cubuffs85
Active Member
Aren't they still listing your worst loss regardless of who it is? So every team but Wichita has something next to that column?
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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
That's equally asinine and pointless. You either have bad (sub-100) losses or you don't. I doubt Joe Basketballfan living in Pennsylvania has any idea what Utah or Washington's RPI is. It's creating the perception we have bad losses when we don't.
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cubuffs85
Active Member
I'm agreeing with you, just saying they've been consistent with listing a teams worse loss or atleast that I've seen. It's hard for them in Bristol to do a template for a team without any bad losses.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I thought I recalled the website saying "worst" and television saying "bad". Seems the easy solution would be to list the RPI of the team listed "worst loss", but espn hates the RPI so good luck with that.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
ESPN right now is doing "bad losses" for BYU's resume. CU's has been shown under that same banner in the past with Utah and Washington. I knew I'd seen it.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
BYU tops San Francisco, adding a pretty decent win to the resume (SF is mid 60's RPI). BYU vs Gonzaga in the WCC final tomorrow. If you're of the opinion like most like Lunardi that BYU is an 11 seed, they're probably going to be OK now. However, Palm and a few others maintain BYU is outside the field and not even in the first four out. BYU has nice computer numbers and some nice wins, but four bad losses. You wonder if that's one bad loss too many...
Damn. USF is getting close. They'da won that one with Doolin. Any of you basketball folks know why he left?
The WCC is a 2-bid league this year. What we wanted to avoid was it becoming a 3-bid league with someone other than BYU or the Zags winning the conference tourney. Mission accomplished.
wait are you saying that CU is listed as a bad loss?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wednesday:
Our Buffs 21-10 (10-8) face USC 11-20 (2-16) in the first round of the Pac12 tournament. Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have CU a 10 seed. *99/99 bracketologists on Bracket Matrix have CU in* RPI is 32, SOS is 14. Plenty of quality wins and no bad losses. We've got to keep that no bad losses part, it's huge. USC's RPI is 170. I think we get in even if we **** this up, but I really, really, really do not want to test that theory.
Georgetown 17-13 (8-10) vs DePaul 11-20 (3-15): Georgetown is a long shot at this point. "Next Four Out" material. RPI 55. Some really nice wins, but some mediocre to downright bad losses. Anything less than a run to the Big East final probably leaves Georgetown short. It's a weird resume though, so there's a chance the committee pulls a shocker and values it more than expected.
Stanford 19-11 (10-8) vs Washington State 10-20 (3-15): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Stanford as a 10 seed. RPI is 44. Despite the same projected seed, Stanford seems to be on a little shakier ground than CU (for instance, Bracket Matrix has CU the top 10 seed and Stanford the bottom 10 seed). Numbers aren't as good. A loss to 211 Washington State would spell trouble for Stanford. Probably wouldn't drop all the way out, but it would be a nervous Sunday.
I no longer consider Baylor, Oklahoma State or Oregon bubble teams. They're in.
Our Buffs 21-10 (10-8) face USC 11-20 (2-16) in the first round of the Pac12 tournament. Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have CU a 10 seed. *99/99 bracketologists on Bracket Matrix have CU in* RPI is 32, SOS is 14. Plenty of quality wins and no bad losses. We've got to keep that no bad losses part, it's huge. USC's RPI is 170. I think we get in even if we **** this up, but I really, really, really do not want to test that theory.
Georgetown 17-13 (8-10) vs DePaul 11-20 (3-15): Georgetown is a long shot at this point. "Next Four Out" material. RPI 55. Some really nice wins, but some mediocre to downright bad losses. Anything less than a run to the Big East final probably leaves Georgetown short. It's a weird resume though, so there's a chance the committee pulls a shocker and values it more than expected.
Stanford 19-11 (10-8) vs Washington State 10-20 (3-15): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Stanford as a 10 seed. RPI is 44. Despite the same projected seed, Stanford seems to be on a little shakier ground than CU (for instance, Bracket Matrix has CU the top 10 seed and Stanford the bottom 10 seed). Numbers aren't as good. A loss to 211 Washington State would spell trouble for Stanford. Probably wouldn't drop all the way out, but it would be a nervous Sunday.
