Official Season Predictions

[Medford M.]

This is Tad's best team he has had at CU. Is the conference better? Yeah, but Tad has more too. 24 wins heading into NCAAs if we only win one in the Pac tournament.

 

[Yung Buffalo]

Non Conf: 11-2
Conference: 13-5
Overall: 25-8
Season: 2nd in Pac-12 regular season. Lose in the semi-finals of the Pac-12 tournament. Earn a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament and lose in the Sweet 16.

Best Rookie: Wes Gordon
Most Surprising Player: Askia Booker
Bold Prediction: We beat Kansas, Oklahoma State and Baylor while losing 1 of 3 from CSU/Wyoming/Air Force and 1 of 2 from Harvard/UCSB

Dinwiddie makes first team All-Conference and gets drafted as a lottery pick. Scott earns second team honors and returns to play again along with Xavier Johnson.

 

[rolandftw]

Non Conference: 10-3 (Losses to: KU, Harvard, CSU)
Conference: 12-6 (Losses: @Washington, @Arizona, @ASU, @UCLA, @Stanford, @Cal)

Not going to bother attempting to predict the Tournament as much of that depends on the matchup, which is too hard to predict

 

[tante]

Why do people argue about other people predictions?

 

[Quattro]

Why do people argue about other people predictions?

What else are we gonna do until Friday?

 

[BuffTE41]

We're going 0-31. Josh Scott, Spencer Dinwiddie, Xavier Johnson and Wesley Gordon all transfer. Tad Boyle get's fired. The CEC gets bulldozed. CU gets kicked out of the Pac-12 and cancels all athletic programs.

Boulder is wiped off the face of the Earth in a cataclysmic meteor impact while CSU wins the national championship in basketball and Nebraska wins it in football.

 

[Tractor]

Youth will cause us some issues early.

We lose to Baylor, this indirectly leads to us losing to Wyoming because we are just soooo drained.

We lose 1 out of Harvard, @CSU, @AirForce.

We lose to Kansas, but this is the game we learn what kind of effort is needed to win.

Beat OSU in Vegas.

Factoring in one extra loss: 8-5 noncon DOOOOOOMMMMM

Conference,

we go 7-2 at home. Lose UCLA and 1 of Oregon/Someteamthatshouldntbeatus. Beat both Zonas at home.

We go 6-3 on the road. We split each of the first 3 road trips (Washington,zona, socal) but go undefeated down the stretch (@Utah, and NorCals).

That would put us at 21-10 going into the tourney, but we'd be on a 6 game winning streak to finish the year. Our team has figured this out.

13-5 in conference gives us a first round bye, we make it to the finals.

Playing well going into selection Sunday. Get a 6 seed, flirt with elite 8.




Spencer (first round, but not lottery) and Jam Scott (late first round) go pro.
First #isitNovemberyet from a CU fan happens 4 days after the title game.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

I don't understand why anyone is even questioning the Buffs losing to Air Force at all....They lost a lot off of last year's team and should not be very good this year.

 

[Da Lama]

I don't understand why anyone is even questioning the Buffs losing to Air Force at all....They lost a lot off of last year's team and should not be very good this year.

THIS. Air Force is going to be BAD, BAD, BAD this year.

 

[Goose]

I don't understand why anyone is even questioning the Buffs losing to Air Force at all....They lost a lot off of last year's team and should not be very good this year.

I think the main reason people mention AFA is because they're a hard to play team with the style they throw out there. It's tough to adjust and requires a lot of discipline. They're the proverbial "death by paper cut" team. Add in the fact that they have a decent home court advantage and have extra "in-state" motivation, and I can see why people are nervous.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

I think the main reason people mention AFA is because they're a hard to play team with the style they throw out there. It's tough to adjust and requires a lot of discipline. They're the proverbial "death by paper cut" team. Add in the fact that they have a decent home court advantage and have extra "in-state" motivation, and I can see why people are nervous.

AFA is close enough, and tix are cheap enough there is no reason that there should not be a sizable black and gold contingent at the game to negate some of that.

 

[Medford M.]

I can't fathom any way we lose to CSU. I will be embarrassed if we let that sorry bunch beat us. As for AFA, I think we destroy them in the paint. Lots of foul trouble for them and a pretty easy victory.

 

[jwhite17]

I can't fathom any way we lose to CSU. I will be embarrassed if we let that sorry bunch beat us. As for AFA, I think we destroy them in the paint. Lots of foul trouble for them and a pretty easy victory.

I agree with this. Air Force lost practically all their senior contributors that were any good (especially Michael Lyons), so we should beat them handily even with youth on our roster. They are very inexperienced and just lost to Regis.

CSU will be tougher, but again, they lost so much that I expect us to win that game if we are finally over our road woes.

As for my predictions:

Non Conf: 9-4 (we beat everyone we are supposed to except CSU (crowd will be up for CU), and we lose to Harvard, Okie State and Baylor but we finally beat Kansas at home.

Conference: 12-6 (we beat someone on the road we aren't suppose to and we lose to someone at home from either Zona/UCLA because of matchups).

Overall: 21-10 before post season play

Season: 4th in Pac-12 regular season. Lose in the finals of the Pac-12 tournament. Earn a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament and lose in the Sweet 16 with Dinwiddie leading us and taking charge of games.

Best Veteran: Josh Scott
Best Rookie: Dustin THomas
Most Disappointing: Askia Booker
Most Surprising Player: Tre Fletcher
Bold Prediction: We beat Kansas

Dinwiddie makes first team All-Conference and gets drafted in the top 15. Scott earns first team honors and XJ earns second team honors, and Thomas earns a spot on the Pac 12 frosh team.​

 

[Quattro]

Say you expect to win the CSU game....predict a loss to CSU...interesting. There crowd can be up for the game, doesn't mean that will overcome their massive talent deficit. We're not losing to those ****ers, and shouldn't have in 2011. We have way more talent and way more game experience than they do and they have a whole lotta unkowns to be predicting a loss to a bad team (#102 vs. #39 in the KenPom Rankings).

We beat Kansas but lose to Harvard at home? Don't see that happening, especially since Harvard isn't a pushover and The Keg will be amped up and so will the players. If we have one home loss this year, it will be to KU. Harvard is a good team, but we are a very, very good home team with a excellent home court advantage (wish I could find the stat but altitude gives us a significant advantage) and will be again this year. Neutral court against Harvard? Bets are off. Home game against Harvard? We win it. Also, playing at altitude is a bitch...and then you have the CUnit providing a crazy atmosphere. There is a reason why Arizona players think The Keg is the hardest place to play in the PAC 12, and I'd extend that to the West itself.

 

[Quattro]

Here's the piece on altitude...

Home Team NET PPP (0.045) multiplied by the average possession total of the past five years (66.5) and we come up a nice little number of 2.99. That 2.99 represents the statistical advantage the home team earns each night just for playing at home. Ever wonder where the average of 3 points per home court comes into play? Of course, that’s an average possession game. In the event that a game should project to play to fewer, or more possessions, the statistical home court advantage would increase or decrease. Interestingly enough, Denver holds one of the greatest NET PPP of any team in the country the last five seasons when playing at home for one sole reason - altitude. When you put the NET PPP to the average possession total, you come up with a home court advantage of nearly 10.5 points! No home crowd, no rowdy student section, no tight or loose rim is worth 10.5 points, but according to the numbers, the results over the last five years in altitude truly show that much of an advantage.

Taking the experiment a step further, we can compare how a team’s results at home have compared with a team’s results in games played elsewhere. Take a look at Northern Arizona here, which should at this point shock the living daylights out of you. The record isn’t all that great, just 37-25, and appears to be about average in terms of wins and losses. At home, they’re outscoring opponents by an average of 0.10 PPP the last five seasons, but elsewhere, they’re losing games by an average of -0.11 PPP. That’s right; the same roster plays 0.21 PPP BETTER AT HOME! I tried to find any other reason as to why this could be and why the significant advantage. I looked at injuries, rosters, styles, and just about every other thing that would impact the results as drastic as what the numbers truly show. I found nothing. And the more remarkable thing is that while most will point to a raucous crowd or great student section being a great indicator of a home court advantage, that certainly isn't’ the case at Walkup Skydome who only seats approximately 7,000 people. Do you want to know what Northern Arizona’s average attendance was last season? They didn’t sell out all 7,000 for any game. In fact, they had trouble topping 7,000 for the year.Their average attendance was 646 people per game!

http://nropp.com/b19-altitude.html

 

[jwhite17]

Say you expect to win the CSU game....predict a loss to CSU...interesting. There crowd can be up for the game, doesn't mean that will overcome their massive talent deficit. We're not losing to those ****ers, and shouldn't have in 2011. We have way more talent and way more game experience than they do and they have a whole lotta unkowns to be predicting a loss to a bad team (#102 vs. #39 in the KenPom Rankings).

