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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo...lorado-state-big-12-coach-contracts/87565652/

"While mid-major programs like Boise State and Central Florida are praying the Big 12 doesn't pass them by, a school like CSU - an hour's drive north of Denver - has a real chance to become a full-fledged member."
So, CSU added in clauses that raises their coaches salaries if they become a member of a P5 conference. So what? Not sure why Matt Stephens believes that relevant here.
 
Hey, given the Big12 is so Texas centric and we know how they love Colorado.... It's mid-summer and they are cooking in Texas. Might FoCo look better (looking at long term) than say Memphis, Cincy, etc?
 
Hey, given the Big12 is so Texas centric and we know how they love Colorado.... It's mid-summer and they are cooking in Texas. Might FoCo look better (looking at long term) than say Memphis, Cincy, etc?
Memphis goes crazy for college football, they always have high ratings down there and there are good recruits there for football and basketball.
 
I think CSU has a decent shot - but god I hate Matt Stephens so much
 
Hey, given the Big12 is so Texas centric and we know how they love Colorado.... It's mid-summer and they are cooking in Texas. Might FoCo look better (looking at long term) than say Memphis, Cincy, etc?
I wonder if Mike Bohn being at Cincy helps or hurts their chances at the Big 12. On the one hand, he has experience in conference realignment, but that experience came in getting CU the hell out of the Big 12. There's some irony in him now being in a position where he'll want to get his school IN to that conference.
 
Ok pod boy. In this scenario, we don't have to actually play those guys every year, right? Just, like two per year.

This is a scenario I could grudgingly support. I really hate Nebraska, but I can admit it would be kind of fun to have that game again.
I bet if the Pac-12 was able to pitch NU, KU, OU, MU, they'd jump as long as the money was within range and as long as PACN could deliver national carriage.

I don't think Mizzou would be to enthusiastic about this but the other three might.

In the pod set-up it would mean a maximum of one trip per year to the not so great plains which would be reasonable.

Best thing about this is that we would get OU and NU which would strengthen the reputation of the conference and make it more valuable for media without having to deal with Texas.
 
UT couldn't possibly wield as much influence in the Pac-12 that they did in the SWC and ultimately, in the Big 12. That shouldn't be a concern. The concern should be that their desire to wield that much influence makes it a total non-starter that they would even consider moving to the Pac-12 without having that kind of influence.

This is the same reason they chose to stay in the Big 12 while MU, NU, aTm, and CU all bailed a few years back. When everyone else in the Big 12 was willing to become their bitch rather than have equal stature, this was a better near term outcome for them. Until they feel their near term existence is threatened, they will do everything in their power to make the Big 12 sustainable - it is the best possible outcome for them.
 
OU is tied at the hip with UT, IMO. I believe they realize their recruiting power in Texas is directly tied to the Red River Rivalry. If that ends, OU's recruiting will diminish on par with NU's recruiting in Texas. They could still pull some kids, but it wouldn't be the same.

Because of this, I believe the only move OU would make without UT would be the SEC East. Then they play the Aggies every year as a substitute for UT.
 
Reading lots of chatter from Ok Lite that they believe they are in the power position and need to decide if they should stay, go with OU to Big 10 or to SEC.

Don't know if it's delusional or accurate, but they seem the believe they are joined at the hip with OU.
 
Hey, given the Big12 is so Texas centric and we know how they love Colorado.... It's mid-summer and they are cooking in Texas. Might FoCo look better (looking at long term) than say Memphis, Cincy, etc?


The Texans love Colorado card is a non-starter.

A/C is affordable to the masses in Texas these days. And unlike Colorado, those Texas indoor practice facilities aren't built with the winter in mind.

Plus theTexans who can afford trips to Aspen, Vail, and the San Juans to escape the Texas summer heat are rarely the same families you see represented on recruiting profiles.
 
Financially there is not a reason for Nebraska to leave the Big 10 nor for Mizzou to leave the SEC. KU is not an attractive football program and I am no sure their basketball program makes up for that - football is the driver with TV contracts. If the PAC 12 expands it would most likely be with G5 schools and right now that is not attractive except in a few cases because you will end up with more dilution of revenues. If you could poach OU, OSU, KU and KSU from the Big 12 you would have your best scenario. Texas is attractive to TV so financially they make sense but everything else about them is a cancer.
 
I know our focus has been about schools that add value to the Pac, but besides Tex-ass getting access to a satellite campus in Houston, what value does Houston bring to the Big XII? I understand the large TV market, but the Kansas and Okie schools used to have a recruiting advantage over TCU until they were added, and the same can be said for Houston. Why add another school from a state you largely control already? If I were any Big XII school outside of UT, I would vote no to Houston.

