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Official RPI Watch 2014-15

****ing Georgia. Major fail at LSU -- You can't blow a 9 point lead in OT with 2:11 remaining. Lost 87-84 in 2OT. Dawgs have now blown 2 of the SEC's few chances for quality wins that don't involve facing Kentucky.

Northern Colorado got a nice Big Sky win over Sacramento State, 84-73
 
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Sunday:

Buffs stayed pretty much the same in the RPI on Saturday (now 69th) as our opponents did pretty well. Probably would have even risen had Georgia not blown a 9 point OT lead in 2 minutes at LSU. Considering our current ugly record and resume, it's pretty encouraging we're in the 60s. This puts CU's RPI as 4th in the Pac. While that bodes well for CU having a decent conference record, it also means there are very few games that will make a resume. Washington is completely falling apart, as is Cal. Oregon is just the definition of mediocre. UCLA may yet come on strong by default (someone has to win these games). The only good news is the bottom of the Pac is stronger than expected -- everyone is above 150. The 3 and 4 seeds are certainly there for the taking if CU shakes off the annual injury curse and plays with half a pulse. Unfortunately building a resume to be a bubble team is increasingly looking like it would require some magic in the Keg by bringing down Utah or Arizona (and beating Stanford). No way around it really now that Washington is collapsing.

Cal (11-5, 1-2) @ UCLA (9-7, 1-2): UCLA is coming off a crucial OT home win over Stanford. It stopped the bleeding and gave UCLA their first quality win of the season. Cal has been in a free fall, picking up 3 ugly losses to CSU-Bakersfield, Wazzu and most recently being soundly defeated by USC. UCLA's RPI is 81st, while Cal is 100th. Looking at Cal's schedule, their deterioration will continue if they don't pick it up. Those losses to Wazzu and USC are a killer. Have to favor UCLA in this one given that it's at Pauley. Bruins are favored by 7.

#7 Arizona (14-1, 2-0) @ Oregon State (10-4, 1-1): Despite Sean Miller acknowledging Arizona having some issues figuring out how to mesh their talent, they sit top 10 and are coming off an 80-62 win over Oregon in Eugene. Must be nice. Oregon State is coming off a home win over Arizona State. Beavs have continued to play well and seize their winnable games. Well-coached team that seems all-in with the new staff. Arizona has an RPI of 9, while Oregon State is up to 132. Arizona just has far too much talent for Oregon St. Wildcats are only favored by 9 though.

Stanford (10-4, 2-1) @ USC (9-6, 1-2): Stanford is coming off an OT loss @ UCLA, while USC beat Cal soundly. Stanford's RPI remains solid at 44 (one of only 3 Pac teams in the top 50), while USC is 109. If the season ended now, Stanford is the 3rd and final Pac team to get a Dance bid. Stanford should be able to get this W on the road. Certainly the type of road game a Big Dance squad needs to win. USC is just not a good basketball team. However, you never know when Stanford will pull a "Dawkins" and lose a game like this, although it seems Johnny has passed his virus on to Washington and Cal for now. Stanford is favored by 5.5.
 
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The pac12 isn't that strong. I'm hoping CU can recover.


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USC just missed the upset of Stanford on a last second shot


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Tuesday:

DePaul (9-8, 3-1) vs Georgetown (10-5, 2-2): 4 games into conference play and DePaul is sitting in a tie for first in the Big East standings. They lost by 17 at Villanova last time out, but Nova is a top 10 squad. DePaul has experienced a remarkable turnaround from their 6 game OOC losing streak. Their RPI is still low at 172 due to the damage they inflicted on themselves OOC. Georgetown has arguably underachieved a little thus far, but they've faced a really difficult schedule and not lost to anyone stupid. Still have a hard time wrapping my head around DePaul's hot start to Big East play. DePaul has proven they're dangerous at home (wins over Stanford, Xavier, Marquette), but Georgetown is a 6 point favorite.

Lipscomb (7-9, 1-0) vs USC-Upstate (13-4, 1-0): USC-Upstate had the best non-conference record of the Atlantic Sun teams and has the highest RPI. Lipscomb was projected to challenge for 2nd place in the A-Sun, but they haven't looked up to that thus far. They did get off to a nice start in conference play with a 19 point win, so hopefully they can have a successful conference season and improve their RPI from the lousy 279 it currently is.
 
Wednesday:

Buffs' RPI currently 68th

UCLA (10-7, 2-2) @ USC (9-7, 1-3): Bruins are coming off a much needed home sweep over the Bay Area schools. Now comes a key 3 game road swing to USC, Oregon and Oregon St. Bruins haven't won a road game yet this year and are 1-6 away from home (only win was over UAB on a neutral court). USC is definitely tougher at home and will be up for UCLA. UCLA's RPI is up to 76th while USC is 126th. Bruins are 4 point favorites.

