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Official RPI Watch 2014-15

BYU is very solid, but USF was picked 4th in the WCC and BYU 2nd. To be down 30+ at home is unacceptable. I wonder if Walters is losing this team…he is not an easy guy to play for.

I saw Doolin playing well for UNLV vs. KU today.
 
Williams Goss chokes with the ball in his hands and double dribbles to lose possession with 29.9 seconds left, but UW was already down 4. Not been a pretty game from them on offense.
 
Nice to have Washington in an 0-2 Pac hole. They have an easy 3 game home stand (Wazzu, OSU, Oregon) coming up before heading to Boulder and SLC. Stanford has a 3 game road swing (UCLA, USC, Cal) coming up and will take a loss or two.
 
Monday:

Slow night for CU opponents

Buffs enter the week with an RPI of 76. A roadie at Utah won't do any harm - even with a loss - as Utah's RPI is 16. Full Pac RPI entering the week: Arizona 13, Utah 16, Stanford 29, Washington 40, Colorado 76, Oregon 97, Cal 98, UCLA 107, USC 111, Oregon St 140, Arizona St 141, Washington St 148. The good news is everyone is in the top 150, a huge step forward over where Wazzu and Oregon St previously were. The bad news is Oregon, Cal and UCLA all sitting ~100. A strong Pac needs those 3 all inside or pushing top 50, not top 100.

Drexel (2-10, 0-1) vs William & Mary (7-5, 1-0): Drexel's disaster of a season continued as they opened CAA play with a home loss to Elon. Now comes William & Mary, the preseason #2 in the CAA. Drexel's RPI sits 247. A win over 109 William & Mary would bring a big boost. Drexel really should not be this bad. Unfortunately a win is unlikely, William & Mary are 5 point favorites.

Lipscomb (5-9) vs Rhodes: Non D1 opponent so no RPI effect. Lipscomb's RPI currently sits 281.
 
Tuesday:

Georgia (9-3, 0-0) vs #23 Arkansas (11-2, 0-0): Start of SEC play for the Dawgs is a very important game. This year's SEC is a whole lot of mediocre/bad + Kentucky. That means realistic chances for quality wins will be a rarity. Arkansas provides Georgia such a chance. Dawgs have an excellent RPI of 20, while Arkansas sits 35. Dawgs are 3 point favorites.

George Washington (11-3, 1-0) vs Saint Louis (8-6, 0-1): GW remains hot after their Diamond Head triumph. They've got some nice OOC wins and an RPI in great shape at 27. Saint Louis is down this year, a far cry from what they were. Colonials should win comfortably at home, they're favored by 17.5

Auburn (8-5, 0-0) @ Vanderbilt (10-3, 0-0): Start of SEC play for Auburn. They've quietly gone and won 5 straight and brought their RPI up to 117. The hope here is Pearl can get Auburn to click in conference play and take advantage of many of the near endless "winnable" games SEC play throws at them and finish middle of the pack. Vanderbilt is certainly one of those "winnables", they're nothing special (for instance, they're coming off a 2OT win over Yale). A road win in Nashville over 72 Vandy would likely vault Auburn into the top 100 for now. Commodores are favored by 7.5.
 
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That loss hurts. SEC won't offer many realistic top 50 wins for Georgia's resume and they blow one of the very few chances in Athens.

GW beat Saint Louis despite playing poorly.
 
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Wednesday:

Our Buffs (9-5, 2-0) are @ #9 Utah (12-2, 2-0). This is the best team we've faced all season to this point. Utes are solid everywhere, especially in their shooting percentage (6th nationally) and points allowed (11th nationally). Utah's style isn't a bad one for us, they just simply have been executing far better and their bench has stepped up while ours has struggled. Utes sit 15 in RPI while CU sits 80. A loss isn't going to do any harm and a win would obviously vault CU far up the rankings. If CU is to ever work its way back into the bubble discussion quality wins will have to happen. I hope to see our hustle and movement on display on the road. If it's not, we'll be out of the game early. Playing Utah and Arizona back to back away is ridiculous, but I'd rather get these out of the way early in the conference slate and string together a run afterwards. Utes are favored by 11.5.

