Last year before signing day (December 2010) I did a blog on the impact the move to the Pac-12 from the Big 12 might have on recruiting.
http://www.allbuffs.com/entry.php/95-Colorado-Football-Recruiting-Pac-12-Impact
I went through a bunch of databases for that to be able to make some predictions, and one of the
sources was spot on for this topic.
The School of Economics at Mercer University developed a prediction model for where football prospects would sign. Here's what I wrote up from that:
As they described their methodology:
The authors used statistical software developed by SAS along with data provided by Rivals.com (a national website dedicated to college football and recruiting) in the development of this model. The model was built on a database capturing characteristics and decisions of 3,395 recruited athletes for the three “recruiting seasons” between 2002 and 2004. On average, each player was choosing from among a group of 4 schools. A wide array of player and team level data were gathered for this task. Then, a special form of a probit model was developed to capture, to the best extent possible a statistical equation to capture the decision making process.
Then, over the next several years, they continually updated their model to improve their prediction accuracy. Every year from 2005 thru 2009, they have been correct on where the Rivals 250 prospects would sign -- with accuracy between 68%-73%. That means that about 30% of the time a prospect's decision is made based on things that the study cannot objectively quantify such as whether they liked a coach, are a legacy, like the uniforms, have a certain major, if the girls are pretty, etc. Those things are either subjective or the information wouldn't be available to the researchers.
So what did they learn?
Somewhat surprisingly, the following things don't matter (no statistical impact):
- school’s graduation rate
- the number of Bowl Championship Series (BCS) bowl appearances
- the current roster depth at the recruited player’s position
- the number of players from a specific college drafted by the NFL
- the number of national championships won by a particular program
Weird, huh?
These things do matter, though:
- Whether the athlete made an “official visit” to a specific college
- Whether the school is in a BCS conference
- The distance from the high school athlete’s hometown to a specific school
- Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school
- The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition
- The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years
- Whether the school is currently under a “bowl ban” for violating NCAA rules
- The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules (increases likelihood of signing)
- The size of the team’s stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity)
- Whether the school has an on-campus stadium
- The current age of the team’s stadium
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Obviously, a statistical prediction model can only deal with quantifiable data. Based on what I have seen from recruits over the years, some of the other thing that make a difference:
- Player's relationship with coaching staff
- Parents'/Advisors' relationship with coaching staff
- Job security of coaching staff
- How early the school offered
- How hard and consistently the school has recruited the prospect
- Friends who go or are going to the school
- Whether the school has a good reputation in a particular academic major
- Whether the player grew up a fan of the school
- How nice the facilities are
If it were me, all of that would be in the mix and it's a lot to consider. It's a tough choice. I'd probably start by eliminating all the schools that were in locations I didn't care for. Next, I'd eliminate the ones which didn't show the best earning potential from their degree programs I might be interested in. (Location was first, because if I loved a location there's a chance I'd want to build my adult life there and sometimes a degree that isn't as valuable nationally will have high value within the state due to networking opportunities.)
From there, for me it would probably be a mix of a lot of things (coaches, program, opinion of family/advisors, etc.) and just go with the place that "felt right"... and then I'd pick CU. :smile2: