Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Nor Cal Buff, Sep 13, 2009.
I'm surprised we're the favorites
I honestly would bet Wyoming and take the points... Last week I said it, but didn't really mean it... Today, I think I really mean it.
Perhaps we should all bet Wyoming moneyline and if they win, contribute it to the Hawk buyout fund.
This proves how great a job Hawk is really doing. Favorites in our first 3 games of the year :smile2:
So when we get blown out, does that prove how bad he is doing?
It furthermore shows how much this team is underachieving. :huh:
Vegas isn't stupid. In fact, they're really, really smart.
This shows that they're just as confused about the team performance so far as anyone.
objectively speaking, it's a good bet.
"Vegas" likely doesn't have info as good as many here with inside info. Here is how sports betting works:
Online book bookmaker.com throws out an opening number with extremely low max bets. They don't have to be very good because they won't get hurt by people who can only bet $100 at a time.
Sharp bettors who have computer models come in and move the line. Limits get raised. Line moves again due to sharp bettors who were waiting for limits to get raised. Rinse and repeat on a weekly basis.
This is the market's best interpretation of CU's performance so far but I don't think that they fully realize the scope of the problems here. As well, the sports betting market is generally too slow to adjust to teams being really awful. So while we may cover, I think this line is far too high, something that is rare as the sports betting market is generally fairly efficient.
Should add that online is more efficient than the Vegas casinos for a variety of reasons. The Vegas casinos are close to obsolete when it comes to setting a line and the amounts wagered on games.
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