Cal (11-4, 1-1) @ USC (8-6, 0-2): Desperate game for these two. Cal has been as weird as they come with a win over Washington sandwiched between embarrassing losses to CSU-Bakersfield and Wazzu. USC got slaughtered in Boulder and SLC. Cal really needs this win as their next two are @ UCLA and @ Stanford. If Cal falls here, they'll be all but out of realistically getting a top 4 seed already (you can't lose to Wazzu and USC and pull that off). Cal sits with an RPI of 97, USC 117. Cal is favored by 1.

DePaul (8-7, 2-0) @ Creighton (9-6, 0-2): DePaul has shot out to a 2-0 Big East record with wins over Xavier and Marquette, much to everyone's surprise. Add in their home win at Stanford, and DePaul has shown they're not a pushover at home. Unfortunately, this game is on the road where they've been horrendous. However, Creighton is not what they've been in years past -- not even close. They'll be in the bottom half of the Big East. DePaul's RPI sits 206, Creighton's 104. Creighton is favored by 9.

Air Force (7-6, 0-2) vs San Jose State (2-12, 0-2): This is one MWC game Air Force should win, and win pretty comfortably. SJSU is horrendous --worst team in the MWC and it's not close. They haven't defeated a D1 opponent all season. Air Force's RPI sits 241, while SJSU is 328. This won't do much for AFA's RPI, but a conference win is never a bad thing. Falcons are favored by 13.5 and simply have to take care of business in this one

Wyoming (13-2, 2-0) @ Colorado State (14-1, 1-1): Big game for both teams. CSU is coming off a loss @ New Mexico. CSU has not been playing particularly well recently. I suspect they may have been feeling the pressure of their (previously) undefeated record. CSU's RPI still sits an excellent 14, while Wyoming sits 122nd due to an embarrassingly weak OOC. If Wyoming is to make a push for a Dance bid they're going to need to take advantage of the quality win opportunities the MWC provides such as this. Rams are favored by 4.5.

Hawaii (12-4, 0-0) vs Cal Poly (7-5, 0-0): Start of Big West play for Hawaii. Preseason, both these two were picked middle of the pack in the Big West. Hopefully Hawaii can prove better than that. They've shown they're capable with wins over CU, Nebraska, Pittsburgh and a 1 point OT loss to Wichita State. Hawaii is really solid at home, the problem is whether they can win on the mainland. Hawaii's RPI remains low at 174 while Cal Poly sits 121. Rainbow Warriors should get this win at home. They're favored by 4.
 
DePaul wins @ Creighton by 10. Now 3-0 in the Big East. Wow

Air Force smashes lowly SJSU

Wyoming goes into Moby and beats Colorado St.
 
USC is straight beating the **** out of Cal. Highly unlikely we lose to Cal in Boulder, they are a mess.
 
USC tops Cal 72-57. USC now 9-6 (1-2), Cal falls to 11-5 (1-2). Cal is spiraling down quickly. Losses to Wazzu and USC already, that's a killer.
 
Thursday:

Buffs have an RPI of 74 after the Utah loss. Playing a top 10 Utah squad away + our opponents doing some good stuff actually saw CU rise 6 places on Wednesday despite the loss.

Arizona State (8-6, 0-1) @ Oregon State (9-4, 0-1): Battle of what appears to be two lowest third Pac squads. I'll be curious to see how this one turns out. Oregon State will definitely be viewing this as a must-win since it's in Corvallis. There won't be as many opportunities as favorable as this for a Pac12 win for the Beavs. On the flip side, ASU has to be viewing this as one of their best chances to grab a vital Pac12 road win. ASU's RPI is 134, OSU's 140. I think these two are pretty damn close ability-wise. I don't see a line for this one, but with the game being in Corvallis I'd probably make OSU the slight favorites. It's clear they've bought in to Tinkle as head coach and they're playing their asses off despite their limitations.

Stanford (10-3, 2-0) @ UCLA (8-7, 0-2): UCLA got exposed badly on their mountain road swing to start conference play. Alford couldn't hit anything despite coming in averaging over 17ppg. It raises the question of whether he can be UCLA's scorer against Pac12 competition. Still, UCLA figures to be much tougher at Pauley. UCLA desperately needs this win, while a win for Stanford would put them in good shape early to seize a top 4 Pac slot. Stanford's RPI is a solid 29, while UCLA is 106. Bruins' backs are against the wall big time, it'll be interesting to see if they come out and show fire or cave in. Stanford is favored by 1.

#7 Arizona (13-1, 1-0) @ Oregon (11-3, 1-0): Oregon is mediocre, that much is clear. Arizona has shown vulnerability on the road (lost at mediocre UNLV, narrowly beat UTEP). Arizona is clearly the better team but it'll be the usual raucous environment when Arizona travels. Perhaps Oregon can ride the home crowd and make it a game, but on paper Arizona should blow this open. Arizona's RPI is 12, Oregon's is 93. Arizona is favored by 5.5.

Drexel (2-11, 0-2) @ Towson (8-7, 1-1): Drexel is a wreck. These guys were supposed to be a top 4 CAA squad and they're not close. Towson is a lower half CAA team, but Drexel is incapable of winning at home right now, let alone away. Drexel's RPI sits 267. Towson is favored by 4.5.

San Francisco (7-9, 1-3) @ #6 Gonzaga (14-1, 3-0): Dons are also underachieving. They're supposed to be a top 4 WCC side and they've blown all chances for wins against their upper-tier WCC competition including a 31 point home loss to BYU most recently. Now they're 1-3 with 5 of their next 7 on the road. Rex Walters has been controversial and I suspect there may be locker room issues. Needless to say, Gonzaga in the kennel is quite likely going to get ugly for USF. USF's RPI sits 221. Gonzaga is favored by 22.5.

Northern Colorado (6-7, 1-1) vs Portland State (7-5, 1-1): Key Big Sky home game for UNC. These two are picked smack dab in the middle of the Big Sky. Portland State has won @ USC this year. UNC's RPI is 279. They're 7 point favorites in this one. It seems a bit high, but this is a game UNC really needs to win at home (think of it like a Big Sky version of CU facing Oregon at home)
 
UCLA and Stanford in OT

Oregon State beats Arizona State 55-47 in Corvallis

Northern Colorado beat Portland State

Drexel won @ Towson

San Francisco got killed @ Gonzaga

Edit: UCLA beats Stanford 86-81 in OT.
 
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Arizona cruised to victory over Oregon in Eugene, 80-62.

For RPI purposes, we're rooting against Oregon, Oregon State, Cal and Stanford in Pac-12 play. We only play those teams once, so they have less of an impact on CU's RPI than the other 7 teams.
 
For RPI purposes, we're rooting against Oregon, Oregon State, Cal and Stanford in Pac-12 play. We only play those teams once, so they have less of an impact on CU's RPI than the other 7 teams.

Yup. And despite Wednesday's embarrassment our RPI continues to rise. Now up to 68.
 
Saturday:

Buffs enter the day with an RPI of 67.

Washington State (7-7, 1-1) @ Washington (11-3, 0-2): Raise your hand if you predicted Wazzu would find more success on the Bay Area road swing than Washington would. Wazzu got a win in Berkeley while Washington was swept. Huskies have lost 3 in a row now, losing much of their early-season prestige. Huskies RPI has dropped to 46, while Wazzu is 151. Cougs have been playing better lately (they were a complete embarrassment for much of the OOC) but UW should win this one pretty comfortably at home. Huskies are favored by 11.5.

Arizona State (8-7, 0-2) @ Oregon (11-4, 1-1): ASU is coming off a disappointing loss @ OSU while Oregon is coming off getting beaten badly by Arizona. Oregon is above ASU in the Pac12 pecking order IMO. Oregon is in the middle pack while ASU is down near the bottom. Ducks RPI is 102, while the Sun Devils are 141. Oregon should win this one in Eugene, although they're quite inconsistent so you never really know. Ducks are favored by 5.5.

George Washington (12-3, 2-0) @ LaSalle (8-7, 0-2): GW has gotten off to a winning start in A10 play, but truth be told they haven't been playing their best ball despite the wins continuing (narrow wins over St. Joes and Saint Louis). LaSalle is a middle of the road A10 squad. GW should win on paper, but with this one on the road it will probably be close. GW's RPI remains really solid at 25. They're 2 point favorites in this one.