Stanford (11-4, 3-1) @ Cal (11-6, 1-3): This appears to be a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. Stanford has been playing pretty well lately, although they did almost choke away a win at USC last time out. Meanwhile Cal has been a complete disaster in Pac play so far, having lost to Wazzu at home and gotten waxed at USC. Cal is down, but they shouldn't be as bad as they've looked lately. It'll be interesting to see if a big rivalry game like this wakes them up. Stanford is definitely eyeing a top 4 Pac seed, this is the type of road game you need to win to get one of the Vegas byes. Stanford's RPI is 41st, while Cal's has tumbled to 114th. Stanford is favored by 2.5.

Air Force (8-7, 1-3) @ New Mexico (11-5, 3-1): Falcons are coming off a 92-87 loss to CSU in the Springs. Encouraging performance by AFA even though they fell. New Mexico was downright bad for much of their OOC, but they appear to be figuring it out a bit in MWC play (or else just doing better because the MWC stinks this year). Don't like Air Force's chances on the road at the Pit. Air Force's RPI is still in brutal territory at 267th. Lobos are favored by 10.

Colorado State (15-2, 2-2) vs Nevada (6-9, 2-1): Rams have seemingly not been playing well lately. 2-2 MWC record after a narrow win over Air Force. It feels like they're in a bit of a rut, but when you go through their season more closely you realize winning close games is what they've been doing for the most part. At some point it stops being luck -- seems like the Rams have a knack for winning most close games. CSU is currently in an easy portion of their MWC schedule (although in this year's MWC, it rarely gets difficult). Their RPI is still in excellent shape at 20th. Nevada is a pretty bad squad, bottom half MWC. Rams should grind out a win at home, they're favored by 9.5.

Georgia (9-5, 0-2) @ Vanderbilt (11-4, 1-1): Disappointing start to SEC play by Georgia, blowing leads against LSU and Arkansas. Those were chances for decent wins that may very well come back to haunt Georgia. Georgia's RPI is down to 40th. Vanderbilt is seemingly another in the vast group of mediocre SEC teams. Georgia has got to find some road wins against some of these teams if they're to have any hope of a Dance ticket. Vanderbilt is favored by 2.5.

#25 Wyoming (15-2, 4-0) vs San Diego State (12-4, 2-1): Wyoming currently sits alone atop the MWC. For once, they haven't fallen apart in conference play (at least not yet). SDSU is the MWC favorite, so this is a huge home game for the Pokes. SDSU has shown what they're capable of with a win over Utah and 2 point loss to Arizona in Las Vegas. However, they've been shaky in true road games (0-3 including a loss to Fresno State). Arena is going to be rocking, should be a fun game. Wyoming's RPI remains low at 77th due to their embarrassingly weak OOC. Wyoming needs some key wins. Pokes are favored by 1.5.
 
Updated the OP. Resume's looking a little better. Need some teams to get out of the 200+ range (especially Hawai'i) and need some Top 100 wins. Auburn is on the cusp of Top 100, so that's the first target. DePaul has a chance to get there considering the strength of the Big East opponent RPIs.
 
So far so good tonight.

Georgia up 13 at Vandy

Colorado State up 45 on Nevada

UCLA up 10 at USC

AFA even within 5 at New Mexico

All in early second half
 
UCLA wins big at USC

Georgia gets a much needed road win at Vanderbilt

Colorado State beats Nevada by 56

Air Force falls at New Mexico
 
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Stanford wins by 10 at Cal.

Wyoming falls at home by 8 to SDSU. Pokes blew a big opportunity, this was a win they badly needed to build a resume.
 
Thursday:

Buffs (9-6, 2-1) are @ #10 Arizona (14-2, 2-1): Second brutal road game in a row for the Buffs. Arizona has had some gelling issues that reared their head at Oregon St in their last game and at UNLV a couple weeks ago. However, this game is in Tucson where Arizona has been excellent to date. Only Gonzaga has managed to play them competitively down there so far this season. RPI wise, CU sits 72nd while Arizona is 12th. A road game against an opponent with an RPI that high likely won't drop CU at all with an (expected) loss. Hope to see XJ healthy and the Buffs come out and play tough. Not seeing a line for this one, but if it's out there I'd guess it's Arizona favored by around 12-14.

Oregon State (11-4, 2-1) @ Washington (11-4, 0-3): Oregon State's first game since their huge win over Arizona. Meanwhile, Washington has lost 4 in a row and sits winless in the Pac. Basically, who the hell knows what to make of this one. Washington was a top 15 team that's now in the basement and Oregon State can beat top 10 teams now. Washington's RPI is 78th while Oregon State's is 99th. I'll guess that OSU is likely hung over and Washington is ready to get a W for the first time since December 22nd. Huskies are favored by 6.5.