We beat Kansas but lose to Harvard at home? Don't see that happening, especially since Harvard isn't a pushover and The Keg will be amped up and so will the players. If we have one home loss this year, it will be to KU. Harvard is a good team, but we are a very, very good home team with a excellent home court advantage (wish I could find the stat but altitude gives us a significant advantage) and will be again this year. Neutral court against Harvard? Bets are off. Home game against Harvard? We win it. Also, playing at altitude is a bitch...and then you have the CUnit providing a crazy atmosphere. There is a reason why Arizona players think The Keg is the hardest place to play in the PAC 12, and I'd extend that to the West itself.

I hope you are right. I really love shutting up little brother!

I expect to beat CSU due to talent but Boyle's team have been to crap the bed on the road occasionally to less talented teams (see at Utah last year, almost lost to Utah two years ago, at Oregon State two years ago, at CSU three years ago with Burks, Higgins, Relphorde, Roberson, knutson team, all the terrible road losses from the 2010 team), so I have to put in some crazy loss on the road, and CSU fits the bill. In addition, the CSU is right before KU, so I can see our guys looking ahead to KU, especially if CSU starts off slowly.

As for KU vs. Harvard, I'm a big believer in altitude advantage (great find btw), and I sincerely hope Tad actually runs teams from sea level off the court this year with our new depth/perceived depth. We really can become Missouri of 2009-2011 with Mike Anderson, maybe even better. Those teams were destroy opponents at home.

Last year, I thought we didn't take advantage of it (see UCLA at home and ASU at home). Neither of those teams were particularly deep, but neither were we. I hope it changes this year. I'm really excited to see our team post Roberson. We might not be as good defensively, at least at first, but i expect our offense to really improve with some very talented playmakers starting and on the bench.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Say you expect to win the CSU game....predict a loss to CSU...interesting. There crowd can be up for the game, doesn't mean that will overcome their massive talent deficit. We're not losing to those ****ers, and shouldn't have in 2011. We have way more talent and way more game experience than they do and they have a whole lotta unkowns to be predicting a loss to a bad team (#102 vs. #39 in the KenPom Rankings).

We beat Kansas but lose to Harvard at home? Don't see that happening, especially since Harvard isn't a pushover and The Keg will be amped up and so will the players. If we have one home loss this year, it will be to KU. Harvard is a good team, but we are a very, very good home team with a excellent home court advantage (wish I could find the stat but altitude gives us a significant advantage) and will be again this year. Neutral court against Harvard? Bets are off. Home game against Harvard? We win it. Also, playing at altitude is a bitch...and then you have the CUnit providing a crazy atmosphere. There is a reason why Arizona players think The Keg is the hardest place to play in the PAC 12, and I'd extend that to the West itself.

It's college basketball. **** happens. To everyone. You probably didn't "see" a home loss to Oregon State last year or getting absolutely pounded up the rear at Utah last year, either. Harvard is top 35, and realistically closer to top 25.

 

[Darth Snow]

It's college basketball. **** happens. To everyone. You probably didn't "see" a home loss to Oregon State last year or getting absolutely pounded up the rear at Utah last year, either. Harvard is top 35, and realistically closer to top 25.

when it comes to the buffs, Tini sees everything coming up heads or edge, never tails.

 

[Goose]

It's college basketball. **** happens. To everyone. You probably didn't "see" a home loss to Oregon State last year or getting absolutely pounded up the rear at Utah last year, either. Harvard is top 35, and realistically closer to top 25.

This. 100 times this. We're going to lose one non-conference game and one conference game we shouldn't. The key is to win one of each that we shouldn't too.

****, who saw Texas Southern putting a scare into us last year?

 

[Buffnik]

It's college basketball. **** happens. To everyone. You probably didn't "see" a home loss to Oregon State last year or getting absolutely pounded up the rear at Utah last year, either. Harvard is top 35, and realistically closer to top 25.

