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A quick look at Arizona...

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by BlackNGold, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

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    This actually is a little better match up for CU at least against their offense. Denker is a true "game manager", he is not a QB that can put the team on his back and win the game. He is not an overly great passer and Arizona is hurting at WR. UA tends to be more balanced in the their attack, using the run to set up the pass. Denker does not have a lot of game experience but he is a senior. He seems to be picking up the reads in Rich Rods zone read offense and has been an effective runner. The center piece of UA's offense is Ka'Deem Carey who is (as everyone knows) one of the top runners in the country. He had over 300 yards last year against CU. If the defense cannot stop Carey then this game will be a blow out. But for once we are not facing a high flying passing offense. Rich Rod likes to play fast on offense, I look for him to try to run 85 plays against CU.

    The UA defense is fairly good, they like to rush the passer hard. I expect with Sefo starting he is going to see a few different blitzes, CU will have to get the running game going and keep out of 3rd and long. AU brings in their SWAT defense in obvious passing situations. The defense does not have a lot of standouts but does have good players.

    The UA special teams have not been very good. One of the big sore points.

    We will see if UA got momentum off of the Utah victory. It is a long shot to beat the Wildcats but with a few breaks CU could pull an upset. I do not think the Wildcats will be looking past CU or taking them for granted. The team is looking to get their season on track with a lot of tough games left on the schedule they are looking for wins where ever they can get them.
     
  2. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    If we control Carey, we win. It is pretty much as simple as that.
     
  3. buffsyko

    buffsyko Club Member Club Member

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    CU hasn't been stopping the run much either. Remember, denker has played against fbs defenses, he's facing a defense that makes every qb look like a heisman.
     
  4. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Three games into the P12 season, UA is 1-2 and looks like they belong on the field with their P12 brethren, even in losses. CU has been blown out three times in a row in the P12 this year, and aside form the first quarter of the Oregon game, really hasn't looked like they belonged on the field with their P12 brethren. Looking at it another way, UA has been averaging 23 ppg in their P12 games and CU 15. While UA is probably bottom end of the P12 S, anybody thinking a chance at a CU victory is anything other than a long shot is pretty misguided. Especially since CU hasn't been able to contain any P12 offense, giving up an average of 609 yds/game. CU's D only held two teams under 300 yds., both CSU's. The goats had 295 yds btw. Anything is possible, but CU would need to play better than they have all year, for a whole game, and get a break or two to pull off the W. Fire away.
     
  5. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    We won't. He is a great running back in a great rushing offense.
     
  6. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    That's the spirit.
     
  7. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    I heartily disagree with the bolded portion. The Buffs were in a dog fight at OSU for all of the 1st half, after the long 3 week layoff. OSU only led 10-3 until seconds were remaing before half time, and the defense was doing a great job in the first half, but simply wore out because the offense couldn't muster a yard.
     
  8. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Road vs. home
    @Oregon State (29), Oregon (3), @Arizona State (9) > @Washington (16), @USC (38), Utah (35)
     
  9. CUFan

    CUFan Welcome back Club Member

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    I think we are setting ourselves up for disappointment if we don't assume we will get slaughtered. It seems to me the odds of UA slaughtering us are probably much higher than us squeaking out a W.
     
  10. Hugegroove

    Hugegroove Club Member Club Member

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    When the blocking breaks down, Sefo will need to use his wheels to make something out of nothing to keep drives/momentum going. Spreading the ball around wouldn't hurt either. After seeing what Adkins did last week hopefully Powell can step it up too.
     
  11. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    I understand, but the Beavs had 49% of their yards in the first half and were moving the ball at will. Their 2 TO's in the first half were what kept the game close, not really CU's play. I know, I know CU forced the TO's. Chicken/egg.
     
  12. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

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    CU will be starting a true Frosh QB who will only be in his second start and the first one was against a poor quality opponent. That is not a formula for big success.
     
  13. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Success has to start somewhere right? Might as well be now. Az is a step down from the first 3 Pac-12 teams we faced. Should be a much better measuring stick for us.
     
  14. BuffUp

    BuffUp W.T.T.F. Club Member

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    Would love to be positive here, but... CU is going to get beat by 30 points. Our d has not proven they can stop the run or pass, our offense has proven they can not stay on the field with opposing teams.
    Our D could not slow down a small and slow buccaneer team in the first half (running the option). Carey kills us
     
  15. BuffNut99

    BuffNut99 Club Member Club Member

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    I don't think we'll have to worry about attendance for Arizona. Homecoming, good evening slot, plus BLACKOUT. Students will show up.
     
  16. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Maybe. But then again, CU is averaging giving up a half century of points in the P12 a game (actually 51.7 ppg). UA gives up 31 a game. In short, it is hard to find a metric other than altitude where CU is ranked higher than UA.....
     
  17. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    Also, it's hot here.

    Semper Gumby
     
  18. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Well let's look at the offenses each team has faced for conference play...

    COLORADO
    OSUUOASU
    Passing YardsRushing YardsPoints ForPoints AgainstPassing YardsRushing YardsPoints ForPoints AgainstPassing YardsRushing YardsPoints ForPoints Against
    Team Average44273.744.128.4310.7332.457.617.3332177.145.426.7
    CU Result420.0120.044.017.0349.0406.057.016.0256.0169.054.013.0
    Difference-22.046.3-0.1-11.438.373.6-0.6-1.3-76.0-8.18.6-13.7
    NotesHeisman contender (Mannion) and the #1 passing offense in the nation was held lower than there season averageHeisman contender (Mariota) and has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation that has put up at least 57 points in four of their six BCS gamesNations leader in touchdowns (Grice) and have scored 50+ in three of there six BCS games, including three in their last four
    ARIZONA
    UWUSCUU
    Passing YardsRushing YardsPoints ForPoints AgainstPassing YardsRushing YardsPoints ForPoints AgainstPassing YardsRushing YardsPoints ForPoints Against
    Team Average270.0211.933.624.6206.7190.125.421.6260.4188.935.126.7
    UA Result165.0244.031.013.0297.0249.038.031.0157.0172.024.035.0
    Difference-105.032.1-2.6-11.690.358.912.69.4-103.4-16.9-11.18.3
    Notes#5 rusher in the nation but have struggled heavily in their last three games on defenseVery talented team but not much depth and not much at QB, they have a nice staple of backs thoughWilson has shown flashes but he turns it over way too much
     
  19. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Now Mannion is a Heisman contender? Uhh, okay. Let's see what happens this weekend.
     
  20. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    He certainly won't win it but his stats are absolutely nothing to scoff at, he's been lighting everyone up this year.

    229 for 334 2992 Yards 68.6 Comp% 29 Tds 3 Ints
     
  21. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    those stats aren't really making a point, are they? besides the obvious.
     
  22. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Mannion's stats? Nope

    The team stats? Sort of. The chart is more to show the differences in offensive fire power that we have faced versus the offenses that Arizona has gone against.
     
  23. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    oh. ok. what's your great point here? seen the sagarin ratings? yikes.

    Also, check the drive point efficiencies here. Everything points to zona being a much, much better team.

    http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/10/21/4859668/drive-point-efficiency-chart-thru-week-8
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2013
  24. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    While his stats are impressive, you are the only person I have heard say he is even a contender. They don't even have odds on him. Well, at least none I can find. They do have them for Lache Seastrunk and TJ Yeldon, though, so I would say the net has been cast far and wide for Heisman gambling dough...and nobody in Vegas thinks Mannion is going to draw a nickel. Not that that is going to change much Saturday...


    I do applaud your statistical analysis however. Tell me, How does Arizona State taking their foot off the pedal at half time figure in? Maybe if they kept their foot on the gas they would have scored 75.

    Why don't we just wait and see what happens on Saturday?
     
  25. BuffClass90

    BuffClass90 Banned BANNED

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    If we play an error free game and catch a few breaks, we win. I'm guessing we don't cover the spread though.
     
  26. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    I'm not trying to say we are a better team than Arizona, we aren't. I am expecting us to be competitive at home though in a night game (which seems to carry more emotion than normal games).

    And the Sagarin rankings, they support my point of us playing a tougher conference schedule :thumbsup:, but yes I realize the ranking discrepancies between us and Zona.
     
  27. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    I think that is the most reasonable hope for this game. If, and I do mean if, the Buffs play the best ball they have all year, and catch a couple of breaks, they could pull the upset. But I think that is pretty unlikely. They could also fall apart and get run again....
     
  28. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Arizona is our bitch. We win easily.
     
  29. FightCu1414

    FightCu1414 Fifth year Senior Club Member

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    I hate to be negative, but the teams stats we have played vs. Arizona is somewhat inflated because they played us...
     
  30. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    They'd actually be deflated since teams took their foot of the gas pedal, but Oregon and ASU have done that to multiple opponents this season
     

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