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What programs could compete with only in-state talent?

No, we're actually talking about "What programs could compete with only in-State talent," so it is a what if Colorado HS's stayed home and that was CU's team. Correct, Colorado has a poor track record with local QB talent...

The best guys on Defense are pretty thin: JJ Billingsly (you mentioned him) Evan Worthington, and Marques Harris??
Ron Bradford, Greg Biekert, but yes "D" is thin
 
No, we're actually talking about "What programs could compete with only in-State talent," so it is a what if Colorado HS's stayed home and that was CU's team. Correct, Colorado has a poor track record with local QB talent...

The best guys on Defense are pretty thin: JJ Billingsely, Evan Worthington, and Marques Harris??
It’s as if you’re unwilling to read my posts.

Defense from Colorado has been abysmal. Calais Campbell is probably the best Colorado prep ever.
 
We would be last in the Pac12 South.
Quite a bit more P5 talent coming out of Utah and Arizona right now.
AZ would be halved, though, with 2 programs.

Utah would be halved if we counted BYU among P5. Otherwise, the Utes would be in slightly better shape than our Buffs.
 
Who are the best CU players from Colorado, regardless of position? Daniel Graham, Joel Klatt, Ryan Miller, Nate Solder, JJ Billingsley, Phil Lindsay, Dave Logan, Sean Tufts. Any others of note I'm missing? Point is, most outstanding Colorado preps don't go to CU

A few more names to add to the list:
Greg Biekert
Joel Steed
Jeremy Bloom
Jon Embree
Jeff Campbell
 
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Buffnik’s rules were all in state players would have to sign with a power five team. So, no BYU, no Houston, no Central Florida.

Using that, the Florida, Texas, and California P5 teams would still be good, but probably slightly behind LSU and Georgia because there would be fewer teams to divide the pie.

Like Rutgers, the University of Maryland, as the lone P5 school in the state, would have a complete reversal of fortune, until the AD would find some way to screw it all up.
 
Assuming that all in-state talent would sign with an in-state P5 program, what programs would have a chance?

In CA, talent would be divided by 4 (USC, Cal, UCLA, Stanford). TX divided by 5 (UT, A&M, Baylor, TCU, TTU). FL by 3, GA and PA by 2, and states like OH and LA by 1. Etc.

What P5 programs would have a shot at a national title every year? Which would be in the mix every so often? Which would struggle to have winning seasons? Which may never have much of an opportunity for a winning season?
If we’re taking institutional popularity into account, I think USC has a shot at the NC every year. CA has so much talent that leaves the state, and USC is head and shoulders above their in-state brethren in the eyes of most recruits.

I think University of Hawaii would be crazy good. I also think schools like U of VA would get sneaky good. Most of the flyover states would be completely ****ed.
 
Buffnik’s rules were all in state players would have to sign with a power five team. So, no BYU, no Houston, no Central Florida.

Using that, the Florida, Texas, and California P5 teams would still be good, but probably slightly behind LSU and Georgia because there would be fewer teams to divide the pie.

Like Rutgers, the University of Maryland, as the lone P5 school in the state, would have a complete reversal of fortune, until the AD would find some way to screw it all up.
California would be tiered, though, with USC and Stanford leading the way.
 
After looking at the numbers for each state, Georgia and Georgia Tech would absolutely dominate. There is enough top end talent in that state with only two programs to be consistently competing at a high level each year. I think Texas, California, and Florida would spread out that talent too much. Probably depends on who picks up the top QB's in those states.
 
If we’re taking institutional popularity into account, I think USC has a shot at the NC every year. CA has so much talent that leaves the state, and USC is head and shoulders above their in-state brethren in the eyes of most recruits.

I think University of Hawaii would be crazy good. I also think schools like U of VA would get sneaky good. Most of the flyover states would be completely ****ed.

I could actually see VA Tech being pretty good. They would split with UVA, but a ton of talent comes out of the Newport News area, and they would reap in that... @hokiehead ; do you agree?
 
I could actually see VA Tech being pretty good. They would split with UVA, but a ton of talent comes out of the Newport News area, and they would reap in that... @hokiehead ; do you agree?
Possibly with a coaching change -- Fuente is currently being out-recruited by UVA and ODU.

However, under this hypothetical, I think most other ACC Coastal schools would see bigger improvement in recruiting than VT (Miami, GIT, UNC-CH, Duke are all in stronger recruiting states) so we could actually do worse in conference play.
 
ASU might be better if they actually just got to keep everyone that comes out of Phoenix.
 
Per Rivals rankings the University of Maryland would have 13 4 star incoming recruits this year. Unless, you think they have to split with Navy, but they'd still crush the like of the Arizona schools.
 
Per Rivals rankings the University of Maryland would have 13 4 star incoming recruits this year. Unless, you think they have to split with Navy, but they'd still crush the like of the Arizona schools.
The biggest sea change in terms of divisional power shifts would be in the Big10 East. Maryland and Rutgers would become serious powers - I'm having trouble coming up with any other schools whose fortunes would improve as much as theirs would. They would go from doormats to consistent playoff contenders.

Oregon's fall the other way would be equally as dramatic. Actually, in terms of divisions, the Pac-12 North would probably be the second most changed division, with Cal and Stanford being the odds on favorites every year, followed by the Washington Schools in the middle, and the Os bringing the 0s.

Limiting discussion to P5 schools, I would say the schools whose positions would most dramatically change from where they've recently been on the field are (note: this is biggest movement, not final results. A team that goes from 85 to 15 is going to be ranked higher than one that moves from 11 to 2.

Moving up:
1a. Rutgers
1b. Maryland
3. Georgia Tech
4. Pitt
Next would be a whole slew of schools that fit into one of two categories (or both): a. they suck a lot so almost anything would actually improve their recruiting or b. they'd be splitting with another P5 school in the state, limiting their ceiling - but they'd still improve quite a bit:
UVA & VTech (especially if you assume they split DC with MD), Arizona, Illinois, Texas Tech, Tennessee & Vanderbilt, Colorado (we'd have to score more than 60 a week to get to a bowl though).

Moving Down:
1. Oregon
2. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma
4. Okie lite
5. Washington
6. Iowa State
 
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