I didn't do the "Bubble Watch" thread over Xmas break like normal this season because I believed in the goal of a regular season conference championship and didn't want to put doubt into the universe. Well, we're eliminated from that consideration being 3 back of Arizona with 3 games left and them having the tiebreaker. So I'll do a modified "Bubble Watch" in this thread to lay things out without diverting from the NET thread which has been fantastic.
1st part is our schedule with opponent records. The thing to keep in mind with NET is that it weights things heavily toward the "Quad" your opponent falls into based on their resume and whether you played them at Home, Away or at a Neutral site. Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins are what build your resume and turn the heads of the selection committee since they show whether or not you can beat the types of teams that will be in the tournament. Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses (or having a weak strength of schedule from playing too many of them) are what hurt your resume since they show whether your team is reliably good. It seems like a lot of bracketology pundits stress that Q1 and somewhat Q2 resume should be valued much higher because the tournament is about who you've shown you can beat, not who you've shown you can lose to.
Something else the committee pays some attention to is injuries. If you won or lost games while not at full strength, that's supposed to be considered as something that gives a bump to your selection or seeding while having key player(s) out from a late season injury which will cause the player to miss the tournament is supposed to downgrade your seeding.
NET rating quantifies the strength of your overall record. As mentioned elsewhere on this board, if a power conference team has a Top 40 NET then that has made the team a virtual lock for the tournament. CU should be in great shape right now except for a couple things: 1) our Buffs have not done well at all against Quad 1 opponents; and 2) the Pac-12 is not very good this year (maybe just a 2-bid league) and with the conference collapsing there's no political pressure to get more conference representation.
That's the background. Here's the resume.
CU Schedule & Results
Colorado Summary
The other thing that gets looked at a lot is KenPom. That describes how you rate relative to other teams on different factors of play that lead to winning, then your record and how much good or bad luck you may have had to get to that record, and all of that related to the schedule difficulty. Of note on that with CU is that we've got a better offense than defense this year. As of 2/29, our O is rated #23 and our D is rated #60. We're also almost completely neutral on Luck - so we are what our record says we are this season.
Currently, the general prediction for CU's Dance positioning is firmly on the Bubble. Somewhere in that 11-seed play-in round or among the top snubs.
Last, some links:
NET Rankings (updated each morning): https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
KenPom Rankings (updated close to real time): https://kenpom.com/
ESPN Bracketoloty (since it gets talked about the most): https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...logy-2024-march-madness-men-field-predictions
CBS Bracketology (next most referenced since they televise and Jerry Palm is pretty respected): https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Bracket Matrix (compiles & amalgamates all the bracketology sites): http://www.bracketmatrix.com/#google_vignette
Bracketometry (ranks as the #1 bracket accuracy over the past 5 years): https://www.bracketometry.com/
1-3-1 Sports (rates as the 2nd best bracket accuracy over the past 5 years): https://131sports.com/
1st part is our schedule with opponent records. The thing to keep in mind with NET is that it weights things heavily toward the "Quad" your opponent falls into based on their resume and whether you played them at Home, Away or at a Neutral site. Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins are what build your resume and turn the heads of the selection committee since they show whether or not you can beat the types of teams that will be in the tournament. Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses (or having a weak strength of schedule from playing too many of them) are what hurt your resume since they show whether your team is reliably good. It seems like a lot of bracketology pundits stress that Q1 and somewhat Q2 resume should be valued much higher because the tournament is about who you've shown you can beat, not who you've shown you can lose to.
Something else the committee pays some attention to is injuries. If you won or lost games while not at full strength, that's supposed to be considered as something that gives a bump to your selection or seeding while having key player(s) out from a late season injury which will cause the player to miss the tournament is supposed to downgrade your seeding.
NET rating quantifies the strength of your overall record. As mentioned elsewhere on this board, if a power conference team has a Top 40 NET then that has made the team a virtual lock for the tournament. CU should be in great shape right now except for a couple things: 1) our Buffs have not done well at all against Quad 1 opponents; and 2) the Pac-12 is not very good this year (maybe just a 2-bid league) and with the conference collapsing there's no political pressure to get more conference representation.
That's the background. Here's the resume.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
CU Schedule & Results
| Opponent | Location | Result | Opponent Record | NET Rank | Game Quad |
| Towson | Home | Win (75-57) | 17-12 | 156 | Q3 |
| Grambling | Home | Win (95-63) | 14-13 | 290 | Q4 |
| Milwaukee | Home | Win (106-79) | 16-14 | 241 | Q4 |
| Richmond | Neutral | Win (64-59) | 21-7 | 70 | Q2 |
| Florida State | Neutral | Loss (71-77 OT) | 15-13 | 90 | Q2 |
| Iona | Home | Win (85-68) | 13-14 | 188 | Q4 |
| Colorado State | Road | Loss (83-88) | 20-9 | 30 | Q1 |
| Pepperdine | Home | Win (91-66) | 12-18 | 238 | Q4 |
| Miami | Neutral | Win (90-63) | 15-14 | 88 | Q2 |
| Northern Colorado | Home | Win (90-68) | 17-11 | 184 | Q4 |
| Utah Tech | Home | Win (98-71) | 10-17 | 274 | Q4 |
| Washington | Home | Win (73-69) | 15-13 | 71 | Q2 |
| Washington State | Home | Win (74-67) | 21-7 | 36 | Q2 |
| Arizona | Away | Loss (50-97) | 22-6 | 3 | Q1 |
| Arizona State | Away | Loss (73-76) | 14-15 | 125 | Q2 |
| California | Away | Loss (78-82) | 13-16 | 115 | Q2 |
| USC | Home | Win (68-58) | 11-16 | 102 | Q3 |
| Oregon | Home | Win (86-70) | 19-9 | 63 | Q2 |
| Oregon State | Home | Win (90-57) | 12-17 | 161 | Q4 |
| Washington | Away | Win (98-81) | 15-13 | 71 | Q1 |
| Washington State | Away | Loss (69-78) | 21-7 | 36 | Q1 |
| Utah | Away | Loss (68-73) | 16-11 | 53 | Q1 |
| Arizona State | Home | Win (82-70) | 14-15 | 125 | Q3 |
| Arizona | Home | Loss (79-99) | 22-6 | 3 | Q1 |
| UCLA | Away | Loss (60-64) | 14-13 | 112 | Q2 |
| USC | Away | Win (92-89 OT) | 11-16 | 102 | Q2 |
| Utah | Home | Win (89-65) | 16-11 | 53 | Q2 |
| California | Home | Win (88-78) | 13-16 | 115 | Q3 |
| Stanford | Home | 116 | Q3 | ||
| Oregon | Away | 63 | Q1 | ||
| Oregon State | Away | 161 | Q3 | ||
| Pac-12 Tourney (TBD) | |||||
| Pac-12 Tourney (TBD) | |||||
| Pac-12 Tourney (TBD) |
Colorado Summary
| Record | Home | Away | Neutral | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | NET Rank | KenPom Rank |
| 19-9 | 15-1 | 1-5 | 2-1 | 1-5 | 7-4 | 4-0 | 7-0 | 29 | 31 |
The other thing that gets looked at a lot is KenPom. That describes how you rate relative to other teams on different factors of play that lead to winning, then your record and how much good or bad luck you may have had to get to that record, and all of that related to the schedule difficulty. Of note on that with CU is that we've got a better offense than defense this year. As of 2/29, our O is rated #23 and our D is rated #60. We're also almost completely neutral on Luck - so we are what our record says we are this season.
Currently, the general prediction for CU's Dance positioning is firmly on the Bubble. Somewhere in that 11-seed play-in round or among the top snubs.
Last, some links:
NET Rankings (updated each morning): https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
KenPom Rankings (updated close to real time): https://kenpom.com/
ESPN Bracketoloty (since it gets talked about the most): https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/s...logy-2024-march-madness-men-field-predictions
CBS Bracketology (next most referenced since they televise and Jerry Palm is pretty respected): https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Bracket Matrix (compiles & amalgamates all the bracketology sites): http://www.bracketmatrix.com/#google_vignette
Bracketometry (ranks as the #1 bracket accuracy over the past 5 years): https://www.bracketometry.com/
1-3-1 Sports (rates as the 2nd best bracket accuracy over the past 5 years): https://131sports.com/
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