What am I missing?
 
I know our focus has been about schools that add value to the Pac, but besides Tex-ass getting access to a satellite campus in Houston, what value does Houston bring to the Big XII? I understand the large TV market, but the Kansas and Okie schools used to have a recruiting advantage over TCU until they were added, and the same can be said for Houston. Why add another school from a state you largely control already? If I were any Big XII school outside of UT, I would vote no to Houston.

What am I missing?

This is the Big Texas 12 Conference. What Texas wants they usually get, other that OU and maybe Okie Lite nobody else is going to say no to them.
 
Confused by this. Big 10 makes a lot more than Big 12. Do the Nubs miss playing KU, KSU and ISU that much?

http://thebiglead.com/2016/07/26/nebraska-rejoining-the-big-12-would-be-absurd/

JwuUUmUY_normal.jpg
Tim Montemayor @TheMontyShow
Also told #Nebraska put out feelers last week to see if the door was open to a return to the #BIGXII …no indication how it was received
2:10 PM - 25 Jul 2016

What if...

NU left the B1G...

And joined OU, OSU, and Houston as they join the Pac12.

Wow.
 
OU is tied at the hip with UT, IMO. I believe they realize their recruiting power in Texas is directly tied to the Red River Rivalry. If that ends, OU's recruiting will diminish on par with NU's recruiting in Texas. They could still pull some kids, but it wouldn't be the same.

Because of this, I believe the only move OU would make without UT would be the SEC East. Then they play the Aggies every year as a substitute for UT.

I think the knot is pretty loose at this point in time. The media and fans (primarily okie lites) want to stay married.

I still think the boomers and the whorns outta bolt for the $ec while they can. Here's a little divisional and pod (just 4 nik) fun - imagine if you will:

$ec west

bad lands pod
Tejas
A&M
Oklahoma
Arkansas

Swamp pod
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi state
Mizzery

$ec east

Bootleggers pod
Alabama
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

Nascar pod
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky




 
I think the knot is pretty loose at this point in time. The media and fans (primarily okie lites) want to stay married.

I still think the boomers and the whorns outta bolt for the $ec while they can. Here's a little divisional and pod (just 4 nik) fun - imagine if you will:

$ec west

bad lands pod
Tejas
A&M
Oklahoma
Arkansas

Swamp pod
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi state
Mizzery

$ec east

Bootleggers pod
Alabama
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

Nascar pod
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky
Why would UT want to fight that kind of competition with less influence when they can stay in the Big 12 where 3/4 of the schools are just happy to be there? Until their existence as a Top 10 program going forward is threatened, they will do everything in their power to make the Big 12 stay "on par" with the P5 conferences.

If their existence as a Top 10 program going forward is threatened, they will go to the conference that is a combination of:

1) The highest bidder
2) Provides the greatest opportunity to influence

If we could get UT to accept equal revenue sharing to join a Pac 16 with 4 pods, it would be a no brainer. However, the more I thought this over, the more I realized the possibility of that happening is a single digit percentage at best.
 
Wonder if the Pac 12 essentially telling OU no when they wanted to join a couple of years back will bite the conference in the butt.
 
Wonder if the Pac 12 essentially telling OU no when they wanted to join a couple of years back will bite the conference in the butt.

That was a dumb move. I understand that Okie Lite brings no value addition if you're already getting OU except for increasing the volume of games and that they also have an academic reputation with which no existing member wanted affiliation... but it would have put the Pac-14 in a much more powerful position. Of course, there's also a lot out there that says OU/OSU weren't committed to joining the Pac but were only shopping for an offer that would give them more leverage within the Big 12. So, I can also see why it was easy for the Pac-12 presidents to vote "no" based on not wanting to get used & rejected when they were on the fence about making those additions even if they'd been sure to join.

A question that's actually a little more interesting to me: if Boise State and BYU are seen as so valuable by other conferences (and SDSU, too, but just way too far away), why do we think this can never happen for Pac-12 expansion?

I realize we are talking about markets, but in terms of what matters within the footprint the Pac-12 doesn't quite own its markets.

It's hard for me to accept that SDSU + Boise State doesn't make the Pac-12 stronger. No one's going to 16 yet, so that would be a simple add. Even at a smaller piece of the pie, they'd make more than in the MWC. I know there are the issues with SDSU on the Cal State vs the UC system. There's also the issue of their football stadium if Qualcomm goes away. And the market being pretty much a Pac market already. With Boise State, I know there are the issues with market size and academics.