#8 Utah (13-2, 3-0) @ Arizona State (8-8, 0-3): Big road trip for Utah, have to wonder if they're looking ahead to visiting Tucson this weekend. ASU is 0-3 but has yet to play a Pac home game. ASU is pretty bad and Utah is damn good, but Oregon State/Arizona showed anything can happen in this conference. Utah's RPI is 10th, ASU's is 151st. Seems people are a bit hesitant in this one -- Utes are only favored by 6.

Oregon (12-4, 2-1) @ Washington State (8-7, 2-1): Wazzu has been a nice surprise in conference play with road wins over Washington and Cal. Meanwhile this is Oregon's first Pac road game. Oregon's RPI is 86th, Wazzu's is 128th. Oregon is a walking definition of mediocre while Wazzu is playing much better than the absolute disaster they were in the OOC. Not sure what to make of this one since it's in Pullman, good chance it's a close one. Ducks are favored by 2.5.

George Washington (12-4, 2-1) vs Richmond (9-7, 2-1): GW is coming off a disappointing loss @ LaSalle. Their RPI has fallen to 46th. GW may not be able to keep pace with VCU in the A10, but they should be able to put up an impressive conference record and push for 2nd. Richmond is never an easy out, but this is a game GW should win at home. Colonials are 6.5 favorites.

Auburn (9-6, 1-1) @ Florida (9-6, 2-0): Auburn hits the road against an underachieving Gator squad. Auburn's RPI is 104th -- we could really use Auburn as a top 100 win. I like Auburn's chances to win their share of SEC games and finish middle of the pack, but I think they could get killed in Gainesville. Maybe I'm overrating UF or just still scarred by how bad Auburn was in Boulder, but I don't like their chances in this one. Gators are favored by 14.

Drexel (3-12, 1-3) vs James Madison (9-8, 2-2): Drexel remains a major disappointment. RPI is 260th. This is a winnable game for them against JMU at home. Hopefully Drexel can find their footing. They're actually even favored by 1.5.
 
Wazzu beats Oregon in OT, 108-99.

Credit to Wazzu and [MENTION=127]Goose[/MENTION]. Wazzu was an embarrassment during OOC play but has put together an excellent start to Pac play. Wins in Seattle and Berkeley, and now over Oregon in Pullman. Only loss was a hard fought game in Palo Alto. Cougs are 3-1 and that's huge considering ASU is 0-4 and a host of others only have 1 win. Cougs are in good position to not finish 12th.

This is also good news for CU as we play Wazzu twice and Oregon only once. Also, Oregon is only 2-2 despite having a pretty favorable early Pac schedule (Already played ASU and OSU at home + Wazzu away). Helps CU's chances of finishing above the Ducks.

CU's RPI stayed essentially the same tonight. 73rd.
 
Saturday:

Our Buffs (9-7, 2-2) are @ Arizona State (8-9, 0-4): After the expected losses in SLC and Tucson, this game is now extremely important for CU. You've got to get wins on the road against teams like ASU. Hopefully Josh and XJ are ready to go. We need this even…even for NIT hopes. ASU is the only winless team left in Pac play, but they've only played 1 home game (Utah). CU's RPI is 73rd, ASU's 158th. ASU is favored by 4, which either means the lack of respect is even deeper than I thought, or Josh and XJ not playing against Tucson scared everyone off. Just ****ing win, however ugly. Any road win is a good win.

#8 Utah (14-2, 4-0) @ #10 Arizona (15-2, 3-1): Perhaps the first of 3 meetings for these two? I think Utah has been the more impressive of the two to this point (Kansas and SDSU are "better" losses than Oregon State and UNLV, among other things) but this one is in Tucson and Arizona is a regular in these big games which I do believe is important. Arizona's RPI is 10th, Utah's 11th. Arizona is favored by 4.

Georgia (10-5, 1-2) vs Florida (10-6, 3-0): Very important home game for Georgia. Dawgs are coming off a decent road win at Vanderbilt. However, they've already blown a winnable home game against Arkansas and you don't want to lose a second SEC home game with Kentucky still to come. UF was a disappointment in the OOC but seems on their way to running up a solid SEC record. Georgia's RPI is in good shape at 31st.

Oregon State (11-5, 2-2) @ Washington State (9-7, 3-1): These two have been full of surprises in Pac play: OSU has beaten Arizona, while Wazzu is already on 3 wins including 2 on the road. Wazzu's RPI is 116th, Oregon State's 118th. I think Wazzu has to have the edge since it's in Pullman, but it's hard to place a ton of confidence in either the Beavs or Cougs. Wazzu is favored by 1.

