Let me apply a football recruiting perspective and see if the basketball guys feel like it applies.
Currently, Embree is looking at a senior class of 26 scholarship players. Due to attrition that occurs, he can sign 28-30 guys (counting back 3-5 to 2011 through early enrollees).
Embree is also looking at a junior class of only 11 players, which could go lower if there's attrition.
A max recruiting class for a year in football is 25. The full scholarship allocation is 85.
Considering redshirt years, balancing classes is an inexact science. Adding in attrition rates (injuries, transfers, etc.), a program will usually have more freshmen than seniors for a balanced roster.
Assuming that you might lose 2 guys per year on average from each recruiting class, a balanced football roster might be:
Seniors: 17
Juniors: 19
Sophomores: 21
Freshmen (active): 23
Freshmen (redshirting): 5
Each year, if averages hold and things were balanced, a coach would bring in 23 players (17 players plus 2 lost to attrition from the 3 other classes).
If Embree was focused on balancing classes over time, he might consider only bringing in 25 players for the 2012 class and having 5 guys banked for 2013. This, with expected attrition, would give him an opportunity to sign 20 in that next class and start balancing the roster out.
No one is suggesting he does this. The idea is to bring in as much talent as possible as soon as possible so long as everyone he signs is a guy he believes will help the program win.
In basketball, with less redshirting, the ideal is to balance the 13 scholarships as follows:
Seniors: 3
Juniors: 3
Sophs: 3
Frosh: 4
Our situation in 2012 (assuming no redshirts or attrition) is:
Seniors: 0
Juniors: 5 (Adams, Mills, Roberson, Sharpe, Tunks)
Sophs: 3 (Booker, Dinwiddie, Cain)
Frosh: 5 (Gordon, Jenkins, Johnson, Scott, Talton)
I'm assuming Cain earns his scholarship back.
Why is there more emphasis on banking scholarships in basketball with many of our experts?
Doesn't it make more sense for Tad to sign as many guys as he can who he believes will help us win when he has room to sign them?
Wouldn't it make more sense to use redshirts over banking scholarships (better practices, insurance against injury, win now) than to bank and hope?
Here's one realistic hypothetical on how Tad could manage our current roster to get class balance:
Cain plays in 2011 and earns scholarship.
Mills redshirts in 2011.
Dre plays well enough to enter the 2013 draft (after junior year).
Two of our 5 freshman redshirt in 2012 (let's assume this goes by the scouting service ratings).
That would make 2013 look as follows:
Seniors: 3 (Adams, Sharpe, Tunks)
Juniors: 4 (Booker, Cain, Dinwiddie, Mills)
Sophs: 3 (Gordon, Johnson, Scott)
Frosh: 2 (Jenkins, Talton)
That would total 12 players and we'd have 1 scholarship opening for the spring signing period if Dre entered the NBA draft. Total class balance in this case.
Does this make sense?