go back and look at my posts if you want to make an informed statement. I posted LOTS of positive sunshine pumping stuff back when we didn’t suck weeks ago. Or you can just make an uniformed dip**** statement
 
Close loses on the road doesn't move the needle much. Before Utah- 23, after Utah- 23. Still sucks though...
 
We'll get in, I think we definitely need the last one and show well in the Pac12 tourney. The latter is more about seeding than anything. Also, find yourselves before tourney play or it won't matter if we get in or not.
 
sockdolager said:
Close loses on the road doesn't move the needle much. Before Utah- 23, after Utah- 23. Still sucks though...
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That is really surprising, clearly NET is highly unpredictable ... when we lost to Cal on the road we dropped 6. You'd assume we'd drop at least 2-3?

Maybe we are a lock then ... I'll concede that. Still feel much better if we beat WSU.
 
seattlebuff said:
That is really surprising, clearly NET is highly unpredictable ... when we lost to Cal on the road we dropped 6. You'd assume we'd drop at least 2-3?

Maybe we are a lock then ... I'll concede that. Still feel much better if we beat WSU.
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The exact formula for Net rankings is not public knowledge but two factors are known: Margin of victory and current net rankings of opponents.
1. Utah's net ranking is 85. Cal's is 142
2. Utah's margin of Victory was 2 points Cal's was 12 points
 
Even knowing what NET consists of, you’d have to reasonable assume we’d drop at least a little with even a close Quad 2 loss.
But hey, I’m glad we didn’t. I’m glad I’m wrong. I hope we beat WSU, remove all doubt and then the season is a success no matter what happens in the Dance. Sure, we could have had a 4-5 seed if everything had gone right but getting there is a big step forward ...
 
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