Stanford (12-4, 4-1) vs UConn (9-6, 2-2): Stanford steps OOC for a weirdly scheduled game. Stanford has been pretty solid this season while UConn has been a disappointment. Stanford's RPI is in great shape at 28th. Even with UConn underachieving, the Pac12 did so much damage OOC that a win over UConn would be a welcomed addition. Stanford is favored by 4.

Auburn (9-7, 1-2) vs South Carolina (10-5, 1-2): Type of home game Auburn can hopefully win in order to finish middle of the road in the SEC. Auburn's RPI is 120th. South Carolina is improved under Martin and is exceeding expectations this year but isn't there yet. Gamecocks are favored by 2.

George Washington (13-4, 3-1) vs George Mason (6-10, 1-3): GW has been shaky in recent games, escaping a bad Saint Louis side by 3 at home, getting killed @ LaSalle, and most recently needing 2OT to narrowly edge out a mediocre Richmond side at home. They aren't playing at the level they were in Hawaii. Their RPI remains in OK shape at 40th. George Mason is just not good this year, one of the bottom A10 teams. GW should win this at home, even if they continue their funk. Colonials are favored by 11.5.

Colorado State (16-2, 3-2) @ San Jose State (2-15, 0-5): CSU seemed to be trying to make some sort of statement last time out by beating up on an awful Nevada squad by 56 points. Unfortunately, SJSU is even worse than Nevada. SJSU is a candidate for worst team in all of D1. They haven't defeated a single D1 opponent all year. CSU's RPI is in great shape at 26th, but playing SJSU won't be doing the Rams any favors in that department. CSU is favored by 18.

#25 Wyoming (15-3, 4-1) @ Fresno State (9-9, 4-1): Wyo is coming off a home loss to SDSU which was a killer for their Dance hopes. Fresno has been the surprise in MWC play thus far. Wyo needs this win both to keep pace with SDSU in the MWC race and to get their RPI up…it's now down to 95th. Hard to see how Wyo can recover from their weak OOC and build a resume. Pokes are favored by 2.


Air Force (8-6, 1-4) @ Utah State (9-7, 2-2): AFA has played CSU and New Mexico tough in their last 2 games despite dropping both. Their RPI remains really poor at 261st. Hopefully they can steal a road win against this pretty suspect USU side to get that RPI up. USU is favored by 6.5.

San Francisco (8-10, 2-4) @ Santa Clara (8-10, 2-4): Winnable road game for USF. Dons sit 178th in the RPI which is disappointing, they should be higher than that. Santa Clara is a bottom half WCC team so hopefully USF can get this W. Dons are favored by 2.

Northern Colorado (8-7, 3-1) @ North Dakota (5-10, 1-3): UNC is off to a nice start in Big Sky play. This is a road win they need with difficult road games @ Eastern Washington and Idaho up next. North Dakota is in the bottom few in the Big Sky. Unfortunately UNC's RPI remains "meh" at 238th. They're favored by 2 in this one.

Drexel (3-13, 1-4) @ Delaware (3-13, 2-3): Battle of the pathetic 3-13 teams. Drexel's nightmare of a season continues…no idea how they've become this poor. Their RPI is down to a worthless 272nd. Perhaps they can get a road win here over an equally abysmal Delaware side. Blue Hens are only favored by 3.

Hawaii (13-5, 1-1) @ UC-Riverside (8-9, 1-2): Hawaii plays on the mainland for the first time since December 6th. UC-Riverside is a bottom tier Big West side, but unfortunately it's hard to have much confidence in Hawaii against anyone on the mainland. However, if they're going to get some conference road wins it will come in a game like this. Hawaii's RPI remains a disappointing 200th -- by far the biggest stain on CU's resume. Hawaii is a 1 point underdog in this one.

Lipscomb (8-9, 2-0) @ Kennesaw State (5-13, 0-2): Lipscomb is off to a nice start in Atlantic Sun play. This is a road game they need to get -- Kennesaw has the worst overall record in the conference. Lipscomb's RPI remains bad at 251st, but they're trending upwards lately.
 
Nice win by Georgia over Florida, 73-61.

Lipscomb continues their winning streak with a 91-77 win at Kennesaw State
 
CVilleBuff said:
Nice win by Georgia over Florida, 73-61.

Lipscomb continues their winning streak with a 91-77 win at Kennesaw State
Click to expand...

Very positive start to the day.

UNCo is starting to extend on the road at North Dakota. 6-0 run to start the 2nd to go up by 9.

Drexel just getting tipped off at Delaware, but an early 8-4 lead.
 
Buffnik said:
Very positive start to the day.

UNCo is starting to extend on the road at North Dakota. 6-0 run to start the 2nd to go up by 9.

Drexel just getting tipped off at Delaware, but an early 8-4 lead.
Click to expand...

UNC puts away North Dakota in OT. Nice job to take care of business on the road.

Drexel up 11 at Delaware early in second half

GW up 5 on George Mason late in first half
 
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