I no longer consider Baylor, Oklahoma State or Oregon bubble teams. They're in.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I personally believe BYU should be in, but Palm is holding firm here. BYU has more sub 100 losses (4) than they do quality wins (3). And the 4 bad losses aren't even close to cracking the top 100: 139, 163, 181, 183. BYU likely gets in, but if they get left out it's hard to feel a great deal of sympathy. I wonder if BYU is this year's "surprise" for being left out, it wouldn't be the first time Palm held firm on a team and was proven right over Lunardi.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...tology-gonzaga-wins-wcc-again-byu-very-bubbly
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You're probably right but a loss today could very well drop us down to having to play Tuesday or Wednesday in Dayton.
cubuffs85
Active Member
Definitely possible, but looking at some of the projected sites, I think we'll still avoid it even if we lose.
SECOBuffsFan
Active Member
The all-knowing Joe Lunardi has us as a lock...with Cal, Stanford and Utah as bubble teams
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
people need to fuc.king stop with the utes. there is no way they get in. the OOC was WAY to ****ty, and the conf record was mediocre, and they have 1 good win (UCLA). It's not happening.
If the Committee is consistent and reward mediocre records with tough OOC schedules (even if they lost those games) instead of teams with good records that played ****ty OOC schedules but made up for it in RPI by being in a high RPI conference... then Utah has no shot at Dancing unless they win the P12T.
But you really never know what they'll decide to do with those 4-6 actual decisions they have to make every year on bids.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Georgetown loses to DePaul (whose RPI is 160). Hoyas are toast, they needed a deep run in the Big East tournament. Bubble popped, without a doubt. Very disappointing year for a Georgetown squad that was picked 2nd in the Big East.
Not so fast. Gottlieb probably still has Georgetown and Colorado neck-and-neck on the bubble.
cubuffs85
Active Member
He has a relative who works for Georgetown or did he commit a crime there?
He hates Jim Boeheim and Georgetown is Syracuse's traditional rival.
cubuffs85
Active Member
Didn't know the former, knew the latter. Hard for me to hate fellow tribe member Gottlieb, but stuff like this annoys me.
We are a lock on espn's bubble watch. Whew, bubble life is stressful.
cubuffs85
Active Member
I'll bet if we lose tomorrow, we'll get all concerned about going to Dayton or something.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
It's really quite easy to hate Gottlieb, even when he's arguing something I agree with
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
They added the utes to bubble watch while locking us up. I dont remember our exact numbers from 3 years ago, but I think they were better than this:
Utah [21-10 (9-9), RPI: 80, SOS: 119, OOC SOS 347]. There was only 4 teams that played an easier non-con schedule in all of D1. IMO, the utes need the auto-bid.
edit: cant math.
Utah [21-10 (9-9), RPI: 80, SOS: 119, OOC SOS 347]. There was only 4 teams that played an easier non-con schedule in all of D1. IMO, the utes need the auto-bid.
edit: cant math.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Our RPI was 66, our SOS was 70, our OOC SOS was 331. I know bubbles are popping left and right, but Utah would have to make the finals to have any shot and even then it's unlikely. Remember, two of their wins are against Evergreen State and St. Katherine so they really only have 19 wins.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Thursday:
Our Buffs 22-10 (10-8) face Cal 19-12 (10-8): CU's win over USC cleared the last remaining hurdle as far as I'm concerned. Five top 50 wins, no bad losses, top notch SOS, RPI 32. 100/100 brackets have CU in (Bracket Matrix), Buffs are in the 9 to 10 seed range, it seems. Cal, however, is very much on the bubble. Lunardi has Cal the 3rd team out, Bracket Matrix the 1st team out. RPI is 53. Bears have wins over Arizona, @ Oregon, @ Stanford, but they've also lost to USC. After starting conference play 5-0, Cal has only won 5 of their last 13 games. It's quite unlikely Cal gets a bid unless they defeat CU, and even that may not be enough. The Buffs already faced desperate Cal this past weekend, losing in the final seconds in OT after handing the game away. This time it's a neutral court. It's notoriously difficult to beat a team the final game of the regular season and then turn around and beat them again in the conference tournament. Here's hoping the Buffs come out fired up to erase last Saturday's painful loss.