You're right, of course. But I'm also having some fun going into this one believing in the "dream season" scenario. We all know it "could" happen. It seems we have a few people who don't get the difference between "could" and "will".

 

[slider]

tini also had us undefeated at home

 

[Quattro]

tini also had us undefeated at home

Damn straight, so does Nik

 

[Quattro]

It's college basketball. **** happens. To everyone. You probably didn't "see" a home loss to Oregon State last year or getting absolutely pounded up the rear at Utah last year, either. Harvard is top 35, and realistically closer to top 25.

I completely understand that Harvard is a borderline 25 team, and the new rule change will help them a decent amount because they got to the free throw line a lot last year, but since this game is at home I think we win. Neutral site I think it's a coin flip and if we were at their place I think we lose. The adding 10.5 points for the home team due to altitude is huge and one of the reasons I think we will either sweep the home slate or drop one to Kansas. I just don't see us beating Kansas but losing to Harvard at home.

 

[absinthe]

Non-Conference - 10-3
Conference - 13-5
Finish 3rd in Pac 12 and lose Conference semis to Arizona
Enter NCAAT as a 7 seed and lose in the rnd of 64

could see conf being 12-6 as well, but this is where i am.

 

[BuffHerd]

Non-conf. 9-4
Conf. 12-6
Overall 21-10 D
Damn good season leads to a Conf. finals appearance and a sweet 16 spot!!!!

Regarding AFA. I attended the AFA-Wyoming game last year at AFA. That student section is only a hundred (maybe two-hndred) cadets, but they are loud and obnoxious. Last year Leonard Washington got "How's Probation?!" cheers everytime he touched the ball. He wanted to fight the whole students section by the end of the game.....laughed my ass off.

 

[jgisland]

I completely understand that Harvard is a borderline 25 team, and the new rule change will help them a decent amount because they got to the free throw line a lot last year, but since this game is at home I think we win. Neutral site I think it's a coin flip and if we were at their place I think we lose. The adding 10.5 points for the home team due to altitude is huge and one of the reasons I think we will either sweep the home slate or drop one to Kansas. I just don't see us beating Kansas but losing to Harvard at home.

Tini - the 10.5 is for DU, not CU. CU gets a .08 PPP at home advantage. So if CU averages 65 possessions this year it would be .08 X 65 =5.2 points. Not 10.5.

I don't actually even give CU that much, for my power ratings I give CU a 7.2 HCA/100 Possessions. Then I project a pace for the game and apply it. So say I project the game to have 65 possessions - I actually give CU 4.68 points (7.2*65/100).

 

[Quattro]

Tini - the 10.5 is for DU, not CU. CU gets a .08 PPP at home advantage. So if CU averages 65 possessions this year it would be .08 X 65 =5.2 points. Not 10.5.

I don't actually even give CU that much, for my power ratings I give CU a 7.2 HCA/100 Possessions. Then I project a pace for the game and apply it. So say I project the game to have 65 possessions - I actually give CU 4.68 points (7.2*65/100).

My bad, must not have read it closely. Either way, nearly 5 points without any other factor is significant.

 

[BuffTE41]

I don't see our bad losses coming in the OOC, but certainly see them in conference play after the team has been grinding for a few months.

Outside of Harvard, Baylor, Kansas and Okie State I don't see any potential losses in the OOC, except for MAYBE @ CSU. We outclass all of those teams by a lot.

 

[CVilleBuff]

This. 100 times this. We're going to lose one non-conference game and one conference game we shouldn't. The key is to win one of each that we shouldn't too.

****, who saw Texas Southern putting a scare into us last year?

If there's going to be one of THOSE this year that is a close one out of the blue, it's Arkansas State (although Arkansas State is certainly a notch above Texas Southern)

 

[CVilleBuff]

I don't see our bad losses coming in the OOC, but certainly see them in conference play after the team has been grinding for a few months.

Outside of Harvard, Baylor, Kansas and Okie State I don't see any potential losses in the OOC, except for MAYBE @ CSU. We outclass all of those teams by a lot.

Ending Pac-12 play with 5/7 on the road including the last 3 just downright sucks. Better put ourselves in great position early on because it's going to be a hell of a grind down the stretch.