I believe that both of these schools are answering the main questions. SDSU expanding with a west campus in Mission Valley with plans for a new football stadium there. Boise State is about to complete a 5-year strategic plan that focused on very much improving its academic profile, adding new doctoral programs and cutting its associate's degrees. Both areas are growing like crazy. The last thing the Pac-12 needs is those schools in the Big 12. I think they hurt the conference enough as it is by diluting the conference's national reputation as THE conference for the west. Hell, if we asked sports fans in the east what the main programs are in the west, a lot of people would name Boise State and SDSU ahead of some Pac-12 schools (along with BYU and UNLV).

In my heart, I really want a western conference and to leave no doubt or openings to the market. And while I don't think it's the most lucrative short-term plan (far from it), I do believe that long-term it would be the way to go. These states and metros are growing.

I look at the following, and I just don't see what's wrong with the idea of doing what it takes to absolutely own a footprint that includes CA, NM, AZ, UT, ID, NV, CA, OR and WA (the following was created from a middle projection scenario from THIS REPORT):

kcvvajv.png


Maybe we should stop worrying so much about what everyone else is doing, be true to the Pac DNA*, and make this conference as strong as it can be while being true to itself. The Pac is not the farm belt. The Pac is not Texas. It is the Mountain and Pacific zones of the United States. Own it. Make it awesome.

(*When I see a successful businesses fail as they mature and grow, the main mistake seems to be that they drift away from their DNA. Focus is a good thing for the health of an organization.)
 
Why would UT want to fight that kind of competition with less influence when they can stay in the Big 12 where 3/4 of the schools are just happy to be there? Until their existence as a Top 10 program going forward is threatened, they will do everything in their power to make the Big 12 stay "on par" with the P5 conferences.

If their existence as a Top 10 program going forward is threatened, they will go to the conference that is a combination of:

1) The highest bidder
2) Provides the greatest opportunity to influence

If we could get UT to accept equal revenue sharing to join a Pac 16 with 4 pods, it would be a no brainer. However, the more I thought this over, the more I realized the possibility of that happening is a single digit percentage at best.

Because, I think uTerus sees the writing on the wall. If the Big integer conference doesn't make a big addition, it's probably going away. And independent is a real dicey move.

That means they'll sell to the highest bidder. In my opinion that is, and will be, the $ec.

Texas would expand their brand east to greater population hubs. The donghorn network, already a bastard child of espin, would continue in some (small, but burnt orange egotistical) way. They would appease their fans by renewing old swc rivalries with atm and arky, hereby potentially seeing another increase in booster dollars.

I hate both tejass and the $ec, so I guess that makes them perfect for each other.
 
Nik is assuming the Pac-12 has any sort of DNA. The "DNA" was the Pac-8.

It was. But I think geography and regionality are still important with conferences. The Pac grew in a way that made sense. I'm not sure that doing flyovers of western states and major metros in order to get pieces of central markets is anywhere close to the same thing as moving from the coast to grab the growing but unaffiliated mountain region, first through Arizona and then with Utah and Colorado.

Also, I found something interesting about US time zone populations. This was based on the 2014 Census.

Eastern Standard Time Zone: 150.2 million (47.1%)
Central Standard Time Zone: 92.3 million (29.0%)
Mountain Standard Time Zone: 21.3 million (6.7%)
Pacific Standard Time Zone: 53.0 million (16.6%)

If you look at the Mountain and Pacific zones, combined they're about 75 million people. If we have 5 major conferences, dominating a market of 75 million is very competitive with splitting 240 million people 4 ways. It's even competitive with those 240 million split 3 ways.

The Pac-12 should be very seriously looking at this and asking itself what schools in its zone would do the most for the brand on consolidating its territory and drawing more interest from the rest of the US. I think the answer to that is BYU, Boise State and SDSU with it being tough to find a 4th that really moves the needle within the footprint or outside of it (unless we're talking basketball). As I said before, I think I'd go to 14 through Boise State & SDSU pretty quickly.
 
Because, I think uTerus sees the writing on the wall. If the Big integer conference doesn't make a big addition, it's probably going away. And independent is a real dicey move.

That means they'll sell to the highest bidder. In my opinion that is, and will be, the $ec.

Texas would expand their brand east to greater population hubs. The donghorn network, already a bastard child of espin, would continue in some (small, but burnt orange egotistical) way. They would appease their fans by renewing old swc rivalries with atm and arky, hereby potentially seeing another increase in booster dollars.

I hate both tejass and the $ec, so I guess that makes them perfect for each other.
Naw - it has to be much more obvious than the current situation. They will suck that teat until it is dry -> then review their list of options.
 
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