Florida State 18-12 (9-9) vs Maryland 17-14 (9-9): Florida State blew their chance to really make a push for a Dance bid by losing at home to Syracuse in their final regular season game. Currently in Lunardi's "Next Four Out". FSU has wins over VCU, UMass, @ Pitt along with one bad loss to Miami. RPI is 55. If the Noles beat Maryland and then beat Virginia (winner of this game faces Virginia) they'd enter the picture again and have a case. Maryland's RPI is 69, they did just pick up a win over Virginia and have no sub-100 losses. If they were to beat FSU, Virginia and North Carolina would they could conceivably enter the picture at the last moment, but it's highly unlikely to say the least (but if people are going to talk about Utah...) Really no excuse for Maryland to only be 17-14 with the talent they have and how many winnable ACC games there were. This has not been Turgeon's best year.
Missouri 21-10 (9-9) vs Texas A&M 17-14 (8-10): Lunardi has Missouri in the "Next Four Out", Bracket Matrix doesn't even have Mizzou in the picture anymore, but Palm has them as the first team out. It's clear Missouri isn't in the field right now coming off a 27 point loss to fellow bubbler Tennessee and being the 8th seed in a miserable SEC that goes 2 deep. RPI is 52. They've defeated UCLA and Tennessee, those are their only top 50 wins. Two sub 100 losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt. A win over 138 Texas A&M isn't going to move Mizzou forward, and they'll face Florida next if they win. Mizzou has to beat Florida in order to Dance.
Pittsburgh 23-8 (11-7) vs Wake Forest 17-15 (6-12): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Pitt a 10 seed (holding one of the final byes) while Palm has them an 11 seed. RPI 44. Pitt remarkably went unquestioned for months because at first glance, their record looks impressive. Then you look and see Pitt has 1 top 50 win (over Stanford in November). Outside of that win over Thanksgiving, Pitt has lost to everyone they've faced who has a pulse, including home losses to squads like NC State that aren't even sniffing the bubble. Add in that they've needed overtime and double overtime to defeat Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami (and also beat Boston College in the last minute) and it becomes clear Pitt is a mediocre basketball team that has masked itself with 23 wins thanks to the 220th OOC and last second wins over teams who finished 13th, 14th and 15th in the ACC. If Pitt loses to sub-100 Wake Forest, they will be in danger of falling out of the field.
St. John's 20-11 (10-8) vs Providence 20-11: Lunardi has Providence and St. John's his first and second teams out, respectively. Bracket Matrix has them both in "first four out" as well. Providence RPI 54, St. John's 57. This is a bubble elimination game. Both teams likely need more than just this one win to get in, but the loser is not getting a bid. Should be quite a battle. St. John's is of course in their home setting at Madison Square. Love a bubble elimination game like this.
Dayton 22-9 (10-6) vs Fordham 10-20 (2-14): Lunardi has Dayton the next to last team in, Bracket Matrix gives them a little more breathing room as the first 11 seed. Flyers have won 9/10 to get themselves in the field. A loss to Fordham would be a disaster that would drop Dayton out. Cannot lose this.
Utah 21-10 (9-9) vs #3 Arizona 28-3 (15-3): Utah's RPI is 75, OOC SOS is 341. Hard to overcome that. A neutral court victory over Arizona would boost that RPI within range and add that real signature win. Even them, Utes would need another win to make the final to have any real shot. Each year is different but CU had a better RPI, stronger SOS and stronger OOC when snubbed in 2011.
Arkansas 21-10 (10-8) vs South Carolina 13-19 (5-13): Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Arkansas as the last team in. RPI 59. Very fortunate to still be listed as in after what Alabama did to them this past weekend. A win over South Carolina won't push the Razorbacks forward, but a loss would end their Dance hopes right then and there. Problem with the SEC is it's so weak that unless you can bump into Florida or Kentucky, you don't have any opportunity to get yourself a quality win and seriously improve the resume. It'll be interesting to see how Arkansas responds. No reason they shouldn't handle South Carolina with relative ease.
Minnesota 19-12 (8-10) vs Penn State 15-16 (6-12): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have the Gophers in the "First Four Out". RPI is 51. Gophers just beat Penn State in their final regular season game. Always tough to beat a team back to back. Minnesota has got to beat Penn State and then get themselves a quality win if they want to feel the slightest bit of comfort on Sunday. If they beat Penn State and then lose, it's more likely than not that they get left out.
Xavier 20-11 (10-8) vs Marquette 17-14 (9-9): Lunardi has Xavier holding the final bye, Bracket Matrix has them
3rd to last in (play-in game). RPI is 49. Xavier looked like they had finally found safety two weeks ago beating Creighton, but then turned around and picked up a bad loss to Seton Hall and couldn't pull off an upset of Villanova. If Xavier defeats Marquette and then loses in the next round it would probably be enough to keep them in, albeit with a likely play-in game in Dayton. Anything less than 2 wins in this Big East tournament will result in anything from anxiety (beating just Marquette) to dread (losing to Marquette).
Stanford 20-11 (10-8) vs Arizona State 21-10 (10-8): Stanford's win over Wazzu likely sealed the deal. Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Stanford a 10 seed. RPI is 46. A loss to Arizona State simply wouldn't be particularly damaging. If Stanford is truly in the 10 seed area, then they're safe now that the risk of horrible loss is gone.
Our Buffs 22-10 (10-8) face Cal 19-12 (10-8): CU's win over USC cleared the last remaining hurdle as far as I'm concerned. Five top 50 wins, no bad losses, top notch SOS, RPI 32. 100/100 brackets have CU in (Bracket Matrix), Buffs are in the 9 to 10 seed range, it seems. Cal, however, is very much on the bubble. Lunardi has Cal the 3rd team out, Bracket Matrix the 1st team out. RPI is 53. Bears have wins over Arizona, @ Oregon, @ Stanford, but they've also lost to USC. After starting conference play 5-0, Cal has only won 5 of their last 13 games. It's quite unlikely Cal gets a bid unless they defeat CU, and even that may not be enough. The Buffs already faced desperate Cal this past weekend, losing in the final seconds in OT after handing the game away. This time it's a neutral court. It's notoriously difficult to beat a team the final game of the regular season and then turn around and beat them again in the conference tournament. Here's hoping the Buffs come out fired up to erase last Saturday's painful loss.
Florida State 18-12 (9-9) vs Maryland 17-14 (9-9): Florida State blew their chance to really make a push for a Dance bid by losing at home to Syracuse in their final regular season game. Currently in Lunardi's "Next Four Out". FSU has wins over VCU, UMass, @ Pitt along with one bad loss to Miami. RPI is 55. If the Noles beat Maryland and then beat Virginia (winner of this game faces Virginia) they'd enter the picture again and have a case. Maryland's RPI is 69, they did just pick up a win over Virginia and have no sub-100 losses. If they were to beat FSU, Virginia and North Carolina would they could conceivably enter the picture at the last moment, but it's highly unlikely to say the least (but if people are going to talk about Utah...) Really no excuse for Maryland to only be 17-14 with the talent they have and how many winnable ACC games there were. This has not been Turgeon's best year.
Missouri 21-10 (9-9) vs Texas A&M 17-14 (8-10): Lunardi has Missouri in the "Next Four Out", Bracket Matrix doesn't even have Mizzou in the picture anymore, but Palm has them as the first team out. It's clear Missouri isn't in the field right now coming off a 27 point loss to fellow bubbler Tennessee and being the 8th seed in a miserable SEC that goes 2 deep. RPI is 52. They've defeated UCLA and Tennessee, those are their only top 50 wins. Two sub 100 losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt. A win over 138 Texas A&M isn't going to move Mizzou forward, and they'll face Florida next if they win. Mizzou has to beat Florida in order to Dance.