Colorado State (14-2, 1-2) @ Air Force (8-6, 1-2): Rams have lost two in a row after their 14-0 start. CSU is definitely in a bit of a funk right now and it goes back further than two games. They simply haven't been playing very well for a couple weeks now. Their RPI remains solid at 24, while Air Force sits 250. Rams should get back into the win column here, even if they aren't at their best. CSU is favored by 5.

DePaul (9-7, 3-0) @ #8 Villanova (14-1, 2-1): DePaul is off to an excellent start in Big East play. Remarkable turnaround considering how horrendous they were at Diamond Head. Their RPI now sits 177. Villanova appears to be the best in the Big East. Good news is DePaul is now competitive is a road game like this will raise their RPI even with a loss. Villanova is favored by 21.

San Francisco (7-10, 1-4) @ Portland 11-5 (2-2): San Fran is becoming a major disappointment as the losses pile up. These guys should be winning 20 games, not sitting in the basement of the WCC. Still time for a turnaround, but I sense Walters is losing this team. Portland is better than expected this year. USF's RPI is a disappointing 204. Dons could really use a win here. Portland is favored by 6.5.

Wyoming (14-2, 3-0) vs Boise State (10-5, 0-2): Wyoming is off to a nice start in MWC play, most recently winning in Ft. Collins. Boise St has been a disappointing so far this year. They were picked 2nd in the MWC preseason and haven't been playing at that level. Wyo's RPI sits 93, while Boise St is 70. Cowboys should win this one at home. Boise St remains somewhat dangerous though. Wyo is favored by 6.

Auburn (8-6, 0-1) vs Missouri (7-7, 1-0): Key home game for Auburn. SEC pecking order is largely wide open and up for grabs. Auburn can pick up a fair amount of conference wins finish in the middle if they play smart and take care of business at home in games like this. Auburn's RPI is 110, Mizzou's 139. Auburn is favored by 6.

Lipscomb (6-9, 0-0) vs Northern Kentucky (6-9, 0-0): Start of Atlantic Sun play for Lipscomb. Lipscomb was picked 2nd in the ASun preseason. Not sure they're at that level, but this seems like a home game Lipscomb needs to get. Lipscomb's RPI sits 285.

Northern Colorado (7-7, 2-1) vs Sacramento State (9-5, 3-0): Key home game for UNC. Sac State seems like a top half Big Sky squad. Bears have started conference play winning the games they should. They could really use this win over Sac State as a 3 game road swing is next. UNC's RPI is 265, they're 3 point favorites in this one.

Georgia (9-4, 0-1) @ LSU (11-3, 0-1): UGA blew a crucial chance for a win over ranked Arkansas in Athens last time out. Now they have to go on the road to face a decent LSU side. If UGA has realistic Big Dance ambitions, they've got to get some wins like this. UGA's RPI remains solid at 28 and LSU would be a quality road win (LSU is 49). Not sure I see it in Baton Rouge, but hope I'm wrong. LSU is favored by 3.

Hawaii (12-5, 0-1) vs Cal State-Northridge (4-12, 0-1): Hawaii is coming off a disappointing OT home loss to Cal Poly. Can't lose home games like that, especially when you have the road disadvantage Hawaii does. Hawaii's RPI now sits 199. CSU-Northridge was supposed to be an upper tier Big West team but it's not working out that way. Hawaii has to get this win. Rainbow Warriors are favored by 8.5.
 
Wazzu wins @ Washington 80-77. Wow.

Back to back wins in Berkeley and Seattle for Wazzu.

And Washington has now lost 4 in a row…collapse.

Wazzu now 8-7 (2-1), Washington falls to 11-4 (0-3)
 
Washington State must be better then expected. Washington could be staring at an 0-6 start in Conference play if they don't beat Oregon next.
 
Oregon beat ASU 59-56

Auburn took care of business against Mizzou.

Wyo beat Boise

Lipscomb won their conference opener

Only real unfortunate news is GW's loss at LaSalle
 
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