Pittsburgh 23-8 (11-7) vs Wake Forest 17-15 (6-12): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Pitt a 10 seed (holding one of the final byes) while Palm has them an 11 seed. RPI 44. Pitt remarkably went unquestioned for months because at first glance, their record looks impressive. Then you look and see Pitt has 1 top 50 win (over Stanford in November). Outside of that win over Thanksgiving, Pitt has lost to everyone they've faced who has a pulse, including home losses to squads like NC State that aren't even sniffing the bubble. Add in that they've needed overtime and double overtime to defeat Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami (and also beat Boston College in the last minute) and it becomes clear Pitt is a mediocre basketball team that has masked itself with 23 wins thanks to the 220th OOC and last second wins over teams who finished 13th, 14th and 15th in the ACC. If Pitt loses to sub-100 Wake Forest, they will be in danger of falling out of the field.
St. John's 20-11 (10-8) vs Providence 20-11: Lunardi has Providence and St. John's his first and second teams out, respectively. Bracket Matrix has them both in "first four out" as well. Providence RPI 54, St. John's 57. This is a bubble elimination game. Both teams likely need more than just this one win to get in, but the loser is not getting a bid. Should be quite a battle. St. John's is of course in their home setting at Madison Square. Love a bubble elimination game like this.
Dayton 22-9 (10-6) vs Fordham 10-20 (2-14): Lunardi has Dayton the next to last team in, Bracket Matrix gives them a little more breathing room as the first 11 seed. Flyers have won 9/10 to get themselves in the field. A loss to Fordham would be a disaster that would drop Dayton out. Cannot lose this.
Utah 21-10 (9-9) vs #3 Arizona 28-3 (15-3): Utah's RPI is 75, OOC SOS is 341. Hard to overcome that. A neutral court victory over Arizona would boost that RPI within range and add that real signature win. Even them, Utes would need another win to make the final to have any real shot. Each year is different but CU had a better RPI, stronger SOS and stronger OOC when snubbed in 2011.
Arkansas 21-10 (10-8) vs South Carolina 13-19 (5-13): Both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix have Arkansas as the last team in. RPI 59. Very fortunate to still be listed as in after what Alabama did to them this past weekend. A win over South Carolina won't push the Razorbacks forward, but a loss would end their Dance hopes right then and there. Problem with the SEC is it's so weak that unless you can bump into Florida or Kentucky, you don't have any opportunity to get yourself a quality win and seriously improve the resume. It'll be interesting to see how Arkansas responds. No reason they shouldn't handle South Carolina with relative ease.
Minnesota 19-12 (8-10) vs Penn State 15-16 (6-12): Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have the Gophers in the "First Four Out". RPI is 51. Gophers just beat Penn State in their final regular season game. Always tough to beat a team back to back. Minnesota has got to beat Penn State and then get themselves a quality win if they want to feel the slightest bit of comfort on Sunday. If they beat Penn State and then lose, it's more likely than not that they get left out.
Xavier 20-11 (10-8) vs Marquette 17-14 (9-9): Lunardi has Xavier holding the final bye, Bracket Matrix has them
3rd to last in (play-in game). RPI is 49. Xavier looked like they had finally found safety two weeks ago beating Creighton, but then turned around and picked up a bad loss to Seton Hall and couldn't pull off an upset of Villanova. If Xavier defeats Marquette and then loses in the next round it would probably be enough to keep them in, albeit with a likely play-in game in Dayton. Anything less than 2 wins in this Big East tournament will result in anything from anxiety (beating just Marquette) to dread (losing to Marquette).
Stanford 20-11 (10-8) vs Arizona State 21-10 (10-8): Stanford's win over Wazzu likely sealed the deal. Lunardi and Bracket Matrix both have Stanford a 10 seed. RPI is 46. A loss to Arizona State simply wouldn't be particularly damaging. If Stanford is truly in the 10 seed area, then they're safe now that the risk of horrible loss is gone.